Wrapping Up

Sat, Jul 21, 2012 - 12:23pm

The Turd is wrapping up his relaxation extravaganza this weekend and he'll be back at his post bright and early on Monday. Until then, here's some stuff for the weekend.

First of all, some charts. Let's start with the metals. Both have flat-lined, which is interesting because a flat-line usually precedes some type of dramatic move, either up or down. We see this sometimes on the short-term charts. We rarely see this play out over days on the hourly charts but here we are. My personal feeling is that we are very close to a significant break OUT and UP. We'll go into more detail on this on Monday.

And you should probably listen to this:

EXCLUSIVE- Bill Murphy's London Source: "Big Gold & Silver Moves Coming in August"

And the grains are, quite literally, ON FIRE. Though they are susceptible to a sharp pullback here, the forecast isn't getting any better. And it's still July. Yikes. Here's the latest forecast for Kansas City, Missouri. Right in the middle of corn and soybean country.

And here are your weekly charts showing new all-time highs in both corn and beans. The DAG, which we first discussed here a few weeks ago near $9, is closing in on $15, too.

The latest CoT was kind of a bummer. For the reporting week, gold rose $9 and silver rose 44c. In the face of that, The Gold Cartel added over 6000 new net shorts and The Evil Empire added just over 1000 new net short in silver. Not a disaster but not real encouraging, either. The only positive in the report is in the LargeSpecShortSheep category for silver where the LSSS added another 1,123 gross shorts. This brings their total up to over 20,000 at 20,775 and lowers the LargeSpec net long ratio to just 1.37:1. Again, for perspective, on 4/5/11, the LargeSpec net long ratio was 4.04:1 based upon 48,890 longs and just 12,105 shorts.

Three items of reading material for you. First, this interesting piece from John Aziz. It's worth considering. https://azizonomics.com/2012/07/21/why-is-the-fed-not-printing-like-crazy/

Next, Detlev Schlichter has written another excellent article: https://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/07/happy-interventionists-the-economists-attack-on-your-property/

And, finally, some interesting perspective from KWN's "London Trader". Note that there are no price targets or forecasts. Just a simple and concise analysis of demand fundamentals. https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/20_London_Trader_-_The_LBMA_Gold_Price_Fixing_Scheme_Is_Over.html

OK, that's all for now. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend and I look forward to getting back to "business as usual" on Monday.


p.s. When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/conspiracy-theories. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 21, 2012 - 6:43pm

Krugman has no idea what and

Krugman has no idea what and how went on in reality, neither in Estonia, nor Latvia, after housing bubble was multiplied by crisis exported from the USA . E.g in Latvia, the total drop in GDP was 24%. But, as at least 15% of that came from bubble pushed by Nordic banks. I would have preferred devaluation in Latvia if the banks paid for it too. They engaged into predatory lending into countries where people did not even know what taking debt means, as in Soviet Union getting loan was difficult and rare, since loan then would come from the state, but in Soviet Union it was the government only that routinely forced long term bonds on population and then devaluated the currency in the middle, like in 1961, when 1 decimal point was removed from rouble, so the value of those bonds went down 10 times.

But suffice to say, without govt debt, Estonia is well prepared for the next wave of crisis, coming soon. The biggest risk still is and remains Russia's growing imperial ambitions in the time of weakening West.

Our countries have always historically been small change money between Russia and Germany. Wonder whom did we prefer, even if both were bloodsuckers?

Jul 21, 2012 - 6:46pm
I Run Bartertown
Jul 21, 2012 - 6:55pm


I was in Romania during the change from 'old Lei' to 'new Lei'.

1:10,000, both in circulation, similar looking

It was strange, and I can say now that I didn't understand all of the implications and causes. But I may have tipped a waitress enough to retire.

Jul 21, 2012 - 7:03pm

I Run Bartertown

The final devaluation of ruble, which took place already after regaining of independence, in 1993, reduced my relatives Soviet ruble debt in ratio 200:1.

In 1990, I went to Sweden to work as a cleaner for 2 months. My friend took all 2 month salary -living expenses back to Latvia (around 3000 USD), and bought a 1600 m2 land with a small house on it in Riga, the capital, in a place which is now over the street from the USA embassy. Dangerous place (think of all terrorists driving loaded trucks around) , but he does not live any more there. The value of the plot during housing bubble peak in 2007 was 200 000 USD, and it was very liquid.

Basically, in 1990, I made my monthly salary in Latvia every day I worked as a cleaner in Sweden. So in 2 months 40 month salary. If only we knew better than where to invest. I bought a car and successfully crashed it into oblivion within 2 years. Old car then cost half of what the land plot I mentioned did.

So, Your tip might have helped the lady a lot.

QE to infinity
Jul 21, 2012 - 7:03pm


Ivars, how is the economic situation in Latvia now? A couple of years ago people seemed to be getting out in droves (those who hadn't gotten out earlier :)), has it got better?

Jul 21, 2012 - 7:04pm

Miners @ adrock

I own each of these---all at underwater prices. You may wish to consider @ lower prices than currently trading as I believe general Market will tank this fall. However I think PM miners will be first to recover. But then again, if I am so smart, what am I doing here trying to learn. Good luck and good fortune!

Eldorado Gold Franco Nevada Endeavor Silver First Majestic Alexco Almaden

Jul 21, 2012 - 7:05pm

Take out your false teeth mama

I wanna suck on your gums. (J Geils)

It's the weekend-forget about the drought and heat for just a while.

Breaking new ground here, can't ever remember a J Geils vid here let alone a 3 Stooges one.

Buy the damn tractor!

The Three Stooges in ,"Whammer Jammer".
Jul 21, 2012 - 7:09pm

QE to infinity

About 100 000 ( 5% of population) have left and last year sent back home about 1/10th of state budget via official ways.

It is still tough compared with 2007, but if you have a job/business, things are improving slowly-export driven as internal devaluation was done, more severe than in Estonia. Last 12 month growth is around 6 %, inflation 4%. Nobody takes or gives loans any more, practically. Deleveraging by all who can afford it.

QE to infinity
Jul 21, 2012 - 7:14pm

Miners @ adrock

Casey Research recommend four miners as the safest bet: Frano Nevada, Yamana, Eldorado, First Majestic.

They also recommend Endeavor Silver, Silvercorp, Goldcorp, Royal Gold, Randgold, Alamos Gold, Agnico Eagle, Newmont. That's all large and mid-tier producers, don't know about their recommendation on juniors.

QE to infinity
Jul 21, 2012 - 7:17pm


Glad it's getting better, even if slowly. Growth rate above inflation - that's good.

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
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Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

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Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

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12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
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12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
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