Wrapping Up

364
Sat, Jul 21, 2012 - 12:23pm

The Turd is wrapping up his relaxation extravaganza this weekend and he'll be back at his post bright and early on Monday. Until then, here's some stuff for the weekend.

First of all, some charts. Let's start with the metals. Both have flat-lined, which is interesting because a flat-line usually precedes some type of dramatic move, either up or down. We see this sometimes on the short-term charts. We rarely see this play out over days on the hourly charts but here we are. My personal feeling is that we are very close to a significant break OUT and UP. We'll go into more detail on this on Monday.

And you should probably listen to this:

EXCLUSIVE- Bill Murphy's London Source: "Big Gold & Silver Moves Coming in August"

And the grains are, quite literally, ON FIRE. Though they are susceptible to a sharp pullback here, the forecast isn't getting any better. And it's still July. Yikes. Here's the latest forecast for Kansas City, Missouri. Right in the middle of corn and soybean country.

And here are your weekly charts showing new all-time highs in both corn and beans. The DAG, which we first discussed here a few weeks ago near $9, is closing in on $15, too.

The latest CoT was kind of a bummer. For the reporting week, gold rose $9 and silver rose 44c. In the face of that, The Gold Cartel added over 6000 new net shorts and The Evil Empire added just over 1000 new net short in silver. Not a disaster but not real encouraging, either. The only positive in the report is in the LargeSpecShortSheep category for silver where the LSSS added another 1,123 gross shorts. This brings their total up to over 20,000 at 20,775 and lowers the LargeSpec net long ratio to just 1.37:1. Again, for perspective, on 4/5/11, the LargeSpec net long ratio was 4.04:1 based upon 48,890 longs and just 12,105 shorts.

Three items of reading material for you. First, this interesting piece from John Aziz. It's worth considering. https://azizonomics.com/2012/07/21/why-is-the-fed-not-printing-like-crazy/

Next, Detlev Schlichter has written another excellent article: https://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/07/happy-interventionists-the-economists-attack-on-your-property/

And, finally, some interesting perspective from KWN's "London Trader". Note that there are no price targets or forecasts. Just a simple and concise analysis of demand fundamentals. https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/20_London_Trader_-_The_LBMA_Gold_Price_Fixing_Scheme_Is_Over.html

OK, that's all for now. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend and I look forward to getting back to "business as usual" on Monday.

TF

p.s. When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/conspiracy-theories. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

About the Author

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  364 Comments

single6
Jul 21, 2012 - 3:21pm

jesses cafe american

What is with jessses love of Chris Hedges? He post alot of videos of him talking. Every now and then Jesses takes a bath with the liberal left.

SRSrocco
Jul 21, 2012 - 3:29pm

More good news in the gold industry..

Gold discoveries not making the grade

The big worry faced by any investor in a mining company is reserve depletion. When the ore is all extracted, it’s the end of the road for shareholders, unless new reserves can be found.

A new report from Metals Economics Group, the mining research outfit based in Halifax, suggests investors in the gold mining industry should be concerned that their prime asset – metal in the ground – is being depleted.

The firm looked at all the significant gold discoveries (defined as deposits containing at least two million ounces) made from 1997 to 2011, and tallied up what miners have found, compared with what they hauled out of the ground during the same period. It isn’t a pretty picture for long term sustainability. There were 99 big discoveries containing a total of 743 million ounces. MEG estimates the discoveries only replaced 56 per cent of the estimated gold mined.

MEG isn’t worried that the world will run out of gold any time soon. The problem for the industry is that it is replacing current, high grade mines in stable locations, for development projects comprising of low-grade, riskier deposits. Long term, this isn’t a good thing for the industry.

------------------------------

Here we see that the Gold Mining Industry is having trouble replacing reserves to match their past and current production. Not only is the problem of finding decent ore grades, but having the cheap and available energy to mine and produce the metal. Again... no one is looking at this.

If we consider the following:

1997-2011 Total World Gold Production = 132.8 million oz.

1997-2011 New Large Gold Discoveries = 743 million oz

The remainder they did not include in the report were probably gold resources of lower amount and ore grade. I believe most juniors with low ore grades and no forecast for commercial production until 2020, will never become mines....a few might but most not.

El Gordo
Jul 21, 2012 - 3:36pm

Tractor v shinies

Looks like a pretty good deal on a tractor to me, particularly with the PTO and implements included. Assuming you have a use for it of course.

Pete
Jul 21, 2012 - 3:53pm
single6
Jul 21, 2012 - 3:54pm

Jeff Synder's book Nation of Cowards

Great book on Rights and guns. I book floored me when I first read it. Here is an older interview from lewrockwell.com

Interview With Jeff Snyder

by cstagnaro[at]libero[dot]it (Carlo Stagnaro)

Very often, anti-gun activists claim guns do kill people, while their opposers assure that guns, on the contrary, do save lives. Actually, real statistics and crude numbers seems to agree with the latter, as – among other – John Lott showed in his well known More Guns, Less Crime. Anyway, stats and numbers cannot answer the entire question; rights cannot lie on data books. One should also make a moral argument. Do people have the right to be free? In that case, do they have the right to protect themselves? Finally, do they have the right to use arms for self-defence? If so, it shouldn’t matter whether, according statistics, guns wither kill or save lives. The fact that one should be allowed to defend himself simply excludes that government disarm him.

We have talked of this, and much more, with Jeff Snyder, whose last book, Nation of Cowards (Accurate Press, 2001) is a strong case in defence of the individual right to keep and bear arms.

On September 11, 2001, the worst terrorist act in history was committed without any guns. The terrorists were armed only with knives and box-cutters. Some say that the hijackers found it quite easy to realize their plans; airplane passengers, in fact, can’t carry firearms. Even pilots and cabin stewards are unarmed. What about gun-free airplanes and airports?

The track record of gun-free zones is, how shall we say this, less than impressive: post offices, schools, and now, airplanes. The events of September 11 could not have occurred but for the fact that air travelers are disarmed, and airplanes are a Second Amendment free zone. In no other way could the terrorists have commandeered the planes with box cutters and pocket knives, turned them into flying bombs, and wrought such massive destruction of life, property, and our economy. This is not because the terrorists would have been afraid of being shot and killed by passengers, since they were obviously prepared to die. Instead, they would have known that they would not succeed in carrying out their mission against the World Trade Center and Pentagon, and so there would have been no point in trying that.

So it turns out that depriving people of freedom has its costs. It is hard to conceive of a more graphic illustration.

[...]

So, your rights, you do not need them! They cannot and will not help you, because no government wishes to recognize them (although it may make a show of doing so as long as it thinks it necessary, until most people can be brought around), and it is fine with the state if you spend your life attempting to compel the state to acknowledge and respect their existence. The question is whether you will act free or how you will use your freedom. But take care that you do not throw yourself away cheaply or needlessly, for such a one as the state; choose well how to create good in the world. Seek and speak the truth about what you know about the nature of the state, ignore the state as best you can, refuse its assistance, accept and fulfill your responsibilities instead of seeking ways to shift your burdens to others, and forge the social relationships you want or need to live as you would like without the state’s tender mercies.

[Read the rest here]

[Mod note: It IS an older interview, but please don't paste the whole thing.]

El Gordo
Jul 21, 2012 - 3:56pm

Why post this here?

Well, this is another of life's little expenses we need to take into account when we do our planning. Liberace in one of his best roles.

Video unavailable
treefrog
Jul 21, 2012 - 4:00pm

tractor

i've been looking at ads for tractors for quite a while. i want one.

i want one, but, i don't need one. my rototiller is enough for the amount of land i have to work. a set of discs would be nice. a front end loader would be nice. a pto operated tiller would be super.

...but not really needed on my present scale of things

... but a backhoe isn't something i really need unless my neighbor sold me a few acres of scrubby woods. backhoes are good at grubbing out stumps.

there are ads on craigslist from time to time with nice looking small tractors, and if i can talk my neighbor out of a few acres, maybe i'll take the plunge and start small scale farming instead of just large scale gardening.

besides, if i wait, my AG is worth more, and i have noticed the tractor prices on craigslist are flat or maybe dropping a little.

the power of positive procrastination!

single6
Jul 21, 2012 - 4:02pm

just another reason why I carry

Why Switzerland Has The Lowest Crime Rate In The World
Physical_only
Jul 21, 2012 - 4:05pm

@SRSrocco

You are a wealth of knowledge on metals/mining; some really good info; even though I'm a stacker trying to buy/guess the dips here & there.

Been stacking since 05; a little late to the game; wish I would have paid more attention in 01; but NOW seems like a great time to add if your just starting or relatively new to stacking; a couple of $'s one way or the other in the long run won't matter much.

Just MAKE SURE your not looking for a QUICK $ , don't blow your fiat all at once, have some fiat ready for any major dip & you'll do just fine.

Always appreciate your well researched reports.

Thanks for you efforts. Have a great weekend.

Cononish1314El Gordo
Jul 21, 2012 - 4:08pm

I can't help thinking

I can't help thinking of

https://www.amazon.com/Short-History-Tractors-Ukrainian-Novel/dp/1594200440

So, how about "A shorter history of silver production in Kazakhstan"? Has anyone ever written a novel satirising the commodities market [and its pundits]?

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