Getting Real Close

Mon, Jul 16, 2012 - 1:27am

As we get set to begin a new week, I can't shake the feeling that we are getting real close. Close to finishing this basing pattern. Close to breaking higher. Close to an explosive move.

First, just a couple more items from FreedomFest. Friday morning I ran into Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal. What a nice guy! I just walked up to him and struck up a conversation. Though he didn't know me from Sean Connery, we quickly hit it off and he has promised to come into Turdville for a podcast in August. Steve Forbes is an unbelievably nice guy, too. The guy's a billionaire yet he courteously took time to visit and pose with anyone who approached him. On the flip side...I'm walking out Friday, happy and relaxed. Not a cloud in the sky got the sun in my eye and then I see him...Prechter. Right in front of me, being interviewed by Reason TV. I wanted to freaking tackle him. Just bolt onto the "set" and barrel into him like I was a Free Safety. Lay him out like I was Jack Tatum and he was Darryl Stingley. Revenge for all the poor saps he's bilked out of subscription fees for all these years. I paused, considered my options and then moved on. He's not worth it. Not worth the trouble and not worth the hassle. That said, I really wanted to flatten the guy. Badly.

So, anyway, it's going to be a wild week. First of all, we've got the situation in Syria coming to a head. The next 48-72 hours look very volatile. Watch crude closely. Why, you ask? Remember that Syria and Iran are reasonably close allies. Any NATO move against Syria will likely generate some type of sympathy aggression from Iran. Maybe the mining of the Straits? We'll see. IF crude begins to move through $88 and then $90, then a move toward $100 will be imminent. Again, watch the headlines very closely.

And, boyohboy, is it hot as a firecracker in the U.S. heartland. Check out these two links. The first is a "drought monitor" from the University of Nebraska. Let the animation load and watch the progression. Yikes!

And here's the next 8 days of computer weather models. The big circle that forms over the Midwest is a nasty, hot high pressure system that will bring scorching temperatures and dry weather to farm country. Got DAG?

Which brings us to the metals. Last week's CoT reversed out nearly all of the Cartel shorting that was evident in the previous report. Though we remain mired in our 10-week consolidation bases, the time is rapidly approaching where price will catapult higher, break out and surge forward. First, read this from Trader Dan. As you know, I've gotten to know Dan quite well so I can assure you that he is NOT prone to KWN-type hyperbole. That said, please read and ponder this:

It is simply a matter of time now before gold and silver break higher. Remain patient and please utilize this time to add to your physical stack. The ability of The Bullion Bank Cartel to manipulate price is being curtailed. The LIEbor scandal being simply the latest wound to their seeming invincibility. The Truth is on our side and we are winning.

Have a great Monday!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


El Gordo · Jul 16, 2012 - 1:34am

I'm ready

Let 'er rip..

beardeus · Jul 16, 2012 - 1:36am

I'm right behind you El

I'm right behind you El Gordo!

LaMachinna · Jul 16, 2012 - 1:40am


cool Thx Turd!!!

ivars · Jul 16, 2012 - 1:43am

I think in our fast connected global environment things are happening and will happen faster, including increase of complexity to maintain status quo and inability to carry the costs. Sobering.

I have put it in my chart forum so that these basic concepts are easy to find.

leisure · Jul 16, 2012 - 1:45am

Listed some 90% quarters on Craigslist...

Just for some walking around $$.....19X face.....not one single phone call. Same thing a month ago. This is in a large city in No. Cal. Seems strange to me. Maybe my LCS is right? "J6P is broke. I've had a 10-1 ratio of sellers to buyers since early spring"

· Jul 16, 2012 - 1:47am

self reflection

I either cannot sleep, don't have a life, or I am obsessed with metals to be on this time of day!

wildstylechef · Jul 16, 2012 - 2:06am

its happening before the end of the month

here it is comes to a close around the 25th to the 30th

MrGuboci · Jul 16, 2012 - 2:10am

advice please

Thx for the update ! Just made a physical purchase for 250 Oz and got 1400 Ozon margin with funds to cover a dip until 24$ mark . I still have no exit strategy for the silver on margin , any suggestions folks ? Was thinking about waiting until it hits around the 50$ mark and purchase physical with the win . 

ClinkinKY · Jul 16, 2012 - 2:24am

I guess I'm testing the new...

..."guidelines" for Main Street posts.

Nuff said.


Sen. Durbin expects voters to ‘stand behind’ Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.

Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin (D) said Sunday he expected voters in his home state to continue supporting Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. despite questions surrounding his absence from Congress.

Read more:

ClinkinKY · Jul 16, 2012 - 2:34am
Sisyphus · Jul 16, 2012 - 2:46am

Bernanke this week

Fly meets ointment.

Katie Rose · Jul 16, 2012 - 3:31am

The question is...

Do I spend what little money I have on silver?

Or, do I save it for the next cutting of alfalfa in mid to late August? Will there even be another cutting? My animals won't eat first cutting alfalfa.

How am I going to feed my farm animals this winter? I do not want anything GMO. And nearly all commercial feed includes GMO corn or soy. I desperately need a cost effective alternative. All of us need an alternative to the GMO crap that is fobbed off on us.

I have never lived through a nationwide drought. I have never lived through a currency collapse. I suspect I soon will live through both.

I can not remember a more lawless and corrupt Dept of Justice. I see no justice in this land. Regulators don't regulate. Billions are stolen and no one is prosecuted. It is shocking to me what has happened to the USA.

I believe this drought is a game changer. It may be the Black Swan event many of us have spoken about. It is serious. Very, very serious.

I, for one, am doing everything I know to do to come up with alternative solutions for feeding my livestock. When things blow up, I want the ability to make my own cheese and yogurt, buttermilk and ice cream. I truly want to be able to help those with small children who live close by.

I am researching hydroponics. I am researching grow domes. I am talking to hay farmers within a 100 mile radius. I am talking to my LCS owner. I am gathering information. And I am praying for wisdom....

For those of you who are without long term food storage, please stop procrastinating now!!!!!!!!!

It is midnight. I am rambling. Please forgive me. I need to get to bed. Yet I can not sleep. I am wide awake and running on empty.

Every fiber of my being is screaming that time is nearly up.

I'll say it again. This drought is a game changer. The US has no food reserves, so you need to have some for your family.

tpbeta · Jul 16, 2012 - 3:42am

trader dan....

... was significantly less positive about Silver to be fair.

Mariposa de Oro · Jul 16, 2012 - 3:51am

Hang in there Katie Rose

I'm sorry you're so stressed out. I can't offer anything but prayers and the knowledge that someone out there understands. I can tell you've done all you can do. Put your faith in God. Give it to Him. 

I pray, and I'll pray for you, too. You are not alone.

· Jul 16, 2012 - 3:59am


I've been watching the corn here in Western Ohio. We have not been hit as badly, but the stalks are looking smaller than normal and are starting to lose their nice green color. This is serious. We have been praying for rain.

What else will your goats eat that keeps them healthy? We started feeding our chickens rice and lentils that we bought in bulk. Seems about the same price as feed and we wanted to rotate our food stores.

CrazyCooter Katie Rose · Jul 16, 2012 - 4:02am

I just hopped on to respond,

I just hopped on to respond, because I think you may be a bit more "in the know" than most realize. I hadn't thought of the drought in these terms, but I will definitely not forget your comment going forward. For those that missed it, Gail over at TheOilDrum did a really interesting article back when the Egyptian population went bonkers. If you understood this when it happened, you would have a firm understanding of the role of food prices in popular dissent.

Folks, the US feeds the world. We export a tremendous amount of food. I often debated, at happy hour, with a retired military officer buddy of mine (when I lived in TX) about the role of food in modern warfare/conflicts. I always told him, "We don't need to bomb the world Bob, we just need to stop exporting food." I would love to see Turd or SRSrocco or someone with professional skills in this area quantify for the public what a *really bad harvest* means for food exports, food prices, and world caloric intake.

I think the basic price of grains (corn, rice, etc) around the world will act as a very clear bellwether for social chaos in the parts of the world where people spend most of their money on food (Americans are gas price sensative, many in the world are in the same way food price sensitive - but the distinction is important). It would be scary as hell if they coupled this failed harvest with another fat QE in a few months when the markets tank (after the presidential elections of course, or at least the republican convention) which would debase the currency in which foods are priced.

I did a big order from Lundberg not long ago. It is just me, so I felt comfortable with 50 pounds of waheni and black japonica. I actually eat it on a regular basis and re-order as my stocks come down. I like the 1lb packages because its factory sealed for me for storage in small units. I have repeatedly advocated to friends/family about keeping a supply of basics on hand, including bulk dry food and cash. I have lots of beans, cornmeal, and other basics.

Folks, head down to WalMart, buy a 25lb bag of rice (or two), make sure you got it wrapped up/stored safely. Do the same for beans. The LDS are crazy about food storage, so ask them if you are truly clueless and need help. They are probably used to the requests by now and will be very helpful if you aren't sure what you are doing. Researching on the internet works just as well.

Just be freakin' prepared. It is getting real soon.



The Green Manalishi · Jul 16, 2012 - 4:30am

James Howard Kunstler

Interview with Chris Martenson:

James Howard Kunstler: It's Too Late for Solutions
Katie Rose · Jul 16, 2012 - 4:35am

I made a promise to myself that I just broke

I promised myself that I would not post past 11 PM as I am so exhausted from the physicalness of living on a farm. When I am tired I ramble. I seem more freaked out than I really am.

Please forgive me.

Yet, tonight I just know on a very, very deep level that with the coming harvest things are going to change in ways we can not imagine.

History tells us what happens when harvests fail. 

I believe in six months those who haven't made food preparations will be very, very sorry.

Having some oatmeal and barley and other whole grains on hand is simply an act of loving kindness to yourself and your family. It isn't "hoarding." It is simply doing what our Grand Parents did. They always had food on hand to tide them over the winter till the next harvest.

We need to start thinking that way again.

Now off to bed I go. smiley

El Gordo · Jul 16, 2012 - 5:22am


None of my business, but if it were me, I would focus my attention to my ag operation and forego any outside investments. See, if economic catastrophe strikes, your ag operation will provide plenty of barter material. I'll be calling on you with my silver wanting to make a deal for foodstocks.

ivars · Jul 16, 2012 - 5:32am

EUR tanking again. Must be

EUR tanking again. Must be something real bad again as people fly to the safety of USD/treasuries. All what matters is to see how gold/silver handles raising USDx- will it break the long term supports ( e.g. 26 in silver) substantially or not. We are right now walking along the edge in terms of silver price of a razor as USDx direction is set.

Another thing is will anything FED does be able to reduce the value of USD significantly for long enough period of time or not. I think not- but that does not mean silver and gold can not survive high USDx- just the emerging process of more widespread acknowledgement of PMs as ultimate safe haven in current crisis needs to gather the speed as it has already started. Any increase in US debt/ fiscal outlays may trigger this, as debt continues to grow, but if its growth accelerates (e.g. war in Iran) or USD gets too strong too fast for US economy to handle, so recession accelerates->debt accelerates-> PM will escape the rising USDx drag.

Just have a look at the chart I have been using for EUR/USD since October 2011 - it does not show any short term signals for lowering of USD value till at the very end of 2012- and for some reason, I believe in it:

ivars · Jul 16, 2012 - 5:32am

This is what I meant to post

This is what I meant to post in a post close to beginning of this comment section (can not over stress how important this understanding is, how it makes the picture so much clearer in a simple way, not taking anything away from crashes as part of dynamic complex system characteristics- sometimes these crashes from historical point of view and from different society strata point of view may last for centuries, as happened with Western Rome):

Tainter's video lecture on "Collapse of Complex societies" - easy to listen, interesting and highly recommended. No easy ways out of the decline of complex society-either radically new cheaper energy source now or pillage (increasing the empire). Current synapse of his book from 1988 I recommended earlier:

I put the video links in the right order, from 1 to 5, each about 14 minutes, very easy to understand/interesting to listen. Includes debasement of currency in ancient Rome before collapse and its today's analogies, but that is not the main point. I buy his explanation of diminishing returns in increasingly complex society that is necessary to maintain status quo ( in our case, status quo includes 3% growth/year, moderate inflation and money creation by fractional banking ) and needs for subsidies (free lunch aka fossil fuels giving access to accumulated solar energy) to sustain increasingly complex societies and grow them economically:






I think in our fast connected global environment things are happening and will happen faster, including increase of complexity to maintain status quo as current solvency crisis explodes and inability to carry the costs of such increased complexity.

I have put these links in my chart forum so that these basic concepts are easy to find. This is basic stuff to start to understand a lot. Productive investment, watching these videos.

sixdollarsilver · Jul 16, 2012 - 5:43am

Bloody good work Ivars

"Another thing is will anything FED does be able to reduce the value of USD significantly for long enough period of time or not. I think not- but that does not mean silver and gold can not survive high USDx- just the emerging process of more widespread acknowledgement of PMs as ultimate safe haven in current crisis needs to gather the speed as it has already started. Any increase in US debt/ fiscal outlays may trigger this, as debt continues to grow, but if its growth accelerates (e.g. war in Iran) or USD gets too strong too fast for US economy to handle, so recession accelerates->debt accelerates-> PM will escape the rising USDx drag."


​Like your style.

I for one clearly remember a number of (micro-ish) periods where PMs have moved inverse to POSx as the latter rose, then moved in lock-step, then broken back to inverse as POSx sank... Too busy to go back and look, anybody?

The last part of my (slightly contrary) thesis of course is the POSx sinking, but hey, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 

ggnewmex · Jul 16, 2012 - 5:57am


It has been glaringly apparent to me that "they" must be keeping Obama out of the loop. Let me explain.

Regardless of your political affiliation, he is a very good campaigner. Is frustrating to watch him accuse Romney of the same things he does, but oh well, its politics.

However, there are some really serious things going on it the world! Syria, death of the $, China/ Russia moving away from the $, Iran, the list goes on and on. WHERE IS OBAMA??

Sitting on the sidelines campaigning. 

The rest of the world has obviously shut him out, and there is no respect left for him, and consequently, the United States. Hillary is trying hard we know, but she is standing at the bottom of a cliff, looking up, with no one listening.


ggnewmex · Jul 16, 2012 - 6:01am


Thanks for all you do Turd, appreciate it.

Just cannot help but think that this is much more than a drought occurring. If we do not get rain, can anyone truly imagine what food prices will look like?? I know that it is not calculated into inflation, so "fortunately" while the world THINKS inflation is 1%, the real world will be paying double digits in REAL numbers.

I beleive that the rains come from above. Literally and figuratively. God is the One who allows it to happen, or not happen. Could it be repentance He is looking for? Before anone dismisses this, consider how this drought may affect you.

I know what I am doing!! Trusting in the Lord!!


nixy sixdollarsilver · Jul 16, 2012 - 6:04am

Price of fuel rigged??

Price of fuel manipulated??

Surely not.

In fact perhaps it is time to change terminology.

NOT....Today, the price of (enter you commodity here) is £$XXXX

RATHER..... Today, the manipulated price of (enter you commodity here) is £$XXXX

jx07 · Jul 16, 2012 - 6:35am

When the S&*% hits the fan

The s&*% will really hit the fan once it dawns on people just how severe the situation is in the US. Europe is nothing in comparison when markets realize that the nation behind the world's reserve currency has fallen off the cliff. There won't be many places to hide. Precious metals are one of few. Some quality miners will literally have their own printing press but in hard currency.

ggnewmex · Jul 16, 2012 - 6:39am


Turd, as if you did not know.... The US sent their FOURTH aircraft carrier to the Gulf.

Things are getting real serious, REAL quick


Groaner · Jul 16, 2012 - 6:46am

Hey Turd: I agree with your assessment of Prechter

I had a friend who turned me on to gold in early 2003 when gold was struggling to get through $300. Can you believe it? He was a subscriber to Prechter Idiot Wave. When Gold hit $360 he went short based on his abracadabra charts. He kept telling me to go short too. He went broke in the furtures market and I stayed long.

How can that guy have any creditability at all?? 

Sure would be nice to see the metals buck the trend against the US Peso.. very soon and say. Adios fiat 

RRJJ · Jul 16, 2012 - 7:04am

Can someone please explain

Can someone please explain what Turd has against Prechter? I read Prechters book a few years ago and as I recall he is pretty much in line with the general views here. He might be a bit more of a deflationist but in general doesn't he agree with a lot of what Turd is saying? I know he uses the Wave theory and I'm not at all qualified to say anything about it but is that why Turd wanted to ram him?

Groaner RRJJ · Jul 16, 2012 - 7:07am

He has been wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong.

what more do you need to know?

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