Greetings From FreedomFest

Fri, Jul 13, 2012 - 12:57pm

As part of my "vacation", I've spent the last two days at "FreedomFest" in Vegas. It has been terrific.

FreedomFest is a 3-day conference revolving around libertarianism and Austrian economics. Yep...right up my alley. And it was in Vegas! Also, right up my alley.

In the past two days, I've met with Ranting Andy and Mike Krieger. I've been interviewed by Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network and I've made the acquaintance of Rick Rule of Sprott and Pat Heller of Liberty Coin Service. All of this was very cool.

However, the main thrill was yesterday. I attended a small luncheon where Steve Forbes introduced The Judge. Judge Napolitano went on to speak to the group for about 30 minutes and then field questions. I got my picture taken with him and he also gave me his business card. I hope to finally schedule that podcast that I've been dreaming about! Again, very cool. The Judge then gave a 45 minute speech to the entire convention. He's just awesome. Great stuff.

Great stuff in the metals today, too. The Big Bad Wolves huffed and puffed again yesterday but once again failed to bring the house down. Santa was right in two fronts: One, they attacked and two, they failed. By no means are we out of the woods yet but nothing too scary, either. Gold remains firmly within it's 10-week basing and bottoming range of 1535-1635. Silver, too, is still in its 27-29 range. The good part of these ranges is this: Once we break out and UP...and we will be clear to absolutely everyone with half a brain that the metals have bottomed. The shorts will either get frightened or squeezed and prices will move up rather quickly. Just be ready.

Two interesting news items I found while surfing with my phone this morning. First, this link to ZH. You should check it out.

And then, while at ZH, I saw that Swiss 2-year note is now yielding negative .43%. NEGATIVE POINT FOUR THREE PERCENT! The Germans are also getting in the act as their 2-year is now -0.05%. This is truly incredible. On a hypothetical new issue, for a 1,000,000 franc, Swiss 2-year note, you would have to pay the Swiss government about 10,000 francs for the privilege. Are you freaking kidding me? You've heard me mention ad nauseam how negative, real rates are extraordinarily bullish for gold. How about just plain, old negative rates?? Holy Toledo!

Lastly, as we continue on our trip down Memory Lane, perhaps today would be a good day to review this idea of negative real interest rates. I wrote this piece back on 2/1/12 and today is as good a time as any to go back and review it.

OK, that's all. I have to head to the airport soon so I better wrap this up. Please check back later today though as I plan to update this thread with thoughts on the CoT, once it's out. I probably won't be able to do it until this evening, however. It should be an interesting report. For the reporting week, gold was down $42 while total OI rose by 2000 or so. Silver was down $1.40 and saw its total OI climb by 1400.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Just A Regular Guy
Jul 13, 2012 - 2:43pm

@ Bam / SRSrocco

I understand, however, isn't the whole problem with the current system is the idea of fractional reserve banking/leading idea, and isn't the philosophy of the Austrian economists strictly against this? People have hinted at the current economic climate as a clash of banking families and/or a clash of ideologies/paradigms.

For example, as you say, the Rothschilds may own sunken-boatloads of gold, but lets say another group of people owned a boatload x 100 of government bonds. Each family has a different interest in the paradigm relating to return on investment. As people say, paper will return to it's intrinsic value of "paper" and gold will be worth a lot more. So based on these ideas one can understand, or perhaps understand the vested interests behind crashing economies.

On a global scale, the reason I see gold being a "currency" is that it eliminates the debasement of paper-money systems by a central bank, and all following currency/trade wars that are happening today. So essentially the worthless metal (gold) is a currency that is "natural" to all countries, and will allow fairer trade between countries, and hence better allocation of capital (via Austrian economic thinking) hence a "better" (fairer/more libertarian) society. You may still have the "currency" as it stands, of nations, but they will be some-how linked/backed by gold (or other commodities), and I could see in say 20+years the currencies of countries slowly being phased out. I also do understand what you are saying regarding fire-sales and economic collapses to make the rich, richer, however how can we not think that ourselves as agents/actors in our countries were complicit in allowing governments run up ridiculous debts that could never be repaid? The corruption of the government, from whatever way (whether by their loss of morals/ethics directly for personal gain, or via bribery/blackmail) has shown how paper-money systems are essentially a failure.

Sometimes when I think of this stuff I just get so bogged down by many many many many different pieces of data via different media etc. It can be very hard to truly articulate the ideas correctly :)

Rocco - I agree with you on energy 100%. No external energy to make stuff work, i.e. make electrons flow, cars move etc. = bye bye economy as we know it.

Jul 13, 2012 - 2:43pm



I have to say, every passing day I wake up and the CRAP that I have to read or see on the BOOB TUBE just makes you wonder how we made it this long as a species. As you all realize, I have a passion for understanding energy. I believe energy = money. That is why I have the EROI ICON next to my screen name. It means ENERGY RETURNED ON INVESTED.

The world is heading down a path of destruction and implosion. Here is the simple truth shown in RATIOS:

1930 USA OIL EROI = 100 to 1

1970 USA OIL EROI = 30 to 1

2012 USA OIL EROI = 9-10 to 1

SHALE OIL = 4-5 to 1

TAR SANDS = 2-4 to 1



People don't realize that in order to have our CONSUMPTION ECONOMY that we are in presently, we need an EROI of at least 15-20 to 1. The destruction of wages and jobs were not just because our manufacturing was sent to CHINA, but also because our falling EROI could not support our MANUFACTURING-RETAIL economy. By sending our manufacturing overseas, we were able to expand our SERVICE ECONOMY for another several decades. Well, that time is coming to an end now that INDIA and CHINA are bidding for oil.

This was a piece from an article on OIL DEMAND:

Summary: consumption is flattish because of demand, not supply. Otherwise prices would be rising to destroy the excess of demand over supply (as it did in Spring 2008).

Here was a reply by Darwinian from

We hit that plateau began in 2005, three years before prices destroyed demand in 2008. In other words we have been on a seven year plateau because of low oil prices. Here are average yearly Brent prices since 2001. Look at the average price before we hit the plateau in 2005, then the average price after

we hit the plateau. Now someone tell me, with a straight face, that production has been flat because of low oil prices.

Here we can see that analysts are still putting out SERIOUS RUBBISH when it comes to important issues such as oil. The price of BRENT CRUDE before we hit a world plateau of oil production in 2004 was $38.26.... currently the average price of Brent is $112.68 a barrel. This turns out to be 3 TIMES the 2004 price.

When politicians talk about GROWTH, I can safely say, they are completely FOS... FULL OF SHEET. You can't have growth without a growing oil supply or a high EROI as it pertains to an advanced civilization.

Our economy in the United States peaked several decades ago. We have been living on BORROWED TIME, GAS FUMES and HUGE AMOUNTS OF DEBT. Unfortunately, at some point in time the AMERICAN DREAM will come to and end. Those who were wise and bought GOLD and SILVER bullion, will suffer much less.

I wish I had better news....

CrimsonAvenger Wizard
Jul 13, 2012 - 2:44pm

Re: Normalcy Bias

Good post, Wizard. It's very hard to change the minds of people (like my wife!) with normalcy bias. I've resigned myself, taking comfort in the timeless words of the Doobie Brothers:

What a fool believes he sees
No wise man has the power
To reason away

DayStar Keg
Jul 13, 2012 - 2:47pm

Why buy a 2 year with negative interest?

Keg, the only thing I can figure is that they need the note as collateral. The note can be rehypothecated, but I don't know about the cash.


Jul 13, 2012 - 2:55pm

Great post SRSroco! Love it

Great post SRSroco! Love it how you get the whole picture. From energy to EROI to growth to bullion. I personally feel that most posters (maybe not here) don't grasp the full picture. They focus on one small part of the puzzle but fail to put the pieces together.

The energy problem is behind this mess. That's why we are all on Turds site talking about stacking silver and gold from the first place.

Jul 13, 2012 - 2:57pm

coincidentally I did a spoof

coincidentally I did a spoof related to Freedom to Grow your own vegetables. Methinks kind of funny....

TSA new duties

TSA = Tomato Surveillance Agency People using cash for transaction and people growing their own food are now being considered “home grown terrorists” since they are hurting US businesses that are improving the world through genetic modification, fertilizers, and pesticides. Although the HGT’s will not be prosecuted criminally, they will be taxed at market rate plus 20%.

Accordingly, Obama has authorized the TSA.....

Big L
Jul 13, 2012 - 2:57pm

So... jealous

We should plan a Turdite group for next year!

BTW, I went to an agricultural club meeting last night. It started with a PRAYER, and then the Pledge of Allegiance! Wow, how great is that! Hand on heart, heads bowed and everything. Those folks are not shy and they know what they think.

I especially liked the prayer, thanking God for our freedoms to meet and speak our minds. I was SO on board with those people.


Jul 13, 2012 - 2:58pm



This chart from my PEAK SILVER REVISITED article says it all. The downside of the PEAK OIL chart is bad, but not as bad when we factor in the DECLINING EROI. Basically, as energy gets more expensive to explore, drill and produce more and more of the percentage gets eaten up by the process leaving less for market.

That is why we will see PEAK SILVER much sooner than later. Furthermore, the collapse of FIAT MONEY and going back to a GOLD BACKED SYSTEM will not keep the world's economies from imploding. That is why I differ from some of the rhetoric put out by the AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS..... they fail to comprehend the peaking of global oil and the falling EROI.

For example, Peter Schiff believes that the rise in the price of oil is just due to monetary printing... it is not. It is also due to a peaking supply and growing demand. The Austrian School believes if we just allowed the BIG BANKS to fail, and go back to sound money, then everything would turn out alright.

This is a very bad conclusion. Our economy needs HIGH EROI to function. Our whole system is built on it. There is no way to transfer to a different system now that all this capital and infrastructure has been sunk. It was a ONE WAY TICKET to nowhere.

That is why I believe in owning GOLD and SILVER. You can't change what is done, but you can prepare for the future.

This is the insanity of it all....

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:00pm

OI @ Dagney

Dagney, if I'm representing Turd's COT analysis correctly, when he sees rising OI but falling prices, it means that spec longs pitched and added shorts, but that the commercials bought most of those longs from the specs that they just tricked(or as Ed Steer would say, they harvested the longs). So, theoretically, these COT's mean on the surface, that the commercials covered some shorts and went long, and the tech funds were tricked into being short.....setting up an ideal situation where they could be squeezed on the way up. Hope that helps, and I hope I didn't butcher that analysis Turd.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:00pm

The first of Many

My thoughts on JPM and SLV.

I believe JPM uses the SLV as a form of buffer stock scheme. Usually a government, exchange or cartel would agree a max and min price level that the commodity needs to stay within e.g. to provide a good price to producers to incentivise and reduce price volatility. Then when the supply is high they buy and withdraw the product from the market. This has the affect of raising the price due to new demand and less supply. Also if the price is too high they sell the material back into the market increasing supply and lowering the price. It can only be done with commodities that are easy to store, do not perish and the difference in price is less than the storage costs etc. JPM can do this over a small price range if the costs are low and actually make a profit. The SLV can be used for this purpose and the amount of physical removed or added would not materially affect the total `stock' levels or the price of the SLV itself. Another advantage is that if the supply demand conditions currently are that the difficulty in sourcing material is only around the main deliverable months it can be smoothed out by withdrawing from the SLV on those months and topping it back up again over the remaining. The potential peak demand shortage is avoided as the material is borrowed and nobody is the wiser.

Now if this happens too often and the SLV is not topped up then there is a problem.

A way of thinking about this is imagine granny gives mum a box of chocolates. The kids know where the box is so they every now and then steal a chocolate and to avoid being caught they leave the tell tale wrapper in the box. So mum does not check the box and the kids keep stealing the chocolates. One day mum reaches in the box fully expecting to find chocolates amongst the wrappers but no they have all gone.

So for JPM to avoid getting caught they need to hide the missing chocolates (PHYS) with wrapper (paper share certificates etc.) and as long as no one rummages to hard for PHYS (takes another form of payment) all is good.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:05pm

The first of Many

I have noticed that Thursday's seem to be FUBM days. Does anyone have data to dis/prove this?

Bluefin771 The Doc
Jul 13, 2012 - 3:06pm

@The Doc on PFG Theft

The only thing I'd change about your post would be it's past time to pull paper wealth from the system. When MFG went under there were numerous warnings that this was not the only cockroach. Shortly after the MFG debacle a lady was interviewed at Financial Sense. Darned if I can remember her name or the brokerage name but the gist of the interview was consultations with lawyers and personal investigation showed to her satisfaction that there was nothing to stop this kind of thing happening to her firm and clients. As a result, she closed her brokerage and worked with clients to liquidate or transfer assests. She planned to reopen when the rule of law returned (which is to say not any time soon).

This corruption extends even to the plain vanilla stock holdings. There have again been numerous reports of phantom shares of stocks issued, naked short positions, with being one example. Here the company founder got so sick of the obvious price gaming of the shares that he wanted to take the company back private. He couldn't because there were more shares outstanding than the company had issued and the system couldn't tell him where or who had the fake shares. He testified before Congress and nothing changed. Jim Willie and Rob Kirby have covered similar stories in regard to Treasury bonds.

So as tempting as it is to get 'leverage' through mining stocks to the price of metal, the risk of being right and still losing it all is far too great IMHO.

In the broader context, one of the major things that made America great was the honesty of its markets. That made America a popular destination of capital from around the world. Capital that is treated poorly ends up leaving (or in the cases of MFG/PFG, destroyed). Then it takes time and a rebuilding of confidence in honest markets (through the rule of law) for capital to return. Argentina, Uganda, and Greece would be 3 examples so far in this century of what happens when capital flees. The EU, Great Britain and the US are all working at being the next 3 examples.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:09pm

The first of Many

Gordon Brown bailing out JPM and GS with UK gold. My thought on this is why couldn't the US do this? Could it be they don't have any real gold!

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:12pm

The key to success in any community (especially online)

This list is far from comprehensive, but I thought I'd take a moment to summarize what I've learned from some of the fine leading figures I've encountered over the years.

1. Set yourself up in a role of the 'lone ranger', a standout hero constantly in mortal peril, waging righteous (but defensive) war against the forces of evil and darkness.

While an obvious point, it is also important to join existing, relatively large communities rather than attempt to build one's own. Why bother with such a messy, labor-intensive step when there are plenty of existing groups to pluck from low-hanging branches?

2. Divide the rest of the world into neat, black and white areas -- and everyone else into the 'with me' and 'against me' camps. Anyone who doesn't like my style, is clearly against me. Anyone who disagrees with ANY of my opinions, questions my premises or methods, is clearly an agent of THEM. There are only three classes of people: my crew (it's nice to have them strategically placed in the audience, to soften up the rest of the as-yet-unreceptive flock)

all the clueless and/or co-opted, bootlicking, spineless jellyfish that pass for human these days

and the ENEMY, which while both grossly oversimplified and caricaturized, is at the same time near-omnipotent and omnipresent. There is no time for nuances, or considerations of WHO are ultimately pulling the strings, matters of interrelatedness or certainly not any doubt -- MY conspiracy theory rules ALL.

Anyone disagreeing with me, my stated TRUTH, the STYLE in which said truth is presented, is an agent of censorship, a stoolie for the man/ENEMY, or QUITE possibly, a paid operative of the cancer that is destroying the world.

3. Generate lots of aggressive, but sufficiently generalized and directionless angst, worry, misgiving, ill will and in general share the misery that is the price that must be paid for being a lone vigilante in a sea of corrupt and inept peers. Heckle, call people names and call them out. Snipe. Don't bother to make lucid arguments, let alone attempt to use logic. Do not try to teach when you can preach. Suggest - hint at - subtly nudge - but don't quite OVERTLY advocate actual violence. The goal is to try to get someone ELSE to light the match / throw the first punch. The key to successfully riling people up involves short, simplistic jabs -- not reasoning or data. But, plausible deniability is important too.

4. Solutions are for wimps. Offering a clear course of action takes too much time and effort. Shouting slogans, hitting people over the head with 'factoids' and in general appealing to baser instincts is MUCH faster and cost-effective. The goal is not to help anyone, it is merely to point out the hopelessness of everyone's situation.

5. Sit back and watch the fireworks (and accolades).

And THAT, is how you win friends and influence people. It's a tough job, but someone's gotta do it.

If for some reason a group of people does not immediately seem receptive to this regimen of treatment, the problem is with THEM, not with this strategy. Do not give up. Try and try again.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:15pm

@ Admiral Ag Bar


I hope my wife doesn't see it... as you could read from the previous thread, I just got two more tubes of libertads because she liked the fact that those coins have titties...

Now if she ever finds out that the coin also comes in XXL....

edit: I posted this in the previous thread.. it's long but really worth you time!

"fraud. why the great recession" (official documentary)
Just A Regular Guy
Jul 13, 2012 - 3:21pm

@ SRSrocco

I agree that energy is a massive part of the puzzle, if not the key. But we have had years of talk about how oil is running out etc. yet no-one has done anything about it. If there was no fiat-money printing (I think this is the Austrian idea) and suddenly all the gold/capital went to oil producers, and seeing as no more gold can be printed, there would be a much faster reaction in seeking an additional source of energy to fund the needs of an economy, with the most obvious choices being renewables, in order to restore the equilibrium of currency/trade. See if there are 100 pieces of "x" currency in cirulation and all 99 people give their 1-piece of "x" to Mr.100 that is the oil guy, suddenly the other 99 cannot afford to buy anything as they have no money. I know this is very simplistic, but I think that is the Austrian angle. Had there been no money-printing and loans/fractional-reserve/derivative mumbo-jumbo, that can never be repaid, capital would have been allocated at an earlier stage to develop energy resources that would be able to sustain economic progress.

There has been no human desire to do anything about energy/oil because it was made cheap via cheap-loans/fiat money/unfunded promises. Now, suddenly, there is a need to get out of an un-renewable resource in order to preserve a way of life that is known to the west.

Missiondweller SRSrocco
Jul 13, 2012 - 3:26pm


Makes sense. So the natural question is, "Does cheap NatGAs through fracking change that equation"?

Dagney Taggart
Jul 13, 2012 - 3:28pm

Ron Paul tomorrow in Nebraska

Ron Paul wins Nebraska: FUTF

Loses Nebraska: FUBM

That's my call.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:28pm

A reoccuring figure 10,000

“The printing of money will lead to collapsing currencies, and investors buying gold at any price.

Of course the banks don’t have the physical gold to satisfy their commitments. Central banks, and most probably the Fed, don’t have the gold they say they have. The 8,000 tons the US government is supposed to hold is probably not there.

The IMF’s 3,000 tons is probably double-counted and not there either. And banks don’t even have the allocated gold they say they have. We have proof of that, and I know you talked to Stephen Leeb the other day and he said the same thing.

The effect of this is the paper markets will not be trusted. So people will rush into physical gold. I see gold reaching $3,500 to $5,000 in the next 12 to 18 months. Within 3 years, I see the gold price reaching at least $10,000.”$3,500_-_$5,000_in_12_to_18_Months.html

Jan Roos
Jul 13, 2012 - 3:28pm


Whats your take on Porter Stansberry's opinion that America is about to tap a shit ton of oil which should last for hundred years or more and enough to become the worlds largest exporter of oil? I think he said its because of a new drilling technique or something like that. Cheers

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:36pm


In my earlier post, I said the Art Cashin and Bob Pisani were the only two on CNBS I had any respect for. Just realized I was thinking of Rick Santeli, not Bob Pisani. My bad. Bob is just another boot licker IMHO. Rick showed his stuff when he interviewed Nigel early this week. No shiny forehead there.

wax off

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:45pm

From the Vegas airport

The CoT looks good. As expected, about 2/3 of the Cartel net shorts added the previous week (coincidentally, right before the latest plunge) have now been covered. The silver net Cartel short is back to just 14,000. And large and small specs in both metals added a lot of new net shorts. All in all, very good and a nice change from the crappy CoT we got back on Monday.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:46pm
Jul 13, 2012 - 3:47pm


Bob PissOnMe is a first class, status quo, Keynesian, media shill douchebag.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:47pm

Blue Fin

The lady you referred to is Ann Barnhardt. She has her own website.

Jul 13, 2012 - 3:51pm

Stupid metals markets ...

Turd's frustration is shared. WTF motivates the AG and AU markets on any given day is a mystery to this monkey.

bam J Y
Jul 13, 2012 - 4:01pm


That was a glorious post. Especially the second bit:

2. Divide the rest of the world into neat, black and white areas -- and everyone else into the 'with me' and 'against me' camps. Anyone who doesn't like my style, is clearly against me. Anyone who disagrees with ANY of my opinions, questions my premises or methods, is clearly an agent of THEM. There are only three classes of people: my crew (it's nice to have them strategically placed in the audience, to soften up the rest of the as-yet-unreceptive flock) all the clueless and/or co-opted, bootlicking, spineless jellyfish that pass for human these days and the ENEMY, which while both grossly oversimplified and caricaturized, is at the same time near-omnipotent and omnipresent. There is no time for nuances, or considerations of WHO are ultimately pulling the strings, matters of interrelatedness or certainly not any doubt -- MY conspiracy theory rules ALL. Anyone disagreeing with me, my stated TRUTH, the STYLE in which said truth is presented, is an agent of censorship, a stoolie for the man/ENEMY, or QUITE possibly, a paid operative of the cancer that is destroying the world.
Jul 13, 2012 - 4:18pm

In order to tap into the largest pool of oil

In order to tap into the largest pool of oil ever discovered you need a really big rig, in fact it is the largest ever built, I hated BP for what they spilled in the gulf, so much so in that I have not shopped a BP station for gas and grocery ever since. That makes (2) BP and Citgo that do not get my nickels, however if Liberty online puts out what it is engineered to pump, this would truly be beyond petroleum.

Liberty Oil Rig GULL ISLAND!!
Jul 13, 2012 - 4:18pm



Unfortunately, as the line goes from the movie ALIENS... HAS IQ'S SUDDENLY DROPPED SINCE I BEEN GONE. Now I see why Aliens don't come down an break the bread with us HUMANS. Why? Either we are too stupid, or full of fear and would more than likely SHOOT anything that don't look like us.

This is a REPLY to several posts. PORTER STANSBERRY made some predictions about NAT GAS a few years back. He said it would head much higher. He was wrong as the SHALE GAS GOLD RUSH has brought insanity into the field and the markets. SHALE GAS break-even based on 5 year projections is at least $7 a mmbtu. Today its trading at $2.70. There will be a huge amount of bankruptcies going forward.

As you can see from these two charts, INVESTORS have taken a huge ENEMA in the SHALE GAS SCAM and companies are producing Shale Gas at $4-$5 less than break even. You can read all about this in my prior posts on this very sight at the links below:



Porter Stansberry may be correct about the future of the US DOLLAR, but he is completely wrong about the future energy supply. Oh.. by the way, several of the SHALE GAS fields are already in decline. As it pertains to shale gas, the best gas and highest amount of gas is exploited relatively quickly. I don't see SHALE GAS being a huge change in our energy situation.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 13, 2012 - 4:22pm

Col. Angus

You might check craigslist. I responded to an ad there a while back for ASE's at spot.
Turned out it was a pawnshop/jewelry shop who didn't deal much in coins at the time...He stopped selling ASE's at spot after a while, then added a buck over spot to rounds. I kept buying any Peace dollars he had at spot, until just recently when he said he'd have to do $ I got 90% at spot last time.

So, he has gradually been getting higher premiums from the distributors who will buy anything he gets. Last check, they'd pay him +$1.65 for ASE's. He also has started selling to ebay suckers, so there's no reason to sell me Peace dollars at spot anymore.

The down side with him is sales tax. Others I've seen on CL seem to sell at spot, or something ridiculous over spot. I've met a few people for smooth transactions. Availability is sketchy in my area (I've also heard robberies are common but if you exude hate for criminals they sense to pick others, they've no morality, but remarkably good instincts. And you can get a sense over the phone) I've also seen lowball prices offering to idea how much response they get.

Good Luck!


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