Greetings From FreedomFest

457
Fri, Jul 13, 2012 - 12:57pm

As part of my "vacation", I've spent the last two days at "FreedomFest" in Vegas. It has been terrific.

FreedomFest is a 3-day conference revolving around libertarianism and Austrian economics. Yep...right up my alley. And it was in Vegas! Also, right up my alley.

In the past two days, I've met with Ranting Andy and Mike Krieger. I've been interviewed by Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network and I've made the acquaintance of Rick Rule of Sprott and Pat Heller of Liberty Coin Service. All of this was very cool.

However, the main thrill was yesterday. I attended a small luncheon where Steve Forbes introduced The Judge. Judge Napolitano went on to speak to the group for about 30 minutes and then field questions. I got my picture taken with him and he also gave me his business card. I hope to finally schedule that podcast that I've been dreaming about! Again, very cool. The Judge then gave a 45 minute speech to the entire convention. He's just awesome. Great stuff.

Great stuff in the metals today, too. The Big Bad Wolves huffed and puffed again yesterday but once again failed to bring the house down. Santa was right in two fronts: One, they attacked and two, they failed. By no means are we out of the woods yet but nothing too scary, either. Gold remains firmly within it's 10-week basing and bottoming range of 1535-1635. Silver, too, is still in its 27-29 range. The good part of these ranges is this: Once we break out and UP...and we will...it will be clear to absolutely everyone with half a brain that the metals have bottomed. The shorts will either get frightened or squeezed and prices will move up rather quickly. Just be ready.

Two interesting news items I found while surfing with my phone this morning. First, this link to ZH. You should check it out. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-gold-collateral-and-its-unsurprising-london-based-custodian

And then, while at ZH, I saw that Swiss 2-year note is now yielding negative .43%. NEGATIVE POINT FOUR THREE PERCENT! The Germans are also getting in the act as their 2-year is now -0.05%. This is truly incredible. On a hypothetical new issue, for a 1,000,000 franc, Swiss 2-year note, you would have to pay the Swiss government about 10,000 francs for the privilege. Are you freaking kidding me? You've heard me mention ad nauseam how negative, real rates are extraordinarily bullish for gold. How about just plain, old negative rates?? Holy Toledo! https://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-2y-rates-plunge-43bps-all-trust-lost

Lastly, as we continue on our trip down Memory Lane, perhaps today would be a good day to review this idea of negative real interest rates. I wrote this piece back on 2/1/12 and today is as good a time as any to go back and review it. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

OK, that's all. I have to head to the airport soon so I better wrap this up. Please check back later today though as I plan to update this thread with thoughts on the CoT, once it's out. I probably won't be able to do it until this evening, however. It should be an interesting report. For the reporting week, gold was down $42 while total OI rose by 2000 or so. Silver was down $1.40 and saw its total OI climb by 1400.

Have a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  457 Comments

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Bongo Jim
Jul 16, 2012 - 2:04am

@ElGordo

You're supposed to be reading them backwards with the decoder ring set on stun.

Senseosensei
Jul 16, 2012 - 1:47am

hat tips

I prefer more discussion. If you agree or disagree with a post, explain why. Giving a hat tip does not stimulate discussion, and it does not stimulate lurkers to become involved.

El Gordo
Jul 16, 2012 - 1:24am

Desperate for information

I've read over 450 posts on this damn thread and have yet to find anything meaningful, educational, or entertaining. In fact, I am so desperate for good information, I read them all over again just to make sure that I didn't miss anything. I've been reading this drivel for several months now and have yet to find a single shred of good information, except for those occasional posts that I myself put up of course. How much longer am I to be held captive by the Turd spell, knowing for sure that once I leave the site, the one piece of good information that I've been waiting for all this time to see will finally be put up there for all and I will miss it. Maybe if my Mom would just let me out of her basement during the daylight hours sometime I could break the hold Turd has on me. Oh well, tomorrow's another day, and another 400 or 500 worthless posts waiting to be read. Please improve the content of the posts so I don't have to keep reading them over and over to try to glean important data. Thank you.

Pegasus
Jul 16, 2012 - 12:54am
slacker
Jul 16, 2012 - 12:19am
tmosley
Jul 16, 2012 - 12:05am

Big Chief

I beg to differ. North Korea has implemented every plank of the Communist Manifesto, as had both the USSR and China. Probably others as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_manifesto

These were supposed to lead to a classless society. They didn't. Saying there are no Communist countries is like saying there are no countries where the predictions of aether theory (versus what we now call the Standard Model) hold sway. The theory in each case was just wrong. You can't say that the experiments just needed to be performed "better". They were repeated multiple times all around the world and subjected to intense peer review. There are simple observations showing both theories to be wrong.

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

BigChiefagNau
Jul 15, 2012 - 11:38pm

Re: In Communist Countries.........

Trick question. There are no communism countries. There is not one country in the world that governs according to the stated principles of communism. It is only how the tyrants decide to label their system of government. Because at the current time, tyrant or Fascism isn't as trendy as Marxism or communism.

I_ate_the_crow
Jul 15, 2012 - 11:26pm

Balance and Healing

Bard - Notice how I typed "To have a little credibility, economic theory would have to better reflect psychology". So yeah, Austrian theory has a little credibility in my cosmology.

I won't front, I actually had to go look up praxeology. I came across a Von Mises quote "An acting man is defined as one capable of voluntary and conscious behaviour—to be otherwise would be to make one a mere creature who simply reacts to stimuli by instinct." We aren't going to find agreement here because ever since subliminal media programming and mass cultural advertising the latter is exactly what I believe to be the case! It does as you say assume that people are rational, which on a basic level I agree with. But amongst a crowd that is often referring to the "sheeple", which implies a zombie like state of awareness that flies in the face of logic and rationality, praxeology seems to me to be a bit of an outdated way to view human nature. What's interesting to me is that if you look into the antithesis of praxeology, behavioral economics, you will find that the control system is exploiting the ego through this philosophy, which is a blend of Adam Smith/Jeremy Bentham and psychology.

"People want to do what they think others will do," says Cialdini, author of the best seller Influence. "The Obama campaign really got that." The existence of this behavioral dream team — which also included best-selling authors Dan Ariely of MIT (Predictably Irrational) and Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein of the University of Chicago (Nudge) as well as Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman of Princeton — has never been publicly disclosed, even though its members gave Obama white papers on messaging, fundraising and rumor control as well as voter mobilization.

https://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1889153,00.html

This dovetails nicely with a one of XTY's comments: All we can use to attempt to figure this out is the sorry history of mankind - but I don't actually find it all that sorry, as the idea of freedom has grown from nought to something splendid in 2000 years.

Personally I am partial to Stefan Molyneux's characterization of this period, which can fairly be summarized with "none are more hopelessly enslaved than those who believe they are free". In other words, "producers" of the global plantation who are under the illusion of freedom are far more productive for the control system. Nowhere is that illusion greater than on the (formerly) most free plantation of them all, America.

And so this is the context we find ourselves in. People that worked hard and saved are being squeezed because it is no longer necessary for the middle class in this country to have the freedom to be exceptionally productive. The intentional bloating of the welfare state makes it seem obvious that the control system has been intentionally encouraging the productive to seek the Austrian/Libertarian ideology and its offshoots, which as I've explained, in my opinion, to have no viable solutions other than calls for "free markets" and the collapse of human civilization.

Frankly I am looking for realistic and proactive paradigm shattering solutions, not more equitable treatment as a "producer" for the whip crackers or a bunker of paranoia to ride out the apocalypse in. My focus is like a laser beam on busting the control system, both spiritually and physically, so I hope no one implies any personal offense in any of my posts because it is not intended.

There are good ideas for proactive solutions in all ideologies which have been hidden in different compartments so as to prevent them from being put together. Left and right, up and down. Labels and ideological dogma blind. I think if we studied the role of the shaman in ancient culture we might arrive at balanced ideas that heal rather than divide.

agNau
Jul 15, 2012 - 11:24pm

In Communist Countries........

is there a futures market? National Resources Preparedness act. MF Global PFG Best ?

leisure
Jul 15, 2012 - 11:21pm

One more thing about Intrade......

I'm very aware of counter party risk, but I've done biz there for a while. Made a nice score from the 08 election, and also recently hit the Obamacare SC ruling (that was a 4-1 dog!)

They keep my funds in a segregated account, in my name, complete with bank statements from the Bank of Ireland. They do it free for higher account balances, or for a nominal ($50?) charge for smaller accounts. Yes, I still have the bank counter party risk, but that's a risk I'm willing to take, and also big reason I hold PM's as a hedge....

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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