Santa Tried To Warn Us

Thu, Jul 12, 2012 - 10:12am

As we watch the metals get savagely beaten this morning, I'm reminded of the warning that Santa posted last Friday and again yesterday. The Cartel is trying again to take down paper price. Will they succeed? Maybe...

Here are the two main components of his post. Remember, this was first posted last Friday so when he says "next week", he's talking about now:

"Next week is the war between manipulation of gold by the West, and appetite for buying gold in the East, both from friendlies and enemies. Anyone that does not see today’s gold market as a rig is blind or brain dead. There is a full blown crisis in Western world banking today, right here and now. There is a full blown crisis in sovereign debt of some weaker nations as in a very short while certain government will be out of money. The Eurosnobs hate each other which does not make for a fast reconciliation of a crisis."

"Next week will be the time the cartel tries to break the gold price again. They have failed seven times, and will fail on the 8th. Gold is going to $3500 and above. All the lying and conniving only means the price will go higher. Just as Morgan’s whale could not fight the market, the cartel cannot fight gold as we have a flight away from all fiat currencies."

So, there you go. As you know I, too, have been concerned about a short-duration, Cartel-inspired plunge that would attempt to take out the plethora of sell stops below 1525 and 26. Can they pull this off? You know they want to. Can they? That is the question. Global physical demand remains extraordinarily strong ( so driving down paper price will only increase the flow out of the LBMA member vaults. We'll justhave to see how this battle plays out.
For today's trip into the archives I offer you this: Written on 12/19/10, I still look back upon it as one of my favorites. Here's the summary paragraph:

"The end of US hegemony is near and with it, the end of the US dollar as "world reserve currency". This catastrophe and all in entails could have been avoided with responsible leadership and an educated/involved populace. However, selfishly, we in the US decided it was best to pursue a plan where we foolishly thought our recklessness was beneficial. This attitude was best summarized by republocrat and Keynesian legend, John Connally, who, as the coin was dropped in 1973, told the world that "the dollar is our currency but it is your problem". Sadly, we allowed Mr. Connally to be prescient for almost 40 years but the world is about to turn the tables. Soon...very soon...the coin will finally reach the narrow end of the funnel and the bottom will simply drop out. What happens next will not be fun and games."

​OK, that's all for now. I've got a full day of meetings ahead of me but I'll be watching this closely and I'll certainly update the blog if needed. Hang in there and be patient.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 12, 2012 - 2:58pm
robov Big Buffalo
Jul 12, 2012 - 3:03pm

@ Big Buffalo

At don't see a close today above 1576 as hugely significant. What I see looking at the Net Dania daily is a rally right off the lower uptrend line creating another higher low and forming a bullish Hammer stick candle. The bigger key to me is whether we continue to rally back up toward the upper trend line in this wedge formation around the 1600 level and then can we break through it and hold above it. So far it has been knocked down each time. The apex of the wedge is mid August and the closer we get to that apex before the breakout, whether up or down, the weaker the breakout generally is. A confirmed breakout to the upside through or around the 1600 level would give an upside target of around 1744. A confirmed downside breakout through 1550 would give a target just above 1400. If the fall trend holds and Indian gold buying demand increases we should get further upside than down. Combine that with continued fiat currencies issues and sovereign debt issues. I believe this next test of the upper trend line will decide which direction the metals are heading. In silver the upper trend breakout level now lies between 27.50 & 28. I would think Sprotts announcement today to acquire almost 8 M ozs of silver would be price bullish as well. All just MHO of course.

Big Buffalo
Jul 12, 2012 - 3:23pm

@ robov

Thanks! Very helpful.

Jul 12, 2012 - 3:42pm

Not invincible

They can play this leveraged game as long as they have enough gold to back it with. That and the gold market is tiny compared to the stock market. Well, they manipulate that too, but it's easier to manipulate the gold market.

Even so, all they've managed to do is just make it go sideways for a while, while bleeding physical gold out of all their orifices.

Basically, it'll continue until it doesn't and then they will be gone forever. They know this as well as we do, which is why they hold onto their side of things so hard.

I find it highly amusing that bitcoin reacts to all the news today by going up to $7.20 and paper gold reacts by going sideways. Silver seems to be perking up. Maybe it's finally silver's time to shine?

I suppose the real lesson in all of this, is do not play in a rigged market. When you need your gold (or other non-dollar hard assets), trust me, JPM et al will not matter. They'll just be - irrelevant.

Jul 12, 2012 - 3:44pm

UST's, Gold and the Fed

Is it possible that the U.S will never have to face or declare a default if the Fed is on the hook and not the US Treasury Dept.

My line of thinking is that if the Fed is a private banking entity within the US and has been buying UST's consistently and in great numbers. Estimated to be about 70% of all UST's out there in total with 30% pr so held by other countries.

My thinking is if the Fed takes the hit on US debt (instead of the holders of UST's abroad) the US Treasury (and technically the US) would be off the hook for any default or debt hangover. It would be extinguished by a private hands, albeit the biggest CB in the world, but nonetheless considered private by themselves and everyone to some degree. That's the premise and structure that it was built upon.

Why would the Fed do such a thing and risk it's reputation by absorbing the 'loss' in UST's?

What if the US Treasury has been giving/selling gold to the Fed all along in lieu of the Fed buying all of the UST debt they've been buying up and in an increasing amount to this date?

If the Fed is perceived to be weakened by taking on such a huge paper UST loss on it's books (many trillions) then wouldn't it also be able to benefit from any or all gold it might have in it's possession at the time the USD comes under fire as weaker at the same time that gold starts to reverse course the other way in price/valuation as all paper currencies come under fire and the path to trust and value is then replaced by gold? Much higher priced gold that the Fed now has?

If the Fed has been sold/given all the US gold as collateral then they would have (by far) the most on the planet and would then be able to continue the USD FRN (or whatever it may be called) in the future.

And whom do you think would have some use right now for lots of leveraged gold right now that is in the hands of the worlds largest private/CB? The bullion banking cartels? It's not real hard to project how it would be easy for this to take place among these big entities on a level we are just starting to recognize or witness crumble all around us.

They would have instant credibility as they would be the one holding the gold who also took the UST loss on the chin. But would there have ever actually been a loss of money that was created from nothing to buy something (UST) that was created from nothing? Nope. It's all been recycled as it was created from nothing and served the purpose.

In the end, the Fed could hold the US Treasury gold as a separate entity and then be quite credible and relevant once again going forward after they (The Fed/TPTB) decide to readjust the valuation to gold in a crazy amount. More then $50k as a starter guess. Maybe much, much higher. And the Fed would have the most gold by far to do so.

Fed wins either way. Holders of all UST's get insulated somewhat from the Fed taking the hit as they buy up more and more of the US Treasury's own debt and then take the loss for everyone (seemingly). US taxpayer citizens lose all the way around.

The question is...if a debtor (The Fed) voluntarily forgives a debtee (U.S. Treasury) is it a real default or just simply loan forgiveness like a ripped up IOU?

What if the US Treasury is only left with a outstanding 2o-30% UST debt obligation to everyone else? That greatly reduced number sounds pretty manageable to me.

It's a sick scenario and one I could see playing out in that manner or one similar. We're witnessing the greatest and largest shell game in history imho.

Jul 12, 2012 - 3:47pm

Way more important than the price of metals.

Think it's just the banksters who want to own you?

Below is link to send a pre-written letter to your house rep.:

Jul 12, 2012 - 3:51pm

I picked up 5 AGE and 1

I picked up 5 AGE and 1 Krug today. There is an interesting change in the chart since mid May. Who knows if it will hold but Im hopeful. I like the very slow higher lows type of rise.

Jul 12, 2012 - 3:53pm

Content from above post on Monsanto GMO bill

Get the Monsanto rider out of the 2013 Agriculture Appropriations Bill (if you haven't taken action on that yet, please click here:

In the meantime, Monsanto has opened another line of attack, this time in the U.S. House of Representative's version of the Farm Bill.

The House Farm Bill contains HR 872, the so-called Reducing Regulatory Burdens Act, which stops the EPA from reviewing new and expanded uses of pesticides and requires the USDA to make the approval of new genetically engineered crops easier and faster, limiting USDA review to 180 days.

While the USDA has never rejected a new GMO crop, public opposition, environmental concerns and litigation to protect farmers have slowed new approvals. This bill, to give Monsanto and the other biotechnology companies a free pass for new GMOs, includes a provision limiting USDA environmental review to a narrow evaluation of plant pest risks, even though the courts have ruled that a full environmental impact statement is required and must take into consideration the real threats of GMO crops, including "the potential elimination of a farmer's choice to grow non-genetically engineered crops, or a consumer's choice to eat non-genetically engineered food." More on the Monsanto Farm Bill rider from the Center for Food Safety: The proposed biotech riders seek to:
  • Outlaw any review of GE crops' impacts under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act (ESA), or any other environmental law, or by any other agency other than USDA. For example, harm to protected species could occur without any input from our expert wildlife agencies.
  • Prohibit other agencies from offering expert input in the review process and instead limit review to solely USDA under the PPA. However, meaningful review would likely be eliminated by this rider, as USDA's analysis of potential harmful impacts is barred from informing any approval decision. The agency is also barred from using its broader statutory authority granted in the PPA of 2000, and instead is limited to its old 1957 Federal Plant Pest Act authority.
  • Force the backdoor approval of GE crops, even if USDA has not reviewed and approved them, through unreasonably short deadlines, which, if not met by the agency, would default to immediate approval and commercialization. The provisions would also bar any agency funds be spent on impacts analysis beyond the riders' narrow and time-forced approval.
  • Codify a dangerous national policy of allowing transgenic contamination in crops and foods, risking loss of GE-sensitive domestic and export markets and loss of biodiversity.
  • Limit EPA's oversight of biotech crops engineered to produce or contain a pesticide by forcing the agency to choose the least burdensome choice for industry, regardless of environmental consequences.
Jul 12, 2012 - 3:55pm

Square One

...aaaand the price of Gold is almost back to where we started from.

Turd, I've told you before, and I will keep on telling you: please stop taking yourself on this continuous emotional rollercoaster! Stop treating this whole thing like a day (or even minute!) trader because you end up burning yourself out! No wonder you need a vacation!

Regarding the 'big picture' I completely agree with you, so prepare, buy some dips, stay healthy and for the rest just sit back and enjoy the show. Stop working yourself up about "Evil Empires" and "wicked Witches" because one day their game will be up. However, not you, nor any other chartist will be able to predict that day by drawing a few lines on some charts. That day will happen like any other Black Swan event: unexpectedly!

Wishing you well and with best regards,


Jul 12, 2012 - 3:56pm


Yeah, that's right. Iran doesn't even have any nuclear bombs yet. And if they made them, they would probably be small ones. And there's no chance radical Islam would gain control of them. And even if they did they would never use them on Israel because they're scared of us. Glad we cleared that up.

Bluefin771 SRSrocco
Jul 12, 2012 - 3:57pm

@Big Trouble on the Horizon

In a condition if (when) the Treasury bubble bursts, this will not be good for business (worldwide). Until things get sorted out, because I really doubt this will be a well planned and executed transitioning, industrial production is likely to take a big hit. As Jeff Nielson and SRSrocco have previously pointed out, the lion's share of silver production comes as a byproduct of base metal mining. There are very few mines in the world today where silver is the primary metal being produced. And there is a whale of a difference between mining base metal and one gets some silver versus mining silver and one gets some base metal.

So exactly how high will silver have to be priced to make it worthwhile to be the primary metal sought? Jeff's ballpark of adding a zero on the end seems a good place to start. Certainly no higher than infinity.

I Run Bartertown
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:01pm

Straight outta' the Holy Land, OG

"We have, for example, AIPAC, which was essentially constructed just to drive agenda in Washington DC. And it succeeds admirably. And we brag about it. Again, it’s just what we do...But the funny part is when any anti-Semite or anti-Israel person starts to spout stuff like, “The Jews control the media!” and “The Jews control Washington!”

Suddenly we’re up in arms. We create huge campaigns to take these people down. We do what we can to put them out of work. We publish articles. We’ve created entire organizations that exist just to tell everyone that the Jews don’t control nothin’. No, we don’t control the media, we don’t have any more sway in DC than anyone else. No, no, no, we swear: We’re just like everybody else!...Does anyone else (who’s not a bigot) see the irony of this?

Let’s be honest with ourselves, here, fellow Jews. We do control the media. We’ve got so many dudes up in the executive offices in all the big movie production companies it’s almost obscene. ... Did you know that all eight major film studios are run by Jews?...But that’s not all. We also control the ads that go on those TV shows...The ADL chairman, Abe Foxman, was interviewed in a great article about the subject and he said that he “would prefer people say that many executives in the industry ‘happen to be Jewish.’” This just about sums up the party line.

...Here I am, an idealistic little kid that goes to a bottom 50 school (ASU) who wants to do some grassroots advocacy, and these guys are literally talking about infiltrating the government. Intense...

The truth is, the anti-Semites got it right. We Jews have something planted in each one of us that makes us completely different from every group in the world. We’re talking about a group of people that just got put in death camps, endured pogroms, their whole families decimated. And then they came to America, the one place that ever really let them have as much power as they wanted, and suddenly they’re taking over. Please don’t tell me that any other group in the world has ever done that. Only the Jews. And we’ve done it before. That’s why the Jews were enslaved in Egypt. We were too successful. Go look at the Torah — it’s right there. And we did it in Germany too.

No, we’re different. We’re special.

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:01pm

Gotta buy PSLV today

Premium went down below 3% today! That is a good tell to buy Silver!

Sprott decided it was time to buy, basically telling everybody else, its time to buy!

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:02pm

john deere indicator

the metals looked grim when i went out to mow the lawn this morning (overdue from tractor maintenance issues). when i came back in this afternoon, voici! fubm!

maybe i should mow more often.

(repost from prev. thread)

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:02pm

The last time the USDX was

The last time the USDX was this high was mid 2010. Gold was $350+ lower.

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:06pm

My nerves are in shreds

Underwater, not underwater, underwater. And that's just today.

I may have to sell this damn silver next time it hits $28 just to get some sleep

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:06pm

Bizarre Case of Failed Broker

Bizarre Case of Failed Broker Gets Even Stranger Being on Bizarro World makes the case normal...

CaribSurfKing1 Punk-Assets
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:08pm

That is when overt QE ended

All the other currencies since, are printing faster than USD is!

Which is frankly, hard to fathom!

Right now, they are just not printing fast enough, Krugman in some sick way is right!

CaribSurfKing1 tpbeta
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:12pm

General public buy's at the top and sells at the bottom

Question is, when will you buy back in?

Has anything changed in the fundamentals?

Is is suddenly much cheaper to mine Silver? Bolivia ring a bell?

Have they started replacing Silver with Copper in electronics?

Big Buffalo
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:13pm

Last ten minutes..

nothing like a little slap in the last ten minutes, just so they can show Who's the Boss.

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:13pm

60 tons!


I Run Bartertown
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:15pm
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:16pm

Gold to Hit $2,000 by

Gold to Hit $2,000 by Year-End on More Fed Easing: Merrill Hmmm, I would trust it way more if it came from CEO of Turd Enterprises himself...

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:17pm
CaribSurfKing1 recaptureamerica
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:18pm

Bernanke just screamed

I want to know did they ship the Gold to Iran, or is it held in the Fed of NY under a different paper name, hahaha!

Dagney Taggart
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:19pm


Isn't Turkey a NATO ally with US nuclear weapons stations? I'm confused why they would do this.

Are the thieves turning on each other?

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:19pm

I think it would be an interesting endeavor............

At one time I HAD well over 2000 ounces of silver. Monthly I have been trying to slowly replace it. Various accidents over the years have reduced my holdings to a few coins.

It would be interesting to know how many physical ounces Turdville as a whole has lost throughout the years?

The premise being I believe a minimum 100-1 leverage through paper has been achieved. Was I at one time tying up over 200,000 ounces of paper leverage?

WHEN the SHTF how much physical has our community at large tied up or lost through various accidents? I'm thinking it's quite a bit; when compared to an annual global supply it could be an eye opener.

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:21pm
Jul 12, 2012 - 4:23pm

Thars gold in dem dar hills...garbage hills!

Want Precious Metals? Forget Mines, Go to Landfills

Jul 12, 2012 - 4:25pm


I did my own Mexican protest today and bought 2 rolls of Silver Libertads!

(it was the wife's choice... she liked the fact that the coin has titties)


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