New Thread

273
Mon, Jul 9, 2012 - 12:52pm

This has been a crazy, discombobulated morning. You need a new thread but I don't have the time to give it the attention it deserves. Here's a start and I'll add more later.

First of all, the charts I printed about 3 hours ago. Note that gold is basing within a pennant. Note that silver remains trapped in a descending triangle that will be closing very soon.

Check out these two links from ZH:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/perfect-storm-santelli-meets-farage

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/effects-increasing-global-money-supply-gold

And our pal Ned was on CNBC Europe again today. He did a masterful job of handling the moronic talking heads while still inserting all of his points regarding the ongoing manipulation of the metals. He sent me the link via email. Here's the response I sent back:

1) That woman anchor is hopelessly clueless. 2) "Bold proclamation" guy seems like a real tool.
3) I think the chick to your right has the hots for you
4) The guy in the striped tie is a complete idiot
5) All-in-all, just goes to show how far we have to go...

And here's the CNBS link:

https://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000100465&play=1

That's all for this moment. I'll update after the CoT from last week finally gets released at 3:30 EDT...about 2.5 hours from now.

TF

4:30 p.m. EDT UPDATE:

​The latest CoT is finally out and....it sucks! When reviewing the data, keep in mind that the survey was taken almost a week ago, at the Comex close on 7/3/12. Also keep in mind the price action leading up to the survey.

Friday 6/29: Gold up $54 and OI up 1,600. Silver up $1.32 and OI down 1400.

Monday 7/2: Gold down $6.50 and OI down 600. Silver down $0.11 and OI down 700.

Tuesday 7/3: Gold up $24 and OI up 9,200. Silver up $0.78 and OI down another 500.

So, for the three days immediately preceding the report, gold was UP over $70 and its total OI rose by over 10,000 contracts. Silver was UP $2 and its OI only rose by 200 contracts.

In hindsight, are any of you surprised that the metals got smashed on Thursday and Friday???

Here's the sucky data:

GOLD

For the week, the large spec sheep added a net long of 14,500. The small spec baby sheep added a net long of almost 8,000. The all-knowing, omniscient Cartel added net short 22,500 contracts! ​The crooks sold a mere 800 of their longs, bringing the total long position to 154,926. However, they added 21,674 new shorts! They grew their total short position by 7% in one week!!! SEVEN FREAKING PERCENT! IN ONE WEEK!

  • Clearly, all of their mining clients decided to hedge, all at once.
  • Clearly, they innocently added to their short positions which, of course, is a balance of long positions somewhere else on the planet.
  • ​Clearly, they're very smart and just got lucky this time as the market sold off on Thursday and Friday.
  • Clearly, these collusive, criminal bastards absorbed the buying early in the week by issuing new paper shorts. They then proceeded to rig the takedown on Thursday and Friday.

And now you know how/why an 80,000 NFP can be translated into a PM selloff.

SILVER

​Very disappointing. Keep in mind that, for the reporting week, total OI fell by over 4,000 contracts. We lost the majority into First Notice Day of the July12 and then were stable. The large spec and the small spec shorts covered nearly 6,000 contracts. I guess we know who was short into contract expiration and then had to cover. There's your explanation for the $1.32 rise on 6/29. The real downer is The Silver Cartel. After reaching a have-to-be-a-misprint net short ratio of just 1.25:1 on the 6/26 CoT, The Evil Empire pitched 2,788 longs and added 2,555 new shorts. This brings their cumulative net short position to 17,350 contracts (pretty much all JPM per Uncle Ted) and a new net short ratio of 1.38:1. This is still a very bullish ratio but the fact that they are so aggressively adding shorts here (at $28, for pete's sake!) is a bit unnerving. This is a serious warning flag for that potential run at the sellstops below $26. A serious warning flag. Again, I'm not saying that it has to happen and physical supply is so tight that it would seem improbable. However, the prospect of harvesting stops below $26 has to have the EE salivating and the fact that they added so many new shorts last week has me very concerned that they are preparing to give it a go. Be cautious and don't be caught off-guard!

That's all for today. I need to go record a podcast where I'll go into more detail. Hang in there everyone.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  273 Comments

Patrancus
Jul 9, 2012 - 12:52pm

First

First

achmachat
Jul 9, 2012 - 12:53pm

yay!

looking forward to the updated CoT!

:-)

Patrancus
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:00pm

Come on Rick

Come on Rick, its Farage, not Farand, get in the game.

Himalaya
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:04pm

So I am the winner!!!!!

Happy to win, am a proud owner of the TFMR hat!!! Thanks

beardeus
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:06pm

Ed reminds me of Harry Potter...

Other than that good video!

Bum in the library...
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:08pm

great video!  thanks for

great video! thanks for sharing Turd.

Mr. Fix
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:08pm

Still Stacking.......

Still Stacking.......

Be Prepared
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:09pm

Not First... but Still Loving being In Turdland!

It's Monday.... and I could look at the world as there's a long week in front of me, but I choose to see that I am above the ground, rather than below it and the sun is shining.... and there's another chance to learn, to grow, to give and to love... not bad at all... really! :-)

Be Prepared
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:10pm
Be Prepared
Jul 9, 2012 - 1:12pm

Hobo Sammy kicking the can to a land beyond the edge...

The Cliff theme seems to becoming a very dominant trend.... doesn't it?

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

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10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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