New Thread

Mon, Jul 9, 2012 - 12:52pm

This has been a crazy, discombobulated morning. You need a new thread but I don't have the time to give it the attention it deserves. Here's a start and I'll add more later.

First of all, the charts I printed about 3 hours ago. Note that gold is basing within a pennant. Note that silver remains trapped in a descending triangle that will be closing very soon.

Check out these two links from ZH:

And our pal Ned was on CNBC Europe again today. He did a masterful job of handling the moronic talking heads while still inserting all of his points regarding the ongoing manipulation of the metals. He sent me the link via email. Here's the response I sent back:

1) That woman anchor is hopelessly clueless. 2) "Bold proclamation" guy seems like a real tool.
3) I think the chick to your right has the hots for you
4) The guy in the striped tie is a complete idiot
5) All-in-all, just goes to show how far we have to go...

And here's the CNBS link:

That's all for this moment. I'll update after the CoT from last week finally gets released at 3:30 EDT...about 2.5 hours from now.


4:30 p.m. EDT UPDATE:

​The latest CoT is finally out sucks! When reviewing the data, keep in mind that the survey was taken almost a week ago, at the Comex close on 7/3/12. Also keep in mind the price action leading up to the survey.

Friday 6/29: Gold up $54 and OI up 1,600. Silver up $1.32 and OI down 1400.

Monday 7/2: Gold down $6.50 and OI down 600. Silver down $0.11 and OI down 700.

Tuesday 7/3: Gold up $24 and OI up 9,200. Silver up $0.78 and OI down another 500.

So, for the three days immediately preceding the report, gold was UP over $70 and its total OI rose by over 10,000 contracts. Silver was UP $2 and its OI only rose by 200 contracts.

In hindsight, are any of you surprised that the metals got smashed on Thursday and Friday???

Here's the sucky data:


For the week, the large spec sheep added a net long of 14,500. The small spec baby sheep added a net long of almost 8,000. The all-knowing, omniscient Cartel added net short 22,500 contracts! ​The crooks sold a mere 800 of their longs, bringing the total long position to 154,926. However, they added 21,674 new shorts! They grew their total short position by 7% in one week!!! SEVEN FREAKING PERCENT! IN ONE WEEK!

  • Clearly, all of their mining clients decided to hedge, all at once.
  • Clearly, they innocently added to their short positions which, of course, is a balance of long positions somewhere else on the planet.
  • ​Clearly, they're very smart and just got lucky this time as the market sold off on Thursday and Friday.
  • Clearly, these collusive, criminal bastards absorbed the buying early in the week by issuing new paper shorts. They then proceeded to rig the takedown on Thursday and Friday.

And now you know how/why an 80,000 NFP can be translated into a PM selloff.


​Very disappointing. Keep in mind that, for the reporting week, total OI fell by over 4,000 contracts. We lost the majority into First Notice Day of the July12 and then were stable. The large spec and the small spec shorts covered nearly 6,000 contracts. I guess we know who was short into contract expiration and then had to cover. There's your explanation for the $1.32 rise on 6/29. The real downer is The Silver Cartel. After reaching a have-to-be-a-misprint net short ratio of just 1.25:1 on the 6/26 CoT, The Evil Empire pitched 2,788 longs and added 2,555 new shorts. This brings their cumulative net short position to 17,350 contracts (pretty much all JPM per Uncle Ted) and a new net short ratio of 1.38:1. This is still a very bullish ratio but the fact that they are so aggressively adding shorts here (at $28, for pete's sake!) is a bit unnerving. This is a serious warning flag for that potential run at the sellstops below $26. A serious warning flag. Again, I'm not saying that it has to happen and physical supply is so tight that it would seem improbable. However, the prospect of harvesting stops below $26 has to have the EE salivating and the fact that they added so many new shorts last week has me very concerned that they are preparing to give it a go. Be cautious and don't be caught off-guard!

That's all for today. I need to go record a podcast where I'll go into more detail. Hang in there everyone.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Patrancus · Jul 9, 2012 - 12:52pm



achmachat · Jul 9, 2012 - 12:53pm


looking forward to the updated CoT!


Patrancus · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:00pm

Come on Rick

Come on Rick, its Farage, not Farand, get in the game.

Himalaya · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:04pm

So I am the winner!!!!!

Happy to win, am a proud owner of the TFMR hat!!! Thanks

beardeus · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:06pm

Ed reminds me of Harry Potter...

Other than that good video!

Bum in the library... · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:08pm

great video!  thanks for

great video! thanks for sharing Turd.

Mr. Fix · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:08pm

Still Stacking.......

Still Stacking.......

Be Prepared · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:09pm

Not First... but Still Loving being In Turdland!

It's Monday.... and I could look at the world as there's a long week in front of me, but I choose to see that I am above the ground, rather than below it and the sun is shining.... and there's another chance to learn, to grow, to give and to love... not bad at all... really! :-)

Be Prepared · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:12pm

Hobo Sammy kicking the can to a land beyond the edge...

The Cliff theme seems to becoming a very dominant trend.... doesn't it?

Silver Monkey · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:13pm

With the miners heading lower

Conventional wisdom would suggest silver heading lower out of the pennant. sad

Cononish1314 Be Prepared · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:22pm

Little old "European

Little old "European socialist" me thinks it might be a good idea to give money to constructive public works without a massive layer of self-serving managerialism [Google "edinburgh trams" for a get-out clause on this].

So what did happen to the monolines that were in trouble in 2008 anyway?

Jeanne d'Arc · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:29pm

Silver Monkey/Miners

@SilverMonkey - my thoughts exactly:

(and the miners have been great predictors of the broader metals market of late. Ignore them at your peril!)

dropout · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:30pm

Mixed Bag ~ Summer Doldrums

The global bourses are all marginally in the red, oil is up and gold is up about ten bucks.

The LIBOR scandal is just getting started, with Deutsche Bank now being officially investigated and trading down five percent.

China lashes out against those who live in glass houses, that continue to throw stones!

The MED continues to be a powder keg, with fuse attached just waiting for the trigger event touch off.

Greece capitulates. Waits for verdict. Spain and Italy to get no bailout.

Rumours abound of large currency printing contract for a European country. Germany?

Meanwhile, Summer as usual in the Hamptons, except for the hotter than usual weather.

Speaking of hot weather, corn is up 40% along with soy beans, as this years promising bumper crops continue to be sun burnt in the ongoing drought of 2012. Higher food prices coming. 

Big problems with ATM's continue, now effecting Russia. Who's next?

Flight away from using the US dollar as a medium of exchange between countries continues unabated, with the latest being between Australia and China. 

The good news is that Iceland is well on the road to a "true" recovery. That comes from telling the TBTF banks to "stuff it where the sun don't shine!" 

Overdue for the TBTF Wall Street crowd to be told the exact same thing.

Some choice come November? Bad or worse? When it comes to a choice of the lessor of two evils ~ No choice seems the best choice!

Dr G · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:30pm

Still stacking, but holding

Still stacking, but holding the majority of $ for a later date. That pattern in silver has be cautious that it will break to the downside.

Sisyphus · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:31pm

Short attention spans

Why does everything have to be 3-minute chunks? The Rick and Nigel Show would have been perfect entertainment; well worth half an hour. CNBC spends half its time in adverts, mainly advertising itself - what's the point of that?

SV · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:35pm

Silver Liberation Army

Free Silver Liberation Army Silver Ships Next Week! Sign Up Now For Your Chance

indosil · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:43pm


A very strange phenomenon is taking place at the Indian Commodity Exchange...according to the Indian Closing Time Gold closed around $1583 on saturday..silver around 27.14.Today the Indian Rupee weakened against $...this means Gold & SIlver should have risen by around Rs 100 & silver Rs Gold is around the $1590 mark & Silver around $27.50...but hardly an increment of Rs 30 & Rs 200....strange very strange!!!!!!!!!!!! Cartel getting stronger in the Indian Market as well

Himalaya · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:47pm


I need your shipping info please.

tyberious · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:53pm

Circle Jerks

[FULL DISCLOSURE: I have no positions in any miners, and no plans to instigate any during the next few weeks. I have no position in physical silver. I am long physical gold, but may go short at any time and without notice.]

Posted by Jeanne d'Arc on Monday, July 09, 2012 Labels: AGQ (Arian), GDX, gold miners, HUI, NEM, Quirkafleeg, SIL, silver miners, Sprott


Jeanne d'Arc said...

Thanks as usual @Warren for the fabulous artwork :-)

Burpy Sheep said...

"I'd been waiting all weekend for a phone call from Gonzalo Lira, whom I was hoping might offer me a lucrative deal to make podcasts for our ready-primed and pliable audience."

Oh, Jeanne. When you're good, you're very, very good. And when you're bad, you're still pretty good ;-)

But when you're naughty, you're the best! :-)

Keep doing what you do. You're on the right trail.

Excalibur · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:53pm


I like getting your Indian updates that give us important news from the ground of the mighty gold nation. (As a winter migrant to India from the UK, it also makes me think of wonderful times in your country).

· Jul 9, 2012 - 1:55pm

More apologies

Again, my apologies and thanks to the subscribers of TTM.

The initial builders so f'd it up that every time the new guys go to fix something, it uncovers a new problem. I am of the distinct impression that this was done deliberately and I am urging GL to consider legal action.

Regardless, please know that no one is more frustrated than I am with this entire process. You have my promise and firm commitment that the site will either work perfectly, very soon, or we'll just shut the whole thing down and start over.

tyberious · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:58pm

I allow these people to

I allow these people to continue posting here because I'm trying to be fair and, whenever anyone has been banned from TFMR in the past, I'm the one that always has to deal with all of the bullshit "Hey, I'm getting censored. I have 1st Amendment rights!" So, most of the time, it's simply not worth it.

With regards to this matter, however, I'm reaching the end of my patience.

I Run Bartertown · Jul 9, 2012 - 1:59pm
Jeanne d'Arc tyberious · Jul 9, 2012 - 2:05pm

That's hardly fair,

That's hardly fair, Tyberious. I was just posting a link to back up what Silver Monkey was saying, with some TA that I did today. If the mods think it's either irrelevant or offensive, then please go ahead (mods) and delete it - I won't take any offence.

But to give a bit more context to the post which you took completely out of context: I was long on the miners then got out when things went bad, and now I'm looking for a good entry point to get back in. I'm long on physical gold, but not suicidally so - if the market changes, then I'll move with it.

Is that so bad? Is that so irresponsible a thing to write? And yes, I thanked a co-contributor for doing the picture - is that bad? And no, I'm no more responsible for what someone else (Mr Sheep) leaves as a comment than Turd is for his commentators.

Regardless, I'll be damned if I get accused of hi-jacking a thread again, so I'm just NOT going to get into all this nonsense on Turd's site beyond this response. I put up a link which I thought was relevant to metals traders/investors. If it's not, then fine - Jane: please delete it. But I'm not going to get caught into an argument about it anymore than I already have done. Shish.

Bugging off now...

Grigeo TF · Jul 9, 2012 - 2:09pm

I'm reaching the end of my patience.

Turd, Blythe just sent one of her lackeys to stalk you. Don't sweat it :)

Posted by Screwtape:

"The demonisation of Blythe Masters on the silverogosphere is, to me, one of the most distasteful, misogynistic, cruel and infantile aspects of the community. ... Do I respect someone who raises millions of dollars a year for breast cancer charities? Yes, I do. .....Do I like to see a strong, ambitious, woman rise in a notoriously sexist industry through talent and hard work? Yes I do."
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