As If You Needed More Proof...

...Of what a joke the metals markets have become. Up. Down. All on the "non-news" of an 80,000 NFP. As John Williams told us in last week's podcast, the NFP data point is meaningless if you take it as a stand-alone indicator. It simply provides a reason for HFTs to scalp each other. Witness today.

"Conventional" economic wisdom always held that the U.S. economy had to add 200,000 jobs per month to be considered "growing". The last three months...not so much. In fact, Q2 of 2012 was the worst quarterly performance since mid 2010. And what happened in November 2010??

Regardless, the metals spiked on the news because it was another lousy data point. They then almost as quickly get squashed as The Cartel Monkeys and the HFTs jam things back down, tripping sell stops along the way. I gave up (for now) trying to trade this nonsense late last year. It's simply too frustrating for me to find it enjoyable. Andy, on the other hand, relishes in the volatility and, again, that is why I jumped at the opportunity to partner with him. I do not have the expertise nor do I have the patience to trade these conditions. Andy does and, consequently, The Army is having another very good day. He nailed it. Here's just one of his entries, from an hour or so before the headlines:

06:47:50 andy: Regardless of news the reaction I expect from NFP will be extremely volatile and 2 way. Obviously if we see a very bad # gold will take off to the upside but with good size stair step retracements. If the news is bullish I expect a large initial spike down, if the news is neutral then the 2 way action will be much more volatile. Usually the initial spike is reversed at some point as algo’s attempt to game real flows.

Again, anyone attempting to trade these markets without some type of experienced guidance, is likely doomed to failure. Sort of like a climber taking off toward the peak without a sherpa. (Perhaps Pining can take the pic below or something similar and add Andy's face to it. smiley)

Here are a couple of 1-minute charts just for fun.

{And I'll state this again as clearly as possible because there is confusion every single time I mention Andy's service. 99% of you should not be attempting to trade gold and silver on the Comex. Volume is too thin and the potential for loss is too great. I recognize, though, that there are still those out there that insist upon trading. Some folks even do it for a living. It is for them that this service is designed. The rest of us simply need to keep on stacking, preparing for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment.}

Anyway, the metals continue rangebound. I had hoped earlier this week that today would be the day that they would finally break out. Nuts, I guess not. Regardless, I still expect a fun, explosive summer and remainder of 2012. We just need to remain patient.

For anyone that missed it, here are the two parts of the conversation that the Silver Doc and I had earlier this week. You might enjoy it.

Lastly, don't forget that the latest Hat Contest ends today. The winners will be determined this time by the closing prices shown on the kitco charts on the homepage. This will be at 5:15 EDT. I'll have a new post on Saturday to announce the official winners.

The CoT will be pretty interesting again today so please be sure to check back after 3:30 EDT as I will be adding some thoughts in the comments section of this thread. Thanks again to everyone for playing along. Have a fun day!



achmachat's picture


the only winning move is to stack the real physical!

dgstage's picture


I signed up for TTM and have not been able to log in. I can,t seem to get a response from support.


Turd Ferguson's picture

Please email me your user name


tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com

I'll be sure to get it fixed. Thanks for your patience.

Response to: Turd
Puck T. Smith's picture


I spoke too soon.

Mudsharkbytes's picture

In the time I took to read this …

I went from 5th, to 5th.

Beastly Stack's picture

Yen and Treasuries

The Jap Yen and US Notes fly and gold gets taken to the woodshed!

Great job,f'n brainless!

Wouldn't it be nice to see the bulls show some balls for a change?

ClinkinKY's picture

Are "Pork Bellies" manipulated as bad as PMs?...

...just asking, in case I want to "diversify".

indosil's picture

Just as Trader dan

Just as Trader Dan & Zero Hedge mentioned....NFP numbers not Bad enough for fundamentally Gold & Silver popped on a less than enthusiastic number.....followed by realization of no immediate QE & coordinated attack by Cartel....I personally lost Indian Rs.10,000 in a matter of minutes!!!!!!!!!!!

From a Trading pt of view i Shorted Gold....but it rallied $15...hit my stoploss & is now below my Stoploss rate.....damn!!!

tpbeta's picture



Beastly Stack's picture

Good One

I have a ton of fun trading Live cattle & Lean HOGS.

Wild at times,they'll get you too!

rl999's picture

Guess who?

________ (1) -_______ (2) government could run out of money by the end of October, halting all state spending including salaries, pensions and unemployment benefits, because of a standoff in parliament that has blocked a bill to finance the deficit.

The deficit financing bill, which would allow the government to sell bonds needed to fund almost half of the budget, has languished in parliament as the ruling Democratic Party tussles with opposition parties that can use their control of the upper house to reject legislation.

"Without this bill, the budget will collapse," Finance Minister ______ (3) said on Friday, pleading for cooperation from the two largest opposition parties.

"It doesn't matter which party is in power. I really hope that we can get a multi-partisan agreement on the deficit bill."

If the bill is not passed, government spending would grind to a halt, the world's third-largest economy would be put in jeopardy and its standing among credit ratings agencies could suffer.

______(4) is not the only developed nation that is staring at an imminent fiscal crisis. Greece's debt-strapped government could run out of money within weeks unless it secures a 31.8 billion euro ($39.42 billion) tranche of bailout funds from the European Union.

The U.S. economy is facing $4 trillion worth of expiring tax cuts and automatic government spending reductions at the end of the year, and a standoff in Congress makes the chance of a compromise over the so-called "fiscal cliff" look dim....Answers = (1)Japan - (2)Tokoyo, (3)Jun Azumi, (4) Japan

Noda's Democrats still control a majority in the lower house of parliament, but are outnumbered by the opposition in the upper house. Many analysts say mid-term elections could be called.

"There's so much uncertainty over the political outlook that it's hard to say how big the risk is of the government running out of cash," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"The key would be the timing of any snap election and who would be leading the Democratic Party at the time."

Opposition parties have threatened to delay Japan's deficit financing bill in the past but have eventually yielded and voted in favor. This time, however, the opposition may be more emboldened because of the row over the sales tax hike.

--By removing a few identifying names you could insert many countries into those first paragraphs.

ReachWest's picture


I would assume that the NFP numbers are manipulated - like everything else. Obviously, the MOPE is designed to reinforce the feeling of normalcy and growth in the general public. On this basis, then, how bad is the real number?

And - if the actual, true number were to be reported, what would happen to the precious metals? [Probably down]. I do, so tire of these illogical manipulated markets. Everything is slanted and distorted. I can only find comfort in the realization that the "laws of nature" will at some point prevail and the ponzi will crash. 

As Turd points out - we have to remain patient.

The dictionary definition of "patient", is: able to accept or tolerate delays, problems, or suffering without becoming annoyed or anxious: be patient, your time will come.

​As I have now become annoyed, I guess I'm not very patient.

ClinkinKY's picture

So this 80,000 will be "revised" to 65,000 next month...

...while at the same time B.O.'s "favorability" rating will be holding steady at 49%?  Tick...tick...tick (attention Homeland Security, "tick...tick...tick"  does not refer to a "liberty loving terrorist" and is merely a representation of how short the the fuse is for the reelection of a total failure)

¤'s picture


Thanks for the update.

The PM markets hardly react to what they used to and what we counted on as barometers to trade on at this point. I sometimes wonder if the QE announcement will jack it up like it used to?  A $500 bln announcement or anything deemed 'low ball' at this point might be viewed negatively by the market or short lived.

Long term gold goes up and I'm referring above to this recent and short window were watching the past few months and now going forward. The underreaction and disconnection in the USD yesterday and the movement of gold proportionate to the activity was noticeable I thought also.

The jacking of the metals down despite the anemic job numbers (that will be revised down next month) was a new curveball. They're trying really hard to keep a lid on a boiling pot they know will scald some massive shorts whether it's in paper PM's or massive shorts in the miners. Anyone who doesn't think the metals are being steered or manipulated to some extent just doesn't want to accept and believe it's happening for reasons of their own.

The Barclays and JPM and Libor fixing problems show the extent to which the steering and rigging of the markets has been going on for years  so to think the PM markets aren't being pressured/steered is denial or naive.

Ignorance is bliss and less threatening then stark reality.


rl999's picture

Chart again

For ease of reference

23.68  dagney taggart  107   1480.00  dagney taggart  107
23.89  hawk 50   1498.00  the green man..  151
24.58  the green man..  151   1510.00  batting500  61
24.60  batting500  61   1533.50  nw view 13
25.90  rrjj 78   1540.00  rrjj 78
25.85  outlookingin  111   1540.20  himalaya 2
26.21  gont 42   1541.00  dr g 115.1
26.26  larry 160   1544.21  ag4me  15
26.28  tmosley  112   1545.00  tmosley  112
26.31  zman 67   1545.90  kingboo 84
26.44  dr g 53   1553.23  cucamonga 49
26.50  saratogaprepper 153   1554.40  hoping to learn 38
26.51  nw view 13   1561.50  louie  108
26.65  louie  108   1562.00  larry 160
26.70  hondo 139   1563.00  saratogaprepper 153
26.72  themtharhills 148   1563.40  keg 95
26.77  urban roman 165   1565.20  pellet 167 
26.80  hoping to learn 38   1567.27  hondo 139
26.82  ag4me  15   1568.25  ggnewmex 17
26.85  number 47  134   1572.35  stock_canines  102
26.86  ggnewmex 17   1572.76  bongo jim 29
26.90  kingboo 84   1573.00  zman 67
26.90  tobydaniel 46   1574.54  chicken little 16
26.92  keg 95   1576.00  gont 42
26.97  chicken little 16   1577.00  urban roman 165
26.98  bongo jim 29   1578.21  ink 124
26.98  galearis  118   1579.00  friendofthedevil  120
26.99  bullnurse 57   1579.23  wishram 104
26.99  cucamonga 49   1580.00  bad67  98
26.99  pbreed 36   1581.06  farpdinkle 87
27.00  pontiac 94   1582.16  interwebzmonies 154
27.01  silver slug 143   1583.12  orangealert  142
27.02  interwebzmonies 154   1585.00  daedalus mugged 19
27.04  ink 124   1586.85  shortstack 69
27.10  himalaya 2   1587.00  hammer 27
27.11  silverfocker 62   1587.38  notmessenger 77
27.12  orangealert  142   1588.20  apathetic or wh… 14
27.12  rl999 5   1588.88  bullnurse 57
27.13  printmemoney 63   1589.50  dmanson 89
27.15  daedalus mugged 19   1589.70  rl999 5
27.15  stock_canines  102   1591.00  admiral ag bar 145
27.16  hammer 27   1594.00  swift boat vet 161
27.17  farpdinkle 87   1594.50  silverbonz 75
27.22  colonel angus 127   1596.00  nick elway 64
27.30  brad_pitts_bett.. 133   1596.20  bluefin771  41
27.38  notmessenger 77   1596.82  tube 100
27.39  jonoso 164   1597.00  tobydaniel 46
27.42  apathetic or wh… 14   1597.50  outlookingin  111
27.44  shortstack 69   1598.00  schnozberries  162
27.48  admiral ag bar 145   1598.22  orange 125
27.48  swift boat vet 161   1598.40  mudsharkbytes 30
27.51  two gun tobin 55   1598.87  fr bill 9
27.52  sevin 20   1599.00  galearis  118
27.53  schnozberries  162   1599.00  pbreed 36
27.54  mudsharkbytes 30   1599.50  brad_pitts_bett.. 133
27.54  tube 100   1599.98  silverstool 25
27.59  andiej01  163   1600.00  jacobsen3  66
27.60  sixdollarsilver 155   1600.00  pontiac 94
27.61  phanophite 91   1601.00  number 47  134
27.62  pellet 167    1601.57  question 28
27.63  question 28   1602.25  phanophite 91
27.70  silverbonz 75   1603.28  ojibwemowin 70
27.76  bad67  98   1605.00  barth vader 86
27.77  the watchman 152   1605.20  dudestacker 31
27.80  jacobsen3  66   1605.23  lakedweller2  35
27.81  jan roos  105   1605.70  stardust 144
27.83  silverstool 25   1607.76  wallace hartley 140
27.83  vernon wormer 24   1608.20  be prepared 10
27.84  orange 125   1609.67  sandiaman 59
27.85  fr bill 9    1610.00  firefly  121
27.87  zoltan  119   1610.10  el gordo 6
27.88  friendofthedevil  120   1611.00  haole guy 132
27.89  be prepared 10   1611.00  thurd aye 99
27.89  lakedweller2  35   1611.11  the watchman 152
27.90  el gordo 6   1611.15  andiej01  163
27.91  firefly  121   1611.20  waxybilldupp 85
27.92  bluefin771  41   1611.23  printmemoney 63
27.92  henateme  123   1611.23  silverfocker 62
27.95  wishram 104   1611.26  clinkinky 126
27.98  candygram 115   1612.34  battlebeagle 71
28.00  so it goes 12   1612.51  silver slug 143
28.01  joebrenner  114   1613.00  colonel angus 127
28.03  tommack 7   1613.12  kedat 22
28.03  waxybilldupp 85   1614.07  bucktooth 72
28.04  gramp 82   1614.25  jaw777  92
28.05  pm stackin fool 51   1615.00  cononish1314  109
28.07  taylor747g  96   1615.00  tpbeta 11
28.07  thurd aye 99   1615.15  beentheredonethat 135
28.09  stardust 144   1618.48  libertys ghost 128
28.10  cononish1314  109   1618.67  bollocks 158
28.12  dmanson 89   1619.07  thesandbox 136
28.12  libertys ghost 128   1620.93  tommack 7
28.14  gs478  21   1621.10  landowner 159
28.15  dgstage 131   1621.11  pinning 4 the fjords 4
28.15  silver bullett 60   1621.30  josetorro 32
28.18  dudestacker 31   1621.50  silver bullett 60
28.20  beentheredonethat 135   1622.01  two gun tobin 55
28.20  murphy 1   1622.22  a_guy_in_hainesville  80
28.21  josetorro 32   1622.32  cpnscarlet  122
28.21  kedat 22   1622.55  irene 52
28.22  a_guy_in_hainesville  80   1623.32  vernon wormer 24
28.22  irene 52   1623.40  gramp 82
28.24  jaw777  92   1624.80  murphy 1
28.25  baseball13  93   1625.00  so it goes 12
28.25  meegoreng1  141   1625.30  adrock 44
28.30  tpbeta 11   1625.40  raulp  110
28.33  battle beagle 71   1625.52  dgstage 131
28.33  haole guy 132   1626.00  gs478  21
28.34  achmachat 3   1626.52  henateme  123
28.35  landowner 159   1627.00  huiaid 88
28.37  raulp  110   1627.40  sixdollarsilver 155
28.38  rambo 26   1628.37  candygram 115.2
28.40  barth vader 86   1628.88  pegasus 147
28.46  revoltinglemming 58   1629.00  maryann 150
28.47  biochar 137   1630.00  gearhead24  166
28.47  robespierre 138   1630.01  joebrenner  114
28.47  thesandbox 136   1630.15  babaganoush2307  37
28.49  grvdigga 81   1630.33  henry 23
28.49  recaptureamerica 48   1630.50  taylor747g  96
28.50  boatman 45   1631.00  baseball13  93
28.53  adrock 44   1631.00  pm stackin fool 51
28.57  bollocks 158   1631.00  recaptureamerica 48
28.58  historiography  103   1632.00  wildstylechef 34
28.62  loner  146   1632.60  robespierre 138
28.68  porky 33   1634.00  achmachat 3
28.69  justin99975   157   1634.00  jan roos  105
28.70  wildstylechef 34   1634.00  revoltinglemming 58
28.71  pinning 4 the fjords 4   1634.50  pm believer  116
28.73  bsong 8   1635.00  boatman 45
28.74  babaganoush2307  37   1637.00  jonoso 164
28.75  aomegaa 39   1638.00  historiography  103
28.76  huiaid 88   1640.35  loner  146
28.77  moguls 83   1640.79  rambo 26
28.79  clinkinky 126   1641.40  grvdigga 81
28.83  ojibwemowin 70   1641.46  porky 33
28.88  tosser 90   1642.50  rosarubea  106
28.91  bucktooth 72   1645.00  aomegaa 39
28.97  nick elway 64   1647.00  hillsie 43
28.98  flycozy 117   1647.47  biochar 137
29.00  gearhead24  166   1647.87  zoltan  119
29.03  acm 73   1648.50  sevin 20
29.06  cpnscarlet  122   1649.00  flycozy 117
29.07  rosarubea  106   1649.71  istack 68
29.12  cliff567  65   1650.00  bsong 8
29.12  desert fox 40   1655.00  desert fox 40
29.12  istack 68   1656.66  tosser 90
29.25  needadeel 79   1657.00  blackshook 47
29.33  sandiaman 59   1658.69  justin99975   157
29.33  wallace hartley 140   1660.00  stevenbhorse 129
29.36  bill wilson 156   1662.00  bill wilson 156
29.51  maryann 150   1666.66  thegreatkd  113
29.59  stevenbhorse 129   1666.87  lumpy 18
29.60  steinbacken 130   1671.00  acm 73
29.62  alabamaaviator 149   1672.13  mr grey 74
29.68  pegasus 147   1672.33  quixote2  54
29.85  deltacharlie 56   1672.50  themtharhills 148
29.87  blackshook 47   1677.00  moguls 83
29.87  lumpy 18   1678.00  deltacharlie 56
30.02  bugzy 97   1678.00  hawk 50
30.33  henry 23   1680.50  needadeel 79
30.33  thegreatkd  113   1681.00  alabamaaviator 149
30.35  hillsie 43   1684.77  goodfella 76
30.46  quixote2  54   1688.96  cliff567  65
30.57  goodfella 76   1699.00  bugzy 97
31.20  mr grey 74   1700.00  meegoreng1  141
31.75  pm believer  116   1721.00  steinbacken 130
35.60  peckerwood 101   1851  peckerwood 101
tyberious's picture

Stuck in the System of Corporation America

The governments themselves, local, county, state and Federal are all "for profit" corporations. The founding fathers are spinning. If I make myself a corporation and commit a crime I will not be held accountable... You know that every American is the property of the United States Corporation of America. back in 1913 when the fed reserve was put in place, then after that the fed gov created the social security system to pay the interest on the debt. So, we all have a social security card with a number, that number is your corporate number. A debt slave by the corporation that is ruining our country , Is it any wonder that "our" own government want to limit the internet and free speech. Instead of limiting vulgar and truly offensive material that todays musicians and other public people make they want to suppress the truth about what "our government" does behind our backs and how they steal our money and give to corporate fat cats that pay themselves MILLIONS of Dollars and have life long pensions at our expense!!! I think it will get worst before it gets better ..for us. We are going to see a repeat of France 1789 if crap like this continues... If they're is any more needed proof that American Corporations are absolutely "MAD" with power and need to be broken up, dismantled and their evil CEO's and political cronies put on trial... THIS IS IT!!!

ChiTownHustler's picture

London Trader

I'm truly amazed that Turd can keep pitching this shill know as andrew mcguire he is obviously an agent of the chinese government. What is even more amazing is how his analysis can be the direct opposed of his partner paul coghloan who is a some what good fx trader, a bit dry is his approach and over priced, but I do believe he is not shilling.

Beastly Stack's picture

Like What I see

The last hour has shown some good solid buying at 1585 and 27

Looks like a good battle,may we see a SQEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE?

Rico's picture



That "amazing" Maguire stuff was just gibberish...

¤'s picture

Belief systems


"I'm truly amazed that Turd can keep pitching this shill know as andrew mcguire he is obviously an agent of the chinese government."

Really?    An agent?  C'mon.

csquared13's picture

Andy Maguire, the

Andy Maguire, the whistleblower? Are you sure you're talking about the right guy? 

And I don't see how Turd saying that 99% of the people here at TFMR have no business trading metals is "pitching" anything. The only thing I ever recall the Turd pitching is buying some phys...

You should learn how to read..

Sisyphus's picture

Silver zoomed briefly around

Silver zoomed briefly around 3rd week of January this year, and I assumed this was Mr. Sprott buying for his fund. Does anyone know whether he buys every 6 months or so?

Just trying to cheer myself up!

waxybilldupp's picture

"Pork Bellies"

Don't know about Pork Bellies" being manipulated Clinkin, but I do know that "Bacon Futures" have a very short half-life around the Dupp household.  Fresh tomatoes are starting to show up, so BLTs are becoming a table staple.

wax off

edit: Is there a more perfect food than a BLT (washed down with a cold beer)?

El Gordo's picture

Hat Contest Countdown

Looks like I'm way out of the money on the hat contest due to the jobs report or George Bush or something, but I remain optimistic because we've all seen this game before where right at the very last minute, Turd make a phone call or two or places and order or something and kaboom, the price makes an immediate sizable adjustment right at closing, and once again, the insiders win the hats.  I know from my experience that this will happen again, but I can hope that he screws up just a little bit and the marble rolls one more notch up or down and hits my slot.  And you think the metal markets are manipulated for profit, wait until you see what they can do for something important like a Turd hat.

LOUP-GAROU's picture


Thanks for the update Turd, Same old song and dance, nothing to get excited about except to hit the local shops to find some panic selling deals! now for the check list:

1 Ac in truck working, check

2 cold beverage to battle 104 heat, check

3 stack of fiat to exchange for stack of PM s,check

4 boat sitting at the dock waiting to stash pm's at secure location,check

I'm out of here!

csquared13's picture


Whatever you believe about Andy is your opinion and I won't try to change it. I don't use Andy's service or Coghlan's, so I can't say anything about them.

But I can definitely say that since I began hanging here at TFMR, I never once felt like Turd was "pitching" any service whatsoever.

I think that you are grossly exaggerating

ChiTownHustler's picture

Then why dose he have a link to his service

Just trying to warn anyone from giving this guy any money, I can think of a lot of other service that blow Maruires away.


FREE stuff at

Just to name a few.

The Green Manalishi's picture

Romance Pants

After waiting for the Bullshit Report on the Bullshit Figures that produced a Bullshit reaction in the Markets, I'm selling my Gold and Silver and investing in these:wink

Cos when the world is turning Pants, maybe it's telling you to invest in Pants.

ClinkinKY's picture

Another chart, B.O.'s prediction of unemployment...

...with the "Stimulus Plan"... 5.6%...looks like he missed it by "a bit". And we HAVE TO PAY for this TA.
Economics, Pethokoukis

June jobs swoon: America’s labor market depression continues


This was not the employment report either the American worker or the Obama campaign wanted to see right now. The Labor Department said the U.S. economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, less than the 90,000 economists had been forecasting. And private-sector job growth was just 84,000, down sharply from 105,000 in May. Not doing fine.

The unemployment rate stayed at a lofty 8.2%.

Read more:

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