A Significant Day For Silver

Tue, Jul 3, 2012 - 12:12pm

Just a few things before I take some time away.

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.

Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.

Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.


I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: https://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.

Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 4, 2012 - 9:16am

It's a trap!

Great user name. I had to post this, Admiral.

Admiral Ackbar Cereal | Robot Chicken | Adult Swim

I was very disappointed to learn the Weather Underground sold out to the Weather Channel, which is owned by NBC/Universal, e.g., the Obama network. This fits into Rick Santorum's plan to get all free weather and radar data off the internet (Santorum owns part of Accuweather and wanted the NWS shut down). wunderground membership will probably go from $5/year to $15/month.

WRT Obamacare. That legislation had been sitting around for years waiting for the right congress and president to get it into "law" (Chicago-style tactics seemed to work). If you were the health insurers and you knew your business model was unsustainable, wouldn't you write a bill that would allow you to strip-mine the country for a few more years and cash out on your own terms? That is what Obamacare is. Written by the insurers for the insurers, so they can live a few more years longer before EVERYONE begs for single-payer.

Death panels? Ask anyone with a kid with cancer. You can't get the drugs, because they're off-patent and there are "manufacturing problems" (yea, they forgot how to make the drug after 20 years). More and more, the "free market" will be blamed for things like this, and if the government controlled the whole industry, there would be none of these "shortages". Medical treatment for anyone older than 50 will consist of "pain management" only. Maybe that's why Afghanistan is growing poppies again.

Jul 4, 2012 - 9:22am

Silver chart

One problem with the SI chart on this thread is that the slope of the downtrend is arbitrary. It can just as easily be drawn just very slightly more obtuse to pass above yesterday's high, instead of 6/6.

Either way, we're still left with lower highs. This is bearish. The silver price will begin to trend higher not on a breakout, but when demand>supply

Groaner slacker
Jul 4, 2012 - 9:32am

It looks to me that the whole stinking system is rotten to the


i would love to see real justice take place by putting all the Fradsters in jail along with the politicians who are involved too instead of the tiny slap on the wrist of a fine, just the cost of doing business

Jul 4, 2012 - 9:46am


Tuesday we had the board replaced on our 9year old kitchen aid stove:for the third time.

We have had the board replaced on our dishwasher two times and may tag refrigerator twice.

Each time the cost is about 300, and we do have a home insurance policy to take care of these things for the cost of deductible.

Thegood side of this is think about how many jobs have been created. Writing this on an ipad which does not understand all words typed and with artificial intelligence try's to correct and anticipate what you are typing so if you use an iPad make sure you proof what you type, provided you have the patience and time to move the cursor back to the point of the error.

By the way jim sinclair has comments on the spin on Chevy cruze and it's low volume of sales. Those sales are below sales of Corvette, and the vette is perpetually on endangered list.

Jul 4, 2012 - 9:55am

Privacy Laws

Acta down, but not out, as Europe votes against controversial treaty

Anti-piracy agreement rejected by European Parliament, but Acta could be revived by European Commission

Jul 4, 2012 - 9:57am

@optics guy, It's a Rat

@optics guy, It's a Rat trap.......

Boomtown Rats - Rat Trap 1978
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:00am


Newmont mine protest clash turns deadly in Peru

Three people have died and many injured when Peruvian police clashed with protestors in the town of Celendin, who are opposed to Newmont's plans to build a $5bn gold mine

LIMA (Reuters) -

Two people were killed and 21 were injured on Tuesday when Peruvian police clashed with protesters opposed to a $5 billion gold mine planned by Newmont Mining , a health official in the northern region of Cajamarca said.

Most of the victims were being treated in the city of Cajamarca and the town of Celendin where the clashes occurred - near where the U.S. company plans to build the biggest mine in Peruvian history, the official, Reynaldo Nunez Campos, said.

"There are two dead in Celendin," he said on RPP radio.

......Protesters have halted nearly all work at Newmont's Conga mine since November saying it would cause pollution, harm water supplies, and fail to bring enough local economic benefits.


This is reaction to Newmont's Conga Mine. At some point in time, the Leaders of these South American countries are going to have to stop BENDING OVER for their white masters and instead protect and take care of their own people. The passing of the ARGENTINE GLACIER LAW is just one step in the right direction.

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:01am


Mining companies must comply with Glacier Law-Argentine Supreme Court

Mining companies in Argentina must conduct inventories of glaciers and periglacial areas, Argentina's high court has ruled, while mining activities must now be regulated by the federal government.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 04 Jul 2012


Argentina's Supreme Court Tuesday reversed preliminary injunctions that blocked implementation of key provisions of the glacier protection law.

"The Supreme Court revokes the precautionary measures that suspended the application of the glacier law in the province of San Juan," the official judicial news agency said.

Barrick's high-altitude Veladero mine is located in San Juan Province, while the mining company's massive Pascua Lama Project is being developed on both sides of the Chile-Argentina border. Pascua Lama is scheduled to begin production next year.

Barrick filed injunction requests in the federal court, arguing Argentina's Glacier Law was unconstitutional because it halted economic activity in San Juan Province, prompting a 2010 decision by a federal judge in San Juan Province to suspend application of six articles of the law.


Doc sent this link to me this morning. This will be interesting for Barrick going further. The article includes a quote from the Barrick's VP of Foreign Affairs in South America stating this, "Jimenez told Reuters, "We are in the process of evaluating the text of the decision. However, it is important to point out that our activities do not take place on glaciers."

Unfortunately for Barrick, the photos from a prior post came from a 40 page report that showed in detail that BARRICK DID IN FACT HAVE GLACIERS IN ITS PROJECT AREA. We will see just how this unfolds.

beach_bum Dr G
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:05am

@ Dr G - re article on money

Enjoyed the article at first but there were a few paragraphs that made me wonder at the real intent of the author:

"What’s more, the notion that gold is somehow more “real” than paper is, well, a mirage. Gold is valuable because we’ve collectively decided that it’s valuable and that we’ll accept goods and services in exchange for it. And that’s no different, ultimately, from our collective decision that colorful rectangles of paper are valuable and that we’ll accept goods and services in exchange for them.

The reality is that it’s a good thing that we’ve moved away from the gold standard and the idea that money needs to be tied to something else. In the first place, it’s honest: As soon as we left behind the habit of trading cattle for barley (both of which had intrinsic value), money became a social convention, and paper money just makes that convention obvious. These days, instead of worrying about where we’re going to find more gold and silver, we can focus on how to wisely manage the money supply for the greater good. "

Over the course of history, the material substance of money has become less important, to the point that these days people talk easily about the possibility of a cashless society. The powerful combination of computers and telecommunications, of smartphones and social media, of cryptography and virtual economies, is what fuels such talk. And that progression makes sense because what matters most about money is not what it is, but what it does. Successful currencies, after all, are those that people use: They lubricate commerce, allow people to exchange goods and services, and thus encourage people to work and create. The German sociologist Georg Simmel described money as “pure interaction,” and that description seems apt—when money is working as it should, it is not so much a thing as it is a process.

This, perhaps, is what Kublai Khan understood seven centuries ago. It’s what we’re still trying to understand today."

El Gordo
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:05am

New Old Libetads

I just received a few used libertads that are in pretty good shape. Once again I am reminded that the libertads must be the prettiest one ounce rounds out there, and the size and shape of these guys feels just right. I prefer the design on the newer ones, but the "tails" side on these seems more elaborate. Monarch has a few more mixed dates, and I was hesitant at first, but after receiving this shipment, I'm going to get some more. I really did like them, but once again going over the Kemah bridge a big 18 wheeler blew by me going the other way and out the window they went, right into the bay. Oh well, maybe next time.

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:06am

Enjoy the display

Synchronized to music.

Go full screen

** HD ** 83rd Fireworks of Omagari ( Bushido )
Biggest firework ever! Monster 48 inch shell with trollface
El Gordo
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:10am

Bob Diamond Testimony Live

I don't like posting other people's stuff over here, but this might be of interest to some of you.


Jul 4, 2012 - 10:23am

@ Fortinbras

Sorry to hear about your friend. May the wars be over soon, and all the troops be back with their families soon.

Tell Dids' family that TFMetalsReport sends their grievances.

Isaiah 2

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:23am

Last one from me lads and

Last one from me lads and lasses. Happy Independence Day :)

THE OLD MAN'S TALE - from Robbie Ellis
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:29am


Doesn't look like you're around now but hope you don't miss this. Your belief that silver will go to a half mill, current dollars - how do you come to this value?

Piqued my interest enough to run through the following:

from https://www.wotwaste.com/waste-articles/commercial-waste/is-there-gold-i... in a mobile = 24mg of gold, 250mg of silver - agreed as an average? if so: 250 mg = 0.00803768664 troy ounces @ $30 = $0.24 @ $500000 = $4018.84 and for the sake of it also ran: 24 mg = 0.000771617918 troy ounces @ $1600 = $1.23 @ $50000 = $38.58 And you can assume more in TVs etc? Not think demand might be ​somewhat stymied (except to a lot of folks on here who'll be making the forbes billionaire list that year!)? Your new phone would cost x10 your last one. Not reckon Samsung etc would sell whatever tonnage of metals they had left back to the market, make trillions and kick back for a few years till it sorted itself out?!?
John Galt
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:31am

Markets Closed

Best wishes to my American friends and neighbors for a Happy Independence Day.

This day commemorates the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776, which initially established a FREE Republic in the United States of America.

It is somewhat ironic that this day is recognized with closed financial markets in celebration. Markets, despite what many may like to believe, have not been freely traded for years - so in that sense they have effectively been closed long before today.

It would be more apt to say that broadcasting from Wall Street Media has been suspended for today.

Regular programming to resume tomorrow.

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:35am

Diamond Live (for the time being)

They are giving him a hard time. Interrupting him when he's waffling and repetitive and putting him on the spot.

He is so angry and upset, and it is all the fault of 14 traders. They are ridiculing him. Can't quite make out his cufflinks.

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:38am


The Fourth of July always causes melancholy for me. In '04 I spent it with a great group of guys...In Fallujah. When I think about the original event, it's raison d'etre, and think about the present tense it's hard to find cause for celebration. I'm no word smith, so I borrowed this...

Submitted by MikeLawson on Wed, 07/04/2012 - 00:10 in Daily Paul Liberty Original

" The 4th of July is sad day because it should mean something but it doesn't anymore. Somehow, between 4th of Julys throughout many many years, the American people willfully gave away every last bit of what they celebrate.

All over America, licensed drivers and their legal spouses will leave their heavily taxed homes and travel in their government approved vehicles to government owned parks to watch licensed technicians launch regulated pyrotechnics into the air; as long as they make it through the security checkpoint. And call it a celebration of freedom!

I saw a sign today that said, "Land of the Free because of The Brave" and I thought, we are no longer either free or brave as a nation. We subject ourselves to laws that infringe every right God ever gave us and surrender our freedom BECAUSE of fear."

--I don't mean to induce saddness on anyone else, simply an awareness of where we are as individuals, as a nation. Keep your eyes open today and view things critically. Decide if you like what you see, or if changes need to be made. Use this time to truly connect with people, and start making the changes that you want to see in effect next year.

1 a : an abnormal state attributed to an excess of black bile and characterized by irascibility or depression b : black bile c : 2 : depression or dejection of spirits https://www.merriam-webster.com/medical/melancholy

Raison d'être is a French phrase meaning "reason for existence."

quote from www.dailypaul.com

El Gordo
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:44am

Brits don't celebrate July 4?

You would think the Brits would celebrate July 4 in recognition that they wouldn't have to put up with us anymore.

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:49am

are any Turdites pilots

and are any going to Oshkosh this year?

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:55am

El Gordo/ Independance Day (from US)

Lol! Good one.

I agree. Looks like a huge opportunity to have a party for the heck of it. I wouldn't be surprised if some type of party is held every year by some hard partying Brits.

Video unavailable
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:56am

El G

We'll celebrate when we don't have too

Jul 4, 2012 - 10:59am

That's a lot of copper

Short History of the Statue of Liberty

Happy 125th birthday, Statue of Liberty
Jul 4, 2012 - 10:59am

This might make you smile

(I love it when the fall guy implicates the "real" movers and shakers...F me?!? No, F YOU!!!)

Revenge of a fallen titan: Ousted Barclays boss makes damning claims Bank of England and Labour ministers were involved in rigging interest rates

•Bob Diamond due to give evidence to Parliament today

•Former CEO releases memo pointing finger at BofE and Whitehall leading deputy governor Paul Tucker to ask for his own MPs hearing

•Document suggests they leant on Diamond to keep Libor rates down

•Barclays shares fall 2.25 per cent as scandal hits banks

•Growing calls for banks' retail and investment arms to be split


Number 47
Jul 4, 2012 - 11:06am

Quick ulsterbank update.

Sorry about the lack of updates. Overran on a job I took on to renovate a house. Rain is holding me up, working every hour it isn't raining at the moment. (Not many hours)

Ulsterbank now saying problems will persist through this month, no reason this deadline will not be breached as the previous 6 were. Some people are seeing movement on their accounts, not me. My wife has received one of 5 credits she was due. Still no legible balance on either of our accounts.

The central bank has advised that executives should forego their bonuses for the year. Also suggested that customers should be given free banking until Jan 2013 as compensation. This is not going to cut the mustard. Banking was free before this debacle and there was only talk of introducing fees.

All in all a continuing clusterfeck. Many have moved already and many more will when things are returned to normal. I will be one but will be leaving accounts open but empty to partake of any compensation coming our way.

Jul 4, 2012 - 11:11am

I thought this was interesting

John Mauldin takes on the deflation/inflation scenario and as usual, great work.

I am frequently asked in meetings or after a speech whether I think we will have inflation or deflation. "Yes," I readily reply, trying hard not to smirk, as the questioner tries to digest the answer. And while my answer is flippant, it’s also the truth, as I do expect both outcomes. Following the obligatory chuckle from the rest of the group comes a follow-up request for a few more specifics. And they are that I expect we will first see deflation and then inflation, but the key is the timing.


Jul 4, 2012 - 11:15am

Haut de la Garenne/Jersey

There is a link on today's Max Keiser/Stacy Herbert site to an article written by Leah McGrath Goodman writing about the

protection provided for the "well-to-do" who used the Garenne orphanage for child molesting etc,etc. Of course there is the

usual evidence of children's bones and teeth remains in the ashes of the furnace etc,etc. Maybe not the way to brighten up

your holiday... but the point is: who are the military industrial complex and personnel really working for when the highest

positions of power routinely cover this stuff up? Happy 4th

tmosley koan
Jul 4, 2012 - 11:16am

@99th monkey As I mentioned,

@99th monkey

As I mentioned, it seems likely to be that silver would only go to such a value as a blow off top, ie it wouldn't stay there for long. The figure comes from a combination of the price of gold were the US to return to a gold standard (~$55,000/oz) and my own notion of the blow off in silver taking it to 10X the value of gold. The $550,000/oz figure assumes a return to a de facto gold standard concurrent with the industrial panic. The latter is probably more likely to occur first, so you might not see that actual price until you get dollar hyperinflation, and even then, it that would be nominal rather than real. No, more likely you will have to play the GSR ratio once to get from 1oz of silver to $550,000 in 2012 dollars, that is, wait for the panic, trade silver for gold, then hold the gold until you are ready to buy real assets, as a de facto gold standard sweeps the country.

Thanks for the interesting run down on silver in electronics. That and similar sources will likely be the resource that finally slakes the industrial demand. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of substitution occuring at that point. Mirrors might be made out of mylar rather than a silver sputter. Wiring might switch to silver plated copper. Lots of electronics producers will go out of business. Lots of electronics repair places will open up. Changes, changes everywhere, until the demand can be slaked and the supply increased. It will take decades to rebuild the silver stockpiles, and even then, we will never see these extreme highs in the GSR again, as silver and gold continue to be extracted in the same proportion. I think that silver will be so valuable that its use in industry will decline dramatically, replaced by new technologies and by inferior, cheaper materials (like graphene and mylar respectively).

And yes, I fully expect a lot of the people here to be multi-millionaires and billionaires int terms of 2012 dollars in the not to distant future. However, most won't know when to trade, and that is where the demarcation between new upper class and new oligarch will fall. Even those with the smallest stacks will find themselves propelled into the upper middle class, as a 100 oz stack will be worth the same or more than 100 oz of gold for a long time (like a decade after the blow off top).

Will producers shut their doors? Of course! It makes no sense for them to use such valuable materials for such piddly things as they do now, even if they already had enough metal stockpiled to make it happen. I don't think they will be able to sell many phones at a $4500 price point. Or rather, it will be like it was in the 80's, and only a few people will be able to afford such things. Remember that these kinds of prices for electronics are not without precedent. It is just that we have been spoiled to cheap prices commodity price suppression, and we are going to have to pay the piper for those years of excess.

Think about what happens in third world economies, and realize that such a price rise would cause many of those things to happen here. Children (and adults) picking through garbage dumps looking for "shinies". Previously disposable items becoming heirlooms. People finding strange but effective ways to do what they used to use electronic devices to do. Etc. etc. We can only hope that technology advances to the point that a lack of silver doesn't drag us 50 years into the past. As with most other "peak commodities" in the past, we will likely find a way to deal with this without being permanently put into poverty. That is, if the government will get out of the way. If they had any sense, they would have let it go already so the price would be around $400 or so, and people would be developing alternatives, and we could gradually switch over. It looks like that won't happen, unfortunately.

Jul 4, 2012 - 11:17am

July 4th celebration

So my wife and I had the rare opportunity to sleep in this am.


At 8:10the phone rings.

its our Village calling to tell us and all other resident about the parade.

great. Big brother can call at any time. Imagine what else technology has given them.

I wonder if there is a requirement to attend or participate in the parade?

Jul 4, 2012 - 11:26am

Hey, they found a particle…

…that has a one in a million chance of NOT being the Higgs Boson.


Surprised nobody's mentioned it so far today. It's surely brightened the 4th of July for particle physicists anyway. Higgs himself never expected to live to see the particle found.

Hey, it's what holds our gold & silver together instead of being undifferentiated particles zipping through space. Holds us together too, for that 'matter'.

Adds some extra status to the 2012 4th of July.


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
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4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

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4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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