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A Significant Day For Silver

Tue, Jul 3, 2012 - 12:12pm

Just a few things before I take some time away.

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.

Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.

Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.


I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: https://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.

Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


I Wazere · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:15am

there could be a thread dedicated to quoting bible verses.

No additional comment, just the verse.

Here's my favorite one - at least today; it seems to fit in with the sentiment of the thread.

"But those mine enemies, which would not that I should reign over them, bring hither, and slay them before me." ~Luke 19:27

It's easy to remember because 1927 has some significance to baseball buffs, although exactly what, escapes me.

Phil Ole · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:21am

Happy 4th!
All below are Word Docs, they are easy to find on the net, if you don't have Word.

You can read all the docs below in less than 1 hour. Misinformation is rampant concerning these basic laws of the US. Read them, you will be really glad you did.

Presented below are text versions from the Articles of Confederation 1777
This is like the "Original Constitution"


Phil Ole · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:21am

Happy 4th!
All below are Word Docs, they are easy to find on the net, if you don't have Word.

You can read all the docs below in less than 1 hour. Misinformation is rampant concerning these basic laws of the US. Read them, you will be really glad you did.

Presented below are text versions from the Articles of Confederation 1777
This is like the "Original Constitution"


Heath · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:28am

Damn, that pic of the safe is awe inspiring, motivational and .....well not mine. Nope, never mind, kind of depressing. One more swig to finish off the fifth of Jack D and then off to clean my pistol! What could go wrong...? Have a good fourth, stay safe, Hondo

single6 · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:29am

It was the ONLY smart thing micheal moore ever asked. Otherwise he is a dipshit. My sons are not. I dont think this man was either. This country wastes blood and treasure like its nothing at all. This site talks a lot about the treasure side of the waste. Am I worth protecting my port or border? yes. My State? yes The federal Govt? No. Not in current form. Real homeland security first, real borders and protection on them, everything else can go to hell. Send the boys (and girls) home. We need them on the borders.

Scott Bronstein · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:36am

I think that it is important to remember that we are all in this together no matter what your own philosophies. We are all members of this family. We can hang together or separately. Turd has created this family.

If I may quote John Donne from 1624 - 

"And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee"

This tragic report of death diminishes everyone. I am saddened.

Peace be with all.

Fat Willie · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:36am

Texas Stacker-

I saw your post and had to reply - I agree 100% that people are just losing it. I must live very close to you, I am north of Houston, and ride the hallowed highway 45 into downtown every day. And it is a freaking nightmare. Four people got killed near Woodlands parkway by drunk drivers last weekend going the wrong way - pure head-on collisions, and of course, one of the drivers lived to tell about it.

There are just so many people who are out for themselves, and have no respect whatsoever for anyone else.

Good to know fellow like-minded people are somewhere around here. Moved from liberal northeast to Texas. Four guns later, and one hell of a stash and security system, just happy to be in this state and prepared for the coming onslaught.

Sorry for the rant.

Fort - deepest condolences on losing your buddy. And thank you for all you have done. We are truly humbled by your sacrifice.


Fat Willie

tom · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:36am

sort of a tent made of wood and straw. pretty good in size, round shaped easily put up or taken down. but yeah yeah yeah i know you were just funnin muss be my yoot

File:Gorskii 04412u.jpg

Anonymous ¤ · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:45am

Removed comment.

Anonymous ¤ · Jul 4, 2012 - 12:56am

Removed comment.

Anonymous ¤ · Jul 4, 2012 - 1:06am

Removed comment.

Hang10-Hawaii · Jul 4, 2012 - 1:13am

My sincere condolences to you and Dids' family. Politics of war aside, there is great honor in following one's convictions/values at the risk of paying the ultimate price. President Lincoln remarked that those at Gettysburg had "offered the last great measure of devotion" to their cause. Dids did the same, and therefore has earned my gratitude and respect. Now then, the question at hand for many of us who pontificate from behind a computer keyboard is whether or not you will stand for what you believe in here at home. The time is rapidly approaching where one will be required to make a principled stand for liberty, independence, and the rule of law under the Patriot Act, NDAA, DHS, VIPR etc. Are you ready? Have you the conviction, the fortitude the integrity? Something to ponder as we reflect here in the US (during Independence Day)on the character of the founding fathers of the republic, and individuals like Dids, who made their commitment real... That is all.

Tim Carter · Jul 4, 2012 - 1:16am

First I would like to thank Turd for all he does.

Fortinbras, I want you to know that you friend is in our hearts and prayers this holiday.

rl999, thank you for your hard work. If the universe comes unraveled, dogs sleep with cats, up is down and my guesses win, the hat is yours (if it's cool with silverstool).

To everyone else,

here's to liberty, freedom and the best damn community on the net. 

maravich44 tom · Jul 4, 2012 - 1:20am

..please look. ..Love you brother!

Mudshark Bytes · Jul 4, 2012 - 2:09am

Sounds like the name of a drive in restaurant.

"Lets all head down to the 'Yurt 'n' Yoot' for some burgers & fries".

Actually, I looked up 'yurt' before I posted, but seeing as how it gave me a chance to air one of my favorite scenes from "My Cousin Vinny" I played dumb.

justin · Jul 4, 2012 - 2:32am


 Some truth on CNBC?! Totally worth 4 minutes to watch...

Some of the quotes from the broadcast of The Kudlow Report include:

“I think that right now, the question is do we all work for central bankers, is this global governance at last, is it one word, the central bankers in charge?”

Aren’t we all just living and dying for what the central banks do?

“We are absolutely slaves to the central banks.”

The host even went as far as to admit that the major problem facing the world today is the fiat currency and the continued devaluation of the dollar:

“Fiat Currency that’s continually watered down, they continue to water our currency down so the markets go up and we feel good about it.”

The guests and host went on to agree that QE3 is on the horizon.

sixdollarsilver · Jul 4, 2012 - 2:41am

You did an awesome job, very much appreciated yes

Can we have a hat contest for guessing who complained? My money's on the bold one... sorry, I mean, The Supreme Being:

28.47 robespierre 138   1630.01 joebrenner 114
28.62 loner 146   1632.60 robespierre 138

Not really meaning to stir the pot, just ribbing. But then again, whotf would name themselves after the architect of The Reign of Terror?


ivars · Jul 4, 2012 - 4:29am

GSR did what was expected yesterday (moving down) , trying to brake out of the uptrend channel. If and when it happens, silver will go up more and more consistently. Looks like it will be soon- again.

sixdollarsilver · Jul 4, 2012 - 5:12am

Good work Ivars. I won't call that channel toast until it is, but things are definitely looking up... perversely as Dan Norcini might say.

BOE stimulus is cemented, apparently.

"Looked at alongside the other PMI surveys, which showed an ongoing downturn in manufacturing and a sharp deterioration in the construction sector in June, the services PMI probably cements the case for further stimulus from the Bank of England"


Harald · Jul 4, 2012 - 6:03am

Just catching up on the comments. The dog woke me up. He wanted to go out for his usual 4:00 am stroll around the neighborhood off the leash and nobody told him it's a holiday.

I wouldn't want to turn TF Metals has turned into a consumer complaint blog but... as the repairman who came to replace the control board in my frig told me: "Whirlpool bought Maytag and Jennair." "You don't own a Maytag, you own a Whirlpool with a Maytag label on it." I'm now on my third control board in a refrigerator that's less than four years old. I had called a buddy who works in HVAC but he told me he couldn't help me. He couldn't get the parts and when his Maytag died he had to call a repairman just like everyone else. 

The repairman also went on to tell me that so many control boards are failing that the factory in Asia couldn't keep up with demand and so they have turned to a U.S. supplier to help pick up the slack. Christ, things are so bad they're buying boards made in the UNITED STATES. 

I'm not whining, my problems are miniscule compared to some people I know. Just putting it out there for someone who might be considering a refrigerator purchase.

andrew fairhurst · Jul 4, 2012 - 6:51am

I feel a certain affinity towards the SAS having previously worked in Hereford, where the UK Regiment is based. These guys are not your average soldiers. If you were to meet them in civi street, you probably wouldn't even know that they were 'Special'. On the surface they are like you and me but dig deeper and you find strength of character that can only be marvelled at. Yesterday, by coincidence, I had 2 ex SAS soldiers in to see me. It is a small world when you are an elite soldier. They had drunk a beer for Dids. That's what I suspect he would have wanted. My heartfelt condolences Fortinbras. 

The hat is yours Vernon, to do with whatever you see fit.

Erik Soderlund · Jul 4, 2012 - 7:20am

Oh, say can you see, my eyes, if you can, then my hair's too short!



scott · Jul 4, 2012 - 7:26am

i have followed jim lecamp on kudlow for years..........he has been saying this for along time.....a good guy.....


civility, common sense [and incidently,journalism] have all disappeared ..........ever since momma took the 'switch' or the 'belt' out of dad's hand.............and threatened to kick him out of the bedroom if he picked it up again.

thank god that sh*t wasn't flying at my dad's house.

Number 47 · Jul 4, 2012 - 7:55am

Truer words are rarely spoken.

Number 47 · Jul 4, 2012 - 8:03am

EU votes down the controversial ACTA anti-piracy bill.


Chris C · Jul 4, 2012 - 8:04am

tom · Jul 4, 2012 - 8:26am

yeah it wasn't until i was looking up the image that i knew you were kidding. since i had already started the reply i figured go with it. i rode the train to work for plenty of years and became pretty good at crossword puzzles. yurt was a puzzlers staple. anyway when i googled images i didn't like any of the pictures. so i picked it off wikip. The rug is probably worth more than my car!!!

PS great movie great cast, marisa is hot

Dave Number 47 · Jul 4, 2012 - 8:28am

check your inbox please, you got a PM !

thx Dave

Chris C · Jul 4, 2012 - 8:29am

...but I'll bet they can tell you who won "American Idol" or "Dancing With The Stars".


The amazing number of people who know nothing about the health-care ruling

Posted by Chris Cillizza at 03:04 PM ET, 07/03/2012

One of the most common mistakes made in political reporting is to assume that average voter is following the daily news cycle as closely as we are. He or she isn’t.

This Oct. 8, 2010, photo shows the justices of the U.S. Supreme Court at the Supreme Court. Seated from left are Associate Justices Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., Associate Justices Anthony M. Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Standing from left are Associate Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Stephen Breyer, Samuel Alito Jr. and Elena Kagan. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)The latest poll numbers from the Pew Research Center on the Supreme Court’s decision on President Obama’s health-care law are (yet another) affirmation of that fact.

Forty-five percent — yes 45 percent! — of respondents in the Pew poll either didn’t know what the court had done in regards the health care law (30 percent) or thought that the court had rejected most of the provisions of the law (15 percent).

Hammer · Jul 4, 2012 - 8:35am

Happy Birthday you Yanks. Have a great day.

Best Motivation Video Ever

but don't mess with Keith Richards ;)

Best Motivation Video Ever
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Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

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