A Significant Day For Silver

Tue, Jul 3, 2012 - 12:12pm

Just a few things before I take some time away.

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.

Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.

Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.


I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: https://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.

Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Anonymous Mudsharkbytes
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:47pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

bam El Gordo
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:49pm

@El Gordo

Here's a couple of quotes for you (that many have seen before) which should ring true:

"Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's That Simple"

-Kyle Bass

"My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, gold, a cabin in the mountains”

-David Stockman

Admiral Ag Bar
Jul 3, 2012 - 9:55pm

@de Oro

LOL. I know. The worst part is I spent like 10 minutes reading over and editing my post before submitting it. Next time I'll just keep my mouth shit. :)

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:01pm


As a former supervisor used to tell me all the time......no good deed goes unpunished.

I used to hate that, probably 'cause it seems true so often.

Guess we need more rules and regulations

or maybe folks could just lighten upsheesh

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:15pm

@ onewileyz

I feel better just knowing I am not alone. My wife and I just went for a walk and talked about our predicament. We'll get by without bankster loans from here till eternity, even if we can only buy land and live in a tent for a while! I have always wanted to build my own home.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:17pm


Way to step up!

You did a great job keeping the guesses in order and I have a ton of respect for you for doing so. You kept up with the guesses all day even when you where getting a tad frustrated.

I don't blame you one bit for being pissed. You deserve a yellow hat with a HUGE SOLID SILVER STAR on it for your efforts.

Good JOB!

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:28pm

"Fiat Paper Money"

Fiat Paper Money - The History And Evolution Of Our Currency

I am sure I saw this book referenced here, and if so Thank You!

We all know how paper fiat is doomed and this book incredibly puts in perspective how a fiat currency has NEVER survived long.

I only got to page 20 before I could replace the early independent merchants and Sung Dynasty in China with the USA and European countries.

If you want an engrossing read of fiat history I cannot recommend highly enough.

I have no financial interest at all in your purchasing this book but it is available from Amazon or better yet,

ebay for $30 including Priority Mail shipping. It is item # 261042742179. It is a buy it now with 6 left, put up by the author, Ralph T. Foster, so I am sure if the 6 sell out he will relist it.

Thanks for your indulgence,


Katie Rose
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:45pm

Dr Jerome

In my life prior to goat keeping I headed an affordable housing committee for our local community. At the time real estate was going up every week, and our gorgeous location was attracting wealthy retirees who were inflating our property values exponentially. The local folks were no longer able to afford anything.

After much research, we settled on the lovely cottages from:


They are owner built with wood from Europe, designed by an Architect, engineered by a retired Harvard Engineering Prof, simple, strong and lovely on the inside.

I met with the company owner David Howard and was very impressed with his passion for good, solid, structurally sound housing that will last for generations and is affordable for anyone willing to work to build it themselves. He has turned down appearances on programs such as Oprah, as he said he had enough business and didn't need the extra headaches.

You may want to check them out.

It is unfortunate that his one story plan is not featured on the website. It is a beauty. I believe the kit costs around $35 K.

If you have some teenage children, building such a home should be a snap.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:45pm

Happy July 4th over there.


Enjoy your day off coming there in The States and then get Back on The Chain Gang you slackers :)

The Pretenders - Back On The Chain Gang HQ Music
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:50pm

Woodstock 1969

Video unavailable
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:52pm
TexasStacker rl999
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:53pm


I have no skin in this contest. Didnt make a guess. But your comment reinforces something I see more everyday.

Doesnt it just seem the whole world, and everyone in it, are just getting meaner, stupider, more unreasonable, more evil? I commute on I45 north of Houston 2 hours a day. Every day brings road rage, unthinking, distracted, imapired people. I seem to get in a fight almost every day. People just do whatever, with no thoughts but of themselves.

You make a $0.01 change in someones guess in a friggin foam hat contest, and have to hear shit about it for 2 days!! Meanwhile, twice this week drunk drivers going the wrong way on I-45 killed people in their drunken idiocy. But, hey, lets focus on 0.01 cent decisions instead. {Rant off.}

Meanwhile two separ

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:54pm
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:58pm

Katie, check out what this

Katie, check out what this guy and his father did for 3,000 pounds (about 5,000 usd). Location is crucial regarding water access/drainage etc but what a great effort.


Jul 3, 2012 - 11:06pm

Bam and Lewis...

Bam, loved that CS Lewis speech. He is one of my favorites, but I had not read that before. Thanks!

Big Buffalo
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:06pm


@rl999: Thanks for doing the work. Sorry you had to go through the hassle. here are my guesses . . . j/k

and your post "...gfy." : I like your style.

Ignore Button: Each person has their own way of doing things. No right or wrong way. I get so much education and enjoyment out of 99% of the posters here, if I did miss something an ignore list-er (sp) wrote, then so be it. I think I'll survive.

Banking and Loans: Back post-college 1998-ish, the Buff got a job making about $32,000 a year. I had 7 credit cards all pre-approved with a total available credit of well over $98,000. WTF. I'll say it again WTF. What bank in their right mind would approve a credit card to a 23 yr old for another $15,000 credit line, when they already had $83,000 available and making $32,000 with student loans. And to boot, I was buying a second home (small). A few years later, I had two homes, and was pre-approved for a $450,000 home in Florida as a "vacation" / 3rd home. Thank the dollars gods, it fell through and I never bought the damn thing.

Now that we're out of the credit haze, looking back, it's so clear how f-ed up it all was.

Most of the world and Americans are in the debt haze right here, right now. It'll be so clear how f-ed it is to most people in a few months, years. I have no clue how this is all going to go down. Lots of opinions on this board and others. I'm on the wagon that says, "it's always been this way, until it isn't".

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:09pm

Hiring more virtual beer....

...wenches because our regular waitress seems a bit overworked so I put a call out for more 'help'.

I think I see a few yellow-hatted Turdites in the background recruiting waitress prospects.

I don't even want to know why that blue-hatted guy has a blow-up doll mounted to himself.

He's not allowed in the Speak.

Dagney Taggart
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:12pm

@Katie Rose

Ever tried a yurt? Good ones are really nice and no added property value (taxes).

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:20pm


Perfectly Stated!

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:21pm

Reeds to naturally filter the

Reeds to naturally filter the loo Check it out from the 5 min mark :) but the whole vid is great.

Video unavailable

Katie, my friend was making yurts here over 20 years ago. They are still going strong :)

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:23pm

Another rejected credit application...

Sunday I ordered a refrigerator from Sears on their July 4th sale. I finally gave in to the wife's request for a larger refrigerator. A contributive factor is that I have repaired the Jennair (Maytag) 7 times in the last 12-15 years, all of which required some disassembly and expensive parts. I will never own another Maytag. My sister and two daughters all own Kenmore (Sears) refrigerators with ice makers and no problems over the last 5+ years.

I applied for a Sears credit card as putting the refrigerator on a Sears card would reduce the price $40. I was rejected. We have credit scores of about 800. We are retired, own our home, and have income from social security, two pensions, and investment income. In the box for income (read a job) I put zero as we are retired. In the box for other income including social security, pensions, and investment income I put down $40,000 per year.

Rejected, go figure. Guess they only want people that are currently employed (for the next week at least). No skin off my nose, I put the refrigerator on another card that will give me 2% back.

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:30pm

Independence Day 2012, How

Independence Day 2012, How Ironic

OK, no trading blog post, here goes a Quiz on the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America.

Take the Quiz Here, can you get 20 for 20?

https://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/07/quiz-on-1st-amendment-and- constitution.html

There is also a Constitution quiz

Can you find where they say separation of church and state?

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:37pm

regarding the military

i suspect, taking them all together, there are some good, some bad, some sideways. probably a lot like the rest of the human race. god bless 'em. us too. one and all.

i do know my own time in the u.s. navy was no treat. there were a few fun times, but mostly it was boredom and drudgery. i couldn't wait for it to be over. given a choice of doing it again, i think i'd skip that part if i could.

sorry about your friend, fort. his troubles are over. death is our common destiny.

TomMack rl999
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:39pm


i hat tipped all your updates. i am sure that almost everyone greatly appreciated you effort. i know i did. don't let it get you down

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:46pm

El Gordo

I stack because I like the precious.

I read this forum because I like waitress audition photos!

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:48pm

What's a Yurt?

Is it anything like a Yoot?

What is a Yoot?
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:49pm

Weather Radar

Never hurts to have good source of weather info. just in case.

I just updated my toolbar and added my location from this site.

NWS / National Doppler Radar Sites/Maps


Jul 3, 2012 - 11:52pm

Condolences Fortinbras and prayers for Dids Family

Dids was one of over 100 million people to have died from War since 1914, sorrow, misery and pain multiplied 100 million times.

God bless You Dids, may You rest in peace.

May God's spirit surround Dids family members and friends and provide comfort and solace in their time of grief.

May loving memories of happier times, and future thoughts of blissful reunions, wash through Their hearts and brighten Their darkest moments.

Blessed by God, gifted through Our Saviour Jesus Christ, the Light, the Love, the Truth.


Jul 4, 2012 - 12:05am

Gold Could Hit $6000

Short video

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Hinde Capital's Ben Davies talks about the price of Gold. He says it could hit $6000 an ounce. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)


I Wazere
Jul 4, 2012 - 12:15am

Perhaps some Sunday, or Saturday ...

there could be a thread dedicated to quoting bible verses.

No additional comment, just the verse.

Here's my favorite one - at least today; it seems to fit in with the sentiment of the thread.

"But those mine enemies, which would not that I should reign over them, bring hither, and slay them before me." ~Luke 19:27

It's easy to remember because 1927 has some significance to baseball buffs, although exactly what, escapes me.


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