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A Significant Day For Silver

Tue, Jul 3, 2012 - 12:12pm

Just a few things before I take some time away.

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.

Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.

Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.


I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: https://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.

Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


NancyDrew · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:09pm

Please accept my condolences for the loss of your friend Dids.

I've sometimes been comforted by these words during time of grief:

Grieve Not . . .

Nor speak of me with tears. . .

But laugh and talk of me as though I were beside you.

I loved you so . . .

'twas heaven here with you

Ian Simpson Watcher · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:13pm

comment deleted

Jimmy James George Weist · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:16pm

JS called the bottom in the early 2000s as well.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:17pm

Great comment (Re: mental independence, not stupid chicks;). I also find it amusing that 25,000 Jewish live in Iran and they have a permanent seat in Iran's parliament. Huh?

Did anyone read the story on JSM about Mammoth mountain? When's that showing up on the Fed's balance sheet?

Dagney Taggart Jimmy James · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:18pm

Great! I was hoping to jinx the gold and silver prices with my lowball guesses in yesterday's contest.

Jimmy James George Weist · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:22pm

You may not follow charts, but here's a nice long term one for you to check out. The commentary is pretty good too...


Big Buffalo · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:23pm

I must admit, the Ignore User button is one of the best things on this site. It's very refreshing.

Warning: It's kinda like drugs or pringles. Very addicting and once used, you'll just start adding more folks.

Tony P · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:23pm

@bam - Maybe it's the Topiramate (me, not you) wink??? OK, I promise not to say another word to you here until I can take some time and re-read some of your recent posts again very carefully.

But aside from that...

Two interesting views today from Sinclair and Summers. One is saying "QE to infinity" and the other is saying "They can't print anymore." They also have two very different MOs. One is using ZH posts to sell his wares while the other uses his private site for his own type of altruism. Sinclair is very clear on where gold will fit in in the future while Summers seems ambivalent.

But let me be clear - ask me to choose "Who's right?" and I say "Santa!" hands down! I'm not even sure Summers even sees how what the Fed and the ECB have been doing lately qualifies as "stealth QE". But let me take a stab at "the middle ground" (very unusual place for me).

How about we get something that has been mentioned in the past, but not lately? Even if it is an outlier, it is still possible that the day may approach where the "print" button is hit, but not for bonds. Could it be that we get "QE to aurimity???" (Sorry....really, really bad word there). Maybe we will see the Fed say "We're buying all gold up to and including $5000/oz (or higher)". This coupled with a BIS announcement making gold a TIER 1 asset would certainly shake the world, wouldn't it? And it would both cure and create many problems. But what would happen if the Fed hit "print", but to buy GOLD instead of BONDS? Minds greater than mind have seen this as a kind of "solution".

And it would solve many American problems IF there is still 8000+ tons of gold in Fort Knox. And NO, I don't know if there is or not.



realitybiter · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:31pm

Pensiontsunami.com has been saying this for years....once a town declares BK and others observe the obvious benefits, the landslide will happen...heck, the BK lawyers will become the muni BK marketeers.

This is just the beginning of a huge tsunami. It is obvious.

The smaller towns will likely lead the way as their unions are weaker.....oh, but when it goes to the big towns, it will get ugly...I used to comment in newspapers that "we" better figure this out and unions better start compromising, otherwise they would likely get in line with the rest of creditors. Without fail, I would be ridiculed and shouted out. Crazy talk. Never happen. Which led me to the conclusion that pensioners will get destroyed because they will not discuss compromise. Destruction either through hyperinflation or BK, or a mixture...


Admiral Ag Bar · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:33pm

I'm just some nobody lurker...but I got to tell you the back and forth bickering on Main St. on weekends (and now holidays, apparently) is a real bummer. Maybe it is the lack of metals action and news during the down time, but reading folks bicker back and forth about their entrenched positions is about as fun as watching that reality TV garbage.

With that said, I think this is a great community and we do not need to attack one another. Keep in mind that we, the few, are the awake and should try to build off that.

Here's my contribution, I am appalled at the direction this country is heading. The Obamacare 'ruling' was just the icing on the cake. This guy's blogpost really sums it up for me: https://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/now-nothing-is-off-the-table/

Jimmy James Big Buffalo · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:34pm

Big Buff, you'll wind up in a room listening to yourself and a few people who think exactly as you do. Dangerous place to be. 

I don't put anyone on ignore, even though I do not agree with some people's opinions or style, simply because then I can't learn anything new. Or I might miss out on a nugget of gold that might be provided by someone who generally holds opposite views of my own.

Toby Cunningham SRSrocco · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:35pm

Wow, that was one of the best posts Ive seen in a long time. Thanks for your thoughts. Definitely something to think about and a reminder to slow down and look around and also being appreciative with what you have.

Really- · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:37pm

Maybe I'm reading the wrong articles lately but it seems like the US is letting a lot of gold get away for that to happen. IMHO, of course.

TD · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:41pm

I live in Virginia... and it's been four days since we've had power. Fortunately I've been preparing for the big "what is to come", so our generator is humming along, all the cars have plenty of gas in them so I don't have to wait in the long lines at the gas station, and the old chainsaw (with a little help from me) has cleaned up the mess.

I was standing on the porch when the storm came through. I was a bit startled when Old Glory was ripped off it's mounting on one of the posts... that's never happened before. I wondered if there was some kind of meaning, or perhaps warning, in this event. Later that day I heard the storm originated in the Chicago area... somehow that made sense.

Chris Big Buffalo · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:41pm

Big Buffalo,

I think I know which company she landed the job with based on the info you provided. I just left there after a couple years of service. Please connect with me via PM. I'd love to find out what position/region/location she is working in. Perhaps I can provide a few tips to ensure success.

Lumpy · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:44pm

"A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open."

-Frank Zappa

Big Buffalo · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:46pm

No one is on my list b/c of their view point on metals, politics, prepping, etc. The only ones on there are the trouble makers, A-holes, too cool for school, button pushers, and "i'm going to put you down so I feel better about myself" folks. I was all of the above for a very long time and found myself the guy people wanted to hang out at parties and bars but not the guy people invited to their wedding. So with that, I can see it a mile away and can't stand for it.

Chris · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:52pm

Agreed. I only have one person on ignore, and I betchya nobody else does. Reading their comments was like listening to nails screeching across a blackboard, and I just had to do it. No, it's not what you think. they've largely disappeared, and routinely show up to post a "funny" thread. I'm a pretty smart guy - at least my dog thinks so - and I just couldn't get their humor. Otherwise, I find different viewpoints stimulating and have no problem reading through some of the occasional spats. It's kind of like having a couple of relatives showing up for a holiday dinner, drinking a little too much, and squaring off over the Mets and Yankees.

Jimmy James Big Buffalo · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:52pm

No worries. This is tangentially related, but you might find it interesting in the context of this conversation:


I saw it posted somewhere, but can't for the life of me remember where. It's a graduation speech by CS Lewis from 1944 that describes the seductive quality of 'the in crowd', and the need for humans to resist that siren song. Definitely worth a read.

George Weist · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:56pm

And yep, that bottom call by JS was another important one.

Bill R daveyboy · Jul 3, 2012 - 6:59pm

In the not far distant future I believe we will all be fighting for Western civilization itself.

Those who choose not to take sides will be shunned and in all likely hood deported.

Remember, soldiers don't start wars, politicians do. But it is the sworn duty of every soldier to follow the lawful orders of his superior.

Many, and I mean a bucketful, would do well to stand up and be counted.

Jimmy James Admiral Ag Bar · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:02pm

>Here's my contribution, I am appalled at the direction this country is heading. The Obamacare 'ruling' was just the icing on the cake. This guy's blogpost really sums it up for me: https://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/now-nothing-is-off-the-table/

What I don't get is why people are suddenly all concerned about their rights now? What about when the Patriot Act came out? There were certainly many articles bemoaning the tossing aside of Constitutional rights, but the ground swell of vehement opposition wasn't nearly as strong as now (if it existed at all).

Is this because the Obamacare act impacted people's wallets, while the Patriot act, on the surface, did not? I really think most people care more for their wallet than their rights (not at all implying you, to be clear), which is sad. The Patriot Act kind of opened up Pandora's box in terms of directly repealing Constitutional rights in my view. So "the direction this country is heading" has really been happening for over a decade now. Many arguments could be made that it has been happening for many decades.

Admiral Ag Bar · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:07pm

Its a good point. The Patriot Act was significant. There was no uproar because it was under the guise of protecting Amerika after 9/11. Of course that is complete bullshit, and I fall into the camp of that 9/11 was a manufactured event to push the endless war interests of TPTB. 

Now Obamacare is particularly f*cked up because we are FORCED to buy something that should be voluntary. Not to mention that the whole healthcare/doctor/insurance/big pharma is criminal collusion. The primary issue is not because it will cost me (although I am pissed about that too). If this law stands, than you might be forced to buy other things that the nanny state deems necessary. You can see how this could spin out of control (like the examples in the link from my previous post).

Personal responsibility. That is what is truly American. You are responsible for yourself and your actions. My right to swing my fist ends where your nose begins. The state telling you MUST purchase something is the polar opposite of LIFE, LIBERTY, AND THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS.

Just like every other holiday that I don't celebrate, I'll enjoy the paid day off nonetheless. :)

Tony P Really- · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:07pm

@Really- Nope, you're reading all the right stuff. My view is a definite "outlier", a 6-sigma event to be sure. I'm just putting it out there to get some darts flying and speculating how two very different opinions may very well both be right in some fashion.

I'm still in Santa's court 95% because BB has long ago said what path he would take in the situation we are in.

Admiral Ag Bar · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:09pm

Sent you a PM :)

Chris Jimmy James · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:12pm


But isn't that the way it is with every other revolution? It takes a while for people to simmer to the boiling point. The American Revolution was simmering for many years before it happened. And then you had a few targeted cases where folks stirred the pot and the British decided to use force.

Most people I know are royally pissed about the direction of our country. The consensus isn't limited to right wing conservative republicans. Democrats are joining in. They are very angry about the way their money is being used, although they are not anti-tax. The wars we are involved in, because they are often not for a righteous cause. They're mad that our government is clearly not "of the people and for the people". We don't get a say in how our privacy is lost in small steps almost on a monthly basis. You can't travel "freely" via air from state to state without being groped, prodded and analyzed (and that's coming to a roadway system near you one day soon). We have truly moved from a society where military actions and planning were disclosed to one where everything is a secret - we don't know who our next enemy will be nor where our troops will be fighting. A healthcare mandate that is being forced on us. A repeated effort to undermine our financial sovereignty and continue our dependence on selling debt to foreign governments. A freaking president and administration who have taken such liberties with our Constitution that it makes me grind my teeth in anger.

I am one of the most patriotic people you would ever want to meet. But I am appalled that we are collectively losing the heart and sole of what America used to be. I would love for another George Washington and Continental Congress to show up on the scene, because the current government certainly doesn't care what it's doing to our Constitution.

Jimmy James Admiral Ag Bar · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:18pm

That's a good point about 9/11 which I basically ignored in the attempt to make it an argument about hurting the wallet foremost.

I'm biased in that The Patriot Act is my personal bugbear because it takes away so many rights that you can't see or touch (for instance, privacy is a big thing for me), so that you don't even know that they are gone. 10 years go by and you don't really notice the difference (outside of airports), but the rule has become the law of the land in the interim, implicitly accepted by the masses.

I don't think much of US healthcare in general, given the structure you mentioned, so this Obamacare is merely another in a long line of 'liberties' taken by the federal government at my expense (pun fully intended).

Lincoln Hahn · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:23pm

"I'm not sure what you is .... but you sure is 100% .... of whatever you is !" .... The black maid in Tammy and the Batchelor ! Monedas 1929 The fundamental lonliness goes .... when you take off your clothes ! devil

Jimmy James Chris · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:27pm

Yep, mostly agree with everything there.

I'm personally not partial to a revolution, as the dying would be on a level not seen in 100s of years. At the same time, I don't see any change on the horizon in the near future. I saw this quote from Mitt Romney on libertyblitzkrieg the other day:

"I can assure you if I’m President, the Iranians will have no question but that I will be willing to take military action if necessary to prevent them from becoming a nuclear threat to the world. I don’t believe at this stage, therefore, if I’m President that we need to have a war powers approval or special authorization for military force. The president has that capacity now.

Just more of the same.

Dagney Taggart · Jul 3, 2012 - 7:28pm

Careful. This is not the time (it never is) and you're still hated for your freedom.


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Key Economic Events week of 6/11:
6/12 Trump-Kim summit
6/12 8:30 ET CPI
6/13 8:30 ET PPI
6/13 2:00 ET June Fedlines
6/13 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/14 8:00 ET Count Draghi presser
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 10:00 ET Busi.Inv.
6/15 9:15 ET Ind. Prod

Key Economic Events week of 6/4:
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
6/5 9:45 ET PMI Svcs
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Svcs
6/6 8:30 ET Intl Trade and Productivity
6/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade

Key Economic Events week of 5/28:
5/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/31 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
6/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/1 9:45 ET PMI Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
6/1 10:00 ET Const Spend

Key Economic Events week of 5/21:
5/22 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
5/23 9:45 ET PMI Composite
5/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
5/23 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/24 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 9:20 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events week of 5/14:
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Fed
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inv.
5/16 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/16 9:15 ET Industrial Production
5/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events week of 5/7:
5/9 8:30 ET PPI
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
5/10 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 8:30 ET Import/Export Prices

Key Economic Events week of 4/30:
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/30 10:00 ET Pend Home Sales
5/1 9:45 ET PMI and ISM Mau Idx.
5/1 10:00 ET Const. Spending
5/2 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
5/3 9:45 ET PMI/ISM Svcs.
5/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events week of 4/16:
4/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales, One Fed Goon speech
4/16 10:00 ET Business Invt.
4/17 9:15 ET Industrial Prod., Four Goon speeches
4/18 Two Goon speeches
4/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed, One Goon speech
4/20 Two Goon speeches

Key Economic Events week of 4/9:
4/10 8:30 ET PPI
4/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Trade
4/11 8:30 ET CPI
4/11 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/12 8:30 ET Imp/Exp Prices
4/13 Fed Goon Speeches...Rosengren 7:30 ET, Bullard 9:00 ET, Kaplan 1:00 ET

Key Economic Events week of 4/2:
4/2 9:45 ET PMI Mfg Idx
4/2 10:00 ET ISM Mfg Idx and Construction Spending
4/4 9:45 ET PMI Svcs Idx
4/4 10:00 ET ISM Svcs Idx and Factory Orders
4/5 8:30 ET Intl Trade
4/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

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