Three Items For The Overnight

Mon, Jul 2, 2012 - 6:01pm

Thanks to all who submitted guesses for the latest hat contest. The contest is now closed. Recognizing you need a new thread for the overnight, here are three things to discuss.

First, Trader Dan doesn't have the time to post every day but, when he does, it's almost always worth your time to read. His post from Friday was fantastic. Below is a chart of his which I lifted from the post. It shows that we currently have a "record" amount of naked spec shorts in silver. Surely, this is a bullish, contrarian indicator and it follows along with the theory I've posited here that The Silver Cartel is methodically shifting the burden of being short from themselves to the specs (sheep).

Next, our pal Jeff Nielson has penned a great new article. This time he focuses on the LIEbor scandal. Please take the time to read it.

Lastly, please take 30 minutes to listen to this program from BBC radio. It is a fair and balanced discussion of the benefits and challenges of a return to "the gold standard". It features two guys with whom many Turdites have become familiar, John Butler and Detlev Schlichter. Well worth your time even though it presupposes that "The West" will have some choice as to whether or not the world returns to sound money. Also, the arrogant AGA at 23:00 almost makes me homicidal. (If an admin can figure out a way to embed this audio, please do.)

Okey-dokey, that's all for today. See you on Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 3, 2012 - 10:03am

GSR yesterday looked OK. See

GSR yesterday looked OK. See below. Today it may make an interesting move down.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:05am

Probable Cause

Probable Cause file sometimes gets lost in a Cops Robochip, I have had a similar experience, and it is always a good idea to follow up and get a copy of any written report made on the stop as cops are very good at covering their mistakes making you appear in their report to be the chump with a chip on his shoulder.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:09am


now imagine what would happen to all the spec shorts if the psychological 29 is reached before correcting back down to under 28!

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:11am

Sorry for the loss


Our sincere condolences on the the loss of your friend. After reading the article, it is easy to tell that he was a MAN among men.

We shall remember him and and his family in our prayers this evening.

Short Stack
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:11am

Condolences and Best Wishes to the Family.

Life is always too short, friends are always too few.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:14am


But, loving the nice move up in gold and silver.

Number 47
Jul 3, 2012 - 10:18am

A theory.

This Libor fixing scandal is really gaining ground especially in the UK. Investigations into manipulation are starting to sound like they may have teeth. I think the banks are finally going to get a taste of some justice over this.

I think we all know the banks collude to corrupt markets globally. Banking is endemically corrupt as a system. I believe this is obvious now.

What are the chances that the banks have to get on the straight and narrow before the backlash begins? Could this be the final nail in the coffin for the silver short position of JPM fame?

I see they are being investigated for energy manipulation. Is the cftc going to grow a pair and wade in too?

Is this the start of justice for investors? It is certainly beginning to look like it.

Fingers crossed.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:19am


Didn't handle that very well. Damn.

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:36am


a couple of truns back are to be expected-no surprise

hui mounting another run up last 5 minutes--if that's sustained gold should break above 1620-notwithstanding that we are getting close to London close. Pig in a poke what happens short term

Jul 3, 2012 - 10:39am


Sorry for the loss of your friend.

I will think of you both today and tip a beer in his memory (hope he would like that).


El Gordo
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:00am

Nigel Farage updates us on the European situation

Euro Crisis Breakthrough Breakdown - Nigel Farage

Truly outstanding.

Be Prepared
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:01am

@Fortinbras - a moment of silence for your friend...

...may we understand the cost of losing the best and most noble of our brethren...

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:06am



Bluefin771 SRSrocco
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:10am


This ties right into the current dearth of the Rule of Law in Nielson's piece. Combine politicians, lack of principles and the ability to pass laws, mix, bake and you get nationalization. Also you get no mine, no revenue, no miner and support jobs. The politician does give himself credit for protecting the people from being exploited though, turns that into votes, and keeps his paycheck coming.

Variant on the above: PAAS buys politician, builds mine. Politician keeps wanting more. Eventually goose dies from being bleed too much. Or PAAS bribing is found out and another government fines that action. Then goose dies.

What a way to run things.

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:10am

Bank of England told Barclays to manipulate Libor

This is getting really dirty. Barclays are implicating BoE in the manipulation. The dogs are turning on each other.

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:16am


I wonder if JPM can use the "White Whale" losses story to hide silver short losses.

I've been thinking about how the $2 billion dollar loss became a possible $9 billion dollar loss. I think the $9 billion loss story is a strategic leaked story so when they come in with a loss of $4.76 Billion it will be "better than expected", and JPM stock will rally.

Just like not wasting a good crises....maybe they'll use this one to exit the silver market.

Nico Romanov
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:17am

Quadruple Bottom

May 30 I called a Romanov quadruple buy signal at 1532.10 the exact low. Apparently nobody gives a chit even Turd with only 3 hat tips. Gave a follow up buy signal later at 1578.

Gold bottom

Submitted by Nico Romanov on May 30, 2012 - 11:58am. Hat Tip! 3

Posted on last thread gold bottom this morning at 1532.10 basis Aug. CMX. Romanov quadruple buy signal

ClinkinKY Fortinbras
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:19am

@ Fortinbras

Sincere condolences to Sgt. Blaine Diddams' family and you for the loss of a "man among men".

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:22am

@Nico Romanov

Not a Romanov quadruple buy signal. What fools we were.

Number 47
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:27am


I read that, it seems to be that they asked them to manipulate Libor in 2008. If I remember correctly it was Libor increasing dramatically that started all this, Northern Rock was bankrupted as they relied on low Libor rates for their short term cashflow.

Now the question is, was the Old Lady trying to get Barclays to bring it down to avert disaster or, much more seriously, did they start this whole catastrophe by manipulating it up?

I've said since I was 14 years of age that the economy seems to be run by lending too much then calling it in and seizing assets at fire sale prices, then selling them for a profit and starting again. It's why I never took a mortgage.

The 'business cycle' explained from a teenagers viewpoint. I still stand by my theory.

Did the Bank of England provide the spark that started the firestorm?

I guess you can all tell how much I trust banks etc.

Green Lantern
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:32am

See You All On August 1st

Yup Pretty Bold.

Jim Rickards@JamesGRickards

3-legged stool to prop up asset values. Summit (done, June 29), rate cuts (July 5), (Aug 1). Ramp markets into US elections

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:33am

Sucking in the longs?

I just don't trust in the longevity of rallys anymore. I guess JPM has messed with my mind. I am still expecting another shakeout of longs so they can go flat with their silver position. After that I'll be a believer.

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:35am

in response to Romanov quadruple buy signal.

Dam it cant believe I didn't go allin on that Romanov Quadropule buy off to hang myself...


Hat tip if you also didn't go allin on Romanaovs Quad buy

BTW a close around $1620 today would be very bullish

Number 47
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:36am


Oct 29th is the date zerohedge are giving. Seems the bank of england wanted it down. Not up.

Historical Libor.

September of 2008 2.927


3.3369 3.3709
October of 2008 3.8096


3.8784 3.7893
November of 2008 1.621


2.6578 2.8231
December of 2008 1.0826


2.1778 2.3845





Dagney Taggart
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:43am
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:49am

PAAS nationalization

I have been in this trade since 2002. NEM was my first purchase, since then everything PMs.

Read Jesse last night and I encourage all to do the same. You will have to scroll down a bit because it is lengthy.

The guy is a good trader, great writer, very thoughtful.

I think we all need to be really, really careful on PMs from here on out. I don't think simply buying SLW and realizing higher silver prices will guarantee success. I think there are several paper risks out there. 1) What if there is a "holiday", repricing, and paper contracts get settled much less than market value, using legal BS? (I would assume CEF, PHYS, PSLV would survive this). 2) What if we get the financial tsunami and brokerages go MF Global? (this would take down TPTB so I don't think this is likely - Bix Weir scenario) 3) What if you get the repricing and it is so massive that the government pigs can't help themselves but to determine that all mines are national treasures?

All I am saying is that I think there is a good reason why the mining indexes have underperformed. They reflect the above risks....If there is any "truth" to the above concerns the premiums in the "real" PM holding stocks (PSLV, PHYS, CEF, etc) should expand.

We shall see.

It seems to me like we are in a similar phase as November 2008. September was Lehman, Ocotober was TARP and all the other political solutions...November through the following March, PMs went up HARD while stocks languished due to the realization that there were serious issues which TARP couldn't fix.....we also elected a President, who shot himself in the foot by hiring Larry Summers on November 23, 2008 - likely the dumbest think he did - he can not blame W for that.....this sealed his fate as an econ failure guaranteed inflation and failure.....

and here we are, 4 freakin years later, and you could repeat the same words that were uttered 80 years ago towards the end of the 30's...

  1. “We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong…somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises…I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started…And an enormous debt to boot!”\ FDR's Treas Sec, Henry Morgenthau, May, 1939...
bam Hawk
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:51am


LMAO. You mean you don't risk your account on random internet message board guesses (be they educated or not)? Pansy.

Can't believe you are so blatantly mugging for HT's! :D

SilverFocker FleetFeet
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:53am

@ Vypuero & Fleetfeet re: Medicare

Vypuero.................Right now you are paying a tax, that part is not voluntary and it is what it is. When you become eligible then you have a choice whether or not to use it.

The problem with this TAX, is it is a direct subsidy to the insurance companies. Anyone who becomes eligible , medicare becomes the primary carrier regardless of the coverage you now medicare pays the first 80% and your carrier that in most cases that you pay much, much more for, gets the remaining 20%, and unless the other carrier is medicare compatible, then you must pay all out of pocket cost before you get any further benefit from the costly secondary carrier.

This shit has been going on for decades at the expense of the taxpayer.......medicare subsidizes 80% of the golden years cost when it is needed most and cost the most, so the big insurance can stuff their pockets at your expense................does this sound familiar?

Yet this is NEVER talked about or brought up when the issue of Medicare cost is the topic.

Medicare's real deficit problem is the insurance industry itself........the solvency solution is easy to accomplish by flipping those numbers, but not so easy to get the hands out of congress's pockets.

Ain't no money in the cure......the money is in the treatment!

Dagney Taggart
Jul 3, 2012 - 11:55am


Who doesn't smell a false flag? Romney off to suck zioc*ck. 4th of July. Iran war games. Blanket airline warnings. Hillary being, well......, Hillary. I swear the zionist and islamic fringe psychopaths will not be happy until they are kings of a giant graveyard.

Be safe all and stay away from the bedwetting herd.

Jul 3, 2012 - 11:58am

What a difference 200 years makes...

...treason just ain't what it used to be:)


What Would The Founders Think?


Today's Politicos vs The Words and Deeds of The Founders

Happy Independence Day!

By Martin, WWTFT Blog

Today, we enjoy the blessings of liberty because of the brave actions of America’s Founding Fathers and of those patriots who were willing to risk everything to fight in the Continental Army. Looking back, from our vantage point in the comfortable present, at the events which culminated in the birth of a new nation called The United States of America, it’s easy to think that the result was a foregone conclusion. It was not.

And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.

The concept of pledging their lives, fortunes and sacred honor were not mere words. Yet, despite the risks involved, and odds for failure being very high, the signers were willing to put their names down on parchment for all the world to read. At the time of the American Revolution, Great Britain was arguably the most powerful nation on the planet, with the most powerful navy. What these men were doing, transformed them from British subjects, to rebels, and finally into American Patriots. The last step in this evolution would only take place if the American colonies were successful in overthrowing the British yoke. Had the revolution been unsuccessful, all of these men would have forfeited their lives. In essence, in signing the Declaration, they were potentially signing their own death warrants. They were guilty of High Treason in the eyes of the British Government. And what was the penalty for High Treason?

Read more:


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