Three Items For The Overnight

Mon, Jul 2, 2012 - 6:01pm

Thanks to all who submitted guesses for the latest hat contest. The contest is now closed. Recognizing you need a new thread for the overnight, here are three things to discuss.

First, Trader Dan doesn't have the time to post every day but, when he does, it's almost always worth your time to read. His post from Friday was fantastic. Below is a chart of his which I lifted from the post. It shows that we currently have a "record" amount of naked spec shorts in silver. Surely, this is a bullish, contrarian indicator and it follows along with the theory I've posited here that The Silver Cartel is methodically shifting the burden of being short from themselves to the specs (sheep).

Next, our pal Jeff Nielson has penned a great new article. This time he focuses on the LIEbor scandal. Please take the time to read it.

Lastly, please take 30 minutes to listen to this program from BBC radio. It is a fair and balanced discussion of the benefits and challenges of a return to "the gold standard". It features two guys with whom many Turdites have become familiar, John Butler and Detlev Schlichter. Well worth your time even though it presupposes that "The West" will have some choice as to whether or not the world returns to sound money. Also, the arrogant AGA at 23:00 almost makes me homicidal. (If an admin can figure out a way to embed this audio, please do.)

Okey-dokey, that's all for today. See you on Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Big Buffalo
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:07pm

@Dyna mo hum

regarding: Thanks but what the hell do I know. I thought those coins were too high at $300 apple stock too high at $100 Ruger stock too high at $10 and Google would be another dot com go bust. Wtf is wrong with me?

What do you think about SWHC (Smith and Wesson)? When from $6.89 on Wednesday to $8.89 today. (I have that "it's too expensive, I'll wait for a pullback problem too.)

Just wondering if others had thoughts on the fair value of this stock.

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:25pm

ZH is awesome

I'm not sure how many times I may thought those words when I cruise there and see the scope of what they do daily in their unique way.

We've been talking about the UST's and the Fed. purchases etc. recently on here and 'Presto!'... another relevant ZeroHedge article w/charts comes out today to help us visualize and realize the scope of those asset purchases and CB MOPE.

Great job Tyler's!


Chart Of The Day: Fed Interventions Since 2008 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2012 11:14 -0400

The chart below, via Stone McCarthy, shows the months with Fed intervention since December 2008. That in the past 42 or so months, less than one third have been intervention-free, should close any open questions about whether the stock "market" is anything but a policy vehicle used by the Fed to perpetuate a broke(n) status quo now entirely dependent on every market up (and down) tick. We dread to think what would happen to those record low US bond yields if the market were to be left on its own without the backstop of guaranteed Fed intervention in the interest rate market... ironically something which Barclays is in boiling hot water for right about now.

And a detailed breakdown:

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:28pm

Did you not see this post?

Did you not see this post? It was 15 minutes before your guess....


Submitted by rl999 on July 2, 2012 - 4:01pm.

The chart is updated frequently, it's your responsibility to take the 3 seconds needed to make sure your guess is actually valid. No more personal reminders.

Check, then post. Repeat after me. Check, then post.


Submitted by Istack on July 2, 2012 - 4:54pm.

you would make an awesome hall monitor

Respect his authoritor!!

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:31pm

Watch the cop get put in his place

Agree with everything the citizen did but why didn't the cop ask to see his gun license or is not one required (or any id for firearm) in Oregon?

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:33pm

oh my..

What an excellent after dinner laugh. I believe I was one of the first 10 or so to post, so I'm not giving up my 27.12.

Zoltan earned a hat tip from me today because his post went something like

"My guess is xx.xx, or the nearest thing in one cent increases."

There are others that never corrected their duplicate guesses either. This is not my show, I don't make the rules in this house, I just visit it frequently. It's after 6pm and I don't want to make changes without a mod telling me to do so. I'm not trying to be an dick or a rules lawyer or anything, I just don't want to over step my bounds here. I volunteered to copy and paste, nothing more.

"I need an adult!" (mod)


I need an adult!
Moderator Holliday
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:38pm


Thanks for everything your doing. Everyone appreciates it.

Unless TF contacts you and says otherwise I think everyone will trust your judgment to get it as close to possible as you possibly could considering the barrage of guesses and slightly similar guesses.

My advice...try not to stress about it and everyone will have to trust the list and keep an open mind if they miss by a penny of whatever.

No one here will go you or anyone a hard time about a hat. Other contests and hats will follow.


"Doc" prefers to keep his virtual "Peacemaker" out of sight and holstered.

Dyna mo hum Big Buffalo
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:40pm

Big Buff @ Smith and Wesson

S and W was a good company at one time and was bought out by some ass hole bidness men with no knowledge of the handgun industry and they destroyed a company that made handguns that were world renowned for quality. The bastards sucked off all the cash and assets they could and bankrupted a highly respected national institution. This happened years ago and the stock is still in the tank. I dont think I would like to own the stock and the company has had some product quality issues. Look at the Ruger chart long term as they have beat the hell out of S and W .Given the turmoil and political unrest in this country I see no reason why S and W should not be a 20 bagger given the fact that they manufacture the final solution to all our political problems!!!! But wtf do I know!!

Katie Rose
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:47pm

A disturbing conversation

I spoke with a very informed friend who lives in Indiana today. We began by speaking about PM's (he owns a LCS) and wandered into my favorite topic, farming.

He asked me, "What crop is no longer available from the East Coast, through the Midwest, up to Chicago, West to Colorado, and down through Texas?"

I was stumped. "Corn???" I replied.

"No!" he snorted, "HAY!" "There's no hay anywhere. This year's crop has burned up. Last year's crop is sold. THERE'S NO HAY!!!"

"How do you know this?" I asked.

"From my hay guy." he replied. "He's a good Christian and the hay distributor for the region. A really good guy. He can't get hold of any hay. He is being quoted $9.00 a bale (his cost) by the few farmers who have any, $9.00! And they don't have much. That means the final product this winter will be $14-$15 a bale, if he can get any. Do you know what that means?"

"HELL Yes!" I shouted. My dairy goats go through a bale a day. I CAN'T SUSTAIN THAT! NO ONE CAN SUSTAIN THAT COST!"

He asked me about hay here, and told him our sob story. "It's too wet! The farmers haven't been able to cut and dry their grass, and if they have baled, the hay will be moldy!"

He also told me that there was no corn or soybeans. They also have burned up.

So we are talking about an unfolding calamity. Like hay, soy and corn make up the animal feed farmers rely on to overwinter that livestock.

You connect the dots.

Please make sure you are stacking food along with PM's!

Things are looking very, very serious out there for food production....

Jul 2, 2012 - 8:54pm
Moderator Washington
Jul 2, 2012 - 8:57pm

Looks like we have a "situation" on our hands

Mucho thanks and kudos and hat tips to rl999 for his tireless efforts in compiling the guesses. BUT....

I don't recall seeing any prohibition against duplicate guesses. rl999 came up with this rule. It was done with the best of intentions, without malice of any kind. And it was done by the guy who stepped up and did the work. I will let his efforts at separating the guesses by a penny or so to stand.

However, in the interests of INCLUSION, as opposed to EXCLUSION, I don't want to see anyone's guess completely tossed out.

I believe OrangeAlert's 27.12 is a valid guess. If that happens to be the winning number, I think I know TF well enough to know that he'd be happy to send out hats to both the winners.

If anyone else notices that their guess is not on the list, I'm going to require you to post said concern to this thread, in order to validate your guess. When this thread is superceded by a new TF post, the deadline will pass for requests for inclusion, and the list of guesses will be FINAL. As noted above, rl999's small penny adjustments will stand.

PLEASE NOTE: This is my PROPOSAL only. I'm not the boss around here. TF is. TF is free to approve, ignore, or modify this proposal of mine in any way he deems appropriate.

Good Luck everyone!

And I don't want to hear any more kvetching about this. It's only a hat, for cryin out loud. This is supposed to be FUN!

(I'm hoping silver ends up a heck of a lot higher than 27.12!!)

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