Three Items For The Overnight

Mon, Jul 2, 2012 - 6:01pm

Thanks to all who submitted guesses for the latest hat contest. The contest is now closed. Recognizing you need a new thread for the overnight, here are three things to discuss.

First, Trader Dan doesn't have the time to post every day but, when he does, it's almost always worth your time to read. His post from Friday was fantastic. Below is a chart of his which I lifted from the post. It shows that we currently have a "record" amount of naked spec shorts in silver. Surely, this is a bullish, contrarian indicator and it follows along with the theory I've posited here that The Silver Cartel is methodically shifting the burden of being short from themselves to the specs (sheep).

Next, our pal Jeff Nielson has penned a great new article. This time he focuses on the LIEbor scandal. Please take the time to read it.

Lastly, please take 30 minutes to listen to this program from BBC radio. It is a fair and balanced discussion of the benefits and challenges of a return to "the gold standard". It features two guys with whom many Turdites have become familiar, John Butler and Detlev Schlichter. Well worth your time even though it presupposes that "The West" will have some choice as to whether or not the world returns to sound money. Also, the arrogant AGA at 23:00 almost makes me homicidal. (If an admin can figure out a way to embed this audio, please do.)

Okey-dokey, that's all for today. See you on Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 2, 2012 - 10:41pm

OT But Worth It…

…While finding that ukulele clip above I stumbled upon this gem by the incomparable Bob Brozman, one of the best musicians alive. Whole family gathered around the computer and stared slack-jawed at the screen while Bob did his thing.

Even if you don't think slide guitar music is your cup of tea, check this out anyway. Unbelievable virtuosity. This is what having total mastery over an instrument looks and sounds like.

Bob Brozman Blues
Dyna mo hum
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:45pm

Indigo nice coin!!

Since your coin is dated 1913 note the news from the year 1913. Fed income tax started that year among other things.

SilverFocker Vypuero
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:50pm

@ Vypuero re: Medicare

"From previous thread - answer me one question. If it is such a good deal, why is it not voluntary?"

It is voluntary. part A is free and automatic..........part b is the everyday medical side and is voluntary @ less than 100 bernanke's a month. If later, one decides that they made a mistake by not taking out part B then they will pay an extra premium based on the time lapse of not taking it out when you became eligible.

Medicare is an insurance scam with insurance companies being the beneficiary's of this scam, they reap the cost basis for their coffers at the expense of the taxpayer's via Medicare.

If the government would reverse this monster of a giveaway then Medicare would become solvent almost overnight, yet the insurance companies would throw a shit fit.

clueless one
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:57pm

Silver 1hr chart looking good!

glad I cashed in some paper notes for some shiny..

Exbroker TF
Jul 2, 2012 - 11:04pm


I started stacking silver and gold in 1999. What I am seeing here is the same shit I saw in 99. All you need is patience now. Try telling that to the community. Who did win the race? The turtle? Or the bunny? Keep your chin up Turd. It makes a very large target for your detractors. Just kidding.

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:05pm

Craig Emerson's dance routine

Regarding the carbon tax clip on page 1, I frankly have no idea what caused Emerson to break out into an extremely poor rendition of "Horror Movie" by Skyhooks.

For those that are not familiar with this band, they epitomised the late 1970's populance revolt against authoritanism. Not too dissimilar to punk in the UK.

Not only did his little sing along make him look extraordinarily idiotic, it would also not be out of the ball park to hypothesise that conspiracy theorists the country over will liken his performance to:

a) a statement upon the Machivellian tendencies of the media and opposition spruiking of a deeply unpopular policy, or

b) we all watch too much television and instead should just blindly obey Our Blessed Leader's policy ideas rather like Boxer out of Orwell's Animal Farm.

Either way, I'm embarrassed to be Australian today.

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:09pm

Tin Foil Hat ~ 10 yr UST vs. 10 yr german bund

If you go to this link on the chart of the 10 yr UST and add the symbol BX:TMBMKDE-10Y you'll see a comparison of the 10 yr german bund. I've looked at it off and on for the past several months while all this ZIRP and now NIRP has gone on and especially so since the 10 yr UST zipped quickly below 150 for a short period of time.

Generally speaking, both 10 years have followed each other pretty closely over time but something started happening right after mid June of this year. I started to notice a divergence and it's actually pretty obvious where the 10 UST plummeted but the German 10 yr after that started reacting differently even after the 10 yr UST came back to the range it's stuck/managed in now.

I'm not sure what that implies right now going forward but I think it notes watching if that divergence continues. I recall posting a few months back about how the Fed could eventually directly and adversely impact Germany and the ECB if Germany played hard ball a little too much with the Euro/EU. I'm not saying that's what happened or that was the reason the 10 yr UST dipped hard but from that point on the 10 yr relationship changed. Something took place in the 10 yr bond market at that moment other then our friend Ben not saying anything QE-ish around that time.

Just prior to that some of the talk on here from myself and others was that we noticed something funny going on with the 10 year and how it traded against certain metrics. It seemed off.

I'm sure Germany agree's.

Big Buffalo
Jul 2, 2012 - 11:14pm

@Dyna mo hum

Thanks for the information regarding Smith and Wesson. I haven't done much research nor knew much of their history. I was wondering why there was such a big difference between them and Ruger. The question now is weather or not the stock increase is solely based on increased sales, or if management is getting better and the quality is getting better. Could this be a Harley Davidson story? Once a great American company, turned shit, then back to dominance.

Gold and Silver on the move tonight. Again.

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:19pm

Sorry rl999

I did not see your post of making sure to pick something someone else hasn't. I just saw Turd's post, left, came back a few hours later and made my guess. It wasn't until the new thread that I noticed the guess wasn't on there. No worries, it's just a hat. A frickin awesome ass hat, but just a hat. And I hope 27.12 is way, way off on the low side as well.

bam sprite
Jul 2, 2012 - 11:25pm


Maybe he has Peter Garrett envy?

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:27pm

Cop Put in Place...

Looks to be in Maine.

If the weapon was not concealed, I believe no permit is required.

Though I am surprised they allowed him to go.

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:31pm

Nice and mellow

A good vibe going on in here today

Video unavailable
Jul 2, 2012 - 11:37pm

Off to vacation...

Will be spending some nights in the hot tub so I'll post this for all to enjoy. Happy 4th everyone.

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:39pm

This is for anyone who....

....couldn't stand that last tune.

The Rolling Stones Gimme Shelter 1970 / full concert

Video unavailable
Video unavailable
sprite bam
Jul 2, 2012 - 11:48pm

@ bam

I doubt it.

Garrett is probably the most ineffectual politician we have. No thanks to Rudd.

He should have stuck to songwriting and milkshake machine imitating.

Jul 2, 2012 - 11:54pm



Vypuero SilverFocker
Jul 3, 2012 - 12:01am


Ok, I will go to my employer and ask them to stop taking out the tax that is taken from my paycheck every week.


I am not saying insurance companies are not part of the whole cartel now, they are, but that was not always the case and would not be in a true free market, nor would I have money stolen from me daily against my will.

Be Prepared
Jul 3, 2012 - 12:03am

Making Your Own Buried Cache for PMs or Whatever...

Bury a gun and ammo
for 15 years
(and be assured everything still works when you dig it up)
By Charles Wood

Back in the early 1990s the outlook for the nation in general and gun owners in particular seemed rather grim to many people. A few years earlier in 1986, Congress had banned civilians from owning newly manufactured machine guns. There was ever more strident talk of banning semi-automatic weapons or so called assault weapons. Many of us regarded a semi-automatic rifle as the foundation of a home defense battery. Many of us believed that more laws banning ever more types of guns were imminent. About that time I acquired a Ruger Ranch Rifle through a private sale. I decided to stash it away in a safe place just in case my worst fear was to materialize, another gun ban.

The general location of the pipe after the logging was done. It would have helped if I had had a better method of locating the pipe.

First order of business was to decide how I would prepare the gun for long-term storage and where I would store it. I decided that for maximum security I needed to bury it. This would keep it safe from all but the most determined government goons. I set about finding an appropriate location. I live in a fairly remote, wooded rural area in the northeast. One day as I was walking in the woods I noticed a hemlock tree had blown down and been uprooted by a recent windstorm. There was a small crater about eight feet across and three feet deep where the root ball had been torn out of the ground. It occurred to me that this would be a good spot for my rifle.

Since I now had the location, I began preparing the rifle for storage. I bought a piece of 6-inch diameter schedule 40 PVC pipe, end caps, and PVC solvent from a hardware store in another town where I had never done business before. Being in a rural area where everyone knows everyone I didn’t want to arouse any suspicions about what I was up to. I then disassembled the rifle and completely coated every metal part with a rust preventative oil intended for storing unused machinery in damp locations. This oil dries to form a waxy coating. I was extra careful that the bore was completely coated. I wanted to vacuum-pack the rifle as extra insurance against rust. As it turned out my employer had just taken delivery of a mainframe computer that happened to be wrapped in a large

Here is the top of the pipe uncovered with the noose and winch attached.

aluminized mylar bag for shipping. This proved to be the perfect material for my purpose. I discovered that with a warm iron I could fuse the edges of this material into a custom-fitted airtight bag for the rifle. I placed each individual component of the partially disassembled rifle in its own custom-made mylar bag with a small bag of silica gel desiccant to absorb any moisture present. Using my shop vac and an iron I managed to produce a professional-looking vacuum-packing job. The barreled action, stock, trigger assembly, hand guard, magazines, scope, and mounts all went into individual bags. Since the rifle was so heavily preserved I knew I would need something to degrease it with when I finally retrieved it so I included two small cans of 1-1-1 Trichlorethane in the package. Also, since a rifle is of little use without ammunition, several thousand rounds of .223 were included. Because every well-maintained rifle needs to be cleaned and oiled occasionally, I added a cleaning rod, patches, Hoppe’s #9 solvent, gun oil, grease, and owner’s manual. A set of reloading dies was included as well. If dire circumstances required me to retrieve my rifle I wanted to be sure that I would have everything at hand necessary to put it into service. All of the individually wrapped components were sealed together into a larger mylar bag custom-made for the purpose along with a couple more medium-sized bags of desiccant. A few bags of ammo were taped to the side of this bag and the entire thing was wrapped in duct tape. Additional ammo was packed into zip lock freezer bags. <Rest of the Article>

bam sprite
Jul 3, 2012 - 12:06am


That was just a (bad) joke regarding Emerson's singing and dancing.

Wasn't referring to the political skills (or lack thereof) of PG. I lived in Sydney for 7 years and Perth for 1, so I'm not too far out of the awareness loop, though a few years away have fuzzed the mind RE Australian politics.

Jul 3, 2012 - 12:15am

Nice spike

Go silver go. Not used to seeing late night upward spikes, but I like it!

Jul 3, 2012 - 12:18am

Somebody likes silver this evening…

…better than they're liking the Bob Brozman anyway.

Silver chart is looking good - gold too, but silver is smokin'.

Hope it keeps up. I'd rather lose the hat contest than win with my mediocre performance expecting guess.

Moderator Jane
Jul 3, 2012 - 12:37am

Site Notice - Comment Permissions

We're making some adjustments to comment permissions right now, so if you suddenly find your comments are "in the moderation queue" for no reason, then it's just temporary due to our adjustments.

Jul 3, 2012 - 12:39am

@Silverfocker & Vypuero

Silverfocker wrote:

"Medicare is an insurance scam with insurance companies being the beneficiaries of this scam, they reap the cost basis for their coffers at the expense of the taxpayer's via Medicare."

Spot on! My "AARP" Medicare Plan is insured by "United Healthcare" (they get a cut), through "Secure Horizons" (they get a cut), administered by "Pacificare" (they get a cut), and sold to me by AARP [which has been taken over by the insurance industry], so AARP gets a cut.

I'm not going to defend the government, which is history's greatest collection of overpaid slackers, but the corporations are in control, and they are the sneaky shits who are sucking us dry. The corporations also own the hospitals and labs and most of the clinics.

Two small tales from my own life: I was sent to get two x-rays. Under my plan, the insurance companies paid $27.63, while I paid $30.00: Total: $ 57.63.

And what about the poor sap who decided he couldn't afford medical insurance? Then he would not receive the "negotiated rate" and he would owe the Lab $179.00 for the same 2 x-rays. More than 3X as much!! For the same f_king 6 minute appointment.

Second tale: I take one pill a day, and have for years. Recently I asked a different pharmacy to take over my prescription. I checked with the pharmacist if it was going to cost me the same as before -- $15/month.

"Well, yes," he said, "if you want to stay under the Medicare plan. But if you want to forget the paper work and let me sell it to you direct, I can give it to you for $10 a month -- you save 33% and I save the paperwork and actually make a little more than the insurance would pay me." So now I have $5/month more for ag and get a little satisfaction for taking those bucks away from the blood-suckers.

Jul 3, 2012 - 12:48am
Code The Plumber
Jul 3, 2012 - 12:49am

Honeypot, my ass

Turd, admins, all...

Cutting off the entire, from what I can tell, DoD from TFMetals with this stupid F'ing IP blocking software your site is using is some frustrating bullshit. I can only read from home now, in the evening, cutting me off from timely info during trading hours. Obviously our IP's are dynamic and the blacklisting unjustified. Even if someone somewhere in DoD once upon a time launched an attack that was detected by this filtering software, it sure as shit isn't whomever is holding that IP on a given day.

For any DoD folks who don't have a home network outside of DoD firewalls, TFM is no more.

El Gordo
Jul 3, 2012 - 1:07am

Anal-ysis: Fun with numbers

I did some quick and rough analysis on the hat contests, and here's what I found:

When the contest was announced about 9AM this morning, the Kitco chart shows a spot price of about 27.43 for silver and 1596.80 for gold. The lowest price estimate was 23.68 for silver, 1480.00 for gold; the highest 35.60 for silver, 1851.00 for gold. The spread between high and low was 11.92 for silver and 371 for gold. The number of players is 154 for silver and 159 for gold - the midpoint price based on the number of players is27.89 silver and 1611.26 for gold. Based on price, the mid point is 29.64 for silver and 1665.5 for gold. For silver, 108 of the 154 players said the price would be higher that spot at the time the contest was announced, 46 said lower; for gold 114 higher and 45 lower.

Obviously as the numbers are tweaked and Blythe sends her instructions to Turd as to how to once again rig the contest to make certain the "desirables" come out on top there is a margin of error can change. I'm certain that there is something to be gained by having this information but I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is. You might want to process it through your insane-o-meter for more detailed analysis.

cliff 567 rl999
Jul 3, 2012 - 1:28am

What happened to the OLD rules?

In the olden days the first one that crossed the finish line won. Period. End story.

Now we are negating the time eliminate and opening the race to folk that hold back and enter their guess to the equal status to those that made a snap decision?

The snap decision may have been a Karma or Zen thing. The digits of the number may have represented a set of fixed, personally important dates. Regardless.

All contestants should receive one chance and one choice.

If more than one pick identical times, dates or numbers, there IS a problem.

However, the problem does Not justify changing a contestant's guess/submission at the flip of a coin by an arbitrator 'judge'.

I guessed silver at 29.12.

Someone 'flipped a coin and assigned me to 29.13?'

By what right can you deny me my choice?

I would much more cherish the memory of having guessed correctly and lost the chance for coming second to the finish than been reassigned another number that turned out to be the winner. I for one would never respect the hat that came from such an obviously rig-able game.

If desert fox entered his guess before I entered mine at 29.12, he gets the hat.

If I was first, desert fox is a bright feller that is sucking hind tit.



Bongo Jim
Jul 3, 2012 - 1:37am

Hey Cliff

Life is rigged, get used to it.

Moderator Jane
Jul 3, 2012 - 1:46am

@Code the Plumber

There's a CAPTCHA you can fill in on Cloudflare to get 24 hour access to the site. Or fill in the form to be whitelisted.

cliff 567 Bongo Jim
Jul 3, 2012 - 2:00am

If it don't feel good, you are doing it wrong.

I admit that I'm in a granite cage, but if I never stop chipping at the mortar I'll never be truly caged.


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