Three Items For The Overnight

Mon, Jul 2, 2012 - 6:01pm

Thanks to all who submitted guesses for the latest hat contest. The contest is now closed. Recognizing you need a new thread for the overnight, here are three things to discuss.

First, Trader Dan doesn't have the time to post every day but, when he does, it's almost always worth your time to read. His post from Friday was fantastic. Below is a chart of his which I lifted from the post. It shows that we currently have a "record" amount of naked spec shorts in silver. Surely, this is a bullish, contrarian indicator and it follows along with the theory I've posited here that The Silver Cartel is methodically shifting the burden of being short from themselves to the specs (sheep).

Next, our pal Jeff Nielson has penned a great new article. This time he focuses on the LIEbor scandal. Please take the time to read it.

Lastly, please take 30 minutes to listen to this program from BBC radio. It is a fair and balanced discussion of the benefits and challenges of a return to "the gold standard". It features two guys with whom many Turdites have become familiar, John Butler and Detlev Schlichter. Well worth your time even though it presupposes that "The West" will have some choice as to whether or not the world returns to sound money. Also, the arrogant AGA at 23:00 almost makes me homicidal. (If an admin can figure out a way to embed this audio, please do.)

Okey-dokey, that's all for today. See you on Tuesday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 2, 2012 - 6:06pm

Just Missed It...

AU = $1625.40

AG = $28.12

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:14pm


Strike 3 I'm out.

Odd - I just went to the previous thread to give a heads-up on the new thread, and I cannot post any comments there - the box to type your message is gone, as are all the posting buttons as well.

If I was being moderated for some odd reason I wouldn't be able to post here - so what gives?

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:14pm

In the for what it's worth column....

Missed my guess deadline by one minute. I just arrived at the beach, and have received my reward! Just for fun and no hat. au=1658.21 ag=28.71

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:20pm



I previously forecasted that we would have between 2.5-2.8 million oz of silver eagle sales in JUNE. We hit the top end of that figure. The US MINT updated June from the 2,538,000 figure last week to 2,858,000 as of JUNE 30th/ Sat. So, since Sunday, we have added another 269,500 silver eagle sales.

Here is the difference from last year.


2011 JAN-JUN = 22,303,500

2012 JAN-JUN = 17,392,000 (-20%)

In the first quarter silver eagle sales were down 28%, but in the second quarter sales have picked up and we are only down 20%. This is not as bad as gold eagle sales.


2011 JAN-JUN = 576,000

2012 JAN-JUN = 343,500 (-40%)

Here we can see that Gold Eagle Sales are down twice in percentage terms compared to silver.

Again, the BIG PLAYERS are buying a great deal of gold at this time. Retail investment demand is only a fraction of the over all buying. I will get into more detail in my US GOLD IMPORT-EXPORT article....

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:21pm

and meanwhile...

the dumbing down of America continues: here is actual language from a position statement in the 2012 Texas Republican Party Platform:

"Knowledge-Based Education – We oppose the teaching of Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) (values clarification), critical thinking skills and similar programs that are simply a relabeling of Outcome-Based Education (OBE) (mastery learning) which focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority."

Must. Feed. System. More. Obedient. Debt-slaves.

Be Prepared
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:22pm

I happened to find myself at the road of many crosses...

You would think that I would know this by now.... that nothing will be what it seems, but I am still amazed how I can turn a corner to find the unexpected both in good and bad ways.

I happen to find myself at crossroads which veer in many unknown directions... the how and when seem to go on endlessly much to my travail. I ponder much this evening, because when nothing seems to be happening... the pause does give a moment to reflect on how much has happened and on what will unfold.

More than Half this Year has been written and the world hasn't fallen apart, yet.... which I must say is a good thing.... but the storm clouds are looming and I see the horseman of the Turning preparing their stampede. I once saw a document, written on vellum, that seemed to contain ideals rarely, if ever, ensconced and forged as the basis for a modern government where the destiny of the one... the many could be written by the labours of their hands... their hearts... their minds. It seems faded now... and trodden under the heels of the wretched and vile who have sought to see the iron of its ink bleached out of the minds entrusted to hold its vigilance.

There are no answers for me in the stars I see and I am left to know that I have been unhinged from the frame which I was placed within.... I stand and the road of many crosses is a question which has no answer...

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:22pm

This just showed up.... the door. cool

It's a 1913 in about the same shape except my dates a bit fuller. It's about the size of a quarter and has a nice heft to it relative to it's size. That's my smallest and first piece of Au around 1/2 oz. 

It won't be the last enlightened


Thanks for the update!

eBay Image Hosting at

eBay Image Hosting at

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:27pm

@ SRS Yes. Still Asleep

Thank you for your post. Great info.

Agree the retail 'Johnny on the street' has yet to wake up. It will take another catastrophe to accomplish this.

"The US economic system is about to blow up.

The banking sector has been kept technically alive on the life support of accounting fraud since 2008, but that artful racket is coming to an end because sooner or later the abstraction called "money" must make truthful representations of itself in relation to reality, or else people cease to accept its claim of value."

Dyna mo hum ¤
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:28pm


Thats a fine looking specimen. What company did you acquire that from if you don't mind me asking?????

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:28pm


I simply closed the comments on the thread at 5:00, when the contest closed. 

Moderator Washington
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:31pm

And I just approved three

And I just approved three guesses that were made before the deadline, but were not immediately published. So there are at least three guesses not on any list.

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:32pm


Nicely done! yes

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:39pm

Nice job rl999

You should get a hat

for doing all that!

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:40pm
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:43pm


I enjoy the site, for it to be enjoyed by all as a community little things like this need to be done. We self moderate fairly well, and I view the collating as well worth the effort.

I come here because there are contrary opinions and feel that they are necessary to achieve and sustain a balanced mind. I learn something everyday, both from TF and other members.

Regardless of what happens we all have a significant advantage compared to the vast majority that don't have an awareness of alternative views. be it monetary or world. 

Admiral Ag Bar
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:46pm

@ OutlookingIn

That was a great link from Kunstler! Our healthcare system is a giant racket...and we all have to join in. We are screwed on so many different levels.

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:49pm

Dyna mo hum

I bought it from Apmex about 1 week ago. It's a cleaned specimen and I got it for under $950.

And it's about to have it's 100th B-day next year cool

Even though it won't win any beauty contests, it still has .48375 ozs. of Au and lots of history and rarity behind it. When possible, I'm going to try and buy more and some other Liberties. But the rarity of this coin is cool to realize ....and hold.

There are visible stars going all the way around the edge. What an awesome coin!

Here are some 1913 facts I just found. 

Augustus Saint Gaudens
16.70 grams
Raised Stars
Metal Content:
90% Gold, 10% Copper

The 1913 is very similar in overall rarity to the 1910, 1912 and 1915 and it is relatively easy to find in MS-63 or lower grades. Even in MS-64, the issue is available with some regularity. Gems, although certainly rare, show up sufficiently often that obtaining one is not the extraordinarily difficult task that many issues of this series present. A small number of exceptional quality (better than MS-65) examples of this issue are known to exist, including at least two virtually perfect ones.

The 1913 is typical very sharply struck, and the lustre ranks right up there with the very best in the series. Color varies somewhat but light to medium yellow and greenish gold are the colors most often seen. Some examples also have light rose, orange or coppery highlights. The surfaces have virtually none of the granularity of the 1910 to 1912 Philadelphia Mint issues and can be either fully frosty or somewhat satiny. Top grade examples of the 1913 are among the most attractive of the series.


Frank Zappa warning blush

Frank Zappa 1974 11 17 Dinah Moe Humm
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:52pm


Nicely said and thanks again! yes

bam Biochar
Jul 2, 2012 - 6:53pm


...and the Republicrats march on. If they don't make you stupid one way, it'll be another. 

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:57pm

I just had a rather hideous

I just had a rather hideous idea. 

What if the "Spec shorts" are actually direct Fed shorting, in much the same way that they have been suspected of buying treasuries under the table in the past, with their purchases being lumped in with "household purchasing"? If I were the Fed, and JPM was starting to get cold feet, or was experiencing major insolvency issues, I would want to move the suppression I had been funding out of their hands before it blew up. In the past, I had thought it would just be dumped on another bank, but at this point, I'm not sure that there are any good options. Maybe GS. But they might be afraid that they will have problems as well.

This may be a little "out there", and it is certainly unproven, but it seems well within their MO. The implications of this are pretty staggering, in that it would mean that the Fed no longer has any faith in ANY of the banks, which probably means a collapse is near.

It could be small fry, but it seems to me that the market is so thin, and everyone is so freaked out, that there just CAN'T BE THAT MANY PEOPLE WILLING TO SHORT. Who are these people?

I would appreciate anyone else's thoughts on the subject.

Jul 2, 2012 - 6:58pm

@ Admiral Ag Bar

Yes. "screwed on so many different levels."

ClinkinKY Biochar
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:00pm

and meanwhile...

the dumbing down of America continues: here is actual language from a position statement in the 2012 Texas Republican Party Platform:

"Knowledge-Based Education – We oppose the teaching of Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) (values clarification), critical thinking skills and similar programs that are simply a relabeling of Outcome-Based Education (OBE) (mastery learning) which focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority."

Must. Feed. System. More. Obedient. Debt-slaves.


Good to see they've adopted a Democratic "platform"wink

Admiral Ag Bar dropout
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:01pm


I hear ya. Voting isn't wortha shit either. The game is rigged and we are the suckers (debt slaves)

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:01pm


From previous thread - answer me one question. If it is such a good deal, why is it not voluntary? 

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:03pm

What's in a Name...

So, bam and biochar - you're in favor of various government education programs with fancy names? Send your kids to the re-education school run by Uncky Sham and all is well???

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:08pm

Yeah most of the time

the name of a program - for instance something that "teaches critical thinking" does the exact opposite. The "economic recovery act"and the "patient protection and cost reduction act" come to mind as doing the exact opposite.

I don't know the details of these so I may be wrong, but it would not shock me that they do not do anything like what they say!

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:10pm

One More

The man we all love to hate was recently interviewed for an in depth discussion on the mechanics of the gold market. Although we despise Jeff Christian, it is a good interview. There are tid bits of where the holes (potential fraud) are but you must listen closely. It seems the only reason for gold to exist is hypothecation of currency via futures (regulated, unregulated, otc, dark pool) in order to provide market liquidity. Trouble is, in trading (todays casino's) there is always a winner and a loser and the losers (invariably taxpayers) pay out on those leveraged and exponential losses. STK!

Jul 2, 2012 - 7:12pm

Final answer

You may notice your guess tweaked by a few cents. If it was a duplicate I flipped a coin (new cougars and moose I received today) heads you went down, tails, up.

Per mod Washington a few "provisional ballots" were added.

We had 153 silver, 158 gold guesses.

23.68 dagney taggart   1480 dagney taggart
23.89 hawk   1498.00 the green manalishi
24.58 the green manalishi   1510 batting500
24.60 batting500   1533.50 nw view
25.90 rrjj   1540 rrjj
26.21 gont   1540.20 himalaya
26.26 larry   1541 dr g
26.28 tmosley   1544.21 ag4me
26.31 zman   1545 tmosley
26.44 dr g   1553.23 cucamonga
26.50 saratogaprepper   1554.40 hoping to learn
26.51 nw view   1561.50 louie
26.65 louie   1562.00 larry
26.70 hondo   1563.00 saratgoprepper
26.72 themtharhills   1563.40 keg
26.77 urban roman   1565.20 pellet
26.80 hoping to learn   1567.27 hondo
26.82 ag4me   1568.25 ggnewmex
26.85 number 47   1572.35 stock_canines
26.86 ggnewmex   1572.76 bongo jim
26.90 tobydaniel   1573 zman
26.91 alabamaaviator   1574.54 chicken little
26.92 keg   1576 gont
26.96 cucamonga   1577.00 urban roman
26.97 chicken little   1578.21 ink
26.98 bongo jim   1579 friendofthedevil
26.99 pbreed   1579.23 wishram
27.00 pontiac   1580 bad67
27.01 bullnurse   1581.06 farpdinkle
27.02 interwebzmonies   1582.16 interwebzmonies
27.03 silver slug   1583.12 orangealert
27.04 ink   1585 daedalus mugged
27.10 himalaya   1586.85 short stack
27.11 silverfocker   1587 hammer
27.12 rl999   1587.38 not messenger
27.13 printmemoney   1588.20 apathetic or wh…
27.15 daedalus mugged   1588.88 bullnurse
27.16 hammer   1589.50 dmanson
27.17 farpdinkle   1589.70 rl999
27.22 colonel angus   1591.00 admiral ag bar
27.30 brad_pitts_bett…   1594.00 swift boat vet
27.37 stock_canines   1594.50 silverbonz
27.38 not messenger   1596 nick elway
27.39 jonoso   1596.20 bluefin771
27.42 apathetic or wh…   1596.82 tube
27.44 short stack   1597 tobydaniel
27.48 admiral ag bar   1597.50 outlookingin
27.49 swift boat vet   1598.00 shnozberries
27.51 two gun tobin   1598.22 orange
27.52 sevin   1598.40 mudsharkbytes
27.53 shnozberries   1598.87 fr. Bill
27.54 mudsharkbytes   1599 pbreed
27.56 Tube   1599.50 brad_pitts_bett…
27.59 andiej01   1599.98 silverstool
27.60 sixdollarsilver   1600 jacobsen3
27.61 phanophite   1601.00 number 47
27.62 pellet   1601.57 question
27.63 question   1602.25 phanophite
27.70 sliverbonz   1603.28 ojibwemowin
27.76 bad67   1605.00 barth vader
27.77 the watchman   1605.20 dudestacker
27.80 jacobsen3   1605.23 lakedweller2
27.81 jan roos   1605.70 stardust
27.82 silverstool   1607.76 wallace hartley
27.83 vernon wormer   1608.20 be prepared
27.84 orange   1609.97 sandiaman
27.85 fr. Bill   1610 firefly
27.86 friend of the devil   1610.10 el gordo
27.87 zoltan   1611.00 thurd aye
27.88 be prepared   1611.11 the watchman
27.89 lakedweller2   1611.15 andiej01
27.90 el gordo   1611.20 waxybilldupp
27.91 firefly   1611.23 silverfocker
27.92 bluefin771   1611.26clinkinky
27.93 waxybilldupp   1612.34 battle beagle
27.95 wishram   1612.51 silver slug
27.98 candygram   1613.00 colonel angus
28.00 so it comes   1613.12 kedat
28.01 joebrenner   1614.07 bucktooth
28.03 tommack   1614.25 jaw777
28.04 gramp   1615 tpbeta
28.05 pm stackin fool   1615.15 beentheredonethat
28.07 taylor747g   1618.48 libertys ghost
28.09 stardust   1618.67 bollocks
28.11 libertys ghost   1619.07 thesandbox
28.12 dmanson   1620.93 tommack
28.14 gs478   1621.10 landowner
28.15 silver bullett   1621.11 pinning 4 the fjords
28.16 dgstage   1621.50 silver bullett
28.17 thurd aye   1622.01 two gun tobin
28.18 dudestacker   1622.22 a_guy_in_hainesville
28.20 murphy   1622.32 cpnscarlet
28.21 kedat   1622.55 irene
28.22 irene   1623.32 vernon wormer
28.24 jaw777   1623.40 gramp
28.25 baseball 13   1624.80 murphy
28.30 tpbeta   1625 so it comes
28.33 battle beagle   1625.30 adrock
28.34 achmachat   1625.40 raulp
28.35 landowner   1625.52 dgstage
28.37 raulp   1626.00 gs478
28.40 barth vader   1626.52 henateme
28.41 pinning 4 the fjords   1627.00 huiaid
28.45 robespierre   1627.40 sixdollarsilver
28.46 revolting lemming   1628.37 candygram
28.47 thesandbox   1628.88 pegasus
28.48 biochar   1629.00 maryann
28.49 recaptureamerica   1629.99 gearhead_24
28.50 boatman   1630.00 pm stackin fool
28.53 adrock   1630.01 joebrenner
28.55 outlookingin   1630.15 babaganoush2307
28.57 bollocks   1630.33 henry
28.58 historiography   1630.50 taylor747g
28.62 loner   1631 recaptureamerica
28.68 porky   1632 wildstylechef
28.69 justin99975   1632.60 robespierre
28.70 wildstylechef   1634 achmachat
28.73 bsong   1634.01 revoltinglemming
28.74 babaganoush2307   1634.50 pm believer
28.75 aomegaa   1635 boatman
28.76 huiaid   1637 jonoso
28.77 moguls   1638 historiography
28.79 clinkinky   1640.35 loner
28.83 ojibwemowin   1641.40 grvdigga
28.88 tosser   1641.46 porky
28.91 bucktooth   1642.50 rosarubea
28.97 nick elway   1645.00 aomegga
28.98 flycozy   1647.00 hillsie
29.00 gearhead_24   1647.47 biochar
29.03 acm   1647.87 zoltan
29.06 cpnscarlet   1648.5 sevin
29.07 rosarubea   1649.00 flycozy
29.12 desert fox   1649.71 istack
29.13 cliff 567   1650 bsong
29.14 istack   1655 desert fox
29.25 needadeel   1656.66 tosser
29.33 sandiaman   1657 blackshook
29.36 billwilson   1658.69 justin99975
29.51 maryann   1660.00 stevenbhorse
29.59 stevenbhorse   1662.00 billwilson
29.60 steinbacken   1666.66 thegreatkd
29.68 pegasus   1666.78 lumpy
29.85 deltacharlie   1671 acm
29.87 lumpy   1672.13 mr grey
30.02 bugzy   1672.33 quixote2
30.33 henry   1672.50 themtharhills
30.35 hillsie   1677 moguls
30.46 quixote2   1678 hawk
30.54 blackshook   1678.01 deltacharlie
30.57 goodfella   1680.50 needadeel
31.20 mr grey   1681.00 alabamaaviator
31.75 pm believer   1684.77 goodfella
35.60 peckerwood   1688.96 cliff567
    1689.50 prinetmemoney
    1699 bugzy
    1700.00 meegoreng1
    1721.00 steinbacken
    1851 peckerwood
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:13pm
Jul 2, 2012 - 7:15pm

My favorite oxymoron act…

…the "Patriot Act".

Kind of like Reagan calling guided missiles "Peacekeepers".

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 12/31

1/2 9:45 am ET Markit Manu PMI
1/3 10:00 am ET ISM Manu Index
1/4 8:30 am ET BLSBS
1/4 9:45 am ET Markit Serv PMI