An Unusual Week Ahead
It's going to be a weird one. A big up day last Friday. CoT Tuesday is ahead of a market-closed Wednesday and then Friday is the next BLSBS report. All in all, it's very hard to predict what will happen. You know what that means don't you? Another hat contest!
First of all, today will likely be flat-to-down. As Ranting Andy likes to point out, The Cartel rarely/never allows a second UP day after a big move. So far, that's about how things are playing out. Gold is down $5 and silver is unch, both on light volume.
Tomorrow is CoT Tuesday and the last trading day until Thursday (American Independence Day is Wednesday). You'll recall that Friday, June 1 was a $58 UP day. Monday, the 4th was down $8 and CoT Tuesday, the 5th was up $3. Does this gives us any clues following last Friday's $54 UP day? Yes and no. Yes for today, tomorrow not so much because of the Wednesday holiday.
I would expect a bit of an UPward bias on Thursday ahead of the BLSBS. Why? To me, there's a pretty strong likelihood that the BLSBS on Friday is going to be a stinker. Last month was +69,000 and this was only because of a 200,000+ birth/death adjustment. Given the economic data since and the uncertainty surrounding the Obamacare SCOTUS decision, the odds to seem to favor a very light number. Something less than 50,000? I can almost hear Hampton Pearson now: "UP 27,000. Non-farm payrolls for June were up just 27,000". We'll see.
So, if this plays out, there's a chance the charts could turn quite positive by this time next week. Maybe gold will be near the top of its 1530-1630 range? With a real dud of a BLSBS, maybe it will be out and UP through the range, something like 1650? And maybe silver can get going, too. The chart would seem to indicate that it will be trapped all week between maybe 26.50 and 28. This wouldn't surprise me at all. Then, with a lousy BLSBS, silver blows through the downtrend line off of the 2/29 highs and begins a run at 30 and points north.
So, let the contest begin! Once again, we'll need some help compiling the guesses so anyone out there with a few spare minutes could really help the cause. The contest will close at 6:00 EDT (NY time) tonight. For determining the winner this time, let's use the kitco charts on the homepage. When the metals stop trading on Friday, the final spot price will be shown on those charts. We'll use those prices to determine the winners. One hat for gold and one hat for silver.
Good luck everyone and have a great day!