The Army Advances

Sat, Jun 30, 2012 - 11:19am

Turd's Army, led by Brigadier General Andrew Maguire, made significant advances against enemy positions in June.

Keep in mind how this works. As a member of Andy's service, "DayTrades", you get to follow along to see where and when Andy puts on positions throughout the trading day. Two important items:

  1. The bulk of this trading takes place during London market hours.
  2. The service has just recently made a significant upgrade to their server speeds. This will allow members to see Andy's moves almost instantaneously.

For example, here's a snippet of yesterday's feed:

08:53:14 andy: stops seen on the last test of the high, I am buying one lot of Gold here
08:53:28 andy: 1593.60
08:53:46 andy: target 1598
08:55:28 andy: taking profit here at market
08:55:33 andy: 1597
08:55:40 andy: closing stop
08:56:39 andy: may see some fix painting shortly so a pull back to 1589 would be a likely entry
09:02:47 andy: 1602 saw strong defence/ resistance but the stops above would expose stops to 1618/20,possibly see a pull back first , in the next hour..
10:11:58 andy: I am selling one lot of Gold here 1598.90 stop 1599.30
10:12:37 andy: target 1595.20
10:13:31 andy: this is a speculative A/R pivot so tight stop
10:20:02 andy: stopped

Below is a chart of the cumulative performance of "The Army" since inception back in April.

Month Perf Cum. Perf.
Apr 12 $2,810 $2,810
May 12 $5,590 $8,400
Jun 12 $7,570 $16,070

And here is the day-to-day breakdown for June:

Cumulative Performance for June 2012: $7,570
* P/L based upon each lot consisting of a ONE contract of each vehicle.
Date Gold Silver P/L *
June 1st $2,830 - $2,830
June 2nd - - -
June 3rd - - -
June 4th - - -
June 5th - - -
June 6th $170 - $170
June 7th $200 - $200
June 8th $280 - $280
June 9th - - -
June 10th - - -
June 11th $420 - $420
June 12th $380 - $380
June 13th $190 - $190
June 14th $490 - $490
June 15th $200 - $200
June 16th - - -
June 17th - - -
June 18th -$10 - -$10
June 19th $320 - $320
June 20th $490 - $490
June 21st $630 - $630
June 22nd -$10 - -$10
June 23rd - - -
June 24th - - -
June 25th -$20 - -$20
June 26th $250 - $250
June 27th $200 - $200
June 28th - - -
June 29th $360 - -
June 30th - - -
TOTAL $7,570

What this shows is that a trader who followed Andy's trades exactly (Which, admittedly, can be a little challenging sometimes. You have to be committed and paying attention.) is up $16,070 over the past 2.5 months. And this is only trading one contract, every single time. And this is also in an extremely challenging market environment. After fees and less whatever commission you pay your broker, the member is probably up at least 13Gs. Not too shabby. That's eight, shiny and sparkly gold eagles in your safe to help you survive the coming onslaught.

If you're an experienced trader and you'd like to learn more about this program, I'd refer you back to the original podcast announcing the service. It can be found here: If you'd like to register for the service, simply click this link and complete the form: Again, the first calendar month is just $100. After that, the fee is $500 per calendar month but, as you can see, the performance can quite easily pay for itself.

One other thing that members receive is Andy's weekly commentary. There are a lot of big-dollar individuals worldwide who subscribe to Andy's services simply to receive these updates. As a Turd Army regular, you get to see them, too. There is no one on the face of the planet more qualified to charge for precious metal commentary than Andy. As a 30-year veteran of London gold and silver trading, he has an extensive list of contacts and clients as well as a depth of knowledge and experience that is unmatched. If you want to know what is really going on, Andy will tell you every weekend when he posts his commentary.

Andy has granted me permission to copy-and-paste an excerpt from last weekend's commentary. Here he addresses the hubbub surrounding the "London Trader" story of June 8. ( This is the type of valuable information that members receive every weekend.

MetalsTrades Commentary - June 24th 2012
I will start by answering some excellent, member questions….
…“I came across this article yesterday, claiming the 515 metric tons dumped in the market place per "The London Trader", did not happen as they were unable to see it on the open interest. Would appreciate Andrew’s input and rebuttal.”

This is a good question and considering COT inspired waterfall selloff events usually follow a similar pattern, it is worth taking the time to follow the footprints through this specific event. This dissection will be helpful for a lot of members as this is a common and very profitable ongoing COT, (Bullion Bank), MO and should help clear up a lot of confusion amongst market participants regarding the relationship between the Comex vs. the OTC spot and physical markets.
This blogger expresses a healthy skepticism, is well measured and rational but makes a few commonly held false assumptions that I will seek to address. I will start by pasting the relevant sections directly from the blog…
………”He does not define the term “paper gold” but we can assume he means either London gold Forwards or COMEX gold Futures. This seems to be confirmed by his remark that the anonymous “Eastern buyers” will “patiently convert” their “paper gold” to “physical in the coming weeks.” I assume this means that they will stand for delivery of their contracts”…..

My response to this is No. Sovereign, CB and physical buyers in size do not buy paper gold contracts on the Comex; this refers to spot indexing in the OTC spot market in London. This is a classic case of the Comex tail wagging the much larger spot dog. Due to both leverage and the timed deployment of established and verifiable concentrated short Bullion bank COT positioning in the Comex paper market, the price of bullion is concurrently set in the spot market. This by default enables those seeking allocation of physical in size to take advantage of the resulting discounted spot prices and lock in spot purchases on intraday/month dips in the size they wish to take delivery of at an upcoming fix. This spot indexing transaction is simply an FX currency trade where the purchaser of physical is going long gold and short USD/ EUR etc., locking in the price of gold vs. that currency. Once spot XAU/ USD, XAU/EUR etc. has been purchased, the currency price for the size of allocation sought is locked in no matter how high the price of gold may rise to on the date the spot currency purchase is cashed in for physical at a bullion bank, producer or refiner etc. at that chosen days gold fix price.
Then…...” I also assume that he is not referring to naked, leveraged longs that are forced to liquidate as the price falls, due to margin calls. He explicitly said it was “the bullion banks” doing the selling of these 515 metric tons.

Let’s look at the numbers. 515 metric tons equals 16,557,634.5 troy ounces. Rounding to the nearest 100-ounce COMEX contract, this adds up to 165,576 contracts. 165,576 new contracts were dumped onto the market on June 7, according to the London Gold Trader…...”

In response, here is where a walkthrough of the event would be helpful….1st to the bones of the discussion.

There were indeed 165,555 GCQ contracts sold during the 4 hours in question, as described in the MT post in real time on the day it occurred. The selling emanated from a bullion bank and was initially instigated in the pit about 1 hour ahead of Bernanke’s speech. Although one might expect some last minute squaring/positioning ahead of pivotal news it in not normal to see short selling/new supply commence in size so far ahead of such a price moving event. With initial selling stemming out of the pit in noticeably large tranches, and as reported to me by my contacts from a name associated with a large bullion bank, this also had the intended effect of telegraphing sell intent to the locals.

Even with that information set aside, what the blogger is missing here is that almost all these contracts were subsequently covered by the bullion bank into the days pit close thereby not showing up in the closing OI #.This is a standard MO. Through concentration, creating sufficient new supply at commonly watched pivots in a very short period of time to swamp any bids distorting true supply demand fundamentals, then once the momentum is turned down, to buy back all originating short positions into freshly pitched longs and a whole array of freshly invited new shorts.

Obviously, there is always a long for every short etc. but nevertheless the equivalent of 515 tons of paper gold was sold that would not have been sold had the bullion banks not used the power of their concentration to create sufficient supply to instigate and then game carefully orchestrated air pockets for the market to do the rest of the heavy lifting. This resulted in a stair step transference of COT shorts and was conducted at the expense of, (MM, spec’s and techs), initially by tripping longs stops, then drawing in fresh short supply on the breach of very obvious technical supports. (In this case with volume through the well watched 50 & 10 DMA’s).

These progressive breaches activated stair step knee jerk momentum selling and flipped the always present ‘neutral algo’s’, (as dissected in a prior MT commentary), over to a sell side bias. Guess who was on the other side of those trades profitably buying back the newly instigated supply? The daily downward move was then consolidated with a bearish close just below the 10DMA. (Bear in mind long or short stops are clearly visible to the 2 COT bullion banks identified in the OCC reports, concurrently holding the book on over 97% of all OTC gold and silver derivatives, a market 10 times the size of the Comex. These 2 COT banks also maintain concentrated short controlling positions in the futures markets).

Now, breaking down the footprints in more detail….

Preceding the pit selling, obvious spoofing was seen which given the signature footprints had to be from a COT algo and foreshadowed mal intent. If you recall from the MT post, we saw a very strong showing at the PM fix with large allocation sought in size, yet into the fix, we saw a block order of 10,000 GCQ contracts hitting all the bids for an $8 drop ahead of the fix followed by 35,000 contracts hitting all the bids for another $20 followed by a small $5 rise into the pit close where we saw large allocation sought at 1606. At this point, some short covering was seen, looking like a bottom likely drawing in some new longs, followed by another 30K selling tranche followed by the residuals over the remaining couple of hours. There was an obvious round off of short covering of around 50K seen into the pit close. This exercise resulted in an extremely profitable trade which also opened a window to repay/rebuy some previously underwater gold leases here in London. I am very close to the physical market here and am almost certain this was the case.

Obviously, aside from my observations and sources, I verified my information with both a trusted pit contact and traders here in London; also independently I saw this from an individual who I respect, Jesse, who appears to have concluded similar observations.
Jesse comments 08 June … “One has to consider information such as this as input to be compared to other things, since we cannot directly view what the unidentified source is specifically seeing.
However, having watched the tape in real time and looked at the changes in Open Interest, it seems to be a credible description of what happened.
It also tracks closely with my own view of the game which we are in…”

I hope my sharing this with you has been helpful.

Once again, if you are an experienced trader, I urge you to consider this service. The goal is to profit by trading along and against The Cartels and then convert each monthly gain into physical metal, thereby decreasing their available supply. If we only have a handful of members, the physical effect is negligible. However, if we can get a couple hundred folks working this program...well, then maybe we could have an impact. Regardless of that, in the end, members of The Army will be consistently adding to their stacks of physical, and there's certainly nothing wrong with that.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 1:09am

This weekend. . .

the comments have really taken a shitty turn as of late. Seriously, aside from IS7, 47, Saratoga, SRS, Dr. G and a very small handful of others, there's so much confrontation and plain stupid shit.

Can't wait until the few bugs are worked out on the sister site, so I can join. This updates are great, the commentary is a waste of time. This will be my last comment. Bye guys, its been real.

Jul 1, 2012 - 1:12am

@Big Buffalow

I am unable to find YOUR interesting discussion thread in which to engage you further. There is non.

We are ALL responsible for the content of this board - Thank you for your useful comments and enlightenment.- (sarc).

Sitting in the shadows and then springing up to complain about others complaining and then running away - respect man - (sarc).

Are you part of the problem or part of the solution?


Dagney Taggart Bugzy
Jul 1, 2012 - 1:22am


IMO anarchy is misinterpreted (thanks to the corporate media and indoctrination camps). In pure anarchy, people are self-regulating and form symbiotic relationships by choice, not force. Big brothers are useless.

Most picture anarchy as rioting youths and the like. It's more like mindless destruction to me.

You're right though: Property rights must be enforced. By who though? A third party? Maybe. A third party who can steal the property for themselves? No.

Nick Elway
Jul 1, 2012 - 1:30am

World's Smallest Political Quiz

"The Political Compass" Test reminded me of the saying "You'd complain if we hung you with a new rope!"

Here's the first question: "If economic globalisation is inevitable, it should primarily serve humanity rather than the interests of trans-national corporations." Might has well have been "If we're going to hang you anyway, it should be with a hemp rope instead of a nylon rope." Just look at the words "globalisation" "humanity" "trans-national corporations" and the pushed "either-or" of "humanity" versus "trans-national corporations". This is as bad as the push-polls I get from the Republicans and Democrats!

Please have a look at the "World's Smallest Political Quiz" (around since 1970) Only 10 questions and it takes less than a minute!

There I'm a full-on Libertarian.

Jul 1, 2012 - 1:31am

Why So Serious?

Geez, I take a break from my project, check here & find all this pissin' & moanin' & people leaving as though anybody should give a rats ass about them leaving.

Hey, if you don't like the commentary and want to leave, then just leave, SILENTLY. Complaining about the "shitty comments", in itself a shitty comment, and THEN leaving only makes you a hypocrite.

Personally, I think there's all sorts of reasons to be upbeat this weekend, not downbeat. Friday was a nice up day for a change. The COT numbers look promising. Many indicators are giving hope that the bottom is FINALLY in. Turd is on record as saying in no uncertain terms this summer will be 'explosive', especially in silver.

I don't know about everybody else, but I find those things positive and its certainly improved my mood.

On top of all that, we have this really nice thunderstorm going on right now, totally unforeseen by the weather bureau, in the middle of a ghastly heat wave and my parched garden is this very moment getting a good long deep drink of fresh rainwater.

Pretty soon I'll be awash in fresh tomatoes, melons, summer squash, green beans, bell peppers & okra, and that's just for starts.

Yeah, I know, it could all turn south Monday - the floor could fall out and silver take another nausea inducing plunge, but that's two days away.

For now I'm kickin' back and enjoying the thunder & rain & (relatively) cool breeze.

Some people need to take a few chill pills & enjoy the scenery.

Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 1:46am


On subjects in which there are far smarter and informed folks, I sit back and learn. I make light and humorous comments to have fun while learning, if you actually read comments, you'll notice I've had a fair share of hat tips in the last several months.

Then there are shits like you, that open your mouth (type) before your brain starts to work. Just so you can somewhat feel important. can shut your mouth, because if I wanted to hear an asshole talk, I would have farted. You useless piece of lint.

Jul 1, 2012 - 1:54am


I think it is more of a problem associated with big city's where anonymity can wreak havoc. One can hurt another - often without consequence.

Small community's are indeed self regulating with mutual respect of property or expulsion/a good kicking by the majority.

If laws went tomorrow - the thin veneer of a civil society would indeed lead to looting etc. We are not conditioned to be free. (I remember a water boil advisory in Vancouver and folk were literally fighting in Costco over bottled water).

There needs to be accountability - which in turn leads to some set of generally accepted ways of being. One could agree not to interfere with the lives of others.........but what if there are shortages and the tree with fruit has more in need of the fruit than there is fruit. Would my taking fruit interfere with the next guy who now has no food?

That said - the video earlier today re traffic in Holland was telling. Too many regulations make it easy to claim that someone else was a fault. With no regulation people had to increase their personal responsibility. People had to wake up.

All the rules we have remove responsibility from us. We need to be more response - able. The more freedom with good knowledge the more self governing we become.

It seems we are kept almost in fight or flight and the lower levels of Maslows triangle by design.

Power will not give up its power. How do we take it back?

There will be shortages going forward and people will starve to death (peak oil and population). Who gets to choose or is it a battle of the strongest?

Very complicated question - thank you for engaging.


Jul 1, 2012 - 1:55am


The Nolan Chart is an oldie but goodie too.

I guess you should average them all together?

I got 0.0/-3 on the "Political Compass" quiz

(A little bit libertarian down the middle?)

Jul 1, 2012 - 1:56am

@big buffallow

Welcome back

Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 2:07am


i can make shitty comments with the best of them..

Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 2:08am


I actually like you. We would probably get along very well, considering your gardening comments.

I'm complaining b/c I miss the fun on this board. I had really really enjoyed the folks on this. There were great comments, people were supportive and informative. I've learned a ton from those folks.

You can't disagree with me that comments have taken a turn from even just a few weeks ago.

I'm also complaining b/c I felt like I was a part of a group of cool people, now the playground is full assholes who think they're cooler than others and put people down rather than lift them up.

I read Zerohedge. I love the articles. The comments there are shit. The comments here are headed there in quick order.

Jul 1, 2012 - 2:13am

@big buffallow

I am unable to find a flaw with your ... comments

Re Balls.........gotcha!

Now how about we have a proper discussion?



Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 2:14am


salty , right? yeah I didn't shower today after mowing the lawn. You'll enjoy them anyway.

Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 2:17am


say you're sorry for starting. . .then slap yourself. . .then cut your wrists. . .then get back to me.


Jul 1, 2012 - 2:18am

Shortest test

Thanks, Nick. I knew, but still interesting to see it in print. Not a perfect Libertarian, but close enough. According to my parents I was "born ornery" and not at all inclined to do as I was told.

Your PERSONAL issues Score is 90%

Your ECONOMIC issues Score is 100%


Bickering makes me .

Jul 1, 2012 - 2:18am

If you read nothing else today, read this!

A very well written, insightful telling of Truth to Power!

They don’t want the public to see the future too clearly because they fear the truth would be too much for us to handle, and cause panic they are unready to cope with, along with deep resentment at the government for allowing things to get so bad (let alone for their failing to curtail wrongdoing after it’s been brought to their attention). So they distract, dissemble and offer promises of reform, saying: Hey, It’s okay. We dodged the bullet. Things will be difficult, but in the end, we’ll come shining through because were America, and we can do anything!

Except pay the bill. The fact of the matter, the undeniable, irrefutable arithmetic is that we are not going to be able to pay the bill as it comes due and keep the country reasonably free from soaring misery and discontent.

US Senator Byron Dorgan speaks of “modern-day bank robbers” deploying “anything goes” capitalism in a system they’ve rigged so they “always win” by wielding “unfair advantage over average consumers and taxpayers”— with “no accountability.” Americans “watching selfishness prevail over the public interest” he says, is not only “injuring the economy” but “undermining the public’s trust in government.“ (where many of theTeabaggers are coming from).

For those who follow the subject closely, selfishness is PC for plain oldstealing. But then Wall Street has long considered Main Street “the dumb money.” theirs, almost by right, and certainly by tradition, for the taking. Not surprisingly, they created a culture of corruption that’s proven itself bad to the bone. What other industry has literally dozens of words and phrases characterizing unethical, illicit conduct? (Backdating, Channel stuffing, Cherry picking, Churning, Cookie jar reserves, Cooking the books, Dummy accounts, Earnings management, Flipping, Fomenting, Free-riding, Front running, Insider trading, Late trading, Lulling, Market timing, Marking the close, Matching orders, Naked options, Naked short selling, Off balance sheet, Painting the tape, Ponzi scheme, Puffing, Pump and dump, Pyramid scheme, Round-tripping, Scalping, Selling away, Short and distort, Spinning, Spring loading, Tipping, Touting, Trading ahead, etc., etc., etc.) God’s work, indeed.

Big Buffalo
Jul 1, 2012 - 2:19am


judging by most of the comments as of late. . .all this stupid shit I'm doing now fits right in.

Most of those I respect have left for the other site. However, out of respect for Turd, I will not continue.

Jul 1, 2012 - 2:27am


If I had have known how fragile your ego was, I would have been even more gentle with you.

You have most sincere apology.


Jul 1, 2012 - 2:41am

So that's settled then

I'm a liberal libertarian... Makes sense I guess

@magpie and saratoga prepper - thanks for the kind wishes. Yes indeed, the fact my boy has gone from basically being a slug to a running, jabbering, willful puzzle solver in just a year tells me I have a lot to look forward to! He's so going to kick my ass debating, I can just feel it.

Today he got the 12th addition to his stack

Jul 1, 2012 - 2:55am

Nite all!

John Prine - The Sins of Memphisto
John Prine's Some Humans Ain't Human
Video unavailable
Jul 1, 2012 - 3:12am


JD: Why did you subscribe to a service run by someone you infer (along with Turd apparently) is a 'conspiracy theorist'?

Your moaning about performance just reflects personal incompetence. Am sure you own a mirror. Also if you are going to flame Andy you may as well learn how to spell his name, it does you no favours being unable to spell.

All the dumping on Turd is just the www version of road rage, all very immature and yet also understandable as you know you are unlikely to get the shit kicked out of you for flaming anonymously

​As for claiming that Victor should be held up as an example, well excuse me if I don't cheerlead, but he has REPEATEDLY failed to pick up the gauntlet thrown at him. He claims the manipulation is "BS", yet when called out on the details he goes all quiet. Equally he is always very quick to question the validity of Andy's background, yet when I ask why the CFTC, JPM themselves and the lawyers take him at face value and haven't yet called the source of all wisdom (is this Victor's real job?):

for his thoughts, he goes verrry quiet. Victor please do feel free to expand, the open invitation remains open, I would love to revisit the subject of manipulation BS or Andy the faker with you if you are up to/for it.

Meanwhile, let the trollolo v 'brainwashed sucker' games carry on, its all good stuff, except when you show bad manners in calling Turd a shill. If you really don't know how to behave then I blame your parents, but meanwhile, please consider yourself introduced to the :

Jul 1, 2012 - 3:23am

silver weekly chart....

just taking a closer look at this chart put up by agstacker over on his forum....looks like the next week or two might be quite telling...on a chart that is.;topic=9225.0;atta...

Jul 1, 2012 - 7:08am

Sprott full of it

The Euro crisis is PM negative, not positive. Not because of some clever macro or micro analysis but just because the Hedge Funds say so. If Sprott thought otherwise he'd be out there buying like he did at Xmas at $26-50. Ask me, he's just talking his book.

Jul 1, 2012 - 7:38am

foggyroad............GOLD WAVE 5 RUNUP

thanks for the Prine.

as good as anyone.


since you don't know him it may not mean much......but my local Prof Ph. D. Econ/chartist [with a paid service and an EXCELLANT record] says his multiple lists/algos are pointing to.................

wave 5 runup in gold/silver with new high [bigtime] starting in days/week[s].........maybe last friday.

tho he thoroughly understands the debt/credit bubble and PMs.....and is politically conservative meaning he gets the nannystate/debt issue.....and has a DOW 5000[unless inflated up] mid-long forecast low.............he is NOT what u would call a gold bug.....he would ride tulips up and sell them at a high.

BIGTIME DEAL...............

this ECHOES TURD'S recent comments, i might add.

TF....i'm right there with you buddy.

Bluefin771 Magpie
Jul 1, 2012 - 7:49am

Peckerwood Test Link

@Magpie From Peckerwood's post all I got was Obama and Romney are neighbors. Peckerwood really didn't say where he was positioned on the chart. I did find it interesting, but not surprising, that the leadership was positioned so closely together. Goes to show that the direction of the country is set, just the leadership for that direction is up for grabs. Interesting too that Thatcher falls right into the same group. Number 47's comments on the Iron Lady make more sense now. I wonder where all the 190 some leaders of the planet fall? Maybe that would be a better guide for where to immigrate. Ditto for state governor's, all politicians in general and judges (thinking Supreme Court here). Heck, I'd like to see the test scores for graduating seniors from today's educational systems. Scores for those that don't complete school, but get to vote anyway, would be interesting too. And in the "what I'd like" category, I'd like an accurate analysis of a what was said versus what was done. But I'd also like a questioning Fourth Estate. Sure seems like a useful tool for the Powerz in directing what propaganda area needs boosting to move opinion in the desired direction (and one I expect is deployed already). Also explains why I find mainstream media so tedious and uninteresting. The questions on religion and religious aspects were a bit tricky. I looked at those questions, where the particular religion was not specified, and substituted as if the major ones (Christianity, Muslim, Hinduism, Confucianism) were specified. That moved the response up and down the scale on several questions. More than a few questions were not as I'd frame them. But None or All of the Above was not an option. Like you Magpie I fell into the Friedman quadrant with a 3.9/-4.6 score. I wonder where all the Founding Fathers fell, not just the big names but the complete signing list? Running forward through history an average score of the leadership by country and the world's major events/wars would be enlightening. Humanity appears to have a tendency towards authoritarianism and war for the 20/21 centuries and the current leadership crop sure points to more war in the near future. Click on the EU portion so see where that leadership group falls.

Ernie Pantusso TF
Jul 1, 2012 - 8:32am

Turd and stacking

I wrote that maybe you are advising no options anymore because you know what it's going to happen will trigger the options default clause. I don't know where I wrote you are confusing or deceiving. Keep it cool Turd!

Original message:


you don't speak about buying call options any more. Just stacking.

I'm sure I'm not the only one having noticed it.

If prices are going up, one could think that options too are... an option

So, I wandered why just stacking

I rememberd that options have this default clause. If war, famine, armageddon etc. kick in, they become worthless.

Could it be that the thing you are referring to (shortage, cftc silver investigation decision, Salinas Price winning his battle making the libertad official money in Mexico, I don't know), could it be that the thing you are referring to will be one of the sort that will trigger the options default clause? Is this the reason why you are avoiding the options option?

A further thought.

If the thing Turd is referring to will be not a physical shortage but nevertheless triggering the default clause, there will be a lot of money theoretically invested in silver, which is actually not

I don't know the stats but I guess that the most money invested in silver is currently in derivatives, not physical.

So, most of todays silver investors will find themselves suddenly out of the market.

Precisely when the silver price starts finally going up...

What will happen? My point is not just that they will come back in, but that they'll come back in as quick as possible

My second point is that having been burnt one time, they will be very very careful not to experience the same for a second time

So I 'm not sure they'll go with futures or slv

This will put a big pressure on the physical market

My point is, even if Turd's thing is not a shortage, the process I'm talking about (if the physical market is tight) will probably cause a worldwide shortage

My second point is, if Turd's thing will push the pos up, the process I'm talking about will give a supplementary boost, maybe even bigger than Turd's thing

Lamenting Laverne
Jul 1, 2012 - 8:41am

Random thoughts and a bit of tinfoil

Russia calls back a ship with refurbished helicopters en route to Syria. Rumors that Assad is in house arrest, without Russia retaliating so far (No source - read it somewhere on ZH - take it with big grain of salt).

US grants exemption to China and Singapore from the SWIFT sanctions, which leaves only Afghanistan and Pakistan in the club of sanctioned.

Obama calls a state of emergency because payments to Russia for downgraded atomic fuel is in risk of not being made. Why, has yet to be dissected and discussed in this forum. I made a clumsy attempt to start the discussion the other day, but without much luck.

Greek Prime Minister and Finance Minister not able to join EU summit for medical reasons, that may or may not have been urgent. It ensured that any big news about Greece would not be expected.

Monti is said, via Spiegel, to have held the summit hostage into the wee hours of Friday along with Rajoy, by refusing to agree to the Growth Pact before Merkel had agreed to allowing the ESM to provide direct aid to the banks, and to forego seniority of the ESM for Spanish bonds, because the Spanish aid would be initiated through the EFSF.

It is said, that the leverage for Monti's success was that Merkel needed approval for the Growth Pact before the German Parliamentary vote on the Fiscal Pact on Friday, because the Growth Pact was her bargaining chip in the deal with the German Social Democrats to ensure their yes to the Fiscal Pact.

Can anyone closer to the domestic debate in Germany confirm that the Growth Pact bargaining chip is true?

I ask, because I remember clearly, that the news at the time stated that Merkel had secured the promise for a yes vote to the Fiscal Pact from the Social Democrats by supporting their demand for a Financial Transaction Tax. The Growth Pact was not mentioned back then as far as I remember.

In fact, the Growth Pact was very much Hollande's baby, for which he gained support from Monti and Rajoy to pressure Merkel to balance her austerity campaign. And now we are supposed to believe that she was so enamored with the idea, that she would let her "over my dead body" baby flow out with the bath water to ensure a yes vote, she already had ensured by other means, in a long and allegedly dramatic meeting to the wee hours of Friday, where Monti was announced broadly with fanfare and fireworks to have emerged as the sole victor. Hmmm.

Tinfoil warning:

I wonder, if this display was meant to ensure:

1) That the room would be vacated by the non-euro country participants, who went back to their hotels at midnight, in time for the real discussions to begin. When discussing the big gun, you need as few potential sources of leaks as possible, and the non-euro countries may or may not share the interests of the euro countries, if e.g. a one sided devaluation is in play.

2) That the disarmament of public expectations regarding Greece, would allow for greater effect, because expectations would immediately turn to Spain and Italy anyway, so why not try to meet the craving for the latter.

3) The time of night may not be a coincidence, and that there could have been channels open to both the US and Asia during that meeting. Bruce Krasting had an interesting post on ZH today regarding coordinated CB action for devaluation of the Euro. Also, the recent developments suggests some degree of reconciliation or at least backing off a bit on the big geo-playing field. (Or maybe it is just the calm before the storm).

4) A temporary and coordinated boost to the markets to buy a little more time, before the big gun is fired, whatever that gun will turn out to be. I don't believe, that they have time until October (Interim report on details) let alone December (Final report on details for supervisory authority etc.) before the market makes the unmentionable gesture and goes swooosch.

I don't know anything of course, but it seems to me that there is more to the seeming backtrack of Merkel. Besides, it may actually be in her interest to get out of the model that will only increase sovereign debt and hence worsen the spiral, while still retaining the ability to veto anything later that does not meet the required standards, due to the oversight demand, that was not relinquished. Ultimately the German constitutional court will probably decide the outcome, possibly coupled with a referendum, and she will not have been seen as the one to pull the plug.

Yeah I know - mostly blahh blahh blahh, and any clarifying perspective on connecting the above dots are welcome.


Bruce Krasting:

Greek Medicals:

EU Summit Hour by Hour Drama:

EU Summit pII: EU Summit pIII:

Russian Ship:

US Exemptions:

Jul 1, 2012 - 8:44am

options and futures default clauses

let's think out of the box.

Everything done so far in QE and TARP etc has been done to aid the big banks.

CME has just been deemed to be TBTF

The big banks are apparently closing out their short positions and going long.

That makes at least in theory a big move up imminent. Global printing (and UK might be printing more this week) backs that up.

So why, if the big banks are going long PM, and hedge funds still short, would the exchanges say force majeure and just let the hedgies off the hook in paying off the big banks? If anything our esteemed govt would let the CME declare a problem and TARP them over it, and once again let the taxpayer support the big banks in letting them get paid off on their long contracts. Which by the way would be a huge circuitous route in backdooring more aid to the TBTF banks. and shoring up their balance sheet. Stick it to the hedgies and stick it to the taxpauers. Some mechanics need to be worked out.

If the TBTF banks are leveraged long PM and gold goes back over 1900 and perhaps much higher, and silver goes back over 50 and perhaps much higher, and the banks rack it all in, all of a sudden their balance sheets look great from some great trading. The knew when to go short and knew when to go long.

The next issue would be unearthing a tax covenant whereby the banks defer taxation on the positions.

Just saying.

we should just be riding the coattails of the big banks. And with taxes scheduled to rise next year, I would not be surprised to see PM make a big move up the rest of this year and then selloff in November early December. Noting to do with fundamentals--just control of the market.

Jul 1, 2012 - 8:52am

PM's ready to take off?

One last thing I want to point out this week is the swap dealers are now net short only 28,800 ounces of the yellow metal. Compare that to just a week ago when they were short 1,122,500 ounces and two weeks ago when they were short 1,959,800 ounces.

Jul 1, 2012 - 9:09am


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