The Army Advances

301
Sat, Jun 30, 2012 - 11:19am

Turd's Army, led by Brigadier General Andrew Maguire, made significant advances against enemy positions in June.

Keep in mind how this works. As a member of Andy's service, "DayTrades", you get to follow along to see where and when Andy puts on positions throughout the trading day. Two important items:

  1. The bulk of this trading takes place during London market hours.
  2. The service has just recently made a significant upgrade to their server speeds. This will allow members to see Andy's moves almost instantaneously.

For example, here's a snippet of yesterday's feed:

08:53:14 andy: stops seen on the last test of the high, I am buying one lot of Gold here
08:53:28 andy: 1593.60
08:53:46 andy: target 1598
08:55:28 andy: taking profit here at market
08:55:33 andy: 1597
08:55:40 andy: closing stop
08:56:39 andy: may see some fix painting shortly so a pull back to 1589 would be a likely entry
09:02:47 andy: 1602 saw strong defence/ resistance but the stops above would expose stops to 1618/20,possibly see a pull back first , in the next hour..
10:11:58 andy: I am selling one lot of Gold here 1598.90 stop 1599.30
10:12:37 andy: target 1595.20
10:13:31 andy: this is a speculative A/R pivot so tight stop
10:20:02 andy: stopped

Below is a chart of the cumulative performance of "The Army" since inception back in April.

Month Perf Cum. Perf.
Apr 12 $2,810 $2,810
May 12 $5,590 $8,400
Jun 12 $7,570 $16,070

And here is the day-to-day breakdown for June:

Cumulative Performance for June 2012: $7,570
* P/L based upon each lot consisting of a ONE contract of each vehicle.
Date Gold Silver P/L *
June 1st $2,830 - $2,830
June 2nd - - -
June 3rd - - -
June 4th - - -
June 5th - - -
June 6th $170 - $170
June 7th $200 - $200
June 8th $280 - $280
June 9th - - -
June 10th - - -
June 11th $420 - $420
June 12th $380 - $380
June 13th $190 - $190
June 14th $490 - $490
June 15th $200 - $200
June 16th - - -
June 17th - - -
June 18th -$10 - -$10
June 19th $320 - $320
June 20th $490 - $490
June 21st $630 - $630
June 22nd -$10 - -$10
June 23rd - - -
June 24th - - -
June 25th -$20 - -$20
June 26th $250 - $250
June 27th $200 - $200
June 28th - - -
June 29th $360 - -
June 30th - - -
TOTAL $7,570

What this shows is that a trader who followed Andy's trades exactly (Which, admittedly, can be a little challenging sometimes. You have to be committed and paying attention.) is up $16,070 over the past 2.5 months. And this is only trading one contract, every single time. And this is also in an extremely challenging market environment. After fees and less whatever commission you pay your broker, the member is probably up at least 13Gs. Not too shabby. That's eight, shiny and sparkly gold eagles in your safe to help you survive the coming onslaught.

If you're an experienced trader and you'd like to learn more about this program, I'd refer you back to the original podcast announcing the service. It can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-anno.... If you'd like to register for the service, simply click this link and complete the form: https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army. Again, the first calendar month is just $100. After that, the fee is $500 per calendar month but, as you can see, the performance can quite easily pay for itself.

One other thing that members receive is Andy's weekly commentary. There are a lot of big-dollar individuals worldwide who subscribe to Andy's services simply to receive these updates. As a Turd Army regular, you get to see them, too. There is no one on the face of the planet more qualified to charge for precious metal commentary than Andy. As a 30-year veteran of London gold and silver trading, he has an extensive list of contacts and clients as well as a depth of knowledge and experience that is unmatched. If you want to know what is really going on, Andy will tell you every weekend when he posts his commentary.

Andy has granted me permission to copy-and-paste an excerpt from last weekend's commentary. Here he addresses the hubbub surrounding the "London Trader" story of June 8. ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/8_London_Trader_-_Staggering_515_Tons_of_Gold_Sold_in_4_Hours.html) This is the type of valuable information that members receive every weekend.

MetalsTrades Commentary - June 24th 2012
I will start by answering some excellent, member questions….
…“I came across this article yesterday, claiming the 515 metric tons dumped in the market place per "The London Trader", did not happen as they were unable to see it on the open interest. Would appreciate Andrew’s input and rebuttal.”
Regards…

This is a good question and considering COT inspired waterfall selloff events usually follow a similar pattern, it is worth taking the time to follow the footprints through this specific event. This dissection will be helpful for a lot of members as this is a common and very profitable ongoing COT, (Bullion Bank), MO and should help clear up a lot of confusion amongst market participants regarding the relationship between the Comex vs. the OTC spot and physical markets.
This blogger expresses a healthy skepticism, is well measured and rational but makes a few commonly held false assumptions that I will seek to address. I will start by pasting the relevant sections directly from the blog…
………”He does not define the term “paper gold” but we can assume he means either London gold Forwards or COMEX gold Futures. This seems to be confirmed by his remark that the anonymous “Eastern buyers” will “patiently convert” their “paper gold” to “physical in the coming weeks.” I assume this means that they will stand for delivery of their contracts”…..


My response to this is No. Sovereign, CB and physical buyers in size do not buy paper gold contracts on the Comex; this refers to spot indexing in the OTC spot market in London. This is a classic case of the Comex tail wagging the much larger spot dog. Due to both leverage and the timed deployment of established and verifiable concentrated short Bullion bank COT positioning in the Comex paper market, the price of bullion is concurrently set in the spot market. This by default enables those seeking allocation of physical in size to take advantage of the resulting discounted spot prices and lock in spot purchases on intraday/month dips in the size they wish to take delivery of at an upcoming fix. This spot indexing transaction is simply an FX currency trade where the purchaser of physical is going long gold and short USD/ EUR etc., locking in the price of gold vs. that currency. Once spot XAU/ USD, XAU/EUR etc. has been purchased, the currency price for the size of allocation sought is locked in no matter how high the price of gold may rise to on the date the spot currency purchase is cashed in for physical at a bullion bank, producer or refiner etc. at that chosen days gold fix price.
Then…...” I also assume that he is not referring to naked, leveraged longs that are forced to liquidate as the price falls, due to margin calls. He explicitly said it was “the bullion banks” doing the selling of these 515 metric tons.

Let’s look at the numbers. 515 metric tons equals 16,557,634.5 troy ounces. Rounding to the nearest 100-ounce COMEX contract, this adds up to 165,576 contracts. 165,576 new contracts were dumped onto the market on June 7, according to the London Gold Trader…...”

In response, here is where a walkthrough of the event would be helpful….1st to the bones of the discussion.


There were indeed 165,555 GCQ contracts sold during the 4 hours in question, as described in the MT post in real time on the day it occurred. The selling emanated from a bullion bank and was initially instigated in the pit about 1 hour ahead of Bernanke’s speech. Although one might expect some last minute squaring/positioning ahead of pivotal news it in not normal to see short selling/new supply commence in size so far ahead of such a price moving event. With initial selling stemming out of the pit in noticeably large tranches, and as reported to me by my contacts from a name associated with a large bullion bank, this also had the intended effect of telegraphing sell intent to the locals.

Even with that information set aside, what the blogger is missing here is that almost all these contracts were subsequently covered by the bullion bank into the days pit close thereby not showing up in the closing OI #.This is a standard MO. Through concentration, creating sufficient new supply at commonly watched pivots in a very short period of time to swamp any bids distorting true supply demand fundamentals, then once the momentum is turned down, to buy back all originating short positions into freshly pitched longs and a whole array of freshly invited new shorts.

Obviously, there is always a long for every short etc. but nevertheless the equivalent of 515 tons of paper gold was sold that would not have been sold had the bullion banks not used the power of their concentration to create sufficient supply to instigate and then game carefully orchestrated air pockets for the market to do the rest of the heavy lifting. This resulted in a stair step transference of COT shorts and was conducted at the expense of, (MM, spec’s and techs), initially by tripping longs stops, then drawing in fresh short supply on the breach of very obvious technical supports. (In this case with volume through the well watched 50 & 10 DMA’s).

These progressive breaches activated stair step knee jerk momentum selling and flipped the always present ‘neutral algo’s’, (as dissected in a prior MT commentary), over to a sell side bias. Guess who was on the other side of those trades profitably buying back the newly instigated supply? The daily downward move was then consolidated with a bearish close just below the 10DMA. (Bear in mind long or short stops are clearly visible to the 2 COT bullion banks identified in the OCC reports, concurrently holding the book on over 97% of all OTC gold and silver derivatives, a market 10 times the size of the Comex. These 2 COT banks also maintain concentrated short controlling positions in the futures markets).

Now, breaking down the footprints in more detail….

Preceding the pit selling, obvious spoofing was seen which given the signature footprints had to be from a COT algo and foreshadowed mal intent. If you recall from the MT post, we saw a very strong showing at the PM fix with large allocation sought in size, yet into the fix, we saw a block order of 10,000 GCQ contracts hitting all the bids for an $8 drop ahead of the fix followed by 35,000 contracts hitting all the bids for another $20 followed by a small $5 rise into the pit close where we saw large allocation sought at 1606. At this point, some short covering was seen, looking like a bottom likely drawing in some new longs, followed by another 30K selling tranche followed by the residuals over the remaining couple of hours. There was an obvious round off of short covering of around 50K seen into the pit close. This exercise resulted in an extremely profitable trade which also opened a window to repay/rebuy some previously underwater gold leases here in London. I am very close to the physical market here and am almost certain this was the case.

Obviously, aside from my observations and sources, I verified my information with both a trusted pit contact and traders here in London; also independently I saw this from an individual who I respect, Jesse, who appears to have concluded similar observations.
Jesse comments 08 June … “One has to consider information such as this as input to be compared to other things, since we cannot directly view what the unidentified source is specifically seeing.
However, having watched the tape in real time and looked at the changes in Open Interest, it seems to be a credible description of what happened.
It also tracks closely with my own view of the game which we are in…”


I hope my sharing this with you has been helpful.

Once again, if you are an experienced trader, I urge you to consider this service. The goal is to profit by trading along and against The Cartels and then convert each monthly gain into physical metal, thereby decreasing their available supply. If we only have a handful of members, the physical effect is negligible. However, if we can get a couple hundred folks working this program...well, then maybe we could have an impact. Regardless of that, in the end, members of The Army will be consistently adding to their stacks of physical, and there's certainly nothing wrong with that.

Have a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  301 Comments

John Galt
Jun 30, 2012 - 12:28pm

Turd`s Army? The new SLA?

Turd's Army sounds an awful lot like Max Keiser's SLA (Silver Liberation Army).

Perhaps you guys should join forces.

As an added bonus to your army I do have to give you and Andy credit for employing tactics that are far more sophisticated and specific than what the SLA employs, which is basically: "BTFD; Crash JPM; Buy Silver, Bitchez!"

P.S. Are we safe to assume that Brigadier General Maguire will outrank Max's General Rasta in these combined forces?

John Galt
Jun 30, 2012 - 12:31pm

I Nominate Dagney

Taggart for Field Marshall in the combined TA/SLA

murphy
Jun 30, 2012 - 12:47pm

good graph

Ag CoT

Look at the silver CoT graph, will ya...

#194 is going to be a really fun newsletter to write. The first one even resembling fun in a few weeks. Finally we've got the goons (US and their Euro goon counterparts) behind us and it looks like the analysis is (finally) being confirmed and finally knows what the #%@$! it is doing in the immediate term as well as the intermediate term.

Have a nice weekend.











https://biiwii.blogspot.com/2012/06/ag-cot.html?utm_source=feedburner&ut...

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oR4hv78z1Hc/T-4L2-B8UfI/AAAAAAAAJ0c/_kmbod6AF...

Istack
Jun 30, 2012 - 12:48pm

Meaning of "Breathtaking"

i visualize the scene in Ocean's Eleven where they are all gazing at the water display

Bellagio fountain show in movie oceans 11
balz
Jun 30, 2012 - 12:48pm
¤
Jun 30, 2012 - 1:04pm

Thanks

...for the in-depth update on a Saturday.

Headed out into the hot, bright and bone dry day.

I'll check in later, but first....some music to sooth the savage PM animal in most of us.

Animals - Pink Floyd [Full Album] - Hybrid 4 track Version
Island Guy
Jun 30, 2012 - 1:06pm

Am I Understanding this Right?

The post today had several very important points, including the confirmation that the Cartel intentionally times their actions just prior to Fed speeches, and the massive selling of paper gold is immediately covered the same day to help cover the Cartel's tracks.

All of this has been suspected previously, and discussed at length in Turd's blog.

The bit of news that took me by surprise is the off-the-cuff statement that the bullion banks making up the Cartel actually have access to the stops put in place by the hedge funds and other large traders:

(Bear in mind long or short stops are clearly visible to the 2 COT bullion banks identified in the OCC reports, concurrently holding the book on over 97% of all OTC gold and silver derivatives, a market 10 times the size of the Comex. These 2 COT banks also maintain concentrated short controlling positions in the futures markets).

Am I reading this right? Are the bullion banks the de facto "market makers" for precious metals, and hence get to see what stops and buy orders the market has in place long before they are executed? If true, then any trading at all by the bullion banks would be an incredible violation of fiduciary duties.

How can they get away with this? The bullion banks would be playing both sides, and using information confidentially entrusted to them to fleece the very customers who trusted them with this information. This would make the precious metals market the most corrupt and manipulated market in history.

If any of this is true, the hedge funds should go after the bullion banks with everything they've got! I must not be understanding the comment about the Cartel knowing the stops and buy positions. Can someone clarify this for me?

bammurphy
Jun 30, 2012 - 1:22pm

@Murph

You follow Gary over at biiwii?

I've been a subscriber to his newsletter for years. Good solid, balanced macro analysis. Sure he's wrong at times, but HOW he goes about analyzing the markets is the key; He's non denominational so to speak. For me, the analysis allows me to have a solid backdrop to make more informed investment decisions.

He's been managing a theme this year that hasn't quite played out yet, and he's recently lost a few subscribers because of it. I consider that bullish in terms of the theme he presents.

This reads like a plug. Oh well.

bamIsland Guy
Jun 30, 2012 - 1:25pm

@Island Guy

>Am I reading this right? Are the bullion banks the de facto "market makers" for precious metals, and hence get to see what stops and buy orders the market has in place long before they are executed? If true, then any trading at all by the bullion banks would be an incredible violation of fiduciary duties.

Of course they are the defacto market makers. They hold the gold. Who else could possibly do that job (and someone has to)?

They can get away with anything if regulators don't bother to do their jobs (likely at the behest of the Fed).

Wizdum
Jun 30, 2012 - 1:35pm

Make Pretend

I wrapped a stack of cash with aluminum foil to Make Pretend.
:D

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