The Army Advances

301
Sat, Jun 30, 2012 - 11:19am

Turd's Army, led by Brigadier General Andrew Maguire, made significant advances against enemy positions in June.

Keep in mind how this works. As a member of Andy's service, "DayTrades", you get to follow along to see where and when Andy puts on positions throughout the trading day. Two important items:

  1. The bulk of this trading takes place during London market hours.
  2. The service has just recently made a significant upgrade to their server speeds. This will allow members to see Andy's moves almost instantaneously.

For example, here's a snippet of yesterday's feed:

08:53:14 andy: stops seen on the last test of the high, I am buying one lot of Gold here
08:53:28 andy: 1593.60
08:53:46 andy: target 1598
08:55:28 andy: taking profit here at market
08:55:33 andy: 1597
08:55:40 andy: closing stop
08:56:39 andy: may see some fix painting shortly so a pull back to 1589 would be a likely entry
09:02:47 andy: 1602 saw strong defence/ resistance but the stops above would expose stops to 1618/20,possibly see a pull back first , in the next hour..
10:11:58 andy: I am selling one lot of Gold here 1598.90 stop 1599.30
10:12:37 andy: target 1595.20
10:13:31 andy: this is a speculative A/R pivot so tight stop
10:20:02 andy: stopped

Below is a chart of the cumulative performance of "The Army" since inception back in April.

Month Perf Cum. Perf.
Apr 12 $2,810 $2,810
May 12 $5,590 $8,400
Jun 12 $7,570 $16,070

And here is the day-to-day breakdown for June:

Cumulative Performance for June 2012: $7,570
* P/L based upon each lot consisting of a ONE contract of each vehicle.
Date Gold Silver P/L *
June 1st $2,830 - $2,830
June 2nd - - -
June 3rd - - -
June 4th - - -
June 5th - - -
June 6th $170 - $170
June 7th $200 - $200
June 8th $280 - $280
June 9th - - -
June 10th - - -
June 11th $420 - $420
June 12th $380 - $380
June 13th $190 - $190
June 14th $490 - $490
June 15th $200 - $200
June 16th - - -
June 17th - - -
June 18th -$10 - -$10
June 19th $320 - $320
June 20th $490 - $490
June 21st $630 - $630
June 22nd -$10 - -$10
June 23rd - - -
June 24th - - -
June 25th -$20 - -$20
June 26th $250 - $250
June 27th $200 - $200
June 28th - - -
June 29th $360 - -
June 30th - - -
TOTAL $7,570

What this shows is that a trader who followed Andy's trades exactly (Which, admittedly, can be a little challenging sometimes. You have to be committed and paying attention.) is up $16,070 over the past 2.5 months. And this is only trading one contract, every single time. And this is also in an extremely challenging market environment. After fees and less whatever commission you pay your broker, the member is probably up at least 13Gs. Not too shabby. That's eight, shiny and sparkly gold eagles in your safe to help you survive the coming onslaught.

If you're an experienced trader and you'd like to learn more about this program, I'd refer you back to the original podcast announcing the service. It can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3621/tfmr-podcast-16-special-anno.... If you'd like to register for the service, simply click this link and complete the form: https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army. Again, the first calendar month is just $100. After that, the fee is $500 per calendar month but, as you can see, the performance can quite easily pay for itself.

One other thing that members receive is Andy's weekly commentary. There are a lot of big-dollar individuals worldwide who subscribe to Andy's services simply to receive these updates. As a Turd Army regular, you get to see them, too. There is no one on the face of the planet more qualified to charge for precious metal commentary than Andy. As a 30-year veteran of London gold and silver trading, he has an extensive list of contacts and clients as well as a depth of knowledge and experience that is unmatched. If you want to know what is really going on, Andy will tell you every weekend when he posts his commentary.

Andy has granted me permission to copy-and-paste an excerpt from last weekend's commentary. Here he addresses the hubbub surrounding the "London Trader" story of June 8. ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/8_London_Trader_-_Staggering_515_Tons_of_Gold_Sold_in_4_Hours.html) This is the type of valuable information that members receive every weekend.

MetalsTrades Commentary - June 24th 2012
I will start by answering some excellent, member questions….
…“I came across this article yesterday, claiming the 515 metric tons dumped in the market place per "The London Trader", did not happen as they were unable to see it on the open interest. Would appreciate Andrew’s input and rebuttal.”
Regards…

This is a good question and considering COT inspired waterfall selloff events usually follow a similar pattern, it is worth taking the time to follow the footprints through this specific event. This dissection will be helpful for a lot of members as this is a common and very profitable ongoing COT, (Bullion Bank), MO and should help clear up a lot of confusion amongst market participants regarding the relationship between the Comex vs. the OTC spot and physical markets.
This blogger expresses a healthy skepticism, is well measured and rational but makes a few commonly held false assumptions that I will seek to address. I will start by pasting the relevant sections directly from the blog…
………”He does not define the term “paper gold” but we can assume he means either London gold Forwards or COMEX gold Futures. This seems to be confirmed by his remark that the anonymous “Eastern buyers” will “patiently convert” their “paper gold” to “physical in the coming weeks.” I assume this means that they will stand for delivery of their contracts”…..

My response to this is No. Sovereign, CB and physical buyers in size do not buy paper gold contracts on the Comex; this refers to spot indexing in the OTC spot market in London. This is a classic case of the Comex tail wagging the much larger spot dog. Due to both leverage and the timed deployment of established and verifiable concentrated short Bullion bank COT positioning in the Comex paper market, the price of bullion is concurrently set in the spot market. This by default enables those seeking allocation of physical in size to take advantage of the resulting discounted spot prices and lock in spot purchases on intraday/month dips in the size they wish to take delivery of at an upcoming fix. This spot indexing transaction is simply an FX currency trade where the purchaser of physical is going long gold and short USD/ EUR etc., locking in the price of gold vs. that currency. Once spot XAU/ USD, XAU/EUR etc. has been purchased, the currency price for the size of allocation sought is locked in no matter how high the price of gold may rise to on the date the spot currency purchase is cashed in for physical at a bullion bank, producer or refiner etc. at that chosen days gold fix price.
Then…...” I also assume that he is not referring to naked, leveraged longs that are forced to liquidate as the price falls, due to margin calls. He explicitly said it was “the bullion banks” doing the selling of these 515 metric tons.

Let’s look at the numbers. 515 metric tons equals 16,557,634.5 troy ounces. Rounding to the nearest 100-ounce COMEX contract, this adds up to 165,576 contracts. 165,576 new contracts were dumped onto the market on June 7, according to the London Gold Trader…...”

In response, here is where a walkthrough of the event would be helpful….1st to the bones of the discussion.


There were indeed 165,555 GCQ contracts sold during the 4 hours in question, as described in the MT post in real time on the day it occurred. The selling emanated from a bullion bank and was initially instigated in the pit about 1 hour ahead of Bernanke’s speech. Although one might expect some last minute squaring/positioning ahead of pivotal news it in not normal to see short selling/new supply commence in size so far ahead of such a price moving event. With initial selling stemming out of the pit in noticeably large tranches, and as reported to me by my contacts from a name associated with a large bullion bank, this also had the intended effect of telegraphing sell intent to the locals.

Even with that information set aside, what the blogger is missing here is that almost all these contracts were subsequently covered by the bullion bank into the days pit close thereby not showing up in the closing OI #.This is a standard MO. Through concentration, creating sufficient new supply at commonly watched pivots in a very short period of time to swamp any bids distorting true supply demand fundamentals, then once the momentum is turned down, to buy back all originating short positions into freshly pitched longs and a whole array of freshly invited new shorts.

Obviously, there is always a long for every short etc. but nevertheless the equivalent of 515 tons of paper gold was sold that would not have been sold had the bullion banks not used the power of their concentration to create sufficient supply to instigate and then game carefully orchestrated air pockets for the market to do the rest of the heavy lifting. This resulted in a stair step transference of COT shorts and was conducted at the expense of, (MM, spec’s and techs), initially by tripping longs stops, then drawing in fresh short supply on the breach of very obvious technical supports. (In this case with volume through the well watched 50 & 10 DMA’s).

These progressive breaches activated stair step knee jerk momentum selling and flipped the always present ‘neutral algo’s’, (as dissected in a prior MT commentary), over to a sell side bias. Guess who was on the other side of those trades profitably buying back the newly instigated supply? The daily downward move was then consolidated with a bearish close just below the 10DMA. (Bear in mind long or short stops are clearly visible to the 2 COT bullion banks identified in the OCC reports, concurrently holding the book on over 97% of all OTC gold and silver derivatives, a market 10 times the size of the Comex. These 2 COT banks also maintain concentrated short controlling positions in the futures markets).

Now, breaking down the footprints in more detail….

Preceding the pit selling, obvious spoofing was seen which given the signature footprints had to be from a COT algo and foreshadowed mal intent. If you recall from the MT post, we saw a very strong showing at the PM fix with large allocation sought in size, yet into the fix, we saw a block order of 10,000 GCQ contracts hitting all the bids for an $8 drop ahead of the fix followed by 35,000 contracts hitting all the bids for another $20 followed by a small $5 rise into the pit close where we saw large allocation sought at 1606. At this point, some short covering was seen, looking like a bottom likely drawing in some new longs, followed by another 30K selling tranche followed by the residuals over the remaining couple of hours. There was an obvious round off of short covering of around 50K seen into the pit close. This exercise resulted in an extremely profitable trade which also opened a window to repay/rebuy some previously underwater gold leases here in London. I am very close to the physical market here and am almost certain this was the case.

Obviously, aside from my observations and sources, I verified my information with both a trusted pit contact and traders here in London; also independently I saw this from an individual who I respect, Jesse, who appears to have concluded similar observations.
Jesse comments 08 June … “One has to consider information such as this as input to be compared to other things, since we cannot directly view what the unidentified source is specifically seeing.
However, having watched the tape in real time and looked at the changes in Open Interest, it seems to be a credible description of what happened.
It also tracks closely with my own view of the game which we are in…”


I hope my sharing this with you has been helpful.

Once again, if you are an experienced trader, I urge you to consider this service. The goal is to profit by trading along and against The Cartels and then convert each monthly gain into physical metal, thereby decreasing their available supply. If we only have a handful of members, the physical effect is negligible. However, if we can get a couple hundred folks working this program...well, then maybe we could have an impact. Regardless of that, in the end, members of The Army will be consistently adding to their stacks of physical, and there's certainly nothing wrong with that.

Have a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  301 Comments

  Refresh
vanjan
Jul 21, 2012 - 2:09am

Hi,  Could someone explain

Hi,

Could someone explain what an A/R pivot is and where it comes from, please?

Thanks

Jan Roos
Jul 2, 2012 - 1:44pm

Thanks

Thanks Bam, if the only money lost is the cost of the options then thats not too bad. As long as i wont have to raise money somewhere else to cover a trade gone bad.

Peaches Marie
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:33am

@Turd

They switched over for a few days in early June, but it was 'buggy' and Paul reverted to the old server. Finally, he switched over again a few days ago, and yes, it has shortened the lag considerably. But in a fast and thinly traded market like we've had the past few months, even 5 or 10 seconds (the time it takes to type 'I am buying one lot here" and for you to react according) allows the market to move against you significantly. And of course the ones that move "fast and furious" are the ones that you are more reluctant to chase and will score as -$0.00- gain/loss and Andy will book for above average gains. But if trading was easy, we'd all be rich! Cheers!

bamJan Roos
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:30am

@ Jan Roos

'trading options' is a huge subject that involves a ridiculous amount of complex strategies. Yes, you can lose a lot of money...but not with the particular transaction Dr J is talking about.

Buying a call option is a relatively simple transaction. At most you are out the cost of the call options. It's the guy on the other side of that trade above (the seller of the call option) who stands to lose a lot of money if silver went above $35.

IMO, given the relative tightness of the pricing structure, options greatest value lies in the ability to hedge other trading positions, and limit your downside risk.

rl999
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:08am

UK manfacturing contracts again, stimulus to come.

"The country fell back into recession around the turn of the year and a string of weak economic data has pointed to another quarter of contraction between April and June, putting pressure on the central bank and the government to boost growth.

The Markit/CIPS closely watched Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.6 last month from May's three-year low of 45.9, beating expectations for a more modest climb to 46.5. But it was still the second month below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction.

"These figures imply that manufacturing was a drag on overall growth in the second quarter and we expect GDP to decline for the third consecutive quarter," said Nida Ali, economist at Ernst & Young ITEM Club. "The Bank was already leaning heavily towards extending QE this week and these figures will provide further pressure," she added.

The Bank is expected to top up the 325 billion pounds of cash it has already pumped into markets with another 50 billion when it meets on Thursday as falling inflation gives it more scope to support the battered economy.

Britain's economy contracted 0.3 percent in the first three months of the year and having shrunk at the end of 2011 is deemed to be in recession.""

https://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/uk-poll-uk-factory-idUKBRE8610...

murphy
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:06am

new thread kids

new thread kids

Peaches Marie
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:05am

That's very helpful

Thank you.

I know that Andy and Paul have recently updated their servers in an attempt to cut down the "reaction time". Has this helped? Have you noticed any difference?

boatman
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:04am

years maybe....

but not 8........maybe 3 and probly 5

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Peaches MariePeaches Marie
Jul 2, 2012 - 10:02am

P.S.

Oh yes, before anyone mentions "experienced" traders, I have been trading metals and futures for more than 5 years and my trading account is well funded.

Peaches Marie
Jul 2, 2012 - 9:57am

@ Jack Daniels, and Turd's Army

I found nothing in any of Jack's posts that I could disagree with. Obviously Turd does not actually trade with Andy's Metals Trading Service. I do. I am also currently trading E-mini S&Ps, Russell 2000, Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Rice, Cocoa, Nat Gas and Crude. Not Silver at this time. Several Ag's stop trading at 1400 and 1415 EST., so I trade from 0200 - 1400 daily as a rule. Since Andy is trading generally from 0230 to 1230, I am able to catch the majority of his trades. But not his profits. Why? Darn'ed if I know, but it probably lies mostly in "slippage" and "transaction costs".

Until the last couple of days, there was a delay of several (ie 20-60) seconds from the time his trade went through until the time the alert sounded. I have never (except a couple of times on pullbacks) matched his entry prices. I would venture a guess that my entries were $0.30 to $0.50 away. That doesn't sound like much, except that probably 80% of Andy's trades, due to his tight stops, are stopped out. He records this as -$0.00- no gain/loss. Unfortunately, for me it is a loss of $30-$50 + commissions on each trade. There were several days that he was stopped 8-10 times.

For May his profits were $5590 and mine were $918 before subtracting the subscription fee. Seriously, when the alert sounded I bought or sold at the market as quickly as I could. In July, his profits were $7590 and mine were $2256, less $500 for the subscription. I'm not complaining, as I am profiting, but take the advertised performance data with several grains of salt. As a trader, you have to consider all costs (subscription fees, commissions and slippage).

I would like to hear how other actual members of Turd's Army are fareing. I'm sure many are doing better than me, as I do not have Pac Man fingers....

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9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
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9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
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9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
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9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
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9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
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8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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