On The Lookout, Part II

439
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 10:31am

When you eat, breathe and sleep your work, sometimes inspiration strikes you at the most odd of hours. Last night, I'm tossing and turning, trying to relax when the following pattern came to mind.

First, let's review a few things to insure that we are all on the same page. In Comex silver futures, there are five "delivery" months. These are the contracts that are the most actively traded because they are the contracts with the most volume and open interest (liquidity). These five contracts are considered "delivery" contracts because they are the ones through which holders most often take actual physical delivery of metal. Yes, the other months do see some delivery action but it is the months of March, May, July, September and December where the bulk of the physical settlement takes place.

If one desires to take delivery through The Comex, one must first buy a futures contract. Let's say you wanted your 5000 ounces of silver in March so you purchase a March12 contract. When you buy the contract, you only have to put up part of the money, this is your initial margin requirement. However, once the contract expires, The Comex will ask you to put up all of the money needed to purchase the silver. The date where "100% margin" is required is known as First Notice Day. It's a sort of put-up-or-shut-up type of thing. By late February, trading in the March contract will have ceased so The Comex wants you out of the contract. Only those with intent to take delivery are allowed to continue to hold it and all of them must have 100% of the cost of delivery in their respective brokerage accounts by First Notice Day.

It is on First Notice Day that we get some idea of how many contracts are standing for delivery. Recently, this number has been coming in anywhere between 2,000 and 4,000 contracts, or roughly 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 ounces of silver. OK, are you with me so far??

Here's the rather alarming trend that hit me late last night:

For the December11 contract, first notice day was November 30, 2011. Closing price that day of the March12 contract was 32.87. BY 12/29/11, the MARCH12 TRADED AS LOW AS 26.50. DOWN 19.38%.

For the March12 contract, first notice day was February 29, 2012. Closing price that day of the May12 contract was 34.70. (It was even higher at 37.26 on 2/28.) BY 3/22/12, THE MAY12 TRADED AS LOW AS 31.18. DOWN 16.32%.

For the May12 contract, first notice day was April 30, 2012. Closing price that day of the July12 contract was 31.01. BY 5/16/12, THE JULY12 TRADED AS LOW AS 26.73. DOWN 13.8%.

Graphically, it looks like this:

Uh-oh. Maybe now would be an excellent time to go back and read this post from last Saturday:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3940/lookout

As you know, yesterday was option expiration and the final trading day for the July12 contract. The action now shifts to the September12 contract. First Notice Day for the July12 contract is this Friday, the 29th. If things get a little dicey next week and into mid-July, don't say you weren't warned. That said, I firmly believe everything I put into the Saturday post referenced above. IF a washout through $26 materializes, please do not panic. Recognize it for what it is: The Closing Acts of The Silver Cartel. Once they are net flat or even net long, things are going to get very exciting around here.

Be patient. Think clearly. Be rational. Prepare accordingly.

TF

p.s. My intention is to update TurdTalksMetals with a new podcast, every day by 4:00 EDT. Today, there will likely be a bit of a delay, however. Thanks for your patience and thanks to all who are supporting the new venture.

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  439 Comments

  Refresh
recaptureamerica
Jun 28, 2012 - 9:03am

Hmmm...so a capital increase isn't a bailout...

Slovenia isn't considering a banking bailout at the moment after the country's biggest bank received a capital increase according to the Slovenian finance minister https://ransquawk.com/!#/headlines/232037 Gotta love the slick definitions they make up...

Byzantium
Jun 28, 2012 - 9:02am

To RaRa

I just found this on Wikipedia.... it's news to me.

"IT problems

In 2009, the Co-operative Bank received considerable public criticism from business customers for problems with the bank's internet banking service. It subsequently emerged that the service crashed when more than 130 users logged on simultaneously, and some customers were left unable to access their accounts for days. [11]

In 2011, some Co-operative Bank customers were left temporarily unable to use their debit cards as a result of IT problems. [12]

Press reports have suggested that the Financial Services Authority (FSA) may intervene to block the Co-operative Bank's proposed purchase of some Lloyds TSB branches, due to concerns about the Co-operative Bank's ability to integrate IT systems. It is rumoured that the FSA is particularly concerned that the Co-operative bank is still behind schedule in the integration of its IT systems with those of the Britannia Building Society, despite the fact that the merger took place in 2009. [13]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Co-operative_Bank

Be Prepared
Jun 28, 2012 - 9:01am
rl999
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:57am

@ NancyDrew

The same reaction I had, and a small discussion ensued (think on monday) about this very topic. Another member posted similar things.

Mickey
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:57am

Spin on Decision on Obamacare and PM

Lets say its rejected. No more Obamacare. Remember the plan was sold as a way to save money and reduce the looming huge deficit increases. So if its rejected PM "should" soar due to nothing in sight to reduce spending.

In reality there were few spending reductions and only spin gimmicks to make it look like the US would spend less money while adding 30 million to the insureds list.

Obamacares' unconstitutionality is only part of the problem. It was poorly written, poorly designed, filled with BS savings, added a ton of taxes to pay for it (when the increased taxes could have been assigned elsewhere) and rammed down the throats of congress and the people when the Dems had the majority in Congress.

In short, its everything we have come to expect out of a government that over the years has ammassed 16 trillion of funded debt and 100 trillion of unfunded debt.

And why we are in precious metals.

tmosley
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:55am

Does that mean the US just

Does that mean the US just stole all Russian accounts within the US? Is this an act of war?

Patrancus
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:54am

A Dachsund without

A Dachshund without a monocle? come on, get real

rl999
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:54am
NancyDrew
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:51am

@rl999

Still, this would have to have some sort of repercussions, wouldn't it? And, from what I've read, anytime a national emergency is declared, it opens up all kinds of other things that can be put in place. Perhaps my tin foil hat is too tight? But, it's difficult to tell what anything means these days.

silverstool
Jun 28, 2012 - 8:48am

A Leveson moment

Number 47. I hope it's a bit more than a Leveson moment, don't you? As far as I can tell, nobody has been convicted yet and I would be surprised to see either of the Murdoch's behind bars.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Forum Discussion

by SteveW, Jul 11, 2020 - 6:36pm
by SteveW, Jul 11, 2020 - 6:25pm
by TexasTonto, Jul 11, 2020 - 5:19pm
by ja1920voo, Jul 11, 2020 - 11:37am
by tork311, Jul 10, 2020 - 3:17pm
randomness