The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

Thu, Jun 21, 2012 - 12:02pm

With a tip of the hat to Tom Petty, here we are once again. Stuck, rangebound and waiting.

Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers - The Waiting

(Go ahead. You might as well listen to the music while you read, otherwise it will be stuck in your head all day.)

So, here we are. It's now June 21 and it's as if June 1 never happened. Do you remember that day? We were all excited. The Gold Cartel had allowed gold to trade past it's 2% daily cap and it climbed almost 4%, or $58, after the extremely lousy (even after the imaginary B/D adjustments) BLSBS data. At the time, it was easy to be excited. Maybe gold was breaking out? Maybe QE3 was right around the corner?

Maybe it was simply the long-awaited spec short squeeze that we had discussed here ad nauseam. And now, after squeezing the spec shorts three weeks ago, The Gold Cartel is hustling those same, brainless algos are right back into shed. Two weeks from tomorrow, the next BLSBS report comes out and, barring any unforeseen opportunities before then, the SSS (Spec Short Sheep) will once again be fleeced. Until then, we wait. (The picture in the left was taken on June 1 and it shows an SSS get worked over. The image on the right was taken yesterday and it shows an SLS getting the same treatment.)

At the end of the day, paper metal prices are still in the same ranges in which they've been held for over 7 weeks. Gold continues stuck in a $100 range, bounded by $1630 at the top and $1530 at the bottom. Expect this to continue for a while longer. Silver, too. It's simply bouncing around between $27 and $29 while JPM waits out option expiry next week. Note that on May silver option expiry, silver closed just above $30. It broke down through $30 the next week and has been pinned under that level for the entire time since.

Alright, just two other items for today. First up, this very interesting article from Detlev Schlichter. Turdite tabberto posted this link earlier and it merits your attention. Thanks, tabberto!

Second, maybe we can help a brother out. This author is a Turdite. He sent me a copy of his book and asked me to read it. I will, eventually, but I'm a little to busy right now to give it the attention it deserves. So, I'm suggesting it to you, sight unseen. Here's how he described it in an email to me:

"Given the popularity of fictional books in recent months such as The Hunger Games, and 50 Shades of Grey (alright... that's for the wives... but it's sort of like reading the other team's playbook, no?), I thought it would be timely to release a fictional novel that pushes the themes of sound money. The basic premise of my book, The Troy Standard, describes how a man comes to realize the value in gold / silver investing and how it morphs into an attempt to create a global, metals-backed currency, the obstacles he confronts, and the eventual results of maintaining the status quo."

So, what the heck? If you're looking for a little summer reading, maybe you can help this guy out by buying his book. Anyone who does so should be sure to report back with a review when finished.

That's all for now. Here's a little more TP to help get you through your day. TF

Tom Petty American Girl Live 1985 - (Best Version)

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Be Prepared · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:04pm


It's not the loneliest number.

Hard Rain · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:08pm

Pecking Order

This is the highest I have ever been in the posting pecking order. Let's hope I don't turn into a pecker.


murphy · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:09pm

I feel like a Thurd

I feel like a Thurd, sometimes I don't

Video unavailable
Istack · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:09pm



I'm gonna go add to my stack to celebrate!

i will forever remember this day as the day of first posting

rl999 · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:09pm


discounted metals and a top ten showing.

I'd like to thank my sponsors, the academy...

On a serious note tho, kitco shows the low of the day as 26.89, but there charts don't show anything below 27.38, neither does the other live ticker at pennystockjournal. what gives?

survivalwstyle · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:09pm

go forth

and visit your LCS today. take phyZZ home and bury it.

Adman · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:13pm

Can the mods ban???????????

This "first", "second", "thurd" crap? Seriously, is it nothing more than a bunch of children that read this blog? What is the point of this stupidity?

Louis Winthorpe III · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:16pm


I'm OK with the current Au & Ag prices. I'd rather stack at $27-$29 and $1530-$1630 then at higher prices. I hope to go back to earn my PHD. ( Pile it Higher & Deeper).


Looking good Billy Ray !

Chris P. Bacon · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:18pm


Are you new to the forum? I'm not taking sides, just advising that this is a path well traveled. It is what it is.

[Edit] If you are new, then welcome!

Louis Winthorpe III Adman · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:19pm

Sounds like somebody is jealous!

Sounds like somebody is jealous!

· Jun 21, 2012 - 12:19pm

As someone who went short yesterday

Pre- Fed, I just wanted to say BTFD. This is looking like a very nice entry point- I closed my shorts and am building a long position here. Buy some now, some at 27, and even more at 26.50. Always keep some dry powder. Even if your timeframe is the next 2-3 months, this sure is an attractive opportunity.

QE to infinity · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:21pm

Have a look at

Have a look at this:

Might be better to wait just a bit longer before buying.

Fired · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:21pm

Looks like it touched the box

Looks like it touched the box and bounced off it. Not expecting much until options expiration next week.

Stoxxman · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:21pm

Friday on my Mind

Forget today. Pffft no

The Easybeats - Friday On My Mind
Gunrunner · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:22pm

Maybe I should have waited

Yesterday when silver dropped below 28.00 I couldn't help myself and made my move. Now look at today, looking at going below 27.00. My finger nails are about gone and my ears are ringing from grinding my teeth.

What to do. What to do.

Stock_Canines · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:24pm

If The Only Thing that Can Move the Metals

Is Overt QE, or some black swan headline that may or may not appear, what makes anyone think that gold and silver will do much until after the election? I don't see them announcing QE with the markets near there 4 year high. Don't we need the sheeple to be begging for QE before they will overtly announce it? I guess based on Turd's post today, if you still want to stack, do so only at the bottom of the trading range, since I imagine we will have ample opportunity to buy at those levels over the next several months. All I read about on these PM sites is "c'mon QE". We all beg for blatant fiat dilutive headlines as the key to our stacks increasing in price/value. Is there any hope of our stacks increasing value sans QE? What if overt qe is off the table for good? What does that imply about the future price of the metals? I have no idea, I am just throwing these thoughts to the wind.

onealpha · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:24pm

Convictions are harder to

Convictions are harder to keep when self doubt creeps its way into your mind. That is when you have to reconfirm the reasons for your original convictions when you first purchased. 

I was going to sell some back when we bounced back and hit $37 and purchase some gold with it on the pullback that I thought was coming. I had some 90% and some miscellaneous stuff that I was going to cull from my stash. I went to my three local buyers and was really shocked how little they were willing to buy my 90% for. Two of them offered me 18x and 20x and the third offered me 22x. i suppose that the first two were expecting the same pullback, but the third has always been the most fair with me. He actually talked me out of selling my 90% at that time as he felt the 90% was undervalued by dealers and as it gets melted off it would become more appealing to dealers and collectors. Anyhow, what shocked me was how low the offers were. The melt value was 26.5x and the best offer was 22x. I had never tried to sell 90% before but that was an eye opener for me. I had over $100 face in 90% and mostly quarters. All of these dealers would pay spot to -$1 for SAE's as I asked them at the time. That was when I decided to stick to SAE's when buying quantity or if I did buy 90% to only buy it at below melt. 

Don't take my word for it. Take 14 90% dimes (equal to 1 troy oz) and one SAE to your dealers and try to sell them both. See what they will pay. Then take that into consideration before purchasing. Fortunately, I bought most of my 90% at 10x so those old purchases don't hurt me if I sell, but going forward I will stick with SAE's when buying bulk. The sentiment that I got from all of the dealers is that they really didn't want my stinky 90% but they were happy to pay me spot for Engelhard bars and SAE's.

Just something to consider before you buy.

Double Bogey · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:28pm

Keep on chewing

Today is one of those feel good days. I added a couple of tubes of ASE, a couple of tubes of Phils, and a few 10 oz stackers. Also 5 boxes of brass and lead. If I would have waited 20 minutes, I could have saved $80, almost 3 extra ounces. Maybe if I waited another day, I might have saved another $200. Maybe not. My hand has healed from catching a falling knife before.

I'm not smart enough to call a bottom. I'm sure not smart enough to understand ALL of the financial crisis occurring around us. And I'm definitely not smart enough to rationalize why Au and Ag buddies are at these levels given the chaos we're living in. I AM smart enough to read the Turd and may of the intelligent posters on this blog and remain convinced that I won't care if I paid $40, $30, $20, or $10 an ounce someday. I can't imagine ever thinking I shouldn't have bought so much silver under $30.

Do you see 50% plus gains in equities or real estate in the next 12 months? Me neither. 50% in Ag only brings us back to $39. I believe that will happen in the next 12 months. Maybe even by late fall. 50% gain from $26 is better than from $27.20, but I can live with that.

Keep on stacking, and feed the Turd!

Side note: I received a notice of insufficient funds from my bank today. I called them up and asked them when they might have enough. They didn't think that was funny, but they did admit a bank error.

RunRunRun Gunrunner · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:28pm

stay strong

Posted at end of last thread but thought it could use a little more mileage on this thread if anyone was feeling the waterfall blues...

"Frankly, I don't give a flying F by all this volatility (as long as I'm on the right side of the fundamentals and I'm in it for the long term)." - good one, delta charlie. I'm coming with you all the way. 

We were warned about volatility, and here it is folks. Get used to it, it's going to get wilder.

But remember - volatility is not risk it is opportunity.

No need for gnashing of teeth. The only risk is your own spirit fading, if you buckle and sell up down here. What you need to do is accumulate down here, and keep some cash back in case we go down another leg. Could happen, in which case great news for anyone with the cojones to btfd, because simple maths will win in the end, and fiat currencies will crumble while gold and silver shine. 

Be patient. Stack on.

Stock_Canines · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:28pm

Hang in there

"Is there any hope of our stacks increasing value sans QE?"

Yes, there is. Just be patient. It's going to be a fun summer.

opticsguy · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:28pm

TP's best song

NOT their best video. Still don't get it.

Patrancus · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:29pm

The love of the "goods"

The love of the "goods" is a love worth waiting on

Bouke - A love worth waiting for
Dagney Taggart rl999 · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:31pm

Ataris are getting faster


It probably took the ataris 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 seconds to flash 26.89 and return to 27.10.

Pretty soon we humanoids will not be able to trade the digital markets.

justin99975 · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:32pm

what to do?

do i buy now??? Or is it gonna keep dropping??? 

made it in the top ten! my best so far! smiley

SV · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:32pm

Forget Work!

Forget Work! Let's go out and cause a raucous!!! 

How was that for a dip! Nice and chilly down here around $26....

Grey Mare · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:32pm

But it won't be so funny when its real

For now, I'm LMAO.

@Double Bogey Bank with Insufficient Funds

murphy Adman · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:32pm


It's a tradition.... like gold.

Ron Paul : Why do central banks hold Gold? Bernanke : Tradition
Fired · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:33pm

HUI retesting the 50day SMA.

HUI retesting the 50day SMA. Maybe the pain will subside soon.

tobydaniel · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:33pm

Waiting is the hardest part?

You mean waiting to get fleeced again is the hardest part:) So are we going to have another contest on when we pass FB again? Seems to have kicked silver in the nads for the time being. My guess is January 1 2013. 

John Galt · Jun 21, 2012 - 12:34pm

Waiting, Indeed

After years of riding through false starts and dashed hopes regarding PM prices that are supposed to be "exploding" higher "any time now" I have truly resigned myself to the belief that the REAL move higher will likely be a good 3 years away, possibly coinciding with Martin Armstrong's expectation of a waterfall collapse of paper currency sometime in late 2015. (Although even then, in the event of a full collapse of paper currency, the "worth" of PMs in paper terms will be a useless exercise anyway).

Nevertheless, for me to make this prediction means one of 2 things will happen:

1. Either the big move up happens before that (which means I'll be wrong with my prediction, but pleasantly surprised with the unexpected rise in the value of my stack);


2. I'll be right, and I won't have spent years agonizing fruitlessly over the day to day machinations of these so called markets;

While it's disheartening to see the PMs getting slammed yet again today, I can only roll my eyes, shake my head and go outside to work in my garden.

At least there I can see my efforts yielding some tangible (and tasty) results.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by atarangi, 1 min 9 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 2 hours 10 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 2 hours 25 min ago
by scoremore, 2 hours 39 min ago