Net-Net Nothing

222
Wed, Jun 20, 2012 - 4:32pm

Does anyone else find this slightly amusing?

All of the hand-wringing and angst brought about by the FOMC meeting turned out to be wasted energy. Oh, there are several, interesting nuggets you need to consider but let's look at the gold price action first.

Heading into the Fedlines at 12:30 EDT, we were all wondering what was going to happen to gold (and silver) prices. Would they rise on some kind of QE announcement? Would they fall as they have nearly every time The Bernank has spoken in 2012? The answer to both is: Yes! And that's the funny part.

You've now read countless entries of mine where I've lamented the utter lack of participation in the metals pits, post MFing Global. The only entities left trading are Cartel monkeys and HFT algos. Because of this, we are stuck in an environment where The Cartel can very efficiently "game" the mindless spec computers. We saw this done again today.

Again the pattern for 2012 has been: When The Bernank talks, the metals get sold and the specs (both long and short) get fleeced. Usually, this plays out over a few days. Today, this played out over a few hours. It went like this:

  • When the Fedlines hit the wires, gold was $1606. Over the next 6 or 7 minutes, it was hit for $15 and fell to $1591. Spec longs were crushed as their sell stops were hit.
  • For the next 90 minutes, gold rallied $30 from $1591 to $1621. Spec shorts were crushed as their buy stops were hit, especially in one, joyous 4-minute interval were gold jumped over $15.
  • Then The Bernank took the podium and began speaking. What happened? Well, of course gold was hit for $15 and fell from $1621 back to $1606 over the next 45 minutes.
  • And thus the title of today's blog entry. The net result is NOTHING. The only ones making any money continue to be The Cartel. Spec long = LOSER. Spec short = LOSER. The non-event of the Fed non-announcement is simply used as cover for The Gold Cartel to game price back and forth, thereby lining their pockets (and increasing their bonus pools) at the expense of the dumb money.

    Continuing with the theme of "Net-Net Nothing", today's fun-and-games had ZERO IMPACT on the face of the charts. Gold and silver continue to be rangebound. Silver is particularly quiet and this will likely continue. The lack of volatility is bleeding premium from the July options and you almost have to expect this to continue through option expiry next week. Absent some unforeseen headlines, gold will likely remain below for a few more days, as well.

    Back to The Fed. What did they actually say today? It wasn't as bland as LIESman would have you believe.

    • They confirmed that they will maintain "extraordinarily low interest rates (ZIRP) through 2014". Why doesn't anyone ever talk about this? That's two and a half years from now! A minimum of 2.5 more years of negative, real interest rates! And how can they claim that, suddenly, beginning in 2015, things will get better and rates will go up? That's preposterous! No one can tell you what will happen next week, let alone 3 years from now but everyone just brushes aside the "ZIRP to 2015" stuff like it's nothing.
    • They also lowered their 2012 GDP forecast (which they just made in April) from 2.65% to 2.15%. That's a 20% drop in expectations over the past 60 days. What changed?
    • They also stated that they expect the BLSBS numbers to stay right here at 8.1 to 8.2%. This is also a change for the worse since April. Again, what has changed?

    Additionally, the next FOMC meeting is 7/31-8/1 so we get to go through all of this again in just 6 short weeks. Hooray! But seriously, that meeting will be interesting. Besides having the June BLSBS data to consider, they'll also have the July data as it will be due to be made public on 8/3. Again, the next FOMC meeting will be the one to watch. Until then...well, we'll see.

    Just a couple of other things for you. Two of our pals have released new articles over the past 24 hours. Jim Quinn hits us with a two-parter:

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=35850 & https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=36196

    and Mike Krieger uncovered this very interesting video from one of our Esteemed Leader's former allies. Pretty interesting stuff. ( https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/06/19/harvard-law-professor-demolishes-obama/) Here's the actual video. Dude blasts Obama pretty hard and he's a Democrat! Pretty funny.

    Robert Mangabeira Unger - "Beyond Obama"

    About the Author

    Founder
    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      222 Comments

    bellyacre
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:33pm

    FIRST

    Numero Uno

    tpbeta
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:34pm

    Second

    well goddam. That's what you get for reading the article first

    proformatrillionaire
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:42pm

    First?

    Not this time. Turd, any chance that a trading novice could get into the Turd army or have a broker execute the trades/manage the account for me?

    A1Topgun
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:45pm

    Federal Reserve Charter

    Doesn't the Federal Reserve Charter come to an end next year in December?

    Can we kill the monster before then?

    OK, FOURTH!

    SilverFocker
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:53pm

    Maybe no Fed QE today

    and that is a good thing. Yet, the not talked about coming QE will be here soon enough in the form of more debt brought too you by the ass clowns on the hill.

    The Fed knows that to maintain status quo, they could not QE until after the election because the debt ceiling will once again be breached beforehand............add this Trillion or so on top of any QE and the dollar goes boom and inflation get's outa hand real quick.

    So don't fret, QE is coming, it will just be in another form...........What happens after that pertaining to the looming tax debacle will be another story as much as who Oromney will put at the helm of the Fed, which may mean that QE in the "formal meaning" has played out at least for a time.

    TD
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:54pm

    Top Ten!

    I know it's nothing huge... but this is the first time I made it in the first ten postings! Number 1 here I come!

    tburk
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:57pm

    Why?

    It would seem to me that the supposed losers in this "rigged" game would wake up and refuse to play. If they are being fleeced day in and day out (which they may indeed be) why would they continue? I sense that most of us are sitting on the sidelines and just watching this meaningless back and forth movement; waiting for something "real" to happen. It is also odd to me that I feel no pain in the reduction of value in my physical stack. Stocks feel differently somehow. What a wierd thing is the human mind (or mine, at any rate).

    madcow
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:59pm

    nine hooooooooooo!

    ok ill play that game 9?

    waxybilldupp
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:59pm

    Productivity UP!

    Not so sure about they FED data, but productivity is up at the Dupp estate. I got so bored with the whole FED exercise in mental masturbation, I went outside and picked about 3 lbs. of cherries. I see something tasty in my very near future. 

    Whatever Mrs. Waxy comes up with, it should go well with the batch of lazy-man ribs I started. Just cut a rack of ribs into individual pieces, drop them in a crock-pot with 2 bottles of beer. Set on HIGH for 3 hours. Then, dump the beer and fat and add a bottle of Sweet Baby Ray's Honey Barbeque sauce seasoned with Montreal steak seasoning. Cook for another hour or two. Serve with sweet corn and a cherry tart of some kind.

    Dang, do I ever feel productive!

    The whole build-up to today's FED meeting was about as over-the-top as I have seen in quite a while. Probably just a warm-up for the July meeting. I think I need to schedule a fishing trip for that week so I don't get sucked in again. The result was about as I expected, but I feel like a dope for actually having CNBS on for hours today. Whatever happens the end of July isn't going to change anything for me anyway. PMs up, down or sideways, my stash is not going to be a "market participant" anytime soon.

    wax off

    edit: Wow! Read the new thread info, posted and still landed on fifth! Where the hell is everybody? Still digesting those deep thoughts presented by The Bernank? I did have to chuckle a few times when his voice started to quiver while answering a question. Probably momentarily distracted by the light glaring off of LIESman's shiny head.

    bam
    Jun 20, 2012 - 4:59pm

    And the result of the day's action....

    ...is a collective fart and sigh. No turd in sight.

    ancientmoney
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:16pm

    repost from tail-end of previous thread

    Silver is the best possible investment there is when considering risk/reward potential. I'm talking physical. Anything else is paper, and all bets are off.

    Butler has pounded the silver manipulators (CME, COMEX, CFTC, JPM, etc.) for 25 years or so, to little avail. Until very recently (last week), he proclaimed that he didn't know the government was in cahoots with the manipulators of silver.

    The manipulators manipulate for one primary reason--they DO NOT WANT YOU, YOUR KIDS, OR ANY OTHER NON-ELITE PERSON BUYING REAL SILVER.

    Silver is a small market with few investors. It is easy for the big banks (JPM) with the deepest pockets in the universe (connected via feeding tube to the Fed) to run roughshod over the paper longs on COMEX, LBMA, etc. This too, shall end.

    Buy physical silver, and tell everyone you care about to do the same. Whatever they can afford. My opinion.

    rtabit
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:35pm

    SI 240 Repost

    240 minute uptrending fork. Fork is working well, problem is we're getting lower lows, potential bullish spike down.

    https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/ecf421ea-a933-4381-8341-5433f3d31681

    Same chart with downtrending fork. This fork is getting higher highs and higher lows. That spike down looks to be a double tap from previous spike.

    https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/97764ca9-769c-422f-a2ca-405795f34fb3

    All together. I'd say at worst we bounce along bottom most blue line until we intersect with top most red line. If we fall below last blue line again we're in trouble, that would indicate red fork is in charge. Personally I think we blow through first resistance and hit second around 29.40 before close Friday (I hope anyway).

    https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/eeb1369b-f1b8-4cfa-b9f3-d502f201afa1

    Two Gun Tobin
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:36pm

    Sierra Placer Gold

    Penny weight gold 005I buy my silver at the local coin shops when its on sale... but I collect my gold the old fashioned way.. Placer Mining!

    Stock_Canines
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:37pm

    Turd - Explosive Summer

    Do you still think it will be an explosive summer for metals or are you now thinking they will probably trade sideways at least until August meeting and perhaps into fall? I am trying to decide if I should deploy capital now or piecemeal it over the next few months. If there are reasons to believe the summer will be explosive, I will probably allocate more capital sooner rather than later. Thanks. 

    TitanAe
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:38pm

    help ??

    How do I post a pic I took ????

    murphy
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:43pm

    @ Titan

    I post from yfrog. Good luck.

    You have to post from a web addressable source - your computer desktop is protected from other computers sight so the drag/drop only works on your computer before posting and not from the web once posted (make sense?)

    Set up a photo share account (top 5 options)

    Post to your photo share and then drag and drop your published photo from the free photo site to your post =]

    SRSrocco
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:52pm

    I SMELL A RAT...

    LOOKS LIKE BLANK OF AMERICA IS HEADED FOR TROUBLE

    Bank of America Corporation $ 8.14
    BAC  0.03
    Daily Short Sale Volume - NEW view
    Short Interest (Shares Short) 263,184,400
    Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.3
    Short Percent of Float view
    Naked Short Selling List - NEW view
    Short Interest - Prior 150,700,800
    Short % Increase / Decrease 74.64

    Looks like BLANK OF AMERICA just got a huge increase in the SHORT POSITIONS. All the BANKS are getting increases in short positions since last year... but BAC is by far the worst.

    Citigroup Incorporated $ 28.86
    0.36
    Daily Short Sale Volume - NEW view
    Short Interest (Shares Short) 57,140,600
    Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.3
    Short Percent of Float view
    Naked Short Selling List - NEW view
    Short Interest - Prior 35,543,900
    Short % Increase / Decrease 60.76
    tburk
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:55pm

    Mainly because they actually

    Mainly because they actually think that the gold market is "fair" and "free". It is nothing of the sort.

    Xeno
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:55pm

    OPEN SEASON

    That's it, I'm callin' open season, you know the names.

    Gonna be a fun trip, Chicago, NY, London, Boston, DC... wait, make that AC/DC

    AC/DC - Gone Shooting / Gone Shootin'
    Stock_Canines
    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:55pm

    Yes

    and summer starts tomorrow.


    Jun 20, 2012 - 5:58pm
    Mickey
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:00pm

    For Consideration

    I read this somewhere: perhaps here.

    For whatever reason the Big Banks do not want Obama for President next term and thus are not out to stimulate the economy so Obama loses support and has little or nothing to run on (except of course blaming others which he is very good at) . Thus nothing big from Fed. We know parts of the Dem party are less than enthused about Obama (ie Clinton who probably played ball well with the banks) and it appears the bigger $ contributions from banks are going to Romney.

    So whats the game plan-let the economy continue tanking to get rid of Obama-seems crazy--but maybe not so crazy.

    Practically speaking QE or whatever might have immediate effect on markets but not economy-it does take several months for the effect to work thru economy. And even if QE 3 or 4 was put on table today--don't we have a debt ceiling problem anyway? (Fed cannot buy all that much because the Treasury cannot issue all that much without debt ceiling being increased).

    It would be nice to get into the next phase already. The way this is going it could take a few decades. Lets just get it over with (be careful what you wish for) and end the chinese water torture.

    bam murphy
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:01pm

    @ Titan Murph

    or you could just throw your photo up on https://imgur.com/.

    No account needed and direct links to pics.

    Groaner
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:07pm

    Yup, all this childish nonsense makes you want to

    blow your lunch.

    Oil down to almost $80 a barrel.. Is it my imagination or should this not help out the profits for the miners?


    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:10pm

    On Sextons and Placer mining

    Captain,

    Did you know that sextons were also in charge of the graveyards? Hmmmm.... Perhaps the churchyard of dead traders who blew their accounts trying to game the cartel.

    TwoGunTobin --nice results. I have a dream to start placer mining also. I have a spot all picked out waiting for me to file an good old-fashioned mining claim and start working the creek below 4 gold mines. Gonna have to wait a year though. Everyone has to dream.

    ¤
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:15pm

    August

    I'm going to guess that the beginning of August/late July also brings some debt ceiling and downgrade talk back on the table for the US.

    SWIFT, Syria and the ESM are the other items I think that will heat things up during July.

    Thanks for the post

    foggyroad
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:22pm
    Lanikai
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:24pm

    From Turd's post

    of law professor Roberto Unger on Obama:

    "he has delivered the politics of democracy to the rule of money; he has reduced justice to charity."

    He wants the democrats to lose so true progressive causes can be renewed. This would be an end of the status quo political machine of both parties and their control by money, wall street, corporate elite.

    foggyroad
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:30pm
    Wizard
    Jun 20, 2012 - 6:39pm

    Thank You Blythe and Monkeys

    Went out and grabbed some more physical today. It was a shame one of the saddle bags of the motorcycle was missing when I arrived home. Just happened to be the one with the Silver in it. DARN IT.

    Anything below 50 an Oz. is a pure gift,

    Anything below 30 an Oz. is Christmas.

    Please enjoy this wonderful Holiday Season

    W

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