Will Tuesday Be Terrible or Happy?

Mon, Jun 18, 2012 - 5:27pm

Hard to say. Since last Tuesday, silver is relatively unchanged in price and in OI. Gold is up a little in price but OI is up 2%. Chances are that the caps at 1630 and 29 will stay in place, at least for another day. However, since Wednesday is another "Fed Day", we must be vigilant.

Wednesday is, quite obviously, the BIG day for this week. The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow but we won't get anything out of them until a "statement" at 12:30 EDT on Wednesday. For tomorrow, we almost have to be counter-intuitive.

Recall that recently, any formal Fed statement has been met with serious, paper selling. The past several of these beatdowns were preceded by strong UP days the day before as the brainless, momentum-chasing algos were sucked in only to get blown back out by The Cartel the next day. If we get a strong move tomorrow, one where gold finally blows through 1630 and heads toward 1640 and silver breaks through 29, we must expect that its a coordinated headfake by The Cartel.

Look at these charts. For all intents and purposes, gold has been held between 1610 and 1630 for over two weeks. Silver has been held between 28 and 29 for seven, straight days. What a great opportunity, once again, for The Cartels to allow a break out of these patterns. They stand down tomorrow, leak a few QE rumors and let gold break out and suck in some spec longs, just as they did on 6/6. That way, if they're able to drop the hammer post Fed statement on Wednesday, there will be plenty of spec selling to fuel the beatdown. We'll see.

Just a couple of other items today. First, Jeff Nielson has another interesting article for you:


Patrick Heller has something thought-provoking, too:


And this is fun...Some M&A in the mining sector! Whoopee! Every little bit helps!


Sorry for the short update but that's all I have for now. Watch the metals closely tonight and DO NOT allow yourself to be faked out IF the metals suddenly spring forward through 1630 and 29. You what they say: "Fool me once, shame on The Cartel. Fool me over and over and I might have to seriously think about reprogramming some of my algorithms".


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Key Economic Events Week of 6/21

6/21 9:45 ET Goons Bullard and Kaplan
6/22 2:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/24 9:30 ET Durable Goods
6/24 9:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/24 9:30 ET Goons Bostic and Harker
6/24 11:00 ET Goon Williams
6/24 1:00 ET Goon Bullard again
6/25 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
6/25 8:30 ET Core PCE
6/25 10:00 ET UMich Consumer Sentiment

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