The Games Continue - 1630 & 29

Fri, Jun 15, 2012 - 11:21am

As we await what could be an historic weekend, we might as well take some time to look at the current state of the paper metal markets. In a stunning development, prices appear to be capped.

First of all, we have to address what happened this morning. Even ZeroHedge, which for whatever reason attempts to completely ignore metal price manipulation, got in on the act this morning. ( In this instance, they are correct about the "stop hunt" but the bigger news (which isn't mentioned) is "whom" is doing the hunting and, even more suspiciously, the timing of it all.

Take a look at the chart below. Note that the $10 spike UP occurred at 8:26 EDT. At exactly 8:30 EDT, the NY Fed released a completely dreadful "Empire State Manufacturing Index" update. ( If we were to assign rationale for a $10 spike to the "disappointing" economic number, shouldn't the spike have occurred at 8:30 or 8:31? Hmmm? Nope, As you can plainly see, the spike occurred at 8:26.

Now, we could probably spend all day asking questions like:

  • Was the data "news" leaked?
  • Were the trades executed by a stop-trolling spec algo or a stop-trolling Cartel algo?
  • Was it all pre-designed to act exactly at 8:30, using the headlines as "cover"? And did someone just get antsy and/or program the trade to begin prematurely?

Of course, well never know. The CFTC couldn't give a rat's ass about things like this. They're too busy planning parties where they spend the money saved by Gensler and Chilton never seeing a barber. Regardless, all of this is simply today's "Exhibit A" of the total farce which the paper metal markets have become.

So, anyway, back to 1630 and 29. Take a look at the chart above and you'll see something else: Another foray above $1630 that was quickly beaten back. Why is $1630 so special. Well, I could cite a number of reasons but let's stick to the charts. First, I lifted the chart below from Trader Dan. (Dan doesn't get to post much but that doesn't mean you shouldn't still be checking his site daily

Note the horizontal and diagonal resistance around 1630. You can also see The Cartel capping action on this chart:

The effort to keep silver below $29 is even more obvious and...odd. Seriously, why $29? What makes $29 so important to JPM? (Since we know from the latest CFTC data that JPM is the only firm shorting at this point, it is logical to deduce that JPM is the party capping price at $29.) July12 silver options expire on June 26. That's still 7 trading days away and $29 is an odd number to defend for that sake. There's far more known option open interest at $30 than there is at $29. Maybe you think I'm crazy. Maybe you think I'm seeing things. Maybe you should have a look for yourself.

At any rate, price is clearly being held below $1630 and $29 and I sure don't expect that to change over the remainder of the day. There might be some fluctuation but why on earth would anyone be willing to gamble by taking a large position at this point. It's much safer to lay low, watch the headlines and get ready for Monday.

As you all know, the Greek elections are Sunday. Regardless of the outcome, we can expect fireworks when everything re-opens Sunday night. And do not overlook the Egyptian elections which are also this weekend. Boyohboy, if you want to talk about long-term, Middle Eastern geo-political ramifications, look no farther than the Egyptian elections.

In the time it has taken me to type this, I see that another foray above $1630 has been beaten back. That's pretty funny. Again....what a complete joke the paper metal markets are. However, that should not stop you from buying even more physical metal. I am still expecting a hot, explosive summer for gold and silver prices. Physical demand is extraordinarily strong and events are swirling that will change forever the dynamic of how gold and silver are priced. Be patient and continue stacking.

Have a great weekend but be prepared for a very wild and volatile week ahead.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 17, 2012 - 10:25am

Apparently the U.S. and Egypt are more alike than we know...

...quote from an article about their election.


"Both are useless but we must choose one of them unfortunately," said Hassan el-Shafie, 33, in Mansoura, north of Cairo...

Dr G Island Teal
Jun 17, 2012 - 10:27am

A great article from the AP

A great article from the AP about Greece and how it affects the world. Simple and well-written. A wonderful one to pass on to family and friends--those that don't understand why Greece or the Euro matters.

Link is here

Jun 17, 2012 - 10:45am

Greeks baring votes

Any idea when polls close? Almost 6pm in Athens currently.

Dr G Island Teal
Jun 17, 2012 - 10:47am

I believe that short term, we

I believe that short term, we are going to see some of the lowest paper prices for metals that we've seen in a long time. We must watch the USD for strength as the Euro fiasco progresses. If Greece leaves the EZ, the price of the metals will plunge near-term. That's a huge buying opportunity because long-term they will reverse and clear former highs.

Greece election will also set the stage for then FOMC meeting and formal QE.

Dr G
Jun 17, 2012 - 10:49am

Polls close at noon Eastern

Polls close at noon Eastern time in the US. Projections at 2:30 and then every couple of hours with results at 1am Eastern in the US.

Jun 17, 2012 - 10:54am

Greek results - when:

Voting begins 04:00 GMT (07:00 local time) Voting ends 16:00 GMT with exit polls released immediately afterwards First official results expected after 18:30 GMT

Jun 17, 2012 - 10:56am

@Strat-j - always feel

@Strat-j - always feel obligated to respond to your posts. Simply put - Yes, that's a reasonable prediction. "Paper over" the problem no matter what the problem is.

Jun 17, 2012 - 10:57am

I attended the international

I attended the international franchise expo in NY over the weekend and gleaned a few things that may be of interest to some Turdites regarding their 401k. It its possible to do a 401k conversion, and use your money tax and penalty free. For those holding stocks and bonds, it is possible to use them as security for a SBA - small business association loan, (while still receiving the dividends). Currently attending seminars, will update if there is any interest in this topic. (If I had a 401k I would look into starting my own business..numismatic coins/pm's, long term survival food, outdoor equipment, etc. If it sells, great. If it doesn't I guess i'm "stuck"with the product. Darn.) sent from phone, please excuse errors.

Jun 17, 2012 - 11:02am

Great article from the AP

Good find Dr. G. Even the AP does something right once in a while.

One thing I find interesting is the number of articles, as in this one, that make the comment that Greece will default on their loans if they leave the Euro. They never explain how they will pay the loans if they stay in the Euro. I guess they can't find the words to explain the unexplainable.

Jun 17, 2012 - 11:07am

BIG things to worry about ...

but very low probability of a direct hit -

For those of you who like to keep up with the massive things in the physical realm that can take the whole planet out in addition to the puny things humans can do to make life difficult, here's your morning astronomical weather -

Jun 17, 2012 - 11:09am

re contagion or not

Propping up the euro will not stop contagion for more than a week. The paint isn't even dry on Spain (promises but no actual funding), and everyone is beginning to stare at Italy. Greece is just a harbinger. Italy is the Eurozone's third largest economy, I do believe, and it is in severe difficulties. Maybe it is all smoke and mirrors, but banks and governments everywhere have contingency plans if Greece does exit the euro, and the fear of contagion has been brought up by many bankers, economists and journalists (I think I just left a large hole in my argument). Is it just to keep us scared? Not this time - this is serious shit, and the people who are constantly being told to prop up the Euro don't have any money. There is serious disagreement even over the terms of the fictional money that is to be produced, and now arguments about deals made in the past that were not so generous. What can they offer Greece - more pain. What can they offer Italy? - you too can be Greece. But they can't legally lend money from one of their funds because Italy, which has a very bad credit rating, would have to borrow money at 6 or 7% so they could lend it to Spain at 3% - and this would (thank god) be seen as a problem. And then maybe Spain could lend Italy some money too, just for fun. Banks will be nationalized, that is almost guaranteed, and western banks have huge exposure to eurozone debt.

Maybe the contagion will be prevented by massive money printing over here too, but there is a serious liquidity problem out there, and nobody can find any more WD40.

Jun 17, 2012 - 11:11am

And from the biosphere -

These moochers are allowed to be a collectivist society. The rest of California needs to get its head on straight.

Vernon Wormer
Jun 17, 2012 - 11:36am

Happy father's day

Warm wishes to all of the fathers. Here's to another year of caring for our families.

Jun 17, 2012 - 12:13pm

First poll in Greece


17.02 The first exit poll is out, and it is far too close to call, with just half a percent gap:

New Democracy 27.5pc to 30.5pc

Syriza 27pc to 30pc

17.01 And that's it: polls are closed in Greece.

First exit polls from Greek state TV show it is neck and neck. With 75pc of polling stations accounted for, New Democracy is forecast to win between 27.5pc and 30.5pc, and Syriza 27pc to 30pc. In other words, this a cliffhanger that could drag into the wee hours.

Pasok is third with between 10pc and 12pc, the neo-fascist Golden Dawn will definitely sit in parliament for the first time with 6pc-7.5pc. Democratic Left of Fotis Kouvelis is on 5.5pc-6.5pc and the Communist Party vote has sunk even further to 5pc-6pc.

Larry Turdle GG
Jun 17, 2012 - 1:03pm

Back @ Turdle GG

Sorry to have let so much time lapse to reply. Absolutely Jim is annoyed. I'd be annoyed too if I had his money! I'm quite a bit more than that... more like fed up beyond keeping silent. But I realize that the 'system' will long outlast my outrage, yet if people that are being robbed begin to make it known and heard in as wide a circle as they can, a difference can be made. I've been in this for a while and have seen much.

While hating the crimes I've watched and waited. Tried to buy on big dips. Now I've reached my own personal threshold of disgust and will do what I can. What I won't do is get overly emotional (other than fleeting moments) and I won't beat my head against a brick wall. If the front doors of media aren't open, I'll use a side/local door. If enough people put their mouths where their money is (or was), a small voice could become a loud chorus.

After looking at the chart I just sat in wonder at how after hours smashes can be done. Then, like the tightest V I've witnessed, shot back up 10%. I've owned TRX for quite a while and have never ceased to be amazed at how it is attacked. But I've held and doubled my shares on the last big short campaign down near two bucks.

Now I see that Jim is to the point of taking up the cause... no, he's led the cause for many years... he's ramping up his efforts to be heard about the theft going on with naked shorts in mining shares. Makes me glad to know he's ticked and firing up a legion of responders to the SEC.

Jim Sinclair's Mineset

Back to the after hours massacre of TRX friday; we know that TPTB has lots of dubious allies. But watching the rebound, we also know that Santa has quite a few friends as well. Some in financial high places. Perhaps he'll bloody the nose or take out some of the hedgies that perpetrate this stuff. If he can catch them with their shorts down and strike, he will do more than a letter to the SEC. If enough mining companies do what Jim and Sprott have advised, and make these criminals lose big money naked shorting, then and only then will we see a shift in behavior and tactics. The regulators will slap wrists but the dividend-protected miners would remove the arms of these criminals.

Dr G
Jun 17, 2012 - 1:09pm

BREAKING: Rodney King dead.

BREAKING: Rodney King dead. Better call Jackson and Sharpton, I think they have a good case against the white man.


Jun 17, 2012 - 1:10pm

A subtle message?

Dimon wears Presidential Seal cufflinks to hearing:|htmlws-main-bb|dl1|sec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D170371

Jun 17, 2012 - 1:14pm

Rolling Stone gathers no moss...

But it's a very good thing. We see enough moss on MSM.

RS has become one of the only publications that will print the truth, unafraid. They did that in the 70's. If you haven't already seen it, and particularly if you were disheartened watching it live until you had to turn it off or throw up, read the article here on the Dimon Hearing charade. Matt Taibbi does his thing again, and he does it so well:

Senators Grovel, Embarrass Themselves at Dimon Hearing | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone

Chris P. Bacon
Jun 17, 2012 - 1:18pm
Jun 17, 2012 - 1:23pm

@ivars - reaction to vote


It sounds like the Greek election is far from decisive.

Does this not mean another 90 days of hand wringing and pacing at EuroParl and ECB?

With the MOPE going on, they just need another 90 day of more excuses.

Jun 17, 2012 - 1:32pm

Greek prediction

Hmmmm, a few days ago Mike Kreiger wrote

As we head into the Greek election this weekend, I thought it would be appropriate to recall the words of Joseph Stalin. Particularly his observation about elections and vote counting. I find it hilarious that the Greek authorities suspended polling heading into the election. I mean, that tells you everything you need to know. This is exactly what you would do if you were thinking about rigging the results. The worst thing that could happen would be to have Syriza soaring in the polls into the main event. If that was the case, it would be much more difficult to arrange a more “favorable” outcome. This way they can just claim “wow, unexpectedly the bankster parties won!” I’m not predicting that will be the outcome, I’m just saying the suspension of polling was a huge red flag. Here is the chart of the last polling results and some excellent commentary. Greece is extremely important as it is a key testing ground for TPTB.

My guess is a dead heat outcome. Like the Gore/Bush election a recount will be needed. Even when they decide on a winner there will then be a court case brought forth by the loosing party. It will be months before a winner could be announced.

In the mean time Greece stays in the Euro now, during and after. Just my uneducated opinion.

edit @ Strongside- you beat me to it while I was writing.

@Bam- Glad to see your tin foil hat tightness is not preventing you from hat tipping Triumph the Insult Dog

Jun 17, 2012 - 1:47pm

Real time election count map

Real time election count map in Greece:

Red regions- Syriza in front

Blue- New democracy


As I copied the link, around 16% of votes had been counted. So far New democracy 31%, Syriza-25% of counted votes.

Reload the page to get newest results.


Lets wait. The winner (if even by 1 vote) gets additional 50 seats. 1/6 of total 300 seats. That may change a lot.

Jun 17, 2012 - 2:03pm

Good work Murph

Looking quite prescient.

"My guess is a dead heat outcome. Like the Gore/Bush election a recount will be needed. Even when they decide on a winner there will then be a court case brought forth by the loosing party. It will be months before a winner could be announced. In the mean time Greece stays in the Euro now, during and after. Just my uneducated opinion."

bam ivars
Jun 17, 2012 - 2:09pm


>Lets wait. The winner (if even by 1 vote) gets additional 50 seats. 1/6 of total 300 seats.That may change a lot.

Even with the 50 seats, the winner will be forced to build a coalition if it wants to push anything meaningful through. Politicians still need to fiddle while Rome burns.

I'm not seeing these Greek elections changing much in the short term.

Honestly, a lot of the fuss seems to fall under the category of 'propaganda' imo. Look at the disaster that awaits us! Buy US Treasury Bonds! Pay no attention to the agitated giant albino elephant stamping its feet in anticipation in the dark corner of the room.

Jun 17, 2012 - 2:12pm

Just in case you forgot,

Maybe I'm stupid, but I think this says a lot more about the future than what's going on in Greece.

Jun 17, 2012 - 2:24pm


Greek elections and EUR problems happen NOW. USA debt problems will happen tomorrow. No doubt-Hence I concentrate on today, as long term is rather clear, but timing can only be extracted from reactions to such events as this Greek elections- or, if they are stretched out, that tells also about time line for future similar events . Since I live in Europe, can not ignore it. EUR weakness will accelerate USA default, but that comes later.

30% counted, New democracy clearly ahead - 30,6 % vs 25,84%.

bam ivars
Jun 17, 2012 - 2:44pm


I don't disagree. I'm just saying that the Greece election thing boils down to much ado about nothing. Except in as much as it might be used as an excuse by TPTB to move markets.

In other words, I don't think the outcomes of the Greek elections matter all that much (assuming they are relatively close). JMO of course.

Jun 17, 2012 - 3:00pm
Jun 17, 2012 - 3:06pm


I do not know. If New Democracy wins, and forms coalition, or there is prolonged uncertainty, Spain and Italy looms but are not current yet=no bailout talks, no clear conditions, no political unrest of a clear scale= Merkel can afford to do nothing and continue pushing forward her Geurope integration idea slowly, not listening to Obama as nothing has happened . Hence EUR will drop. And as it drops, USDx moves up and pressure on the USA increases immediately. Imports increase, exports drop, unemployment up. And this all because of Greek elections, even if result is "positive" and not delayed. JMO:)

If Syriza wins and forms coalition, EUR drops obviously as firewall will not be in place, nor large enough, and Greece will continue playing poker with Germany . So outcome the same-> EUR drops because of Greek elections. Obviously not a non-event.

bam ivars
Jun 17, 2012 - 3:09pm


>So outcome the same-> EUR drops because of Greek elections. Obviously not a non-event.

OK, but that is my point. The outcome of the election is a non-event. We have the usual can kicking process, which seems to be in place, no matter who wins. So worrying about who wins doesn't really seem to matter from this view.

It's interesting for sure, but I'm way more focused on Italy, UK, and by extension France, than I am on anything happening with the Greeks. All three of those offer more immediate pressures imo.

Italy is much further down the road than people are giving it credit for. I think they are in a worse spot than Spain. They are more important than Spain too.

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