The Games Continue - 1630 & 29

334
Fri, Jun 15, 2012 - 11:21am

As we await what could be an historic weekend, we might as well take some time to look at the current state of the paper metal markets. In a stunning development, prices appear to be capped.

First of all, we have to address what happened this morning. Even ZeroHedge, which for whatever reason attempts to completely ignore metal price manipulation, got in on the act this morning. (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-stop-hunt-goes-full-retard). In this instance, they are correct about the "stop hunt" but the bigger news (which isn't mentioned) is "whom" is doing the hunting and, even more suspiciously, the timing of it all.

Take a look at the chart below. Note that the $10 spike UP occurred at 8:26 EDT. At exactly 8:30 EDT, the NY Fed released a completely dreadful "Empire State Manufacturing Index" update. ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/plunging-empire-manufacturing-index-confirms-ongoing-economic-slide-imminent-central-planner-in). If we were to assign rationale for a $10 spike to the "disappointing" economic number, shouldn't the spike have occurred at 8:30 or 8:31? Hmmm? Nope, As you can plainly see, the spike occurred at 8:26.

Now, we could probably spend all day asking questions like:

  • Was the data "news" leaked?
  • Were the trades executed by a stop-trolling spec algo or a stop-trolling Cartel algo?
  • Was it all pre-designed to act exactly at 8:30, using the headlines as "cover"? And did someone just get antsy and/or program the trade to begin prematurely?

Of course, well never know. The CFTC couldn't give a rat's ass about things like this. They're too busy planning parties where they spend the money saved by Gensler and Chilton never seeing a barber. Regardless, all of this is simply today's "Exhibit A" of the total farce which the paper metal markets have become.

So, anyway, back to 1630 and 29. Take a look at the chart above and you'll see something else: Another foray above $1630 that was quickly beaten back. Why is $1630 so special. Well, I could cite a number of reasons but let's stick to the charts. First, I lifted the chart below from Trader Dan. (Dan doesn't get to post much but that doesn't mean you shouldn't still be checking his site daily https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

Note the horizontal and diagonal resistance around 1630. You can also see The Cartel capping action on this chart:

The effort to keep silver below $29 is even more obvious and...odd. Seriously, why $29? What makes $29 so important to JPM? (Since we know from the latest CFTC data that JPM is the only firm shorting at this point, it is logical to deduce that JPM is the party capping price at $29.) July12 silver options expire on June 26. That's still 7 trading days away and $29 is an odd number to defend for that sake. There's far more known option open interest at $30 than there is at $29. Maybe you think I'm crazy. Maybe you think I'm seeing things. Maybe you should have a look for yourself.

At any rate, price is clearly being held below $1630 and $29 and I sure don't expect that to change over the remainder of the day. There might be some fluctuation but why on earth would anyone be willing to gamble by taking a large position at this point. It's much safer to lay low, watch the headlines and get ready for Monday.

As you all know, the Greek elections are Sunday. Regardless of the outcome, we can expect fireworks when everything re-opens Sunday night. And do not overlook the Egyptian elections which are also this weekend. Boyohboy, if you want to talk about long-term, Middle Eastern geo-political ramifications, look no farther than the Egyptian elections.

In the time it has taken me to type this, I see that another foray above $1630 has been beaten back. That's pretty funny. Again....what a complete joke the paper metal markets are. However, that should not stop you from buying even more physical metal. I am still expecting a hot, explosive summer for gold and silver prices. Physical demand is extraordinarily strong and events are swirling that will change forever the dynamic of how gold and silver are priced. Be patient and continue stacking.

Have a great weekend but be prepared for a very wild and volatile week ahead.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  334 Comments

Island Teal
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:24am

2nd ?????

Hang on for the coming ride

Everyone have a good weekend

rocoach
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:28am

maybe?

Does anyone have a theory as to the significance of $29 silver?

Slick rocoach
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:34am

Significance of $29

After 29 comes the 30s then the 40s

Big L
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:34am

Thurd

Turd's Thurd?

Edit:

In what point of time were 1630 and 29 the average prices of those metals?

That is, on or about those dates, what was going on in the broader financial markets? Or currency markets?

Those numbers have been agreed upon for a reason. If we can tease out the reason, perhaps we can finger a cause?

Perhaps we can deduce the players by the timing?

Big L
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:43am

Jan 2011 for silver and gold

Right before a big jump/change in price and trend? I'm not good with charts but it looks to me like a 'natural' top, or what I would call a 'hitch' upward. Not so technical at term, but I think you can see what I mean.

Same thing with gold, that level is about the same time, and precedes a strong move upwards in the prices.

That's the way it appears on the Kitco 5 yr chart.

If I was negotiating a 'fair' price for metals, I'd be willing to take those numbers based on the historical charts.

What else was going on, at about this time in financial history?

Anybody else think this has merit?

sdstacker
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:44am

36

Is a major battle line. It is also rumored that if the price of silver is above 36, JPM's derivative losses are multiplied. Not sure the truth to that but silver has been defended as if it were.

Headswim
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:47am

China to buy LME

https://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/story/2012-06-15/hong-kong-s...

I've been lurking here for the past several months and saw this gem on my USA today app (I like to keep abreast of "news" for the occasional gems that hint at what's really going on).

I've seen some discussion over the last few weeks about what China's plans are....and here it is! After reading this I knew I had to make an account and post right away.

Thanks to everyone in the community for all the discussion, and keep stacking!

Doc1800
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:53am

If you draw trendline on the

If you draw trendline on the daily chart from 1 March of 2012 until the first part of June 2012 that trenline leads to the price of around 29 I suspect what they're doing is holding it under that trendline just as long as they can with op ex coming next week to hold it under the trendline gives them a shot to keep it under 30 barring conditions following this weekend. Besides that any whole round number 30 4050 those numbers will be defended at the lower point in order to keep momentum from occurring

Chris P. Bacon
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:54am
Anonymous rocoach
Jun 15, 2012 - 11:57am

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