Getting Real, Real Fast

258
Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!

TF

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  258 Comments

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The8thHabit
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:45pm

Dr G

I am glad you are here! I was not pointing specifically at you but at the general sense of negativity in the comments section here on Tuesday. You don't need to be a perma-bull, but you also don't need to be a downer who always sees glass half empty. As Turd pointed out Silver is not 25% down for year, but outperforming many other assets including stocks. Cheer up yourself and help cheer up others! That's what we all here for!

Jun 1, 2012 - 2:44pm

Speaking of "Rollover"

John Butler mentions this movie in his book. I haven't watched it yet. Perhaps we should all watch it over the weekend.

Video unavailable
Louie
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:42pm

Greece out this weekend?

Would it make scene for the EU to kick Greece out this weekend?

Using the Diamond Jubilee to keep everyone from running to Pounds or emptying the London Bullion markets.

All the Bilderbergs could have a grand party together Saturday night.

Jun 1, 2012 - 2:42pm

July12 silver closed

at 28.51

FB last 28.10. Contest still has a chance to extend into next week...

cpnscarlet
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:40pm

When Santa Posts This....

Santa had this clip on his site today. He's usually more reserved than this to say the least.

I'm even more nervous now.

Rollover 1981... world economic collapse
colihondroHoping to learn
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:39pm

the markets

have been being sold for a few months now

Reply to: Am I thinking correctly ?

ggnewmex
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:39pm

depressing

in that when I was moving my stash via a canoe, to my "secret spot", well, the thing got tippy and is laying in many feet of water and mud. I have no idea what to do, and I am sick about it,

but, at least is was not alot, can always start again, just got to pay a higher price

Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:39pm

Turd, you are absolutely

Turd, you are absolutely correct. It is up 2% this year. I meant to say year/year (6/1/11-today).

Fritzivars
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:37pm

In my 3rd day of reading on

144 is a Fibonacci (naturally occurring) number.

cpnscarlet
Jun 1, 2012 - 2:36pm

Of course, it feels a little better.

It is nice to see a day like this, but we need many more to get back to something called "normal" for this bull market.

But, friends and enemies, it is the print of the UST that still has me in a funk thinking about the whole shootin' match. Things, if they are coming to head, are going to be nasty. And I just hope I can get some friends to do a little more to protect themselves.

UST 1.46% =

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9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
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9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

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9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

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9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
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9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
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