Getting Real, Real Fast

Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here:

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Jun 1, 2012 - 4:44pm

re gold in dollars and euros

Gold is, for once, up considerably in both USD and euros. This was not just a currency event, except in so much as gold obviously caught a bid as the currency of choice. The euro and the USD are going down, as are the rupee and and and ... all money made entirely of paper and worthless trinkets.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:43pm

Ranting Andy

Ranting Andy statement at Silverseek

"June 1, 2012 will be remembered as a watershed day. “Cartel Rule #1” was already broken on Wednesday – i.e., “thou shalt not let PMs rise when the Dow plunges,” and nearly was yesterday as well, until they viciously ATTACKED PMs and GOOSED the “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” at midday. But today – with European markets already in freefall, the BLS published its third straight catastrophic NFP employment report. Upon its release, gold EXPLODED $50/oz – actually, $65/oz given its typical overnight, Cartel-induced weakness, while the Dow plunged 220 points, with three hours remaining in the trading day. Today could be THE DAY when the world realizes PMs are the true “safe havens,” catalyzing the END GAME for the ill-fated GLOBAL fiat currency system."

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:40pm

Silver Shortage - not yet, ~but....

I am going out on a limb and forecasting a serious silver shortage at dealers approx. 6-7 weeks from now. We are already seeing some interesting species run out, like the 90% at tulving, right? There is still PLENTY of silver to be had, though, just a little less now than 2 weeks ago. I think that small retail investors will flood the market within 6 weeks, and accelerate a serious depletion of inventory.

Disclaimer: I just want credit for calling it first. Otherwise, I am not a professional, and have no idea what I'm talking about, ok? No liability, here. :-)

I Run Bartertown
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:40pm


"The Banking Cartels think they are going to take our Social Security"

Haha! The politicians beat them to that a long time ago. But you'd think the banks would know that. General Revenues, Suckers!!!

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:37pm

Unit, that would require

Unit, that would require crap, nothing but crap to admit they were wrong...they never do or will.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:36pm

dr g

silver didn't get quite the pop cause its got the 'industrial' part........deflation fears grabbed that alittle.[grabbed everything else almost today]

we know its closer to the end silver really goes off n %wise outdoes gold.

we ain't there yet.

all this my firm opinion only.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:34pm

Urine: The body's own health

Urine: The body's own health drink? Some claim it cures everything from colds to cancer, while stranded hiker Paul Beck drank nothing else for six days and survived. So does urine have genuine health benefits? Maxine Frith investigates No, I haven't tried it ...just read similar article a week ago...

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:31pm


Hi ivars, yes they have to be either simmered at 160 to 200 degrees for twenty minutes or dried at 200 degrees. No you do not have to drink any urine, :). It is said that the ancients drank their own urine after ingesting and that the effects of the mushroom were intensified by being thusly concentrated. I'll pass on that.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:26pm


From the top tick yearly high on 5/16/2012, DUST is an astounding -45% down in 2.5 weeks.

Is that the odor of scorched Bears rolling around in their own Poo that I detect?

Seriously (and I know we're all adults), please be careful out there when playing with leveraged ETFs.


highwayDr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:15pm

Dr G

re USD down 0.28% -

The US Dollar Index is an index that measures the value of the US dollar compared to other major currencies (euro, yen, pound etc) When market goes down, and people are fearful, money denominated in other currencies run to so called safe heaven currency USD. and I think that's why it is only down 0.28%.. Compared to gold, USD is down 4% however..

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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