Getting Real, Real Fast

258
Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  258 Comments

  Refresh
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:44pm

re gold in dollars and euros

Gold is, for once, up considerably in both USD and euros. This was not just a currency event, except in so much as gold obviously caught a bid as the currency of choice. The euro and the USD are going down, as are the rupee and and and ... all money made entirely of paper and worthless trinkets.

rl999
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:43pm

Ranting Andy

Ranting Andy statement at Silverseek

"June 1, 2012 will be remembered as a watershed day. “Cartel Rule #1” was already broken on Wednesday – i.e., “thou shalt not let PMs rise when the Dow plunges,” and nearly was yesterday as well, until they viciously ATTACKED PMs and GOOSED the “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” at midday. But today – with European markets already in freefall, the BLS published its third straight catastrophic NFP employment report. Upon its release, gold EXPLODED $50/oz – actually, $65/oz given its typical overnight, Cartel-induced weakness, while the Dow plunged 220 points, with three hours remaining in the trading day. Today could be THE DAY when the world realizes PMs are the true “safe havens,” catalyzing the END GAME for the ill-fated GLOBAL fiat currency system."

https://www.silverseek.com/article/ranting-andy-silver

Steinbacken
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:40pm

Silver Shortage - not yet, ~but....

I am going out on a limb and forecasting a serious silver shortage at dealers approx. 6-7 weeks from now. We are already seeing some interesting species run out, like the 90% at tulving, right? There is still PLENTY of silver to be had, though, just a little less now than 2 weeks ago. I think that small retail investors will flood the market within 6 weeks, and accelerate a serious depletion of inventory.

Disclaimer: I just want credit for calling it first. Otherwise, I am not a professional, and have no idea what I'm talking about, ok? No liability, here. :-)

I Run Bartertown
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:40pm

recaptureamerica

"The Banking Cartels think they are going to take our Social Security"

Haha! The politicians beat them to that a long time ago. But you'd think the banks would know that. General Revenues, Suckers!!!

recaptureamerica
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:37pm

Unit, that would require

Unit, that would require crap, nothing but crap to admit they were wrong...they never do or will.

boatman
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:36pm

dr g

silver didn't get quite the pop cause its got the 'industrial' part........deflation fears grabbed that alittle.[grabbed everything else almost today]

we know its closer to the end silver really goes off n %wise outdoes gold.

we ain't there yet.

all this my firm opinion only.

recaptureamerica
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:34pm

Urine: The body's own health

Urine: The body's own health drink? Some claim it cures everything from colds to cancer, while stranded hiker Paul Beck drank nothing else for six days and survived. So does urine have genuine health benefits? Maxine Frith investigates https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news... No, I haven't tried it ...just read similar article a week ago...

sengfarmer
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:31pm

ivars

Hi ivars, yes they have to be either simmered at 160 to 200 degrees for twenty minutes or dried at 200 degrees. No you do not have to drink any urine, :). It is said that the ancients drank their own urine after ingesting and that the effects of the mushroom were intensified by being thusly concentrated. I'll pass on that.

https://www.erowid.org/plants/amanitas/

pickaxe
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:26pm

DUSTED!

From the top tick yearly high on 5/16/2012, DUST is an astounding -45% down in 2.5 weeks.

Is that the odor of scorched Bears rolling around in their own Poo that I detect?

Seriously (and I know we're all adults), please be careful out there when playing with leveraged ETFs.

~pickaxe

highwayDr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:15pm

Dr G

re USD down 0.28% -

The US Dollar Index is an index that measures the value of the US dollar compared to other major currencies (euro, yen, pound etc) When market goes down, and people are fearful, money denominated in other currencies run to so called safe heaven currency USD. and I think that's why it is only down 0.28%.. Compared to gold, USD is down 4% however..

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Recent Comments

by scoremore, 12 min 56 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 15 min 30 sec ago
by robobrewer, 18 min 20 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 22 min 8 sec ago