Getting Real, Real Fast

258
Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!

TF

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  258 Comments

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rtabit
Jun 1, 2012 - 5:23pm

CNBC

I listen to it all day long in the background when I work from home, which is most days. They have gold bulls on the time, I'd say maybe two or three a day average. They also have gold bears on, bears probably outnumber bulls, but not by much, which I consider good, what good is listening gold bulls all day long going to do. I don't understand the hate, I've only been listening for a few months, maybe they've changed and you don't listen to anymore.

cpnscarlet
Jun 1, 2012 - 5:06pm
ActionFive
Jun 1, 2012 - 5:03pm

Derek

he is a great guy, and recognized that religion can come to dominate the main page.

I've been communicating with him via email in the days since so I don't think he's too pissed off

---------------------------------------------------

No, just trashed.

recaptureamerica
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:56pm

It ain't all rosy US Debt

It ain't all rosy...... US Debt Soars By $54 Billion Overnight, Closes May At Record $15,770,685,085,364.10 https://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-debt-soars-54-billion-overnight-closes... Stack-a-lacking? I wonder what the EE will discuss Saturday and Sunday at the Bilderberg weekend getaway?

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:54pm

Hey, Where is Victor the Cleaner?

I was hoping you would chime in this recent market activity. Perhaps also, you could update us as to the pending JP Morgue silver manipulation class action suit, in light of the Court having heard oral argument and taking the Morgue's motion to dismiss under submission?

Well, where are you?

Where are you as well, Retireyoung? Care to share any wisdom for us?

ActionFive
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:54pm

I've been communicating with

I've been communicating with him via email in the days since so I don't think he's too pissed off.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:54pm

re Derek

he is a great guy, and recognized that religion can come to dominate the main page.

vonburpenstein
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:52pm

Just talked to my Aunt...

...She told me she bought some ' you know what' (fb) on margin! .... She is sort of pissed at cnbc, why - I just don't know...I've been trying to get her on this site for 2 years. She also told me gold was dead, oh well - you can lead a horse...

Also, I have minority friend of mine that came around today looking for work...He doesn't own a computer and can't read but was talking to me about what he saw coming down the pipe chaos-wise.....It's not like I would ever normally take what he had to say too seriously, but when someone like THIS guy is telling ME whats gonna happen when tshtf ----It tells me there are winds a blowin out there....It's good to have friends in low places sometimes. Think I might skip the round this week and go preppin this weekend...Nice to have a good finish to the week for a change, huh?

I've got a question....If we know there'll come a point when things crash before they go up, why aren't we waiting till then to btfd? Because there won't be any to be found?

Cheers

ActionFive
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:51pm

Derek

Does anyone remember this? The guy's name is Derek. Perhaps he can come on here later today and add some color?

--------------------------------------------

Yes, I remember. You and moderator Jane banished his religious ideas to his own personal page here.

Your faith? LOL!

recaptureamerica
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:47pm

"Gold's 4% gain is the

"Gold's 4% gain is the biggest day since January 2009. " From... https://www.zerohedge.com/news/deer-back 3 years for a 4% daily gain? Wonder how many 4% or more daily drops in 3 years there were?

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