Getting Real, Real Fast

Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here:

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 1, 2012 - 12:03pm

Had to remind about this:

Had to remind about this: DJIA 11500 looks like a close reality:

Improved version by goldpricemodel here-he made it on March 3 on top of my latest DJIA version- notice that the first SHARP drop in his model starts in the beginning of May.

Points to QE in July 2012- a good guess as well.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:03pm

Strong Stomach

bam - he's got a strong stomach alright. He's been through a lot in this life time. He understands the volatility, but also recognizes where things are heading and believes silver will outperform gold during the next several years as things unwind all around us. He may buy gold (he owns none), but right now his focus is on silver. He has 50% of his allocated capital waiting for lower prices.

xty - I do stack; I have far more silver than I do gold. I have been buying through Provident for the past 1.5 years. I have followed and been interested in gold/silver since 2007. Unfortunately, I initiated my investment thesis through the miners and not bullion. Fortunately, I wised up. I still hold miners, but most of my investment dollars are now in bullion.

Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:04pm

Anybody have thoughts as to

Anybody have thoughts as to why the silver response is so weak in comparison to gold? Both up around 3.5%. Silver should be in the 5% range based simply on how they usually trade.


R man J
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:05pm

Just pulled this from my Twitter feed

Freaked me for a brief moment.

bam TF
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:06pm


I still cannot get over that last name: LIESman

It's so f**ing perfect.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:06pm
Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:07pm

@ivars: I think July 31/Aug 1

@ivars: I think July 31/Aug 1 QE as well. That gives them 1 more month of crappy job numbers before unleashing the beast.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:07pm

Looking good

Gold holding and even managing to creep higher. Very nice. $1615 last.

What should be a positive CoT will help on the Globex, too.

Eric Original
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:07pm

I'm thinking pretty soon I

I'm thinking pretty soon I can take FB off my "deathwatch" ticker, and put JPM on in it's place. Just checked a quote. Did someone say "Bacon??" This day just keeps getting better.

Katie Rose
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:09pm

Coin Store Owner's imput

I just spoke with my favorite dealer about purchasing some SAE's. I don't have much money as the Vet got my SAE savings account when she valiantly tried to save one of my goats. I am convinced her death is due to GMO feed.

His input startled me. He said there were many more folks coming in to sell their silver than to purchase more at these low prices.

As we chatted, he also stated that he thought that part of the purpose of the shake down in the metal's market was to destroy the local dealers like himself. He was very pensive as we spoke.....

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:10pm

The Cartel

Looks like the Cartel carefully painted an unpleasant downwards pattern onto today's chart *right* before buying in quantity and killing all the speculative shorts.

It remains to be seen if the Cartel is finally going net long and forever changing the behavior of PMs, or if they are just eating the specs for breakfast before resuming normal operations.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:10pm

@Dr G silver

Silver should catch-up today - Monday if upswing continues. I guess its the industrial use of silver that is holding it a bit back.

Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:11pm

Katie, nice story. Could be

Katie, nice story. Could be true. You gotta figure that many small shops have a lot of bullion that was purchased a prices higher than where we are now. I mean, we've been at these spot prices heading downward for nearly a year now. Hopefully some of these dealers are hedged. I think most are.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:11pm

@ Just pulled this from my Twitter feed

I think the gold price is supposed to be $2,611.95


Jun 1, 2012 - 12:15pm

Not to get all religious on you...

...BUT...he did say that June 1, 2012 was the start of something BIG in silver.

Does anyone remember this? The guy's name is Derek. Perhaps he can come on here later today and add some color?

An updated event timeline comparing

Jesus Christ’s Approx 33 year life in the flesh to our current Silver market

Jesus Christ



Year 1, Jesus Christ born- Luke 2.11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.


1st Year

The silver market first boomed in 1979/80 as the Hunt brothers built a huge silver position and Silver prices spiked to all-time highs.

Jesus Christ was alive in the flesh until His 33rd Year. In His 33rd year, on the 14th day following the spring equinox, at 0900 hrs, He was raised up onto the cross.

See Companion Bible appendix 165 for all scripture references and full-size chart documenting the days and hours surrounding Christ’s crucifixion.

33rd Year

14th Solar day

0900 hrs

April 2nd, 2012- In the 33rd year of this generation’s Silver market, on the 14th day following the spring equinox, at 0900 hrs(EST), Silver was raised up past 33.

Chart time is 1 hour ahead due to daylight savings time.

(This day was also 33 days after Senator Ron Paul flashed a Silver Eagle to the chairman of the Federal Reserve while discussing the demise of fiat currency.)

In Christ’s 33rd year, on the 14th day following the spring equinox, at 1500 hrs, He died on the cross, His days in the flesh ended in His 33rd year.

See Companion Bible appendix 50 for Biblical timeline indicating Christ’s time in the flesh=33 years

33rd Year

14th Solar day

1500 hrs

April 2nd, 2012- In the 33rd year of this generation’s Silver Market, on the 14th day following the spring equinox, at 1500 hrs(EST), Silver was lowered to, and ended the day at, 33.

Chart time is 1 hour ahead due to daylight savings time.

Christ resurrected on the 3rd day (Luke 24 1-7), prompting the religious “powers that be” to respond by paying soldiers to report false statements as to why Christ was not in the tomb.

Matthew 28.11 Now when they were going, behold, some of the watch came into the city, and shewed unto the chief priests all the things that were done. 12. And when they were assembled with the elders, and had taken counsel, they gave large money unto the soldiers, 13. Saying, Say ye, His disciples came by night, and stole him away while we slept. 14. And if this come to the governor's ears, we will persuade him, and secure you. 15. So they took the money, and did as they were taught: and this saying is commonly reported among the Jews until this day.

bold text added

33rd Year

17th Solar Day

3 days later



April 5th, 2012- A chief officer from one of the largest silver trading banks went on television to report that her bankers only trade silver as deemed prudent by their customer.

And in what may or may not be an unrelated report- Also on April 5th it was reported by An unnamed London Trader (who claims to have visibility of the vaults where the Precious Metals reside), that the Asians had came and removed the metal away.

After His resurrection on the third day, Christ spent 40 days teaching His disciples before ascending into heaven.

Acts 1.1 The former treatise have I made, O Theophilus, of all that Jesus began both to do and teach, 2. Until the day in which he was taken up, after that he through the Holy Ghost had given commandments unto the apostles whom he had chosen: 3. To whom also he shewed himself alive after his passion by many infallible proofs, being seen of them forty days, and speaking of the things pertaining to the kingdom of God:

bold text added




interaction with followers

40 “calendar” days from April 5th, 2012 would be May 14th 2012. But the Silver market is not open (for interaction with “followers”) every calendar day!! The 40 “live market” days of 2012 starting with April 5th are as follows- April 5th(1), 9th(2), 10th(3), 11th(4), 12th(5), 13th(6), 16th(7), 17th(8), 18th(9), 19th(10), 20th(11), 23rd(12), 24th(13), 25th(14), 26th(15), 27th (16), 30th(17), May 1st(18), 2nd(19), 3rd(20), 4th(21), 7th(22), 8th(23), 9th(24), 10th(25), 11th(26), 14th(27), 15th(28), 16th(29), 17th(30), 18th(31), 21st(32), 22nd(33), 23rd(34), 24th(35), 25th(36), 29th(37), 30th(38), 31st(39),

June 1st(40)

Market Closed April 6, May 28

After the 40 days with His apostles, The Savior ascended to God.

Mark 16.19 So then after the Lord had spoken unto them, he was received up into heaven, and sat on the right hand of God.

The Ascension


“S” to “G”

The above 11 facts were compiled by user AgNAu2b121pdq at

MAYBE this is nothing. One thing I do know, however. The weasly, mealy-mouthed shorts are having a religious experience today, that's for sure.

Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:16pm

I just can't believe these

I just can't believe these jobs numbers. You know it's all cooked, which means they know exactly what they are doing, which means they want lower numbers, which means they want us to need them to print, which means we are all screwed.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:20pm

Carrying on with the biblical theme

London re-opens on "the third day". Monday = closed day one. Tuesday = closed day two. Wednesday = open third day.

Hmmmm. Freakier and freakier...

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:20pm


Ithaca struggling today and appears less a bargain than when I bought it the other day BUT we should see a bounce with QE3.

I've got to agree with Turd on this one though (as in most things). The initial crash was merciless on oil stocks and could be every bit as bad this time. Who will buy my oil stock (I own just the one) when industry is using only half as much of the stuff as today and a full bucket sells for $40. But it would be nice to fill the tank for 20 or 30 bucks, wouldn't it?

Why is it that rising PMs must always leave such a bittersweet taste?

Big Buffalo
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:22pm


I'm gonna wait until gold is at $1425 or even $1200 before I buy.


Jun 1, 2012 - 12:22pm

The Turd Army added over

The Turd Army added over $2800 today. Well done by our Great Leader. Over 5X return on the monthly fee and it's only the first day of the month!

Stock_Canines Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:23pm


That is Jesse's take as well. They could have made these numbers look better, but they didn't. Why?

In reading this, the thought crossed my mind, are they 'allowing' dumpster numbers now, so as to build off them heading into election. In other words, make it look horrible now, so that the trend is up as we enter election cycle? Or, are the numbers just simply horrible.

Jager06 TF
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:24pm

Holy Smokes!

That dear Turd is a crazy timeline comparison. Gives me goosebumps.

Thanks for "resurrecting" it....haha!

Bongo Jim TF
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:26pm


Damn, I missed tomb sweeping day.

I Wazere
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:28pm

It's quite funny in a perverse sort of way ...

... the saucer-like, wild-eyed looks of the blow drys today. Perhaps they're not as dumb as they look.

I think they realise that when gold/dow ratio hits 1 at 5,000 ; not only will their portfolios equal zero, but they will no longer be employable.

Doc Scurlock
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:28pm

Buy low

For several weeks/months, folks like Santa, Turd, Turk, Sprott,...etc. have been recommending that investors continue to accumulate physical metals and select mining shares. Days like today are why. Not just because price is going up, but the precious metals markets have a tendency to spike higher early in their moves up which puts the investor in the position to chase it. Don't let the down times discourage you. The thesis is intact, keep accumulating so you are prepared for days such as these. Keep stacking.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:32pm

London is shut - s'true

Two day bank holiday for the Queen's Golden Jubilee. The irony is not lost.

R man J TF
Jun 1, 2012 - 12:32pm

Next major event after ascension

Pentecost...10 days later. The receiving of the Spirit and His gifts applied to believers lives ("the unsearchable riches of Christ", Eph. 3:8)

Not exactly sure how this would apply :)

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:34pm


IVARS.... I don't think silver is being held back by the "INDUSTRIAL SENTIMENT". From my chart below, we can see that Industrial demand during supposed global silver DEFICITS had no impact on the price from the 1990's-2004. When there were so-called DEFICITS the price of silver remained around $5 an ounce.

When we had the first so-called SURPLUSES in silver, then we started to see the price move higher. In 2011, the so-called SURPLUS according to GFMS was 260 million ounces... A RECORD. However bearish this looks, this was also the same year we had a RECORD SILVER AVERAGE PRICE of $35.12.

I don't think the INDUSTRIAL ELEMENT has anything to do with the price. I have seen in MARKET TURNS, once gold and silver bounce, silver does outperform..... but not in the beginning.

Looks like we are going to be in for an INTERESTING SUMMER...

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:38pm

@Irksome-backyard Blythe

Actually, she lives in a forest nearby. That is where I get my charts.

Jun 1, 2012 - 12:38pm


Spanked by TF;

No, I don't think you of all people make shit up. But there have been reports of a 5 day bank holiday in Europe before the SHTF big time. 2 days? What about the usual weeks of holidays in Asia?

It just seems not anything other than normal.


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