Getting Real, Real Fast

258
Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!

TF

About the Author

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  258 Comments

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Zoltan
Jun 3, 2012 - 10:17pm

Internet Advice

I liked the comment that anything is edible, once.

For God's sake don't base any decision on internet advice from anonymous strangers. DYODD

Z

ClinkinKY
Jun 2, 2012 - 6:49pm

Federal Reserve Can't Afford $250

Hit the Fed’s tip jar

Posted by William A. Jacobson Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 9:45am 1 2

From a reader known to me but who asked to stay anonymous:

Not even sure what kind of subject line to give this one:

One of the pieces of our business involves providing media research to the general public. We strive to provide a very affordable service using the latest toys and technology… not an easy trick.

Last week, we got a request from the local branch of the Federal Reserve to review and document a recent PR event they held. I quoted them a total price under $250 including delivery and sent them the work order for approval. We finally heard back this morning. They cancelled the order - “They just can’t afford it right now”.

Don’t get me wrong – I completely understand and respect a client that is conscientious about observing a budget, but when the Federal Reserve tells you they can’t afford something it’s time to start worrying.

You’re welcome to use that story – please withhold name and city - several of my clients read your blog!

And I’ve got to get back to work – I have a $250 shortfall in this week’s budget to make up before the end of the day.

Link:https://legalinsurrection.com/2012/06/hit-the-feds-tip-jar/

Torpedo Fish
Jun 2, 2012 - 12:25pm

Amanita

Not sure about eating it, but it surely helps against arthritis and other bone & joint diseases.

StychoKiller
Jun 2, 2012 - 5:33am

@ivars, re: Mushroom

Amanita Muscaria is not necessarily poisonous, just don't eat too many of them at once (then call yer travel agent for a psychedelic trip!) :>D

atarangi
Jun 2, 2012 - 2:31am
MUDbone
Jun 2, 2012 - 1:20am
ApacheEuropean American
Jun 2, 2012 - 12:49am

Gold will never hit $2000,

Gold will never hit $2000, according to tMosely. We will hit $0-$1 in spot gold, apparently, and gold will never be able to have a price attached to it.

AlienEyes
Jun 1, 2012 - 10:57pm

TF wrote : "The media will

TF wrote : "The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down?"

Until I read that, I thought I had today's action figured out. Now, not so much.

I thought more QE was now an absolutely necessity, not a "hope".....thereby making a larger bout of inflation a sure thing at some time in the not to distance future.

Stocks were down because consumer confidence was almost nonexistent and there was nothing positive whatsoever to tout.

Since the stock market reflects the future of oil and energy use, both went south because the stock market ( industrials, financials and transportation, et al ) is going to hell in a hand basket and to a large extent are already reflecting the coming landslide of inflation of the USD and the Euro. With the stock market headed for an extended stay in the latrine, oil and natgas demand is also on the way to lower prices.

I agree that fear is the blanket term and results for "all fooked up". Sometimes, Turd....you give me a cat. 5 headache.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

johnboatcat
Jun 1, 2012 - 10:50pm

Buuurpppp!

Oh, excuse me. Last!

S Roche
Jun 1, 2012 - 9:50pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
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7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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