Getting Back Up To Speed

Tue, May 29, 2012 - 12:15pm

The Turd thoroughly enjoyed his 3-day break from the madness. However, I've spent all my morning getting back up to speed and now it's getting late.

I had planned a more in-depth post but, since it's now almost noon EDT and things are moving quickly, I'll keep this brief. The metals spiked earlier and gold traded all the way to 1583. Rumors and hopes of a new LTRO-type program in EuroLand caused some buying and short-covering. All for naught as it IS Tuesday, after all, and the CoT survey needs to be "painted" by The Cartel. Once a nice, high PM fix price was attained in London, down she went and now I have gold all the way back to 1556 and silver under 28. Yee haw!

Sorry if I seem unfazed by this. If it seems that way it's because I am. Please utilize this and any further weakness to add to your stack. It may seem hard to believe at this instant but the metals, particularly silver, are headed dramatically higher from here. PLEASE keep stacking.

Here are two other charts for consideration. Note that the POSX is above 82. IF it can continue higher and move through 84, it will likely head toward 88-89 and the very top of the 5-year range. I thought a long-term crude chart would be valuable, as well. Crude, being the most heavily-traded, dollar-based commodity, must be watched closely. As it stands currently, the chart would indicate that the "deflationist argument" is winning. Again, The Federal Reserve cannot and will not stand for this. A POSX near 90 and plummeting crude might be all the evidence needed for the initiation of the next great printing operation.

Just a few words on the progress of "Turd's Army". For May, after fees, Army members have added 3 gold coins a roll of eagles to their stacks. This is particularly impressive performance given the sheer brutality of the day-trading market over the course of May. IF YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL TRADER, you need to seriously consider or reconsider the service. Once again, details can be found here ( and the form that you can use to sign up is here (

Again, I hope you're not freaked out by the drop within the last hour or so. To me, this is all nonsense shenanigans playing out as The Cartel attempts to paint the CoT. This action is of ZERO long-term significance. Stay the course and PLEASE utilize bouts of weakness to add to your physical stack (or begin one if you haven't already). The paper price of precious metal is going much, much higher from here. Silver, in particular, is going to experience an explosive and powerful rally this summer and beyond. Just keep stacking.

Much more later today. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Fortinbras · May 29, 2012 - 12:17pm


Not gonna say it....

tranquillity · May 29, 2012 - 12:17pm

Good Timing on that post

Good Timing on that post =)
Waterfall in eur vs the pig and the same in gold and silver =/

Tube · May 29, 2012 - 12:19pm


Thurd...I can't take this abuse much longer

· May 29, 2012 - 12:20pm

Go back to CNBC if you want the truth.

Read my lips: there is no manipulation! that would be wrong. And that kind of thing does not happen in America.

But If I were a manipulator, I would do it a little bit at a time as often as the news will bear it. Then nobody could point to large moves on no news.

· May 29, 2012 - 12:20pm

Anyone who guessed early June

Anyone who guessed early June on the FB/Ag Hat Contest is looking good. Shit, maybe even late May at this rate!

· May 29, 2012 - 12:21pm

There is SO MUCH STUFF going

There is SO MUCH STUFF going on behind the scenes. Just BTFD and take delivery!

zhihui · May 29, 2012 - 12:26pm



SilverWealth · May 29, 2012 - 12:26pm


Cartel very much alive and well in Gold. Huge waterfall first leg down insures retest of low areas probably tomorrow and then if it breaks a quick move down to 1400 imo.

In metals there is no support. Only raids off news opportunities the banks seize upon. Metals all in a decided downtrend. Monthly chart on Gold is parabolic unfortunately. All relative strength in GDX is being surrendered and violated on this engulfing candle on the daily chart. So far it was just a bounce.

Will watch now for 2nd big impulse down in GC from the Borg. It will follow, resistance is futile, the Borg almost always follows one big wave down with another a little later on. Just a question of how much of a corrective bounce they put in and to where imo.

mapleleaf · May 29, 2012 - 12:27pm


Wish I could, but I've been B'ing the FD all the way down and have no more dry powder. Gettin' hard to keep the faith here, but I guess what else are you going to invest in?

Must. Not. Capitulate.


Platinum_Investor · May 29, 2012 - 12:32pm

They were waiting for it...

It's almost as if people knew today was a RAID day. All my mining shares were even to slightly down this morning before the raid even though the Dow + the TSX were both up big. Now that the raid happened, all my mining shares are down 3-6%. It's just to darn easy for the shorts, since they are obviously in the know. Of course I bought $200K in a silver stock just before the raid. Now down 5.5%

recaptureamerica · May 29, 2012 - 12:34pm

Gold Prices: Death Cross

Gold Prices: Death Cross Signals Bubble Has Popped Says Suttmeier Lol...must be a delayed reaction

Platinum_Investor · May 29, 2012 - 12:36pm

I can't take much more of

I can't take much more of this crap... I wish I never found this site to cheer me on to more losses.

Keep the faith, YOU WILL LOSE MORE MONEY! That's what has happened to me at least. 

Really wish I never found this site and others similar. I feel like we are a band of bothers like the small group of "Occupy Wall Street" that everyone laughs at. 

agrock · May 29, 2012 - 12:37pm

@turd .... spreadsheet?

turd do you have a spreadsheet for the FB/AG contest?

Eric Original · May 29, 2012 - 12:37pm

Another threat to the food chain-bye bye Pacific Salmon

Fish farming operations in British Columbia threaten to spread disease to the entire wild Pacific salmon fishery. They've already decimated the Atlantic, so why stop now? Meanwhile, the BC gov't is clearly a wholly owned subsidiary of the fish farming industry, so good luck getting anything done about it. In fact, they are ramming a law through right now that would muzzle the opposition with the threat of jail time.

Alexandra Morton is on the front lines of the battle. Here is a Seattle Times article about the struggle:

And here is her blog, the best place to start to get involved.

I'm going to go order up another couple of cases of my favorite Sockeye. Between the fish farms and Fukushima, it seems their days are numbered.

ivars · May 29, 2012 - 12:39pm

TA first try-bullish for silver :)


As with this price action there is nothing much to do, today I decided to start reading about Technical Analysis ( for the first time, would You believe that?) as I anyway like to study charts and patterns.

So I immediately came up with a bullish pattern for silver resolving all the problems about June 4th-6th:

Is is called Ascending triangle-definition from

There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

I have overlayed it with Brent crude to see where silver may part with commodities. May be here?

So cheer upwink!

Well, its almost broken before I managed to post it! Must draw faster! USDx moves up with a speed of light-82,55. I wander how much longer FED would accept that.

ivars · May 29, 2012 - 12:41pm

At least this is a solace to

At least this is a solace to me...But I did not trade on it--You know, I could havecrying:) :

Repost 3-last one!

murphy · May 29, 2012 - 12:42pm


Keep the faith brother

In any discussion of the future of Gold, or of the price of Gold, the first thing that must be realized is that Gold is a political metal. In the true meaning of the word, its price is "governed".

This is so for the very simple reason that Gold in its historical role as a currency is fundamentally incompatible with the modern worldwide financial system.

Up until August 15, 1971, there has never in history been an era when no paper currency was linked to Gold. The history of money is replete with instances of coin clipping, printing, debt defaults, and the other attendant ills of currency debasement. In all other eras of history, people could always escape to other currencies, whose Gold backing remained intact. But since 1971, there is no escape because no paper currency has any link to Gold.

All of the economic, monetary, and financial upheaval of the past 30 years is a direct result of this fact.

The global paper currency system is very young. It depends for its continued functioning on the belief that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be repaid. The one thing, above all others, that could shake that faith, and therefore the foundations of the modern financial system itself, is a rise (especially a sharp rise) in the U.S. Dollar price of Gold.

Daily Spot Future $US Gold

With 25, 50, and 200 day Moving Averages
Gold This Week

This chart is based on daily CLOSING prices

(Chart appears here in original analysis)

Gold In Four Major Currencies Since The February 21, 2009 $US High
Currency   Feb 21, 2009   May 18, 2012   Up/Down Percent
US Dollar 1002.20 1591.90 +589.70 +58.84%
Euro 796.00 1249.50 +453.50 +56.97%
Jap. Yen 94410 125842 +31432 +33.29%
Aus. Dollar 1571.60 1618.80 +47.20 +3.00%

The significance of the table above is that it shows the all time high for Gold denominated in what is probably the most representative major "commodity currency" in the world - the Australian Dollar. That high was set on February 20, 2009, a month before the US Fed embarked on QE1 for the express purpose of rescuing the global market for US paper assets.

Gold in terms of the other three major currencies shown in the table has since gone on to set major new highs considerably above the levels reached in February 2009. At the end of July 2011, Gold hit new all time highs in terms of US Dollars, Euros, Canadian Dollars, Pounds and many other currencies. By August 4, 2011, there was a BIG change in the table as the Aussie Dollar Gold price took out its February 2009 high. It maintained those levels until the last week of 2011

When Gold reached its all time high in Aussie Dollar terms in February 2009, the Aussie Dollar was trading at $US 0.6377. This was at the height of the huge US Dollar rally which took place in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers crisis of September/October 2008. The Aussie Dollar gained parity with the US Dollar (for the first time in nearly 30 years) on November 3, 2010, the day that the US Fed officially announced QE2. It then climbed steadily and accelerated in April 2011. On April 29, the Aussie Dollar reached almost $US 1.10. Over the last week of July 2011, it hit that level for a second time. Then the combination of a falling Aussie Dollar and a rampant $US Gold price pushed the $A Gold price into the black on the table above.

Gold in terms of the other three currencies in the table is a long way above the level it reached in February 2009. Gold's percentage gain in Euro terms had almost caught up with its US Dollar gains in late March this year and is doing so again. In Australian Dollars, Gold slipped below its February 2009 levels over the last week of 2011 and did so again in Mid March 2012 and early in the week just ended. At present it shows a very small gain - in stark contrast with the other three currencies in the table. With the Aussie Dollar once again below US Dollar parity, that could change very quickly.

recaptureamerica · May 29, 2012 - 12:44pm

Bought my door

Bought my door Krazy Kat 100oz brick... hope this one is landlocked

binzer · May 29, 2012 - 12:44pm

Seeing as the blinded bulls

Seeing as the blinded bulls here were predicting 1700+ gold and 30+ silver for the June 14 competition, I reckon my 1475/23.90 is looking far more likely.

Dr G · May 29, 2012 - 12:46pm

Morning/afternoon, all. Here

Morning/afternoon, all.

Here are my thoughts. CNBC is reporting that Greece will leave the Euro on 6/18. This will cause the USD to go crazy to the upside. We've seen a bit of this for the last couple of weeks. Dollar above 80 and PMs getting pounded. I think the USD will easily move above 84. Read what Turd posted above, he's got the charts and analysis on where it might top out.

But above 84, there is no way (in my mind) that silver and gold can hold 27.50 and 1550. Just isn't going to happen. I would NOT be shocked to see them at sub 25 and sub 1400 with the USD above 84.

The next FOMC meetings are June 23 and July 31/August 1. I would expect QE then in light of the election in Novemeber. Maybe they can drag it out to Sept 12/13, but I doubt it.

The high USD simply gives them the proper incentive to announce formal QE 3. It will happen. All the cards are lining up nicely for the Fed. They certainly can't do QE with the USD at 75, but they sure can do it without hesitation when it is 84+.

So I think the period between when Greece leaves the Euro (and actually the period starting RIGHT NOW) and when formal QE is announced (which could be a 1 week period or a 5 week period) will be one of the most tremendous stacking opportunities we've seen in a long time.

​Downside weakness exists here due to the weak Euro. It will get weaker (Greece leaving will only stimulate talks and action on behalf of Portugal and Spain and Italy).

Stack it up. If you have funds buy a little each day. If you already have a core position that is large and you are looking to make another large purchase, then watch the Euro/USD and have some patience.

dmanson · May 29, 2012 - 12:46pm

Drop right before Noon

Look at that raid, right on time. The balls on these guys... BTFD. In a month or two we will be kicking ourselves if we didn't buy at these prices. Certainly in a year it will look like a super sale. 

Stratajema · May 29, 2012 - 12:47pm


>>There is SO MUCH STUFF going on behind the scenes. Just BTFD and take delivery!<<

Makes sense for first-time buyers. But the cartel needs to squash the gold price so that those withdrawing funds from Euro banks at least stay in Euros rather than run to gold. The psychology of the sheeple is to withdraw their Euros, see that the price of gold and silver are dropping, fear a loss on a PM purchase, and so stuff the Euros under their mattress.

I say, step back with hands off the controls and evaluate $1,432 as the next entry point. The only risk at that price point could be the depletion or pulling of coin inventory at the LCS.

Dr G · May 29, 2012 - 12:48pm

@stratajema, you posted while

@stratajema, you posted while I was writing mine, but I agree with you completely. Risk would be no coins left at the shop. But I think we are going that low.

@binzer, good call and I fully agree. Many around here will call you a "troll" or slam you, but you are being realistic. Metals will soar and we should all want lower prices before this thing plummets into a free-fall spiral. Those lower prices are beginning now. Take advantage of them.

Mickey · May 29, 2012 - 12:50pm

lack of interest in trading service

might be simple answer-- you have to have some serious money and time and equipment to do this type of trading--my guess too many here work for a living, do not have the capital or the desire to sit perched at screen waiting for changes--

some do

different strokes for different folks.

binzer · May 29, 2012 - 12:51pm

I always have this image in

I always have this image in my mind of zombies moronically repeating BTFD over and over....andthey seem to be the same numbskulls that shout 'get in the hole' when I'm trying to enjoy the golf coverage. 

Loud Noises · May 29, 2012 - 12:51pm

Forgive me

I just can't stand reading these whining, woe is me and my lost money comments anymore. You people sound like a bully stole your lunch and gave you a wedgie. I'm not poking fun here, but it is what it is. Its is totally illogical to expect constant short term gains when you are investing long term for one of the biggest macro events in decades. We talk here about front-running the end of the Keynesian experiement. Not making 1% a day every day buying shiny metals. Please find other things to keep you happy day to day.

I would even go so far as to say that chronic complainers need not worry about stacking for the end of the experiment. First and foremost they need to re-program their brains to a different mindset.

Adman Platinum_Investor · May 29, 2012 - 12:56pm

I'm with you Platinum_Investor

I agree, this is just getting demoralizing. I have never second guessed myself this much since I began purchasing PM's in 2009. I think it's time to reevaluate our premises and start being honest with ourselves. Perhaps the bull market in metals has run it's course; at least for the foreseeable future.

Barth Vader Stratajema · May 29, 2012 - 12:57pm

€ and PMs

once again, after gold makes a move so does the €.

i am taking delivery of my euros not to get cought up in a bank holiday and saving it to buy my next 100g gold bar. Cash is second best to PMs i think.

But the price hardly moves in €.

I bought my last just after the downgrade of the US (dip or not, that I can't or won't remember) for €4007,-.

Here we are now with gold way lower($), but so the euro and a 100g bar no goes for about €4100,-

Give us in 'yurp' also the FD!!!

LOUP-GAROU · May 29, 2012 - 1:01pm

Keeping the Faith

Thanks Turd,As a long time stacker from the late 70's I have had my doubts sometimes but I always remember what my great grand dad told me when he gave me my first morgan dollar for my birthday," boy don't let anybody tell you different,this is real money!" that was in 1967.

He was a great man that fought in both world wars and was always talking about the cost of wars, most of all the human toll and then the money that it took to pay for it.

With all of what is going on in the world it is not hard to for me to keep the faith, yes the price may go down short term but if you take a look at the big picture it does not take rocket science to know what is the right thing to do! GET OUT OF DEBT, invest in hard assets, take delivery of Real Money!

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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