With today being sort of a non-event because of gold option expiration, I've spent nearly the entire morning on the phone. All of a sudden it's 1:00 EDT and I realize that you need a new thread!
So, here you go. Again, though today looked promising for a while, it instead devolved into simple, algorithmic nonsense as the HFT trolled for stops and The Cartel painted the tape for minimum option pain. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
Speaking of boring, you've read here incessantly about the lack of volume and trading interest on the Comex post-MFG, particularly in silver. Well, check this out. Below is the change in price and change on total OI for silver for the past two weeks. Boring and strange at the same time. Instead of giving you my own interpretation of the data, I encourage you to place your own hypothesis in the comments.
Date Price Change Total OI
5/8/12 -0.66 to 29.46 113,549
5/9/12 -0.22 113,479
5/10/12 -0.06 112,558
5/11/12 -0.29 112,393
5/14/12 -0.54 113,546
5/15/12 -0.27 114,208
5/16/12 -0.88 113,663
5/17/12 +0.83 113,766
5/18/12 +0.69 112,914
5/21/12 -0.39 113,893
5/22/12 -0.14 to 28.18 113,647
Here are some charts. First up, look at gold. In the short term, the area around 1565 and the 10-day moving average is your center line of the range. Above there, and you've got a shot at 1600-1605 and a breakout. Below there, we must defend 1525-1530.
And these longer-term charts show you why I'm so confident that the low for gold is in.
In silver, though I'm confident that $26.50 will continue to function as support and a low, time still remains before we can get excited for a true breakout. In the words of Axl Rose, we need a little more patience.
Lastly, ZH has been emphatically recommending that we watch this "Frontline" video on MFingGlobal. I give it a big thumbs-up, too. It's about 20 minutes and it will piss you off. At the end, I found myself screaming at and cursing The Mullet for his inaction and his doofus-like, aw shucks attitude toward the whole affair. Ted Butler openly called for him, Gensler and all the rest to be fired yesterday. I wish I had the power to make it happen.
That's all for now. TF