Thursday Gold Charts

Thu, May 24, 2012 - 1:24pm

With today being sort of a non-event because of gold option expiration, I've spent nearly the entire morning on the phone. All of a sudden it's 1:00 EDT and I realize that you need a new thread!

So, here you go. Again, though today looked promising for a while, it instead devolved into simple, algorithmic nonsense as the HFT trolled for stops and The Cartel painted the tape for minimum option pain. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Speaking of boring, you've read here incessantly about the lack of volume and trading interest on the Comex post-MFG, particularly in silver. Well, check this out. Below is the change in price and change on total OI for silver for the past two weeks. Boring and strange at the same time. Instead of giving you my own interpretation of the data, I encourage you to place your own hypothesis in the comments.

Date Price Change Total OI

5/8/12 -0.66 to 29.46 113,549

5/9/12 -0.22 113,479

5/10/12 -0.06 112,558

5/11/12 -0.29 112,393

5/14/12 -0.54 113,546

5/15/12 -0.27 114,208

5/16/12 -0.88 113,663

5/17/12 +0.83 113,766

5/18/12 +0.69 112,914

5/21/12 -0.39 113,893

5/22/12 -0.14 to 28.18 113,647

Here are some charts. First up, look at gold. In the short term, the area around 1565 and the 10-day moving average is your center line of the range. Above there, and you've got a shot at 1600-1605 and a breakout. Below there, we must defend 1525-1530.

And these longer-term charts show you why I'm so confident that the low for gold is in.

In silver, though I'm confident that $26.50 will continue to function as support and a low, time still remains before we can get excited for a true breakout. In the words of Axl Rose, we need a little more patience.

Lastly, ZH has been emphatically recommending that we watch this "Frontline" video on MFingGlobal. I give it a big thumbs-up, too. It's about 20 minutes and it will piss you off. At the end, I found myself screaming at and cursing The Mullet for his inaction and his doofus-like, aw shucks attitude toward the whole affair. Ted Butler openly called for him, Gensler and all the rest to be fired yesterday. I wish I had the power to make it happen.

Watch Six Billion Dollar Bet on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.

Watch Six Billion Dollar Bet on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.

That's all for now. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 24, 2012 - 1:28pm


Thanks Turd. Bit of solid TA - just what the doctor ordered.

May 24, 2012 - 1:33pm

Boo hoo I'm two

Boo hoo I'm two

May 24, 2012 - 1:41pm

Nigel- post lunch!

and from The Daily Bell

In answer to a question at the end of his commentary, he makes the point that a devalued drachma would certainly raise the cost of imports for Greece but it would also encourage innovation. The lower the drachma went and the less it bought outside, the more people would attempt to create local alternatives.

Inevitably, some of these alternatives might find a market OUTSIDE Greece. Thus it is that monetary competition fosters innovation. There is no substitute for it.

In fact, it is good to see this sort of point being made, as it is a free-market assertion. The idea is that people are not potted plants and that they will not sit idly by while their livelihoods are destroyed.

This gets to the nub of arguments currently being floated by pro-EU bureaucrats and officials. The argument is being made that Greece would be hit with a perfect storm of hyperinflation. But Farage's answer to that is that people take what Austrian-economist Ludwig von Mises called "human action."

People will make their own way in the world, and are especially apt to do so if they are not barred from doing so by laws, potential imprisonment, monetary fines, etc. All things being equal, most people are able to survive with the help of family, friends and community.

This is not the message being sent, of course. The pro-EU controlled mainstream media is in full cry over the horror of a Greek withdrawal from the EU – or at least from the euro. If Greece does it successfully, sure it will encourage others to do it, too.

Yes, those within the EU are deadly afraid of a successful Greek exit. Iceland has effectively made such an exit in its own way and the result has been a virtual news blackout on that tiny country's successes.

Here's hoping that Greeks get a chance to try to reclaim their national heritage – and a floating drachma. As Farage puts its, if the Greeks continue to stay in the EU with the euro they shall be "totally destroyed."

May 24, 2012 - 1:41pm

Free Silver From the SLA

The desperation of the banktards is in the air! They've got to do everything they can to keep silver and gold down so the sheeple don't awaken to the truth about their paper oblivion. Get a free dime at Silver Liberation Army forum and chat!

The first 250 people to subscribe to and make five relevant posts receives a silver dime in the mail!

How to
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Dr G
May 24, 2012 - 1:43pm

Wow. Price movement started

Wow. Price movement started good but ugh. Gold now red. Just no sustainability to these movements.

You guys know me--I'm looking to buy at prices lower than these. I hope silver tests 26.50 (and I think it will).

Posting from a ride at Disneyland!

May 24, 2012 - 1:45pm

More Open Interest

Just to continue on your silver open interest, yesterday the July contract price dropped 0.66 while total open interest went up 458 contracts to 114,105. June Gold dropped $28.20 while open interest went up 5975 to 441,618. It's not liquidation causing the recent drops as open interest continues to rise on most of the down days. It's a joke whenever I hear the MSM talk about liquidation or hedge funds blowing up causing the declines. Since 4/30, gold OI has risen over 33k contracts while the price has dropped over $115. We have had only 4 up days during that period. I wish someone on the MSM would explain that to me.

May 24, 2012 - 1:48pm

Groundhog day

Maybe the algos are bored, stuck in a loop? Death by a thousand cuts? Nibbling away trying to find something?

Edit to add: Perhaps there is only mild manipulation occurring, and the markets have no idea how to act/react..The calm before the next storm of delivery dates, euro-madness, and etc.

Since drinking the kool aid is mentioned frequently here

"The concept of "drinking the Kool-Aid" came from an event in 1978 where over 900 people died in a place called Jonestown in Guyana. Most of them supposedly died from drinking cyanide laced Kool-Aid. While questions have been raised as to the voracity of these reports, the term drinking the Kool-Aid has become synonymous with people who trust the sources of their information without question. I will stretch this out a bit and make the claim that Kool-Aid drinkers are those who trust anyone or any institution without question and do as they are told because of that trust.

Drinking the Kool-Aid kills. It zombifies the human being and removes its ability to blossom into an independent, thoughtful, free living organism able to determine its own fate. It removes free will. It turns a person into a robotic entity that will follow the will of its master right up to the point where its master causes its self destruction. So, who are the Kool-Aid drinkers today? Who are the next in line to have their strings pulled right up to the point where they self destruct?"

unthought known
May 24, 2012 - 1:49pm

did somebody say Axl?

Guns N' Roses - Patience
May 24, 2012 - 1:52pm

Guns 'n Roses

Just when I thought ol' TF couldn't get any cooler, he throws in a mid-'90s GNR reference. For you whippersnappers out there, here's the song in question.

Video unavailable
May 24, 2012 - 1:52pm

New Film out TODAY

For those interested;

The new film "End of the Road" ~ How money was destroyed.

Can be found at

I have yet to view it, but have been waiting for it's release. If the previous work is any indication, it should be fascinating!

Turd, thanks muchly for the charts and every little thing you do here.


Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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