Let's Play "Who Said It?"

As you've probably figured out, I recently received another shipment of hats, so we might as well give away another one.

So we begin today with a game of "Who Said It?" The first person to correctly identify the author of these thoughts will win a genuine, authentic and autographed Turd Ferguson hat. Of course, with google and the like, this contest may end fairly quickly but so be it. All I ask is that you read the entire passage before entering your guess.

"Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which - through a complex series of steps - the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss of value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.

​In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its illegal, as was done in the case of gold (in the 1930s). If everyone decided, for example, to convert all of his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payments for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. Therefore, the financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

​This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

​OK, have at it. TF


rl999's picture

HP to cut 25k jobs

"Hewlett-Packard will announce another round of substantial job cuts Wednesday afternoon in an effort to streamline its teetering PC and services businesses, a source familiar with the plans told Fortune.

The layoffs will be "in the ballpark" of 25,000 workers, the source said, which would amount to about 7% of HP's global workforce."

Link to CNN article


Rui's picture

"1% and 2% rule" in play

Remember that great observation by GATA? Gold went up 2% the day post-FOMC last week, and that usually would bring EE into action. Sure enough it's happening now.

Colonel Angus's picture

For more on Greenspan...

...and what he was really about, I recommend Fred Sheehan's book, Panderer to Power.


Greenspan never had any principles. He just wanted to be important or near to those who are important. Interesting thesis, and it fits well with what we observe from Greenspan.

That being said, stick to your principles. Stack PMs, get prepared for the end of the Keynesian experiment, and vote for true champions of liberty. Don't be Alan Greenspan!

LMR's picture

Bill Murphy's take on yesterdays market-May 22 – Gold $1576.40 d

May 22 – Gold $1576.40 down $12 - Silver $28.17 down 13 cents

2%... 1%... FLAT... DOWN HARD / BF: Stinking Up The Place

"We have more credit exposure than other people, and we think when we put that credit exposure on, it was actually very good," said Dimon, 56. "We bought some triple-A securities that we think are as good as gold." … CEO and Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon


Sometimes I feel like Sherlock Holmes, and at other times like Chief Inspector Clouseau on his bad days. Today, it is the latter. My first instinct yesterday that the bizarre, singular weakness in silver was a signal by The Gold Cartel that gold would be under pressure in the very near future(Just what Andrew Maguire explained to the CFTC more than two years ago). But then, with the late action and strength in the shares, I went the other way … that the share strength was the real signal for the day and that The Gold Cartel changed their very short term game plan. Yes, I know, sometimes there are better things to do during a day, but this is part of what I do … and while wasting time here and there, it has helped me figure out the gold and silver markets for over a decade. But, not today … at least as far as what The Gold Cartel had in mind all along!

When I woke up this morning and saw gold down more than $10, I second guessed myself … that I should have stuck with what the silver weakness really meant for gold this Tuesday. That was right on, for about an hour. But, abracadabra, gold then went up on the day, with silver more than 25 cents higher, and the shares continuing their surge up. So, just as the signs yesterday were wishy-washy, so was the action early today early today as to what The Gold Cartel was really up to. In the strangest of ways, both of the anal analyses about yesterday’s gold/silver/shares activity were on the money to some degree, for a while anyway….

That was written three hours ago. Gold has fallen apart and silver is now down on the day. Sometimes, it does not pay to be creative when dealing with The Gold Cartel. Being an optimist, like I usually am, often does not pay off. Understanding the cabal’s historic market manipulation drill does, as per my smarter colleagues…

When gold was on its butt early on, a Café member pro of pros sent me this:

2%... 1%... FLAT... DOWN HARD... ?

Looks like James Mc's "surge control" algorithm is operative again over the past several days (Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday).

It was not so fast at first for "Richard", but he was right on the money by the close.

James Mc has had this garbage Gold Cartel market manipulation crap nailed for what seems like an eternity…

Cartel rope-a-dope

While last Thursday's 3% rally was exciting the aftermath is textbook cartel. Other than the slight twist of +3% instead of +2% they turned to their old rope-a-dope routine, which was 3%, (Thursday) 1%, (Friday) steady (Monday) and finally down hard. (plan A attack at 3:00 AM today) Once I saw Friday being capped at 1% I was resigned to the probability of the cartel's tried and true method of quelling excitement. Even when gold briefly escapes the boundaries of 2% and 1% they are there to isolate, and frustrate fresh longs correctly seeing a breakout. If history repeats there's a 99% probability that there's no way in hell they will allow any claw-back rally today, and your time will be better spent going to the gym or sorting out your sock drawer.

Prior to last Thursday the last time gold had a gain exceeding 2% (meaningfully) was way back on October 25th of last year. Prior to that the last one was September 2nd. That's over 6 months of gold being imprisoned in market-rigging daily limits. From December 29, 2011 to February 27th, 2012 gold rallied $268, or +17.5%, without the benefit of a single day exceeding 2%. Oddly enough (or not) the average weekly gain during that period was also +2%. Anybody not really understanding cartel behavior would have never guessed gold had been charging higher, which is exactly what MOPE is all about.

The worldwide paper money creation is adding hundreds of dollars, Euros, or whatever you denominate gold in to the true price of gold every month. The fictitious number that appears every time you hit the refresh button on "Kitco gold chart" is a figment of the bankers illusion. At some point a $10,000 POG cannot be achieved within the constraints of 1% daily gains. If the cartel has any hope of exerting continued controls on gold an expanded daily limit of +5% would be highly advisable.
James Mc

The gold open interest rose 5638 contracts to 435,213, a new recent high by a good margin. The Gold Cartel is going all out to stomp all over gold for ALL the reasons presented to you for some time. Same with silver, as its OI went up 979 contracts to 113,893.

Two of my favorite people out there are Adam Fleming and James Turk. They are two of the finest men you’ll ever meet and have both been huge GATA supporters for over a decade. What class acts! Our Gold Rush 21 conference, with the price of gold at $436, was truly legendary and one of the most enjoyable experiences of my life…

Gold Rush 21 photos:



Adam Fleming And James Turk On Precious Metals And Mining

http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durdenSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2012 08:04 -0400

Adam Fleming, Chairman of Wits Gold and Fleming Family & Partners (yes, related to Ian Fleming of James Bond game), discusses the gold bull market with GoldMoney's Chairman James Turk. Topics include metal price action, the eurozone's debt crisis, and mining in South Africa. Both men think that we are the "in the foothills" of a long precious metals bull market, and that the gold price is in some ways cheaper than it was back when they spoke at GATA's Dawson City conference in 2005, owing to all the quantitative easing – or more bluntly, money printing – that central banks have engaged in since the financial crisis of 2008.

Adam points out that gold bull markets usually result in a 1:1 Dow/Gold ratio, something that he expects to see happen in the coming years. In other words, it's still a great time to buy gold. Adam is pessimistic about the eurozone, and thought plans for European Monetary Union were delusional, on account of the differences in culture and political economy between different European Union countries. He also discusses his mining experience in South Africa, and why – contrary to much negative press the country gets – it is actually still a great place to live and work. He expects companies to increase their mining investments in the Witwatersrand Basin, and thinks that this region will remain the world's premier gold mining location. This video was recorded on May 18 2012 in Jersey, British Channel Islands.


Behavioral Finance

*… at its finest…

European Central Bank secretly distributes infinite money

Submitted by cpowell on 07:15AM ET Tuesday, May 22, 2012. Section: Daily Dispatches

10:10a ET Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Financial Times reports (see below) that the European Central Bank has secretly distributed E100 billion to Greek banks and billions more in secret to other European banks and, in doing so, has gained great "sway over eurozone politicians" -- you know, the people actually elected to run their countries.

Infinite secret money is infinite secret power, and it's great that the FT is interested in this aspect of central bank secrecy. Is it too much to hope that the FT someday will show similar interest in the secrecy imposed by central banks on their interventions in the gold market, interventions detailed by GATA here?:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

And then we have…

Secret E100 Billion in Aid Props Up Greek Banks

By Ralph Atkins
Financial Times, London
Monday, May 21, 2012

There has been no official announcement. No terms or conditions have been disclosed. But Greece's banking system is being propped up by an estimated E100 billion or so of emergency liquidity provided by the country's central bank -- approved secretly by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. If Greece were to leave the eurozone, the immediate cause might be an ECB decision to pull the plug.

Extensive use of "emergency liquidity assistance" (ELA) to help banks in the weakest economies has been one of the less-noticed features of the eurozone crisis. Separate from normal supplies of liquidity and meant originally as a temporary facility for national authorities to use when banks hit problems, ELA proved a lifesaver for the financial system Ireland and is now even more so in Greece. As such, it has given the ECB -- which has ultimate control over the facility -- considerable power to determine countries' fates…



*The yield of the 10 yr T note rose to the stunning meager amount of 1.77%.

*DOW up early for no reason. Gold down for no reason. PPT and Gold Cartel take a bow. That was this morning. The DOW and DOG have now gone negative and falling fast.

*Perhaps more Chief Inspector stuff, but yesterday with Facebook in the toilet, the shares of Apple really surged??? Today with Facebook still reeling, JPM rose 5%. Will leave it at that...

No I won't, as the US stock market is sinking and under siege at the moment. The BF operators, Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group, and PPT are struggling. The Facebook issue might be bigger than we think in terms of the public confidence in the market. As you know, my smeller tells me this JP Morgan issue is a BIG deal for the market ... and so is the over hyping of Facebook.

My bet is the BF operation went too far this time. We shall know if that is the case within weeks.

That was written only 15 minutes ago. The DOW, after being up 50, went down 50 and was in TANK mode, when it mysteriously recovered to end the day in flat territory, for no apparent reason, yet AGAIN. I ended my presentation in Las Vegas explaining that all our markets were manipulated and to watch for late DOW rallies for NO APPARENT REASON. Today's market action had PLANET GATA analysis written all over it.

THIS IS GOING TO END VERY BADLY, unfortunately. The market manipulators are out of control and gone WAY too far.

WHEN WILL ANYONE OUTSIDE OF THE GATA CAMP get into the nitty gritty of really how our stock market operates in Amercia? The sickness of the whole deal is beyond comprehension. What we are dealing with here is Enron, Madoff, and MF Global TIMES 100 PLUS. WATCH!!!

Both the XAU and HUI were very firm early and then tanked substantially, despite the strength in the overall market. The XAU lost 1.60 to 150.78 and the HUI sank 4.65 to 405.60.

Gold was first hit this morning with the standard PLAN A Gold Cartel attack when they reported for work at 3 AM NY time. Then they went to their PLAN B following a weak PM Fix of $1582.50 ... then to their PLAN C follow-up mauling in the Access Market, as gold traded as low as $1566. All of what we have seen the past two days was explained to the attendees at the Las Vegas Money show. I suggested, if they were interested, to watch how The Gold Cartel operates … that it was that obvious. Sure didn’t take long for GATA’s case against the cabal forces to become evident.

Financially, this is still a horror show, at least if you have your money in many of the gold/silver shares. That is just a fact of life. Yes, a historic move to the upside is coming, so hanging on is key. However, when? I wish I knew. In January at the Cambridge House in Vancouver the venerable JP Schumacher, who gave Ferdi Lips' speech at Gold Rush 21 because Ferdi was ill, said he thought the shares would be dead until fall … and he is a gold fund manager. That assessment has been right on the money so far.

With Facebook, JPM, and Europe under siege, we must be prepared for ANYTHING in the short term.


Bill Murphy


Groaner's picture

Headline.. FB fraud tough to prove..

of course it is since absolutely no one is or will be indited...except for a slap, a fine which is the cost of doing business.

Like Paul Craig Roberts said.. " The US is the most corrupt government in all of human history"

boatman's picture


big time miss low yesterday on even a dissappointing expected earnings #.

gold drops past 1534 we will see 1521 again on ewave analysis........yeah, i know idiotwave.

Groaner's picture

Yeah GATA tries real hard and says good stuff.

But its like swinging a wet noodle at Goliath.. it doesnt really matter, everyone knows it.but nothing happens or will untill they go bust.

exiledbear's picture

Inflation is basically a tax, a regressive tax

So anyone who's on the left-leaning side of things, should be opposed to it, on mere policy principles. Of course, it's a tax that is easy to implement and doesn't cause the same sort of tax revolts that usually happen when you increase taxes. Everybody likes having more money in their pocketses. Except when they don't.

Death and taxes. Eh, so it's a tax. That's not really the problem. The problem is the massive side effects and changes in behavior that inflation (especially hyperinflation) causes.

Read the accounts of Weimar, the rampant prostitution, the drug use, the poverty, the crime, etc. People adapt to it, and like with a equation that has multiple solutions, they'll find the solution that suits them, not the gubmint or society.

But none of this matters anymore, they made their decision in 2008 and they're trying to have it both ways at once. But with the debt growing at 1% every 3-4 weeks, the stock market imploding, they can't even paint the tape on an IPO anymore - even the paper side will spiral out of the grasp soon.

Hold on. Hold. On.

Urban Roman's picture

FB and AG, doing the luge

Facebook Lawsuits Start Flying: Targets Include Zuckerberg, Morgan Stanley

Maybe we'll be seeing that Ag-FB crossover pretty soon ... I'm guessing FB will win the race to the bottom.

Big Buffalo's picture

New Plan

No more buying stock symbols . . .we have no idea how this Euro thing is going to affect the markets. I going to stack some FRN's and have them at the ready for when Ben does announce some sort of money printing, be it in June, July, August....

No more catching knives Dow could be 12000, 11000, 10000, -6000, no one knows......we do know when the the printer is ramped up...then this shit is full steam ahead....and I for one will not be sitting there with my thumb up my a** saying . . . .I wish i had dry powder.

(I'll still be buying gold coins)

SilverWealth's picture


the dollar is the world's dominant currency. If it rallies to 85 look out.

Gold and Silver are in downtrends, not uptrends. The more they test and retest the lows the weaker that support becomes IMO.

Gold can easily go to 1410 if it breaks this area. Many traders will look to short it.

Silver will follow. These are considered risk/on assets, not safe havens. We are not in that phase yet.

As long as the dollar rallies on whatever news and this time around its the Euro, there is no support for metals imo regardless of COT and forensic stuff.

Groaner's picture

Good idea!

I just looked behind me and I couldnt find it?

I lost my ass.

croc987's picture

Alan Greenspan 1966

That one was too easy.  

Silver down 3% today.  Why would that be? Paper price rigging, short covering attempt by morgue, liquidation from margin calls on banksters, deflation, dollar strengthening due to implosion of euro, Eastern coalition manipulation, or all of the above?  We have seen all these reasons given for silver price declines lately.  Anyway, who cares?  Lower paper prices should fan the flames of demand like a blast furnace.  Then we will see a default on the Crimex and LBMA that much sooner.  Basic supply and demand (not all the other noise), IMHO, will be the factors that cause the silver price to skyrocket.    

Lower paper price = massive demand = total exhaustion of physical supply = default and failure to deliver on LBMA = default on Crimex = physical silver price to stratosphere. Or am I missing something?  Seems we should be cheering for every paper price decrease.

esentrik's picture


I knew it was Greenspan after the first sentence.

A great essay that I refer to friends all the time. I think it was written in 1966. Too bad he sold his soul and started pushing fiat.

Mickey's picture

My "problem"

I have holdings like CEF and SLW from a few years back which large taxable gains and I did not want to sell and take the tax hits. Partly because I did not think we would see a 15-28% decline.

Bought some puts and played with DUST calls which has offset the losses (reduced gains) to some extent.

Now I have started buying NUGT thinking its basically a permanent option on miners and assuming the miners do come back  there is some nice leverage.

While PM can definitely go lower I certainly can only pick the bottom if I am lucky. So my attitude is accumulate more here and sit on it. Futz around with things like ZSL or puts on gld and slv  or dust calls to protect a bit on downside but get ready  and be ready for the next big  move up.

Anybody trading the weekly gld and slv puts? If so, the speed of the option price changes are extraordinary, no? A $2 buck put option can change by 10-20 cents measured in ticks.

And to be selling the weekly puts you have to have nerves of steel in this market condition.

MollyRatchet's picture

@ tmosley ....

I am starting to believe the words that you have been saying for a while now regarding paper and physical separation ..

Looking rather obvious at this time  ... let's see how things play out over time.

Keep the posts coming please ... good reinforcement !!


Mickey's picture

My biggest concern

is we have an event and we wake up here in the good old US of A and see gold up something significant and the train has left the station. So you have to have at least a few toes in the water to cover that situation.

yes--I know there is downside. But borrowing from John Embry-downside is measured in a few hundred (not his 50-100 necessarily) and upside in a few thousand.

and perhaps more important upside measured in survival.

Groaner's picture

this is 2008 all over again.

look at the chart how the metals got hit during that market sell off

gold down $40!

Be Prepared's picture

Fermat’s Last Theorem...

...when we see that it is improbable for any number which is a power greater than the second to be written as the sum of two like powers.  The seemingly simplest theorem took over 300 years to prove....  we will face the most complex problems presented in the most perplexingly inane ways because obfuscation, by TPTB, is by design.  The facts of our reality are crystal clear for those who dare to pierce the veil and allow their mind's eye to confirm what their intuition has already told them.  

To know something is a powerful burden for with it... few will understand and even less will confirm.  The walls of destruction may stay merely in the virtual realm, and I hope truly for that to be the case, but the pain will be real and the continual running from the cure of our ills is only making the longevity of this era last longer.

I, for one, am glad to be able to learn more and to continue my path of preparation.  Take heart that each day, whether the storm is ragging or it is as still as glass, is to be cherished and measured by the trueness of what you give to others.  This community, that Turd has so graciously allowed to grow, is the brightest gold of my ventures.  There are so few of us that are truly awake.... I count only two people I know, out of hundreds, that are actively aware to the impending train wreck.  So for all that we agree, disagree.... see or don't... Turdville is unique and a great port in this storm of the century.  :-)

SilverFocker's picture

Something amiss

In these parts gas prices were starting to decline .....2 days ago the price at the pump was 3.50 a gallon, yesterday the price bumped to 3.79. With oil still on a down-run, WTF did a refinery blow up that I missed or is this just a hollow-day pocket stuffer?

Really-'s picture

Couldn't Resist

.....buying a roll of moose.  That was a "want" buy because I'm partial to them.  I'm really thinking of holding off on anymore buying until silver hits 25 or less.  Like a lot of people, my concern is that the dollar is looking like the best option in a worldwide downturn.  Add to that the fact that from now until election day, everything possible is going to be done to "hype" our economy.  I appreciate this site and everyone's input, not just Turd's.  I like hearing different opinions on the future of PMs.  As long as contrary opinions are voiced in a civil manner, I hope they will be respected.  The same way that Turd should receive our respect for his guidance and providing us this site.

Barth Vader's picture

Alan Greenspan but i see i am

Alan Greenspan

but i see i am already late to the party :)

Dr G's picture

Posting from Disneyland and

Posting from Disneyland and hoping for silver with a 26 handle soon so I can buy, buy, buy while the kids are on all of these crazy rides. 

LaMachinna's picture

Outlook on future/preps

Hello all comrades.  Was wondering....is anyone feeling any new/renewed or lack of sense of urgency given the recent environment we are in.  I can't get past the fbook news being such a huge distraction to what the real problem is.  That's in addition to MFGlobal, JPM, crash in commodities, europe on fire, market tanking, etc.  

BP, great post by the way.

Comrades, what are your thoughts?  And, of course, Turd our humble correspondent, you are such a blessing and am so thankful for this site and what it means.  We owe you much.  Thank you.


Dr G's picture

Mickey, this isn't be end of

Mickey, this isn't be end of the world, just deflation before they continue open printing. That, coupled with dollar strength due to weak Euro. The train isn't leaving the station. Don't you remember when everybody was convinced that was the case as silver went from 35 to 50? Look at it now. 

NEVER underestimate their ability to kick the can down the road. Buy what you can when you can but don't spend money that you need for paying bills on PMs. 

Dr G's picture

SilverWealth nailed it with a

SilverWealth nailed it with a great post. The dollar is strengthening and the metals are in a year long downtrend. Caution and patience will be well rewarded. 

azzatack's picture

I thought I was fighting the good fight

I know for most, PMs are held as security in the event of financial meltdown, but I exchange some of my fiat for PMs at least as a place to save while I scrape enough money together for a deposit on a house.

I'm not seeking an investment and to make more money, I just wanted a place to preserve my wealth while I saved for a deposit on a tiny box to live in. In London I'm very much priced out of the housing market unless I'm diligent enough to spend several years saving. The alternative was to keep my savings in a bank at less than 3% interest and watch it inflate away.

I guess in my historical research I was too wet behind the ears to consider that the market could be manipulated to this extent. So for me, the paper price does matter in the medium term and I'm not part of the 'bring on the dips' fan group - all my dry powder is accounted for.

It now seems that I'm secretly hoping for QE3 (bring it on) as this is the only thing that will cause PMs to rise in the short term; however, this goes against all the reasons I bought PMs for in the first place and surely this puts me on the wrong side of the good fight?

It's all very confusing.

Rowley's picture

@ SilverWealth Agree

Gold and Silver are not safe havens right now. I would expect more price action give EU and everything going on, but this clearly isn't last year. Right now, money is going into the Bond market. Every PM rally we've had is quickly sold off. Long term bullish, short term is one angry bear.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Regarding today


Still playing out just like last Wednesday. Not saying we'll get an immediate bounce like last week, too, but all that seems to be happening is an intra-week double bottom and a draw back in of the spec shorts who covered last week.

They are about to be fleeced again. Of this, I am certain. In the interim, the only real risk is to active traders. There exists a real possibility that the shorts will be allowed to gun the stops at and below 1520. IF this were to happen, a FINAL REACTIVE LOW between 1450 and 1470 would be likely. Be on the lookout for this.

In the end, however, it doesn't make a rat's ass bit of difference. The world is undergoing tremendous, seismic changes as I type and through the remaining balance of 2012. Very soon, $27 silver and $1550 gold will be but vague, distant memories.

Michael222's picture

Let's Play

In Cobra it is said. I do not remember his name anymore...

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