Mon, May 21, 2012 - 11:00am

Looks like it's time to add a new acronym.

As discussed here ad nauseam for the past several weeks, our current battle is against the spec shorts, both large and small. These momentum-following, bandwagon-jumping leeches were the primary culprits in driving price all the way down to $1528 and $27. After the initial squeeze on Thursday, the heat was turned up even higher on Friday. Overnight and earlier today, these HFTers tried to push things back down but have since been stymied on the Comex. Let's hope this continues but don't expect them to give up easily.

Over the weekend, Trader Dan pointed out that gold had moved back above its 10-day moving average. This is step one in alleviating the pressure and flipping the WOPRs to "buy" from "sell". Step two will be getting above the 20-day near 1615. He's right about this. Remember, many WOPRs are programmed to run off of technical signals so moving back above key moving averages will help to halt the barrage of sell orders generated by the downside momentum. https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/gold-continues-its-bounce.html

I'm seeing chart resistance in that general area, too. Gold held support quite nicely earlier today near $1585 and has since rebounded nearly $10. I suspect that we'll continue to drift around here between 1585 and 1600 for a while, maybe into tomorrow or even Wednesday. I suspect, though, that another surge is coming that will drive price through resistance of 1600-1605 and take it up near the 20-day that Dan mentioned, near 1615. Chart resistance will enter again near 1625.

In silver, price has clearly broken out of the nasty and brutal downtrend channel that had contained it for days. Now, it just needs a spark to begin spooking the weak-handed shorts. It may simply be that gold strength will spill over into silver and drag it higher. Regardless, I firmly believe that the recovery process has begun and I expect silver to begin basing between 29 and 30 very soon. From that "staging area", silver will eventually mount a breakout move toward Battle Royale II.

That's it for now as it's almost 11:00 am EDT. You need a new thread and I've got a bunch of other stuff to do. We are about a week away from launching the new, subscription podcast site. I'm really excited about how it is turning out and I can't wait to offer it to you. Besides near-daily podcasts from yours truly, the site will also offer webinars and conference calls with some of the biggest names in metals. There will be plenty of in-depth interviews, too, where members will be able to submit questions. (That should be fun surprise) Anyway, I'll have more details as we get closer to launch and I hope you'll consider supporting the site. Revenues generated there will allow me to keep TFMR completely as is (FREE) and they will also help fund a possible "Turdapalooza".

Have a great day!! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


tpbeta · May 21, 2012 - 11:03am


My arse. Third 8-(

Colonel Angus · May 21, 2012 - 11:06am

Seconds away...from being first

After the big FUTF of the past week, we need to raise a little FUSS. Before it is over, we might even need a FUBM. And if that happens, everyone around here might be getting FUBAR with a few drinks of choice.

BrentLawrence · May 21, 2012 - 11:07am


Looking at a lot of metal sites this last downward pressure was kicking lots of people out, i.e. they were selling their physical just because the price was stagnant and dropping for so long. They just got beat down. I have seen these runs before and holding steady seems like the way to go. We haven't hit the really big moves of a collapsing economy yet. THAT would be the time to sell.

squib · May 21, 2012 - 11:08am

Thanks again

Thank s for all you do for people Turd.

Keep up the good work.

murphy · May 21, 2012 - 11:10am


would that be f** you short squeezers?

murphy · May 21, 2012 - 11:11am

I was thinking...





murphy · May 21, 2012 - 11:13am


I tried to edit it but my access was denied.

SV · May 21, 2012 - 11:14am

There Will Be Reversal

Gold stalled on Monday as did silver, unable to early on confirm the reversal from Thursday and Friday of last week. The news which might have signaled the turn around was a decline in the Philly Fed Index as well as the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting, which have stoked to flame of Quantitative Easing incoming. This week we should keep an eye on U.S. durable goods numbers, China's manufacturing PMI, U.S. new and existing home sales, Japan's trade balance and the German business climate. Greece and Spain also will likely be in the news, if all hell is blown loose with an introduction of Quantitative Easing in Iceland. 


Dr G · May 21, 2012 - 11:14am

Turdapalooza sounds fun.

Turdapalooza sounds fun.

BUDDHA PRINCESS · May 21, 2012 - 11:19am

US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Commodity prices are on the upswing to start the trading week as risk sentiment mounts a cautious recovery after three consecutive weeks of aggressive selling. In the absence of top-tier economic data or significant Eurozone-linked news flow, the catalyst appears to have come by way of supportive overnight comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiaobao, who said Beijing will maintain an active fiscal policy focused on stabilizing economic growth. The remarksstoked hopes that China will undertake stimulus measures to boost its own performance and by extension that of the global economy at large.

Looking ahead, the absence of major scheduled event risk through the end of US trading hours suggests the corrective advance is likely to continue. Indeed, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, arguing for a near-term upside scenario for growth-geared crude oil andcopper prices. Gold and silver likewise stand to gain if the rebound in the risk space dents safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. With that in mind, disappointment in the largely fruitless G8 summit over the weekend is likely to keep a lid on the festivities considering none of the headwinds battering risky assetsrecently have materially changed.

S&P 500 – Prices are finding intraday support above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 1286.60, with a bounce from here seeing initial resistance at 1313.00 marked by the 50% boundary. Alternatively, a break lower exposes the 76.4% level at 1253.90.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $91.48 // -1.08 // -1.17%– As with the S&P 500, prices are staging an intraday recovery from support at 90.49 to challenge resistance at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low. A break above this boundary exposes the February 2 low at 95.41. Alternatively, a break of support targets 88.55.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1592.99 // +18.72 // +1.19%

 As we suspected last week, prices recovered after putting in a Spinning Top candlestick above support in the 1532.45-1522.50 area, marked by the September 26 and December 29 spike lows. The 1600/oz figure is now in play, with resistance there reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1599.17. A break above these boundaries exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1616.23. Near-term support is marked by the 38.2% retracement at 1582.10.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

​Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.74 // +0.70 // +2.51%

Prices are testing resistance at 28.70 after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 27.06. A break higher exposes the next upside barrier at 28.70. Alternatively, a reversal through near-term support on a daily closing basis opens the door for a descent to the 26.05-15 area.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Aim_Higher_as_Risky_Assets_Mount_Relief_Rally_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Aim Higher as Risky Assets Mount Relief Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices are showing Spinning Top and Inverted Hammer candlesticks below resistance at 10141, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, a level reinforced by a seven-month high and 2011 peak at 10134. The setup warns of fading bullish conviction and hints a pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 10078, the 61.8% expansion. Alternatively, another push higher above 10141 exposes the 100% expansion level at 10241.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.468 // -0.012 // -0.34%

Prices are recovering from support at 3.438, the 100% Fibonacci expansion level. The advance faces initial resistance at 3.537 marked by the 76.4% expansion, with a break above that exposing 3.598. Alternatively, a break of support opens the door for a test of 3.334.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Aim_Higher_as_Risky_Assets_Mount_Relief_Rally_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Aim Higher as Risky Assets Mount Relief Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Desert Fox · May 21, 2012 - 11:20am

Anyone remember?

Just a visual for the new FUSS.

Fook-U and Fook-Me

Yeah Babbbbyyy! cool

BUDDHA PRINCESS · May 21, 2012 - 11:21am

Japanese Yen Sold as China Premier Wen Stokes Stimulus Hopes

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade as stocks rose in Asia and dampened demand for the safe-haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose 0.3 percent after Chinese Premier Wen Jiaobao said Beijing will maintain an active fiscal policy focused on stabilizing economic growth. The comments underpinned risk appetite on hopes that China will undertake stimulus measures to boost its own performance and by extension that of the global economy at large.

The likewise safety-linked US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) likewise faced selling pressure against growth-geared currencies like the Canadian and New Zealand Dollars. The benchmark currency remained well-supported versus its European counterparts however after the weekend’s G8 summit produced nothing concretely supportive on Greece or the wider Eurozone crisis.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet through European and US trading hours, leaving risk sentiment trends broadly in control of price action. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher late into the overnight session, hinting the recovery in risky assets may have scope to continue at the expense of the greenback and the Japanese unit.

Asia Session: What Happened









Net Migration s.a (APR)






Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)






Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)






Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR)






Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR)






All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)






Leading Index (MAR F)






Coincident Index (MAR F)




Euro Session: What to Expect









SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)






Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)






Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)






Euro-Zone Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)






Euro-Zone Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)






Italy Current Account (€) (MAR)




Critical Levels










--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

· May 21, 2012 - 11:23am

On Manipulation

Some talk on the previous thread. I'll simply add this:


Paul's work is detailed and comprehensive.

I would also ask you to read this:


Now, is that enough to "prove it in court"? We'll see. I suspect we'll have our answers quite soon. In the meantime and at the risk of sounding flippant, please prove to me "in court" that you love your wife, or your kids, or your mother. Can you? Or do you simply know by virtue of your actions and what you've experienced ? Similarly, can you "prove in court" that God does or does not exist? Can you? Or does your experience give you "faith" in your personal conclusions? The onus is not upon me or anyone to prove or disprove anything. In the end, we will all have our answers.

Finally, it is now generally accepted that:

  • Central banks intervene in the currency markets. In fact, we see it all the time. The Bank of Japan has been famous for this for years.
  • The Fed intervenes in the U.S. treasury market. Ever heard of the term "quantitative easing"? How about "ZIRP" or "Operation Twist"?
  • There's even a somewhat active intervention in the equity markets by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

Yet, the relatively tiny gold and silver markets (which, as SOUND MONEY, are a direct reflection upon the health and safety of fiat currency) are not manipulated? Seriously? Whatever. Sheep come in all forms, I guess.

Monedas · May 21, 2012 - 11:23am


Plain ole Monedian English spoken here ! Still looking for the Capitalist equivalent to North Korea ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Capitalist Paradise Talent Search devil

Jakob · May 21, 2012 - 11:27am

Speculative Shorts

Probably the only reason I can imagine for a company to speculate short in silver would be if that company wanted to lower its personal net worth over time. The only way I can imagine THAT would be if this company was net short on their own stock. Oh...wait, JPM: https://t.co/qockwo7B

Fulgurite · May 21, 2012 - 11:31am
Stratajema · May 21, 2012 - 11:48am


Why so serious? Still waiting for $1,400's on gold and $24 on silver. Meanwhile all the bottom callers on KW News are chirping... as usual. I still expect Santa to have to talk people off of the ledge.

dropout · May 21, 2012 - 11:49am

Oh Those Bothersome Fundamentals!

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has flattened after making a 90 day climb since the beginning of the year. And looks to roll over and make a deeper dive, all the while making lower lows and lower highs for the past 3 years.

China has started to default on commodities orders, some of which are in transit! In other words the ship owners are going to be stuck with the cost of transport ~ or the marine insurance industry is about to come under increasing pressure.

In Japan it is reported by diaper manufacturers, that adult pads have outsold infant pads for the first time in history. What does this mean? An older, large non-productive segment of their society, that will be net users of the system, and a smaller proportion of productive input from younger workers. 

The fundos? Just keep on getting worse. Very gold and silver positive. Deflation in those assets we own and inflation in those things we require to live, as the paper in your wallet suffers from devalued currency induced cost push inflation.

Keep your eye on the fundamental ball. Bouncing lower. Gold and silver have one way to go ~ up!

tmosley · May 21, 2012 - 11:53am

Whenever things don't go your

Whenever things don't go your way, blame the speculators.

Such desperation. We are always basing for paper silver to go higher. No-one is willing to accept that paper is burning and the system is crumbling. People measure their value in dollars, rather than ounces. It's just asinine.

Give it up. Paper is going to zero PERIOD. This is the defining characteristic of the new market phase we are in. Stop pretending like the journey to fabulous silver based riches is a short or easy one. It isn't. Just continue purchasing via cost averaging.

Absent an outright declaration of QE, paper is is going down on high volatility. That is all there is to it. Don't bet on QE coming to "save" you either, because QE is still going on now, just in the background. They will never announce it because it makes them look bad.


Bongo Jim · May 21, 2012 - 11:55am

They're just actresses


Why so down on Sally Strothers and Suzanne Sommers?

Dr G · May 21, 2012 - 11:56am

Thanks for bringing up the

Thanks for bringing up the BDIY. It's still in the crapper from where it was last year.

@tmosley, great post.

Dr G · May 21, 2012 - 11:59am

Wow, Facebook is a mess. Not

Wow, Facebook is a mess. Not a huge surprise, I suppose. What happens next week when we can finally short it? Bombs away!

I can't wait to get some puts for FB and retire in a couple of months ;)

Dr G · May 21, 2012 - 12:00pm

@Turd, I don't disagree with

@Turd, I don't disagree with the manipulation in the metals. I think they are heavily manipulated. My latest stance is that I don't care*, however, because there really isn't anything that I can do about it. It's also clear that all those meddling in the markets are far above the law.

And the manipulation doesn't in any way change what I do on a daily basis. In fact, as a stacker, it makes my job EASIER because things are cheaper.

So really, what should a stacker be complaining about in regards to the manipulation? Why should I invest any mental energy, or fill my time with worry or anger, when it really is a blessing to buy more for less than I could last year?

Are there really stackers that want silver to be $125 right now? Maybe there are. But what are they doing to do at that price? Sell for fiat? Those aren't stackers, those are investors and flippers.

These are my honest thoughts.

*not that I don't care as much as I'm choosing not to waste my time and energy on it. I'm shifting that energy over to my practice and family.

tmosley · May 21, 2012 - 12:01pm

Is this directed at me?

I hope not.

I have been describing, IN DETAIL, the addition of new spec shorts driving down price FOR WEEKS. They are now being forced to cover, which I have been predicting FOR WEEKS.

Groaner · May 21, 2012 - 12:01pm

I think its strange that we have the metal stocks looking real

good today and the bullion is languishing.. I say tomorrow they will bounce..

¤ · May 21, 2012 - 12:01pm

Acronyms are fun

Thanks for the latest TF. 

At some point the 'short' JPM/commodities merry-go-round' stops or slows down just enough for them to bail out or kicked off of it by legal means. It should be pretty spectacular and obvious when they start exiting en masse.

Everyone have a great day and expect the unexpected and volatility at some point going forward. It's eventual.

Getting booted off the computer by my son...tttyl

bernard · May 21, 2012 - 12:15pm


anyone who bought this stock is a shill.... ZuckerBerg is a farce of a CEO... he should not be running a public company. Not to say he is not an incredibly talented, visionary human being-- but let's face the facts. Zuckerberg invented Synapse (kind of like iTunes Genius... but a decade ago) as a senior in high school. Microsoft offered him $1 million for it, and what did Zuckerman (as my father would say) do? He uploaded it to the net and gave it away for free.

I actually used Synapse back in the day, it was great. It was a plugin for WinAMP (the itunes of the day). You would turn it on, listen to a bunch of your music, and Synapse would monitor your preferences of genre/artist in succession, and then if you wanted to hear a new song that would go well with what you're currently listing to... wazam, Synapse chose a new song for you. All in all a great tool, and clearly laid the groundwork for iTunes Genius software today.

in other news, we have our usual suspects trying to gap us lower--- like grinding teeth.

compare silver

Torpedo Fish · May 21, 2012 - 12:15pm


Dammit murphy, not all short squeezers are from other camp. I was forced to short silver in order to defend my long silver positions. 

T · May 21, 2012 - 12:18pm

canadian market is closed today

lots of miners not trading today. but the rest are having a pleasant little upside morning.

But watch out ,sometime soon enough, a little higher overhead of current miner prices, is big overhead resistance. Whipsaw reversal zone overhead. not there yet, but another big up day for miners and they'll hit that resistance. 

Might correlate with silver at 30 and gold at 1625 or something....where miners and metals might get slammed down then to retest low zones.

Bongo Jim · May 21, 2012 - 12:23pm

Oh, you meant her.

Now if it was Susan Sarandon, I'll agree with that.

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