Mon, May 21, 2012 - 11:00am

Looks like it's time to add a new acronym.

As discussed here ad nauseam for the past several weeks, our current battle is against the spec shorts, both large and small. These momentum-following, bandwagon-jumping leeches were the primary culprits in driving price all the way down to $1528 and $27. After the initial squeeze on Thursday, the heat was turned up even higher on Friday. Overnight and earlier today, these HFTers tried to push things back down but have since been stymied on the Comex. Let's hope this continues but don't expect them to give up easily.

Over the weekend, Trader Dan pointed out that gold had moved back above its 10-day moving average. This is step one in alleviating the pressure and flipping the WOPRs to "buy" from "sell". Step two will be getting above the 20-day near 1615. He's right about this. Remember, many WOPRs are programmed to run off of technical signals so moving back above key moving averages will help to halt the barrage of sell orders generated by the downside momentum. https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/gold-continues-its-bounce.html

I'm seeing chart resistance in that general area, too. Gold held support quite nicely earlier today near $1585 and has since rebounded nearly $10. I suspect that we'll continue to drift around here between 1585 and 1600 for a while, maybe into tomorrow or even Wednesday. I suspect, though, that another surge is coming that will drive price through resistance of 1600-1605 and take it up near the 20-day that Dan mentioned, near 1615. Chart resistance will enter again near 1625.

In silver, price has clearly broken out of the nasty and brutal downtrend channel that had contained it for days. Now, it just needs a spark to begin spooking the weak-handed shorts. It may simply be that gold strength will spill over into silver and drag it higher. Regardless, I firmly believe that the recovery process has begun and I expect silver to begin basing between 29 and 30 very soon. From that "staging area", silver will eventually mount a breakout move toward Battle Royale II.

That's it for now as it's almost 11:00 am EDT. You need a new thread and I've got a bunch of other stuff to do. We are about a week away from launching the new, subscription podcast site. I'm really excited about how it is turning out and I can't wait to offer it to you. Besides near-daily podcasts from yours truly, the site will also offer webinars and conference calls with some of the biggest names in metals. There will be plenty of in-depth interviews, too, where members will be able to submit questions. (That should be fun ) Anyway, I'll have more details as we get closer to launch and I hope you'll consider supporting the site. Revenues generated there will allow me to keep TFMR completely as is (FREE) and they will also help fund a possible "Turdapalooza".

Have a great day!! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 21, 2012 - 11:03am


My arse. Third 8-(

Colonel Angus
May 21, 2012 - 11:06am

Seconds away...from being first

After the big FUTF of the past week, we need to raise a little FUSS. Before it is over, we might even need a FUBM. And if that happens, everyone around here might be getting FUBAR with a few drinks of choice.

May 21, 2012 - 11:07am


Looking at a lot of metal sites this last downward pressure was kicking lots of people out, i.e. they were selling their physical just because the price was stagnant and dropping for so long. They just got beat down. I have seen these runs before and holding steady seems like the way to go. We haven't hit the really big moves of a collapsing economy yet. THAT would be the time to sell.

May 21, 2012 - 11:08am

Thanks again

Thank s for all you do for people Turd.

Keep up the good work.

May 21, 2012 - 11:10am


would that be f** you short squeezers?

May 21, 2012 - 11:11am

I was thinking...





May 21, 2012 - 11:13am


I tried to edit it but my access was denied.

May 21, 2012 - 11:14am

There Will Be Reversal

Gold stalled on Monday as did silver, unable to early on confirm the reversal from Thursday and Friday of last week. The news which might have signaled the turn around was a decline in the Philly Fed Index as well as the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting, which have stoked to flame of Quantitative Easing incoming. This week we should keep an eye on U.S. durable goods numbers, China's manufacturing PMI, U.S. new and existing home sales, Japan's trade balance and the German business climate. Greece and Spain also will likely be in the news, if all hell is blown loose with an introduction of Quantitative Easing in Iceland.


Dr G
May 21, 2012 - 11:14am

Turdapalooza sounds fun.

Turdapalooza sounds fun.

May 21, 2012 - 11:19am

US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Commodity prices are on the upswing to start the trading week as risk sentiment mounts a cautious recovery after three consecutive weeks of aggressive selling. In the absence of top-tier economic data or significant Eurozone-linked news flow, the catalyst appears to have come by way of supportive overnight comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiaobao, who said Beijing will maintain an active fiscal policy focused on stabilizing economic growth. The remarksstoked hopes that China will undertake stimulus measures to boost its own performance and by extension that of the global economy at large.

Looking ahead, the absence of major scheduled event risk through the end of US trading hours suggests the corrective advance is likely to continue. Indeed, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, arguing for a near-term upside scenario for growth-geared crude oil andcopper prices. Gold and silver likewise stand to gain if the rebound in the risk space dents safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. With that in mind, disappointment in the largely fruitless G8 summit over the weekend is likely to keep a lid on the festivities considering none of the headwinds battering risky assetsrecently have materially changed.

S&P 500 – Prices are finding intraday support above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 1286.60, with a bounce from here seeing initial resistance at 1313.00 marked by the 50% boundary. Alternatively, a break lower exposes the 76.4% level at 1253.90.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $91.48 // -1.08 // -1.17%– As with the S&P 500, prices are staging an intraday recovery from support at 90.49 to challenge resistance at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low. A break above this boundary exposes the February 2 low at 95.41. Alternatively, a break of support targets 88.55.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1592.99 // +18.72 // +1.19%

As we suspected last week, prices recovered after putting in a Spinning Top candlestick above support in the 1532.45-1522.50 area, marked by the September 26 and December 29 spike lows. The 1600/oz figure is now in play, with resistance there reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1599.17. A break above these boundaries exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1616.23. Near-term support is marked by the 38.2% retracement at 1582.10.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

​Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.74 // +0.70 // +2.51%

Prices are testing resistance at 28.70 after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 27.06. A break higher exposes the next upside barrier at 28.70. Alternatively, a reversal through near-term support on a daily closing basis opens the door for a descent to the 26.05-15 area.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices are showing Spinning Top and Inverted Hammer candlesticks below resistance at 10141, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, a level reinforced by a seven-month high and 2011 peak at 10134. The setup warns of fading bullish conviction and hints a pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 10078, the 61.8% expansion. Alternatively, another push higher above 10141 exposes the 100% expansion level at 10241.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.468 // -0.012 // -0.34%

Prices are recovering from support at 3.438, the 100% Fibonacci expansion level. The advance faces initial resistance at 3.537 marked by the 76.4% expansion, with a break above that exposing 3.598. Alternatively, a break of support opens the door for a test of 3.334.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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