The End Is Near

Wed, May 16, 2012 - 10:35am

Actually, just looking for an excuse to post this photo again. This sad-sack dude looks about like how I feel these days.

Alas, though, the end IS near. I believe gold saw the final capitulative low late yesterday into the overnight as the June12 contract touched $1526.70 and is now $22 off its lows. Marking this event seems to be the rumored, and apparently true, margin liquidation of a large (JPM client?) position in gold. This mainly transpired after the NY close yesterday on the thinly-traded Globex. Note how it occurred after the close and the weekly CoT survey. If there was an "event", the timing allowed for skillful covering of their tracks.

So, we'll see. IF we've reached The Bottom of this 11-week torture session, step one was placed early this morning with a low at important chart support, near 1525. After a brief rally, which has already begun, we'll inevitably see a pullback to near the lows. From there, having double-bottomed, the next rally then extends to a higher high and The Bottom is officially in.

I finally had some time to check and respond to some emails this morning. Lots of good stuff in the inbox. Here are links that you really need to consider.

First, this article from Matt Taiibi at Rolling Stone. If you're unfamiliar with Matt, you should know that, even though he works for Rolling Stone, he truly is one the primary "investigators" on the case of Wall Street shenanigans and fraud. This blog post is very, very important, especially when you consider the naked shorting we all see in the PM markets.

To that end, read this. From one of your fellow Turdites:

Has anyone heard about this yet? Looks like there's some "competition" for PHYS coming soon. All this does is create more demand for real, allocated gold.

Lastly, I'm posting this "sight unseen" as I have not had the time to watch it myself. However, I find teh premise interesting and the guy who sent it to me sure was excited. If you have the time, give it a whirl.

OK, that's it for now. For a little Turdville history, here's a link to the previous post that included the same image of "the end is near". Be sure to read the comments and follow some of the links posted. You'll see some of the very same bearish arguments being made today were being made back then. Interesting...

Have a great day and be sure to feed Calvin. Here kitty, kitty, kitty! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 16, 2012 - 10:38am


Numero Uno Amigos!!!!

May 16, 2012 - 10:38am
The Death Ceiling
May 16, 2012 - 10:39am

BofE comment

"We have been through a big global financial crisis, the biggest downturn in world output since the 1930s, the biggest banking crisis in this country's history, the biggest fiscal deficit in our peacetime history, and our biggest trading partner, the euro area, is tearing itself apart without any obvious solution.

"The idea that we could reasonably hope to sail serenely through this with growth close to the long-run average and inflation at 2% strikes me as wholly unrealistic," Sir Mervyn King said.

May 16, 2012 - 10:39am

By the way,

Not to get too far ahead of things...but...a close above 1565 would make for one hell of an Outside Reversal Day.

May 16, 2012 - 10:41am


Hey look! A rally!

(10 minutes later)....Awwe. shucks.

May 16, 2012 - 10:42am


In the top 10 two days in a row.

Bottom MAY be in for gold, but I fear they still have more punishment to dole out to silver - yikes.

I would be glad to be wrong, or right for that matter as I'd like to purchase some more ounces before all is said & done.

silver bullett
May 16, 2012 - 10:44am



Eric King
May 16, 2012 - 10:45am

Bought at 27.38

Very happy. Hold baby hold.

May 16, 2012 - 10:46am

You know that most torties are female?

If you have a male tortie, they're worth quite a bit of money because they're very rare.

In any case, she or he is cute and furry.

May 16, 2012 - 10:48am

This news is being scrubbed

this news is being scrubbed from the internet, below one of last links that still opens with the story, America forget about the middle east for the moment and focus in your own backyard, now this is a war that addresses national security interests.

May 16, 2012 - 10:48am

Smile... happy or at least try to be and be thankful for what we all have in our day to day life.

I think if we start to live in the moment too much that we lose track a little bit of the longer and broader picture. The big picture of life and where we are in it and what we have to be thankful and appreciative of.

It's all about the little things in everyday life. Try not to let the big things blot out your energy and spirit.

When it becomes tough, get tougher and damn the torpedoes. Become a torpedo in whatever way, shape or form it takes for you to harden yourself from the day to day B.S.

Have a great day!

May 16, 2012 - 10:50am


Because this long-term trend makes it seems obvious that we're nearing/already reached the bottom. 11 straight down days? That's when people say "buy when there's blood in the streets". People start getting discouraged and I start getting out my check book.

May 16, 2012 - 10:51am

Not gonna call a bottom just yet

Third test though. Of the initial low made when? Way back last year? Almost like these last 9 months have been a triangle pattern. Consolidation.

I mean, if you gotta meet margin calls or you're too worried to sleep at night, by all means sell. But if you're anything less than that, I'd hold on.

Hold. On.

May 16, 2012 - 10:51am

TF beat me to it

1565 close was my trend-breaker.

but then he's TF afterall.

in the scheme of things, i'm still a rookie.

May 16, 2012 - 10:53am

Well I have to admit

Well I have to admit after timing the last to corrections to 26 almost perfectly on my stacking purchases. THis One kIcKed My buTT. bought at 31, 30, and28.80. bought me a Kilo coin today at 27.70 to make up for my putz purchases higher. All stored in my canoe of course with a leaky bottom. I think shes trying to make a bottom right here folks so stackem if you got em JMHO

May 16, 2012 - 10:53am

Food for thought

Brief respite headed our way?

I think we trend upwards a biti n the PM's until we get closer to the Greek elections.

JPM is already out of the bag and somewhat old news and we'll have to wait to see how it pans out or what direction they take the investigation. In the meantime, barring any major market or global news, I think we'll trend up slowly until Greece comes back into focus and this re-racks itself.

I'm about to buy some silver very shortly right after this post.

Dr G
May 16, 2012 - 10:57am

No respite here, this selling

No respite here, this selling isn't over. I think we test $26, which were the lows from December (which was actually a test of a previous $26).

Be very cautious to not get ahead of your self. Some small moves up this morning (which looked nice), but they appear to be rounding and heading down again. They could be a break for another small leg up, or they could lead to selling for the remainder of open outcry...

Urban Roman
May 16, 2012 - 10:58am

No, no ...

Of course, there is always a cautionary note:

Rumor Time: Stocks, EUR Surge On Renewed LTRO 3 Speculation
May 16, 2012 - 10:58am



If we look at COEUR D' ALENE, we notice that their NET INCOME is a measly $3.9 million, even though their Revenue was higher compared to the same period last year. Silver Standard actually suffered a $1.1 million NET EARNINGS LOSS in Q1 - 2012, compared to a $9.9 million gain in the same period last year.

Pan American Silver did better than the other two, but we can see even their NET INCOME declined nearly half of what it was the first 3 months of 2011. Part of this decline was due to a $13 million charge-off for acquiring Minefinders. Pan American Silver's Total Production Costs are $14.15... however, this does not include ALL COSTS. I would imagine their COMPLETE cost is more like $23-25 an oz.

Also, look at Silver Standard's CASH COST and you will see that they are in trouble already if their CASH COSTS are $20+. These 3 silver miners produced 12.6 million ounces in Q1, 2012. This represents 50 million ounces of global silver supply in a year. One company is losing money, and the other is barely making money.

What happens when they get $5-$7 dollars less an ounce in Q2, 2012??


May 16, 2012 - 10:58am

Hehe...pep talk.

Hehe...pep talk.

Seal - Love's Divine (Official Music Video)
Seal - Amazing [Official Music Video]
May 16, 2012 - 11:00am

Euro Correlation to Gold

If gold is to bounce here a decline in spanish bond yields must occur (currently 6.25%) which will help the euro stage as rally as FXE's current rsi is below 30. The odds favor a move up to roughly 1580 here, but some of the biggest market declines have resulted from deep oversold conditions and biggest rallies from deep overbought conditions. The real key here is that the Fed needs to sound dovish in the minutes today THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST if there is one. I think the odds are they could sound dovish as the data was a bit more soft and inflation has now decline 8 straight months getting dangerously close to the 2% target level that will trigger QE3. Since the end of QE2 inflation has dropped from 3.88 to 2.33 and mark my words the Bernank sees this trend and one more down month in inflation and QE3 is essentially locked in.


May 16, 2012 - 11:02am

Merk's Custodian is JPMorgan

Seems like another diversion of paper currency to paper gold. Why would anyone dealing in real physical have JPM as the custodian?

Page 61.

Good luck buying that ETF, LOL

Double Bogey
May 16, 2012 - 11:03am

This was posted before...

but in case you missed it, read this:

This reminds me of the late 1980's when I first became interested in silver after someone told me I could buy silver for less than what it cost to produce it. Are we really at that point again? These prices should make anyone feel good about buying yesterday, today, tomorrow...unless your time horizon is shorter than a week. Just sayin...

May 16, 2012 - 11:05am

this might be of interest

sorry for the repost, but minutes of diffiCULT research were required:

men's cult p.j.s

May 16, 2012 - 11:08am

Excellent Catch!

I missed that little detail. Well done!

Silver Danny
May 16, 2012 - 11:08am
May 16, 2012 - 11:13am

there goes the 1565 close possibilities


WHACKED by the HFT algos n jumped on by the EE

Big Buffalo
May 16, 2012 - 11:13am

why me?

Why didn't I buy at $1529? Why Me?

Why didn't I sell at $1550? Why me?

Why didn't I . . . .blah blah blah

May 16, 2012 - 11:15am
Marc Grail
May 16, 2012 - 11:17am

Martenson Suggestion on Purchase Timing

Here's the latest from Chris:

"For now, my investment advice is to keep your powder dry, have plenty of cash or cash equivalents on hand, and be ready. I am personally going to wait for the central bank liquidity announcements and then deploy my cash into ‘things.’

Gold and silver will be my primary targets at the outset, and I am comfortable waiting for the central banks to move first before making my move because I really have no idea how long they will sit tight before making their next move. It could be a while, and everything will be going down in price until they do.

This means that I will miss the absolute bottom in prices, but that’s okay. I am more comfortable waiting at this point than trying to guess the bottom."

However, I couldn't wait and just bought a monster box.

You can read more here:


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