The Latest Gold and Silver Breakdown

Tue, May 8, 2012 - 1:34pm

Of course I'm not going to suggest that you attempt to catch the falling knife, however, those still trading may soon see an opportunity to buy.

First, let's look at the long-term chart we've been following for years. Is it possible for price to break DOWN and out of the channel? Of course it is, I just didn't think it would. But, similar to the break UP and out following the S&P downgrade of the U.S. last August, gold can break DOWN yet the overall trend remains in this "managed ascent".

Just for kicks, here is today's 5-minute chart. Roughly 6000 contracts dumped at the Comex open started the whitewash and has left gold clinging to support at the round number of 1600.

As we hold all core positions and use any and all bouts of weakness to add to physical stacks, where might there be a trade? Well, let's look closely at two longer-term charts. First, this daily chart. Note that gold remains in the same, old, $80-range down channel but also note the reflexive short-covering that has occurred on previous drops to the lower extreme of the channel.

And $1575 also looks like the beginning of support in this weekly chart, too. NOT saying that gold can't continue lower, through 1575, as it certainly can. However, anything between 1525 and 1575 sure looks like an attractive entry point for a possible trade.

Lastly, from a LONG TERM perspective, please keep this in mind: On 5/9/11 (May 8 was a Sunday), gold closed at $1503. This equates to a year-over-year return of nearly +7%. For perspective, the S&P 500 ended 5/9/11 at 1346. This equates to a year-over-year return of less than 1%. Stitch that into your clothes, Charlie, you FOAD!

Please hang in there and keep the faith. Your gold (and silver) is your only protection. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 8, 2012 - 1:37pm

413th ~!?

It's about time~!

May 8, 2012 - 1:41pm

keep your eyes on the prize

Turd thanks for all of your efforts in helping to make some sense of all of this in what is an ever more confusing picture.

I just keep looking at that longer term chart and reminding myself of the fiat creation that is constantly underway and it makes days like today seem fairly unimportant in the great scheme of things - keep your eyes on the prize and hold on!

May 8, 2012 - 1:47pm

This is THEIR Chance to Lessen Their Shorts

They've been lessening their shorts like CRAZY.

May 8, 2012 - 1:54pm


Looks like an exhaustion move to me, and its in line with the Elliot Wave count.

May 8, 2012 - 1:54pm


Check out this forum I found

maybe we can plan joint actions?

May 8, 2012 - 2:00pm

Dear god help us.

Dear god help us.

May 8, 2012 - 2:05pm

So you know if you google

So you know if you google Blythe Masters pretty much all that shows up, besides her being a Big Swinging Dick for JPMorgan commodities, is that she is a big supporter of the Susan B. Komen Woman’s Cancer research fund. Does anyone else not see the gaping irony in this? It seems that Blythe Masters, the epitome and very manifestation of cancer in humanly form, when she is not defrauding the precious metals markets for millions (or perhaps billions… why don’t you open that derivatives book baby, and let us see how short you really are) she raises money for cancer awareness. Bernank finds this tremendously entertaining. Let’s see… In 2010, Blythe Masters raised $137,600 for Susan B. Komen Race for the Cure. That’s a little over half the total amount of money raised by “Team JP Morgan” which came in 2nd to Barclays. So silver traders, at least take pride in knowing that every time Blythe executes a sale of the World supply of Silver in a 1 minute tick (because execution and getting the best price is so 2008), some of the downside is donated to finding a cure for cancer. To quote wikipedia, “Masters is Board Chair of the NY Affiliate of the breast cancer charity, Susan G. Komen for the Cure, and a member of the Board of Directors of the National Dance Institute.” can you imagine what this broad is like in bed? Luckily her husband, Daniel Masters, probably spends more time drilling her head…. as he is conveniently hedge fund manager of Global Advisors, a big player in the “financial commodity markets”. His full title is “Director of Trading & Execution”, where I am sure he makes a lot of extra money front running all the Federal Reserve (through JPM) commodity market interventions. I bet him and Blythe make a good penny on the side front running these trades for their own books. Knowledge of these interventions I estimate is available up to 24 hours in advance, depending on what the S&P500 is doing (now 1350). Anyone who is paraded around and lauded as a genius for inventing “CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS” — those “INSANELY EXOTIC TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES” — must have a real banker’s conscience. I mean they are after all, just an insurance policy on bond debt, what’s so hard to understand? I pay a premium for you, in the case of a default, to pay out the whole value of a bond I own. The average ECON101 student could understand that. While George Carlin always talked about religion as being the ultimate field of snake-oil salesmen (God always needs more money), I disagree. These pseudo-intellectual, economist “trader” jerks are practicing the ultimate hubris. I am sure Blythe enjoys controlling world commodity prices, much much more than raising her daughter or servicing her husband. The suppression has become so obvious to anyone who follows markets. Huge orders going off instantly without regard for execution price are quoted as “fat fingers” when they are above 7,000 contracts (oops we triggered too many stops). Well that’s funny because that person seems to have a routinely fat, perhaps morbidly obese finger, that always fucking tips its fat little paw down SELL at 3 AM / 8:20 AM eastern in the pre-market. You would have to be purely foolish to look at this kind of price action as an interpretation of a working and orderly market. No, these gigantic sell orders are executed by JP Morgan, HSBC, and probably dozens of countless other LBMA / hedge fund identities, of which Daniel Masters is I am sure one of. So I ponder such a situation we find ourselves in today. It is good to recognize that the world of silver we have come to know is created by individuals colluding together for what they believe is the “greater good”. IE, they still think it is possible to get the US Economic recovery going again, by throwing money around and bidding up asset prices. Gold and Silver are the enemy, because they represent people taking money OUT of the ECONOMY (or at least the measurable one) and into SAVINGS. They view this as the antithesis of what needs to happen to get the “great economic machine working” again. They are so arrogant, their ideas about this machine so maligned. They are totally neglecting the INFORMATION REVOLUTION AGE which is coming online in greater acceleration at all times. This “INFORMATION REVOLUTION” means that anything, and I mean ANY HUMAN ACT, is getting to the point of being “outsourcable” through the internet. Talk to an ER doctor. When someone comes in early early in the morning with a broken limb, they do an MRI and send via email right to India! A physician there does a quick read and write up, at what fraction of the cost? This is why the US ECONOMY IS DOOMED. TPTB / populace in their arrogance have MISTAKEN financial innovation for ECONOMIC innovation for perhaps 20 years, because of USD status as a world reserve currency. To sum it up, the internet is ACCELERATING WAGE ABRITRAGE. This is no good for the average American who depends on other people to produce all goods. What will become of the USA? The commodities complex is the enemy of the Monetary Wizards, as it sheds light on the zero-sum nature of their money printing games. Sure, they can make the stock market go up, but when the correlation between the S&P500 and Oil is almost 1:1, is that really a good thing? Of course not! It’s all relative. There is no increase in real value, just all assets have gone up in relation to each other against a declining dollar. For now the weak euro is helping bolster the dollar which I believe, in the short termm, has made a close below $30 today possible. There are 3 and a half hours left in trading as of now… and on the day already silver has moved something like $4.00 in total price movement. Ponder that my friends. Good day to you all, you are all great people if you are reading this. Just know Bernank thinks about you every day, and no, I am not Bernanke, just Bernank, you remove the E and it’s like all the bad things go away. Silver has risen 20 cents since I started writing this, so maybe it will recover to close at $30. That would be bossy. Bernank

May 8, 2012 - 2:08pm

No silver charts?

Oh come on. Some of us don't give a toss about gold.

May 8, 2012 - 2:09pm


Re: Volcker, you are right, my mistake...Don't know why I thought it was Greenspan.

"On November 15, 2004, The Nikkei Weekly published the following excerpt from Volcker’s memiors about the U.S. dollar revaluation that took place on February 12, 1973. Volcker writes:

"'That day the United States announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.' (

"Got that? A former Federal Reserve chairman, the one credited for wringing inflation out of the U.S. dollar in the late 1970s and early 1980s, now a presidential adviser, says that for the U.S. government not to rig the gold market was a mistake.

"Volcker is still around to answer questions, but as far as we know, no financial journalist has ever asked him why not rigging the gold market was a mistake."

May 8, 2012 - 2:11pm


If there is a God, he is helping us...he gave us Turd, and Ron Paul, and silver and gold and beans and bullets and brains.

Desert Fox
May 8, 2012 - 2:14pm

It's almost laughable!

The trolling is heavy and the sentiment is weak.

Cheer up,,,,or else!

May 8, 2012 - 2:16pm

Use a pitchfork

Miners looking like they want to go to 337:

May 8, 2012 - 2:19pm

Repost from last thread:

Like Jim Rogers has been saying: the end of the banking era is here! No more will you see the bankers driving the Lamborghini and Ferrari. The farmers will be the ones driving them!

Speaking of farming, the average age farmer in America is over 55!

The Mormons have canneries where you can by cheap grain in most major cities. You can also can there free of charge! I am not certain though if you can bring your own food to can.,12566,2026-1-4,00.html

Here is a link to an order form that provides prices. You can compare with other vendors to see if the price is reasonable.,11666,7977-1-4352-1,00.html

Some Mormon quotes that may mean nothing to you:

"The revelation to store food may be as essential to our temporal salvation today as boarding the ark was to the people in the days of Noah." Ezra Taft Benson

"The time will come that gold will hold no comparison in value to a bushel of wheat." (President Brigham Young, Discourses of Brigham Young, p.298.)

"There is more salvation and security in wheat, than in all the political schemes of the world, and also more power in it than in all the contending armies of the nations. Raise wheat and lay it up in store till it will bring a good price; not dollars and cents, but kingdoms, countries, peoples, tribes, and tongues. "They have sold themselves for naught, and must be redeemed without money!" It will take wheat to redeem them! Raise wheat and lay it up securely and it will preach the "gathering" more eloquently, successfully, and extensively than all the missionaries that we can send out to sweep through the nations, with the proclamation of the judgments of God abroad in the land! "- Orson Hyde (1855)


I was reading a book Sunday night in bed about food storage written by a Mormon. Naturally, it didn't help me to fall asleep so I turned on the computer to post some of the information in the book onto the forum. However, half way through I abandoned this idea and went to bed but I still wish to share some of the very important things I had read.

I am paraphrasing here.

An American man who visited Germany during hyperinflation:

1) Old people whose pensions, yes they had pensions then too, became worthless committed suicide. Could you imagine living a semi-normal or even good life and then becoming so hopeless that you commit suicide? This is tragic!

2) He talked about a story of a women who "sacrificed" herself by walking into a river. The money used for her medicine, she felt, would be better spent on food for her children.

3) One man was staying in a hotel and his wife was ill. He asked the front service to turn the heat on. They said that it would cost too much money to heat the hotel. The husband of the sick wife insisted that they turn the heat on. They sent a manager to their room and ultimately said it would cost 50,000 or 500,000 German marks, I can't remember which, to heat the entire hotel. What did this equate to in the US dollar? 1!

A young female, Mormon missionary from the States was in Russia in 1998:

1) She talked about how the people started to notice something was wrong when the ruble went from a 6:1 ratio with the dollar to a 7:1. The 6:1 ratio apparently was the norm for quite some time. It ended up going to 28:1 with the dollar in a matter of weeks. Should said the people didn't know what to do. She went as far as to say she thought they were living a century in the past.

Another instance of a German/American, can't remember, man trying to sell a gold watch:

1) The man, along with his son, went to near by farms to see if they first could perform any work for food. One farmer was in need of some carpentry skills and the father and son obliged. They ended up insulating this farmers home for 5 bags of beans. He then pulled out the gold watch to trade for an additional 2 bags of beans. The farmer hesitated and stated that he had enough gold and jewelry to open up a store. He offered the father and son 1 bag of beans for the gold watch and again the father obliged.

What does this tell us? If the situation gets extremely bad, and I think it will, millions will go hungry. Therefore food items are equally important, and in some situations more important, to metals.

The book has a recommended guideline of a year supply of food if anyone is interested in it. This book is very detailed and contains quotes from Mormon church leadership who are known for counseling the people for over a century to have a year supply.

If you want the very, very basics that provide adequate nutrition store: grains (wheat), milk, honey and salt. You'll be lacking vitamin C but if your sprout the wheat seed you'll have one of the highest concentrates of vitamin C available.


Dr G
May 8, 2012 - 2:27pm

Numerous thoughts:1) James

Numerous thoughts:

1) James Turk says that if silver goes over $35 it will quickly ascend to 60 or 70 or something idiotic. Anybody who believes this is a fool. Anybody who purchases silver based on that analysis is a fool. Stackers would be wise to ignore KWN and let go of their emotions and think rationally about why they are purchasing.

2) A fellow Turdite yesterday responded to one of my posts. He stated that he was buying physical so the price would go higher. I hope people don't believe that. What you buy at the local coin shop has no effect on the futures price. I know that many already understand this, but apparently some don't. Look at the charts Turd posted above. It lists GC12. Turd also wrote "June gold" on it. That is a futures price and has no correlation to the physical metal you purchase (other than the spot price is derived from it in a complicated manner and therefore it affects what you PAY for your metal).

3) Yes, gold has a reverse H&S on it, but it also has a H&S. If that plays out then we should see $1500 gold. Yamada says $1500 or lower is in play.

4) Silver to $27 (or lower) would not surprise me. It would also not surprise Yamada who notes that critical support is not until $25.

5) Yamada is never wrong (just kidding, but mostly true...)

6) Gold and silver will protect us through the coming economic collapse. I've put my money where my mouth is on this. I 100% believe this.

7) If #6 is true than you should welcome lower prices. You can get more of something you need for a lesser amount than the day before.

8) If you bought physical silver thinking you could flip it you are probably nauseated at this point and refuse to believe what is evident on the charts: silver has had lower highs for a long time and looks ill.

9) This really is a weeding process that is occurring. Those that fit #8 are getting their asses handed to them on a platter. Those that bought at $50 (I did!) and are holding to protect their purchasing power are feeling fine.

10) Just because you refuse to believe what is clearly in front of you, does not make others a troll. That term is thrown around here like candy, and it's a shame.

May 8, 2012 - 2:31pm

My apologies in advance


I think you should talk this over in advance with your new contacts, but I believe its best now if you DON'T post anymore charts and recommendations here as your site is 100% being monitored since it is highly read and tptb need info on the common man's perspective. I think (although I respect them) your efforts here are actually undermining the overall effort as an unintended consequence that we never thought would happen. Perhaps for a period of time, you relinquish and keep open threads and just talk about the fundamental macro picture.

Please consider this and all comments welcome.


May 8, 2012 - 2:32pm

Desert Fox

There are so many holes in my tongue it feels like a sheet of stamps. If anything could convince me more of where we are and where we are heading, it would be the amount of weird comments. God help us? Gold is at 1600 and silver is at 29.30 something. Did no one expect volatility? I understand that people are going through hard times - here it comes - unemployment and higher and higher prices. This is not a game - serious trouble is around the bend. I am not ready for it either, but I hope I will be on the positive side not the negative side then and now - what is the purpose of this public display of God help us? How about we help us, and if there is a god it will be very pleased with us, and if there isn't, then we better not be waiting for its help.

Eric Original
May 8, 2012 - 2:34pm

Congratulations, Xty!

You've taken over the spot as Number One Chatterbox on the board!

I knew you had it in you!

Irksome Kcap
May 8, 2012 - 2:38pm


In the grand scheme of things, the musings of Turd and others on this site have, I believe, 0% chance of affecting TPTB's actions. They are playing the hand they are dealt, and they cannot help but continue to do so.

Just my opinion.

May 8, 2012 - 2:41pm


Beardus, another excellent post - much appreciated!! The takeaway I got is that though PMs are the obvious choice to place any surplus wealth, NOTHING is more important than your preps, specifically your food supplies. Your story illustrated the exact same thing the stories from the Bosnian war survivor illustrated - if shit really hits the fan, food will be worth more than it's weight in gold.

I'm going to start stockpiling honey in addition to the booze, lard, beans and rice that I'm already stockpiling. Screw 1 year - I'm going for a 10 year supply !!

May 8, 2012 - 2:43pm

NHL plus/minus award

The NHL Plus-Minus Award is a trophy awarded annually by the National Hockey League to the ice hockey "player, having played a minimum of 60 games who leads the league in plus/minus statistics."[1] ... .Bobby Orr has led the league the most times in plus-minus, with 6, and Wayne Gretzky has won the award the most times, three, and also led the league once prior to the inception of the award. Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins is the most recent winner and the third Bruins player to win it in the last four seasons....

This statistic reflects a player's ability to contribute offensively and defensively...

​We should all want a really high plus/minus.

S Roche
May 8, 2012 - 2:46pm

Hey Turd, while it's open season...

Please keep going the way you are.

I like the way you are trying to navigate all this, and I admire your humility, your humor and your sense of decency.

May 8, 2012 - 2:47pm


I wish I could agree. I am more than certain they use web analytics to measure sentiment on "everything"...they don't care about Turd, he's useless to them. What they care about is a "flow" of sentiment "somewhere" on the web, that can be measured as to obtain information which they can then use to make a decision about something to best suit their interests. And that can be accomplished from studying this site....and others like it for that matter. You must understand how easy it is to send spiders out to say, 50 websites that are like-minded in nature, measure sentiment based on what the algorithms are designed to study and send back that info. It is the ultimate control at the touch of a button.

Its a sad, grim world we live in but the truth, will always set you free.

Of course, Turd will continue on as he wishes. Just some thoughts....and of course, I appreciate your response.


May 8, 2012 - 2:48pm

Yep, congrats to Xty!

I'm not sure who EO is referencing there

May 8, 2012 - 2:51pm


I remember buying fresh corn for 13 ears per dollar (fiat or silver). These days it is about 2 ears for one fiat buck. If we had an old 90% silver dollar, we could buy about 54 ears at todays prices.

My brother-in-law farmer may plant a big corn crop this year. If you want to trade him a silver dollar, he will give you 54 ears. One could learn a lot from corn and the future.

May 8, 2012 - 2:53pm


, Extended Family,

Today has been interesting in a perverse way. I have heard from every gold short who knows my name. I have heard from every weak gold holder that knows my name yelling for help. This time I cannot answer all the incoming communications. Nobody could.

A month ago I got over 3500 incoming emails in less than three hours. The shorts exulting by email really cannot expect an answer. Even the weak gold and frustrated gold share holders cannot expect me to assuage their pain one at a time. The reason is it is always the same people pushing the panic button.

I fully expect Alf Fields to be proven correct. As of today nothing he has said is wrong. He feels the gold price has bottomed in this reaction. That is yet to be proven incorrect.

The US dollar is not putting on a grand performance today. The US economy is not going to support the sitting Administration’s desire for another 4 years. QE to infinity is certain even today.

There is a global stock market sell off today which is totally unacceptable as it pertains to the US market in an election year. Liquidity floats all boats and all boats are screaming for that liquidity today.

The cash market continues with its brake on the fully out bearish algorithms attacking the paper gold market.

Re-read the recent interview I did in Futures Magazine as it covers all relevant to gold fundamental issues. Like all other reactions in gold since $248, this will end, and gold will again go to new highs.

Gold companies with 43-101 certified resources that are growing are calls on the gold price that have no end in terms of time.

If you cannot stand the heat you must get out of the kitchen. If you can stand the heat, I firmly believe we will prevail and be rewarded in shares and gold itself.

Please accept this as what I would have told you on the phone. Please accept this as the answer to your cries for HELP by fax and emails as no one can answer this many emails and faxes.

If after you review the fundamentals in Futures Magazine you agree there is no change, buck up your courage and stop watching prices. They will get better as soon as the algorithms do not get their way and mindlessly reverse themselves.

Nothing is better for gold than an implosion on the Dow as it is intolerable to the PPT. That is where the Fed’s and Administration’s head is at. Liquidity floats all boats. The Administration controls the Fed under such circumstances. In the entire history of the Fed, they have never failed a sitting administration.


May 8, 2012 - 2:53pm

Oh my, the metals are rising

Glue that hair back on folks, there seems to be an uptick.

Patriot Family
May 8, 2012 - 2:53pm

Silver and gold prices are

Silver and gold prices are looking awfully attractive right now. I realize many of you have very little fiat to spare, but digging deep on silver, gold and prep purchases is money well spent in my opinion. I have already been able to barter 90% silver for a few items that I wanted and will probably buy my next hunting rifle this way.

I don't want to draw us off topic, so I will be brief on the subject of prepping. Please explore your options on how to store foods. If you don't have the skills or equipment to correctly store food that will last for 5-20 years, then buying #10 cans, super pails and buckets of freeze dried foods is an option for you but it will cost you more.

If you make the investment in mylar bags, O2 absorbers, generic buckets, etc you can store gobs of food that will last for years. It will also cost you much, much less. Did you know you can also buy your own #10 can sealing equipment and bulk restaurant foods (i.e., 50 lb bags of rice, beans, grains, pasta, bulk coffee, tea, etc.) and do your own #10 cans?

We do Mylar bag storage in buckets (extremely effective), vacuum sealed dry mixes in Ball Jars (lot of fun!), stored #10 cans from major suppliers, and we plan to buy our own #10 can sealing equipment next month. We also stock up on store sales.

Please get in touch with me if you have questions about food storage. You should be measuring your food storage preps in terms of months or 1-2 years, not days or weeks. Once you get going, the cost is essentially flatlines because you then start rotating your food stocks.

I am out of work - still looking - but we'll continue to prep. We have been making moves to start our own sideline prepping company but I'll put in a shameless plug that if anyone out there needs a high performing contact center operations/customer service manager, I am available and can relocate to anywhere in the country.

May 8, 2012 - 2:54pm


as you well know, it is not a goal I had - and I am sure it is a temporary blip - but I never expected to have to defend everyman so vigilantly!

But I did get a canner for Christmas, and when I can my bacon you can bet I will take a picture for all (even if then I will be tracked and hunted down because I used the wrong device) - honestly, I came for the bacon, but stayed for so much more.

edit: warning, I am only half way through my train ride.

May 8, 2012 - 2:56pm

Blythe masters

Rumor circulating that she may be forced out of JPM

Green Lantern
May 8, 2012 - 2:57pm

I just came back from your

I just came back from your typical American Mall. Between the Macy's on one side and the JCPenny on the otherside, there were no fewer than three stands that purchased your gold, silver and platinum. And next to the Empanada place on the outside, was yet another store dedicated to purchasing your metals. And in my neighborhood alone there is no less than 6 places that have opened in the last two years that are gold, silver, platinum BUYERS. Except for the coin store, none of the other ones will have to do anything with selling. So don't even ask! Now that doesn't mesh very well with the recent full court press by CNBC, Muninger, Buffett etc.... The illusion is starting to break-up and hence the increased intensity of both disinformation and smash downs. Call me sick or disturbed but I'm love these high gust winds because the writing is on the wall and we might be closer to a 1st stage SHTF than most people think.

What I also notice that with the exception of the white dude who owns the coin store, all the other stores are owned by Indians, or Pakistani. Hard to tell and I don't ask for their passports. And it doesn't seem like they are closing shop soon.

As far as asking God for his mercy. Rick Rule has been saying that some people are going to have a religious experience and unprecedented volatility. Just to remind you, unprecedented means, you have not seen it before, you ahve not experienced it before and likely you have not imagined it before. So basically you are preparing for the unknown. So it does seem as if we are on the edge of a very holy time. And he thought the very best thing that could happen to these markets is a total washout to wipe the slate clean. He continues to refuse to call a top or a bottom. Now I hope that doesn't happen where all the markets get squashed but you pretty much have no choice but to sit tight because you can't make money anywhere else. And those who are having such a religious experience that they have lost all bowel control and decide to sell, you will loose big time.


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