The Latest Gold and Silver Breakdown

468
Tue, May 8, 2012 - 1:34pm

Of course I'm not going to suggest that you attempt to catch the falling knife, however, those still trading may soon see an opportunity to buy.

First, let's look at the long-term chart we've been following for years. Is it possible for price to break DOWN and out of the channel? Of course it is, I just didn't think it would. But, similar to the break UP and out following the S&P downgrade of the U.S. last August, gold can break DOWN yet the overall trend remains in this "managed ascent".

Just for kicks, here is today's 5-minute chart. Roughly 6000 contracts dumped at the Comex open started the whitewash and has left gold clinging to support at the round number of 1600.

As we hold all core positions and use any and all bouts of weakness to add to physical stacks, where might there be a trade? Well, let's look closely at two longer-term charts. First, this daily chart. Note that gold remains in the same, old, $80-range down channel but also note the reflexive short-covering that has occurred on previous drops to the lower extreme of the channel.

And $1575 also looks like the beginning of support in this weekly chart, too. NOT saying that gold can't continue lower, through 1575, as it certainly can. However, anything between 1525 and 1575 sure looks like an attractive entry point for a possible trade.

Lastly, from a LONG TERM perspective, please keep this in mind: On 5/9/11 (May 8 was a Sunday), gold closed at $1503. This equates to a year-over-year return of nearly +7%. For perspective, the S&P 500 ended 5/9/11 at 1346. This equates to a year-over-year return of less than 1%. Stitch that into your clothes, Charlie, you FOAD!

Please hang in there and keep the faith. Your gold (and silver) is your only protection. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  468 Comments

abguy4
May 8, 2012 - 1:37pm

413th ~!?

It's about time~!

bulliondan
May 8, 2012 - 1:41pm

keep your eyes on the prize

Turd thanks for all of your efforts in helping to make some sense of all of this in what is an ever more confusing picture.

I just keep looking at that longer term chart and reminding myself of the fiat creation that is constantly underway and it makes days like today seem fairly unimportant in the great scheme of things - keep your eyes on the prize and hold on!

SV
May 8, 2012 - 1:47pm

This is THEIR Chance to Lessen Their Shorts

They've been lessening their shorts like CRAZY.

https://silvervigilante.com

sprite
May 8, 2012 - 1:54pm

exhaustion

Looks like an exhaustion move to me, and its in line with the Elliot Wave count.

SV
May 8, 2012 - 1:54pm

SLA

Check out this forum I found

https://silverliberationarmy.com

maybe we can plan joint actions?

apex101
May 8, 2012 - 2:00pm

Dear god help us.

Dear god help us.

bernard
May 8, 2012 - 2:05pm

So you know if you google

So you know if you google Blythe Masters pretty much all that shows up, besides her being a Big Swinging Dick for JPMorgan commodities, is that she is a big supporter of the Susan B. Komen Woman’s Cancer research fund. Does anyone else not see the gaping irony in this? It seems that Blythe Masters, the epitome and very manifestation of cancer in humanly form, when she is not defrauding the precious metals markets for millions (or perhaps billions… why don’t you open that derivatives book baby, and let us see how short you really are) she raises money for cancer awareness. Bernank finds this tremendously entertaining. Let’s see… In 2010, Blythe Masters raised $137,600 for Susan B. Komen Race for the Cure. That’s a little over half the total amount of money raised by “Team JP Morgan” which came in 2nd to Barclays. So silver traders, at least take pride in knowing that every time Blythe executes a sale of the World supply of Silver in a 1 minute tick (because execution and getting the best price is so 2008), some of the downside is donated to finding a cure for cancer. To quote wikipedia, “Masters is Board Chair of the NY Affiliate of the breast cancer charity, Susan G. Komen for the Cure, and a member of the Board of Directors of the National Dance Institute.” can you imagine what this broad is like in bed? Luckily her husband, Daniel Masters, probably spends more time drilling her head…. as he is conveniently hedge fund manager of Global Advisors, a big player in the “financial commodity markets”. His full title is “Director of Trading & Execution”, where I am sure he makes a lot of extra money front running all the Federal Reserve (through JPM) commodity market interventions. I bet him and Blythe make a good penny on the side front running these trades for their own books. Knowledge of these interventions I estimate is available up to 24 hours in advance, depending on what the S&P500 is doing (now 1350). Anyone who is paraded around and lauded as a genius for inventing “CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS” — those “INSANELY EXOTIC TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES” — must have a real banker’s conscience. I mean they are after all, just an insurance policy on bond debt, what’s so hard to understand? I pay a premium for you, in the case of a default, to pay out the whole value of a bond I own. The average ECON101 student could understand that. While George Carlin always talked about religion as being the ultimate field of snake-oil salesmen (God always needs more money), I disagree. These pseudo-intellectual, economist “trader” jerks are practicing the ultimate hubris. I am sure Blythe enjoys controlling world commodity prices, much much more than raising her daughter or servicing her husband. The suppression has become so obvious to anyone who follows markets. Huge orders going off instantly without regard for execution price are quoted as “fat fingers” when they are above 7,000 contracts (oops we triggered too many stops). Well that’s funny because that person seems to have a routinely fat, perhaps morbidly obese finger, that always fucking tips its fat little paw down SELL at 3 AM / 8:20 AM eastern in the pre-market. You would have to be purely foolish to look at this kind of price action as an interpretation of a working and orderly market. No, these gigantic sell orders are executed by JP Morgan, HSBC, and probably dozens of countless other LBMA / hedge fund identities, of which Daniel Masters is I am sure one of. So I ponder such a situation we find ourselves in today. It is good to recognize that the world of silver we have come to know is created by individuals colluding together for what they believe is the “greater good”. IE, they still think it is possible to get the US Economic recovery going again, by throwing money around and bidding up asset prices. Gold and Silver are the enemy, because they represent people taking money OUT of the ECONOMY (or at least the measurable one) and into SAVINGS. They view this as the antithesis of what needs to happen to get the “great economic machine working” again. They are so arrogant, their ideas about this machine so maligned. They are totally neglecting the INFORMATION REVOLUTION AGE which is coming online in greater acceleration at all times. This “INFORMATION REVOLUTION” means that anything, and I mean ANY HUMAN ACT, is getting to the point of being “outsourcable” through the internet. Talk to an ER doctor. When someone comes in early early in the morning with a broken limb, they do an MRI and send via email right to India! A physician there does a quick read and write up, at what fraction of the cost? This is why the US ECONOMY IS DOOMED. TPTB / populace in their arrogance have MISTAKEN financial innovation for ECONOMIC innovation for perhaps 20 years, because of USD status as a world reserve currency. To sum it up, the internet is ACCELERATING WAGE ABRITRAGE. This is no good for the average American who depends on other people to produce all goods. What will become of the USA? The commodities complex is the enemy of the Monetary Wizards, as it sheds light on the zero-sum nature of their money printing games. Sure, they can make the stock market go up, but when the correlation between the S&P500 and Oil is almost 1:1, is that really a good thing? Of course not! It’s all relative. There is no increase in real value, just all assets have gone up in relation to each other against a declining dollar. For now the weak euro is helping bolster the dollar which I believe, in the short termm, has made a close below $30 today possible. There are 3 and a half hours left in trading as of now… and on the day already silver has moved something like $4.00 in total price movement. Ponder that my friends. Good day to you all, you are all great people if you are reading this. Just know Bernank thinks about you every day, and no, I am not Bernanke, just Bernank, you remove the E and it’s like all the bad things go away. Silver has risen 20 cents since I started writing this, so maybe it will recover to close at $30. That would be bossy. Bernank

tpbeta
May 8, 2012 - 2:08pm

No silver charts?

Oh come on. Some of us don't give a toss about gold.

Marblesonac
May 8, 2012 - 2:09pm

pbfurn

Re: Volcker, you are right, my mistake...Don't know why I thought it was Greenspan.

"On November 15, 2004, The Nikkei Weekly published the following excerpt from Volcker’s memiors about the U.S. dollar revaluation that took place on February 12, 1973. Volcker writes:

"'That day the United States announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.' (https://www.gata.org/node/8209.)

"Got that? A former Federal Reserve chairman, the one credited for wringing inflation out of the U.S. dollar in the late 1970s and early 1980s, now a presidential adviser, says that for the U.S. government not to rig the gold market was a mistake.

"Volcker is still around to answer questions, but as far as we know, no financial journalist has ever asked him why not rigging the gold market was a mistake."

Marblesonac
May 8, 2012 - 2:11pm

Apex101

If there is a God, he is helping us...he gave us Turd, and Ron Paul, and silver and gold and beans and bullets and brains.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
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10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
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10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
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10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
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10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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