The Latest Gold and Silver Breakdown

Tue, May 8, 2012 - 1:34pm

Of course I'm not going to suggest that you attempt to catch the falling knife, however, those still trading may soon see an opportunity to buy.

First, let's look at the long-term chart we've been following for years. Is it possible for price to break DOWN and out of the channel? Of course it is, I just didn't think it would. But, similar to the break UP and out following the S&P downgrade of the U.S. last August, gold can break DOWN yet the overall trend remains in this "managed ascent".

Just for kicks, here is today's 5-minute chart. Roughly 6000 contracts dumped at the Comex open started the whitewash and has left gold clinging to support at the round number of 1600.

As we hold all core positions and use any and all bouts of weakness to add to physical stacks, where might there be a trade? Well, let's look closely at two longer-term charts. First, this daily chart. Note that gold remains in the same, old, $80-range down channel but also note the reflexive short-covering that has occurred on previous drops to the lower extreme of the channel.

And $1575 also looks like the beginning of support in this weekly chart, too. NOT saying that gold can't continue lower, through 1575, as it certainly can. However, anything between 1525 and 1575 sure looks like an attractive entry point for a possible trade.

Lastly, from a LONG TERM perspective, please keep this in mind: On 5/9/11 (May 8 was a Sunday), gold closed at $1503. This equates to a year-over-year return of nearly +7%. For perspective, the S&P 500 ended 5/9/11 at 1346. This equates to a year-over-year return of less than 1%. Stitch that into your clothes, Charlie, you FOAD!

Please hang in there and keep the faith. Your gold (and silver) is your only protection. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 9, 2012 - 3:42pm

@ Dr. G, Numerous thoughts

1) James Turk. He's about to drop off my short list. I don't know what he's done lately other than what you posted. I really don't believe that we will see $50 silver until about NEXT May. We may not even clear $40 untl Dec.-February. Remember, the last peak-to-peak interval was somewhere around 3 years or less. We could be waiting until *** '14 *** before that happens. In the meantime, stack the living shit out of this. I WISH I could!

2) Right, what you do at the coin shop doesn't affect the paper price, BUT what if everyone buys so much that the refiners have no choice but to refine firstly for the industrial users, secondly for the coin industry (because they would be beating the moat drawbridges off the hinges of the refiner's facilities, so to speak), with practically none left for delivery to COMEX? Make it somehow so that EVERYONE has to go to a refiner in a more direct way to get any metal, like if you are an industrial user or a business somewhere in the chain of the coin business.

Pretty much everything else is on the money.

However, it looks like Turd bet wrong again... He didn't THINK that the price would break down and out of the channel. How can you not think that, Turd? It's SUMMER TIME. That's what prices on gold silver have tended to do over the last 35 years. It's behaving like it's supposed to, and man, I am jealous of the opportunity people have in loading up and racking up supply orders on tangibles, because right now, I have a decent supply cache, BUT I want to get rid of my obligations in the event we return to debt prisons for pretty much anything, and I don't want people going looking for me. Will JPM or Citigroup come looking for me because I absconded on the remaining bill during the Great Collapse, with NOT debt collectors, but LIFE collectors (hint; armed with guns not to collect money, but bodies)?

May 9, 2012 - 3:16pm

BV update Beware!

Fr.Bill is incorrect as per what I just received form Bullion Vault:

"Your right to withdrawal can only be effected through BullionVault (and not from the vault
operator or its facilities directly) because only BullionVault has the means and responsibility
for identifying you reliably."

And the fees are a joke: Gold 7.5% fee under 400 oz., otherwise 2.5%. Silver 10% fee under 1000 oz. otherwise 2.5% Plus shipping cost AND 20% UK tax.

May 9, 2012 - 2:08pm

Right/Left/Right/Left: MAAAAARCH! A dog-walk in the park...

I had interjected into '47 and IRB and other's chats as they were using "right" and "left" to characterize their positions. I feel I must do it again.

Right/left is another falsehood, like false money, it is a false dichotomy that in accepting we march towards enslavement. It is to be rejected.

The real dichotomy is between freedom and coercion. Between liberty/free will, and control. I will relate a story to illustrate. Please read slowly and carefully. Multiple times. Let my words sink in, please, folks.

Today my dog, who likes to chase squirrels, as her DNA has her programmed to do, caught one. She was "playing with it" and it would soon have been dead had I not intervened. I was walking and talking with a highly intelligent and extremely well-informed philosopher I had met at the park at the time. He had earlier stooped to move a snail on the path out of harm's way.

I called in the stern, deep, voice-of-authority at my dog: "[dogname], NO!" several times. She soon heard me, stopped tossing the squirrel about, and it limped over to the tree, climbed up to lick its wounds, as my dog returned to my side.

But in the meantime, my philosopher-friend was shouting to me: "Why don't you run over and grab her???" clearly distressed at the scene he himself was running towards.

I would like to answer my friend's question here, because it is directly relevant to the discussion. I hope after reading my answer, you all understand why, and how it relates to the right/left discussion.

0) Dogs are pre-programmed to kill squirrels, but they also have free will. In a natural environment, this is a very natural interaction. Because we were not in a natural environment, but in a city in a park, and the dog did not need the squirrel-meat to survive, I chose to intervene.

1) There was a very good chance that had I focused on running to coercively stop the dog, and distracted my mind from what I knew was the right thing to do, I would have been too late to save the squirrel. I chose to stand my ground and clearly communicate a message to her mind.

2) My dog used her free will to make a decision. She heard me, she weighed the options, and her conscious mind chose to listen, and stop beating up the little squirrel.

3) As a result of having been forced to make a conscious choice, the synaptic weightings and neural interconnections in her brain were tweaked just slightly, in a way that will make it ever-so-slightly more probable that she will not kill the next squirrel, and be more responsive to my command in the next similar situation.

4) Had I used coercion, by running up and physically grabbing her collar, she would not have had to make a decision. Without decision, higher learning can't happen. Dogs, unlike people, are unable to philosophize, and so decisions, for them, must always occur in the here and now. Abstraction does not exist in the dog's mind. If I use coercion, I must always use coercion, and the dog does not learn. I see examples of these type of coercive owners and their ill-behaved pets daily.

I have never hit my dog. My dog enjoys more freedom than any other city dog I know. I take her daily, off-leash, while I ride my bicycle with her at my side. I ask her to lie and wait for me if I need to shop. She is there when I return, despite being at liberty to leave if she so chose. She waits for me to cross streets. Although she is at liberty to cross without me, she chooses my company. Every day I get comments about how well behaved she is, how beautiful and well-mannered.

This state of affairs did not spontaneously come to be. I learned from Cesar Milan how to "get into the now", which is where my dog's psyche spends its time, and how to interact with her in a way she would understand. For example, if she gets too far ahead while walking, I stop.

She learns that if we are to advance, we must do so together.

On my way back through the park after bidding my philosopher-friend farewell, I noticed a snail on the path.

I stooped, and moved it out of harm's way.

May 9, 2012 - 2:00pm

BV delivers

Thanks for the correction Fr.Bill, It's not part of their normal procedure as stated.

Eric Original
May 9, 2012 - 1:41pm

new thread

new thread

oops, chi-town already nailed it.

May 9, 2012 - 1:32pm

You are kidding right?

ethics and morals? whats that?

May 9, 2012 - 1:29pm

short covering in gold and silver near the close!

normally they smack the price into the close to paint the tape.

they are duhhh

May 9, 2012 - 1:25pm


I think its difficult enough as it is for the stacking community to bond together through these tough times. I have to say rawdog does not work well in groups lol

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May 9, 2012 - 1:23pm

Sellers beware!

Show's cheque for coins bounces As global economic situations worsen, ethics and morals will be less than governments( can you imagine worse?) , organizations, and individuals...shame really

May 9, 2012 - 1:20pm

Let me make this perfectly clear

I removed the video without watching it. Why? Because I think that guy is an asshole and I'm not going to give him the free publicity. Any douchebag with a webcam can start a YT channel but that doesn't mean I have to promote it.

Now, if you don't like that, so be it. If you want to listen to his bullshit, go to his site. It's not welcome here.

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