Driving Mama Ferg

355
Mon, May 7, 2012 - 9:31am

Just a quick note this morning as I will be leaving soon. Mama and Papa Ferg were visiting over the weekend and it falls to The Turd to drive them home today. I'll be checking things and checking in via iphone as we go through the day. Let's just hope that things don't get too crazy.

All that really matters today is that the Frenchy-French have decided to double-down on Keynesian socialism. Good for them. Might as well go down swinging printing. "But, Turd", you say, "how can zee French print zee money?" Good point. Just be patient.

In my humble opinion (and keep in mind that I do have a couple of decent contacts nowadays), here's what is going to happen (and keep in mind, I don't mean tomorrow or even next week).

  • France will be leaving the euro and will resume printing francs.
  • Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece will also be leaving. Perhaps uniting under a common currency, perhaps not.
  • Germany, The Netherlands, Finland et al will be keeping the euro as a common (and quite competitive) currency.

This is long-term very dollar negative. With the current euro in peril, The Pig continues to find support as the currency of last resort. Remove the peril and add some stability and responsibility and you're left with a new euro that becomes the preferred unit of exchange for for international settlements (like the sale of crude oil). In the meantime, the uncertainty of the situation will continue to drive nervous central banks, sovereign funds and HNW investors into the safety of barbarous relics.

Some rather remarkable action in the futures overnight. After trading off as many as 20 points overnight, S&P futures have rallied back and now stand down just three points as the NYSE prepares to open. Remarkable. Crude also fell overnight to a low of $95.34 but has since recovered $2.30. Yep, sell crude here. Absolutely. As far as I can tell, there's 0% chance of war/strife/disaster in the Middle East. Peace and Nirvana rule to infinity.

Anyway, the metals held up well all through the overnight. Could this have anything to do with London being closed today? Of course, I'm sure it's just coincidence that gold finally rolled over at 7:00 am EDT and has been under pressure ever since. Regardless, the area between 1625 and 1635 has been solid support for some time now and I do not expect that area to give way.

Silver continues to catch a bid near $30, too. Look, I know it's tough and the last two months have been brutal but you've got to hang in there. I don't know how long it will take but this will pass and silver is going much, much higher. Of that I am 100% certain. (Again, keep in mind that I have a couple of decent contacts nowadays.) Patience. Keep stacking and buying the dips.

OK, that's it. I gotta go. As mentioned above, I'll be keeping an eye on things all day and will add thoughts to the comments section if necessary. Have a fun day. I'll update with a new post this evening. TF

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  355 Comments

cpnscarlet
May 7, 2012 - 9:54am

Fukishima - Do the right thing

1. Find the cores, 2. Get as much of it as possible in steel or concrete casks, 3. Get the casks on a barge. 4. Park the barge over a deep ocean trench (3 - 5 miles down). 5. Sink the barge with all the equipment used.

The surface fish we eat will not be harmed since that much deep water will attenuate the radiation. The low currents in the trenches will not spread the heavy fuel far. The heat from the fuel will create some very interesting biospheres at that depth.

Got a better/quicker solution? Let's hear it.

redwings103149
May 7, 2012 - 9:57am

French

Turd,

I think you fail to miss the point of why the euro was created. It is a political currency created to prevent Germany from ever starting World War 3. There is simply no other option as protectionism would increase exponentially and the only true destroyer of wealth is war. Technology you cannot even fathom will continue to spur growth for the next millennium, but the only true threat is war. Yes, declining population growth will hurt stock market multiples in the West in favor of the likes of Brazil and India, but mark my words the world will keep spinning.

Gold remains neutral/slightly bearish until the 150sma is broken. Btw quick history lesson would show that the French will simply nationalize their banks (seems inevitable at this point) before even the whisper of them leaving the euro comes out. Don't rely too heavily on your "contacts" as well as their is no master plan, the president of the NY Fed is the same as you and I just with more robust models. Sometimes he is right sometimes he is wrong, but biggest fallacy is that these people can actually control a globally dynamic economies primary trend...impossible.

JP

Groaner
May 7, 2012 - 9:57am

silver is being spanked!

yup,, all this is very tedious..

NW VIEW
May 7, 2012 - 10:03am

GDXJ

Just hit new 52 week low!

Marblesonac
May 7, 2012 - 10:06am

Italy...

With more than 1000 tons of gold, the banksters won't let Italy leave the Euro until they've pledged it.

The goal is to steal as much gold, silver and real estate as possible before a collapse.

El Gordo
May 7, 2012 - 10:08am

Time to buy?

My real question is as follows: Is it time to buy a little, or is it time to buy a lot. I hate to completely deplete the dry powder keg, but now may the be time. Just can't decide.

Number 47
May 7, 2012 - 10:10am

Now I've heard (almost) everything!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17980177

South Korea says it will increase customs inspections targeting capsules containing powdered human flesh.

The Korea Customs Service said it had found almost 17,500 of the capsules being smuggled into the country from China since August 2011.

The powdered flesh, which officials said came from dead babies and foetuses, is reportedly thought by some to cure disease and boost stamina.

GroanerEl Gordo
May 7, 2012 - 10:10am

I would be in no rush to buy physical right now.

I think 1600 is in play and who knows for silver?

GroanerNumber 47
May 7, 2012 - 10:12am

This is truly false religion.

and they think we are crazy..

Mankind in general are a bunch of losers.. a very sad state of ignorance.

Number 47
May 7, 2012 - 10:13am

@el gordo.

Me too, buying still but considering a large purchase. My post from the end of the last thread.

Greek democracy in action.

Submitted by Number 47 on May 7, 2012 - 2:48pm.

Bailout resolutely rejected, austerity kicked to touch. the people have spoken.

Germany responds.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert spelt out Berlin's position that "the agreed programmes must be adhered to". He added that Germany would support Athens in returning to competitiveness and financial stability, "whatever its government is".

Hmm. Nothing to see here, move along.

The Germans must be worried by now, just the Irish referendum to finish the eurozone once and for all by the look of it.

Added a 1/2oz of gold and 12oz of silver today. Hoping prices will drop as they usually do when I buy, will be buying the same again tomorrow regardless. Weekly purchases from now on, no more dip buying for me. (Well, perhaps one more.)

Seriously considering converting the last of our cash savings in the credit union, it would yield another 1/2 kilo of gold. I'm expecting a crash in everything soon but this time I doubt there will be anything to buy. Things here in Europe could get real ugly, real soon.

Opinions please? Buy now or wait for the crash/central bank intervention. I must admit I'm at a loss for what to do regarding timing.

Oh. IRB. I paid the VAT on the silver this time.

And to be clear, my previous buys were marked correctly, no subterfuge, the government failed to collect, I declared as required. It would take a saint to volunteer, never mind a leftie. (and I'm far from sainthood)

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