Driving Mama Ferg

355
Mon, May 7, 2012 - 9:31am

Just a quick note this morning as I will be leaving soon. Mama and Papa Ferg were visiting over the weekend and it falls to The Turd to drive them home today. I'll be checking things and checking in via iphone as we go through the day. Let's just hope that things don't get too crazy.

All that really matters today is that the Frenchy-French have decided to double-down on Keynesian socialism. Good for them. Might as well go down swinging printing. "But, Turd", you say, "how can zee French print zee money?" Good point. Just be patient.

In my humble opinion (and keep in mind that I do have a couple of decent contacts nowadays), here's what is going to happen (and keep in mind, I don't mean tomorrow or even next week).

  • France will be leaving the euro and will resume printing francs.
  • Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece will also be leaving. Perhaps uniting under a common currency, perhaps not.
  • Germany, The Netherlands, Finland et al will be keeping the euro as a common (and quite competitive) currency.

This is long-term very dollar negative. With the current euro in peril, The Pig continues to find support as the currency of last resort. Remove the peril and add some stability and responsibility and you're left with a new euro that becomes the preferred unit of exchange for for international settlements (like the sale of crude oil). In the meantime, the uncertainty of the situation will continue to drive nervous central banks, sovereign funds and HNW investors into the safety of barbarous relics.

Some rather remarkable action in the futures overnight. After trading off as many as 20 points overnight, S&P futures have rallied back and now stand down just three points as the NYSE prepares to open. Remarkable. Crude also fell overnight to a low of $95.34 but has since recovered $2.30. Yep, sell crude here. Absolutely. As far as I can tell, there's 0% chance of war/strife/disaster in the Middle East. Peace and Nirvana rule to infinity.

Anyway, the metals held up well all through the overnight. Could this have anything to do with London being closed today? Of course, I'm sure it's just coincidence that gold finally rolled over at 7:00 am EDT and has been under pressure ever since. Regardless, the area between 1625 and 1635 has been solid support for some time now and I do not expect that area to give way.

Silver continues to catch a bid near $30, too. Look, I know it's tough and the last two months have been brutal but you've got to hang in there. I don't know how long it will take but this will pass and silver is going much, much higher. Of that I am 100% certain. (Again, keep in mind that I have a couple of decent contacts nowadays.) Patience. Keep stacking and buying the dips.

OK, that's it. I gotta go. As mentioned above, I'll be keeping an eye on things all day and will add thoughts to the comments section if necessary. Have a fun day. I'll update with a new post this evening. TF

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Driven81Basil
May 8, 2012 - 11:32am

Basil, I shorted silver at $33

It does take balls, but if you can somewhat differentiate your emotional attachment from your money it does make it easier. But keep in mind, you have not lost anything....you are winning just by having made a single purchase.

Basil
May 8, 2012 - 11:19am

Here we are below $1600

Wish I'd had the balls to short the metals today. Would have hoovered up $$$.

Just such a hard thing to do , particularly with 9 out of 10 bloggers telling the world what wonderful investments they are. Nevertheless I have no-one to blame but myself for missing the opportunity.

"Just keep UNstacking" would have worked brilliantly all the way down from $1900

binzer
May 8, 2012 - 11:19am

Sure the salesmen will be out

Sure the salesmen will be out in force telling us it's the buying opportunity of a lifetime :)

Unfortunately they repeat the same mantra whatever the price

BUDDHA PRINCESS
May 8, 2012 - 11:14am
BUDDHA PRINCESS
May 8, 2012 - 11:12am
Driven81
May 8, 2012 - 11:04am

James Turk, proven wrong, as he speaks

"I still believe the lows for both gold and silver were made earlier in the year.” James Turk - May 7th 2012 https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/7_Tu... May 8th, gold damn near touches $1,600, silver $29.30 Some people need to wake up quit writing in stone things like "it cannot possibly go down any further....this is certainly it here" If you've got money on the line, you better be careful who you listen to. Since having diversified the opinions I listen to, I have made about forty ounces of silver...pure profit, and in the last three or four months. If you're only stacking, it doesn't matter who says what. You are safe always. But if you've got money on the line, you better take everything you hear with a grain of salt. Nothing is absolute in any market, manipulated or not. That being said, each person I listen to and follow (including james turk), has contributed greatly to my knowledge and for that I am extremely thankful.

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Keg
May 8, 2012 - 10:56am
Zoltan
May 8, 2012 - 10:55am

Flying Monkees Hammer Prices

Fucking Fuckers.

Apologies to the easily offended.

There, I feel better.

Turd. How bad is the TITS sagging?

Z

Driven81
May 8, 2012 - 10:53am

^ Exactly...

I've got extra dry powder for that range myself. I'll be loadin up the boat baby.

Santa's Elf
May 8, 2012 - 10:50am

Bottom? Don't think so

While I don't think TA has all the answers, this silver movement since we hit $50 is pretty consistent with a double zig-zag pattern that will take us down to the $26 level. Say what you want about Elliot Wave, but it's shaping up nicely and I'm not a buyer until then. If I miss the boat, c'est la vie.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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