Driving Mama Ferg
Just a quick note this morning as I will be leaving soon. Mama and Papa Ferg were visiting over the weekend and it falls to The Turd to drive them home today. I'll be checking things and checking in via iphone as we go through the day. Let's just hope that things don't get too crazy.
All that really matters today is that the Frenchy-French have decided to double-down on Keynesian socialism. Good for them. Might as well go down
swinging printing. "But, Turd", you say, "how can zee French print zee money?" Good point. Just be patient.
In my humble opinion (and keep in mind that I do have a couple of decent contacts nowadays), here's what is going to happen (and keep in mind, I don't mean tomorrow or even next week).
- France will be leaving the euro and will resume printing francs.
- Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece will also be leaving. Perhaps uniting under a common currency, perhaps not.
- Germany, The Netherlands, Finland et al will be keeping the euro as a common (and quite competitive) currency.
This is long-term very dollar negative. With the current euro in peril, The Pig continues to find support as the currency of last resort. Remove the peril and add some stability and responsibility and you're left with a new euro that becomes the preferred unit of exchange for for international settlements (like the sale of crude oil). In the meantime, the uncertainty of the situation will continue to drive nervous central banks, sovereign funds and HNW investors into the safety of barbarous relics.
Some rather remarkable action in the futures overnight. After trading off as many as 20 points overnight, S&P futures have rallied back and now stand down just three points as the NYSE prepares to open. Remarkable. Crude also fell overnight to a low of $95.34 but has since recovered $2.30. Yep, sell crude here. Absolutely. As far as I can tell, there's 0% chance of war/strife/disaster in the Middle East. Peace and Nirvana rule to infinity.
Anyway, the metals held up well all through the overnight. Could this have anything to do with London being closed today? Of course, I'm sure it's just coincidence that gold finally rolled over at 7:00 am EDT and has been under pressure ever since. Regardless, the area between 1625 and 1635 has been solid support for some time now and I do not expect that area to give way.
Silver continues to catch a bid near $30, too. Look, I know it's tough and the last two months have been brutal but you've got to hang in there. I don't know how long it will take but this will pass and silver is going much, much higher. Of that I am 100% certain. (Again, keep in mind that I have a couple of decent contacts nowadays.) Patience. Keep stacking and buying the dips.
OK, that's it. I gotta go. As mentioned above, I'll be keeping an eye on things all day and will add thoughts to the comments section if necessary. Have a fun day. I'll update with a new post this evening. TF