Compilation of Comments

417
Fri, May 4, 2012 - 4:38pm

For a weekend open thread and discussion, I though I'd give you a compilation of the comments I've added throughout the day to the previous thread. I do this for three reasons:

  1. There are some pretty good insights that would be missed otherwise by those who only read the main threads and not the comments that follow.
  2. I'm too lazy to type a new thread.
  3. I'm out of time and I need to go cut the grass. Not that the grass needs mowing per se. But I need the stress relief and the Friday afternoon beer always tastes that much better after working up a good sweat.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 10:43am.
MODERATOR

Remember, BoA recently repositioned $53T in CDS from their ML subsidiary to their BoA NA sub. In preparation for a default which they can pass along onto the American taxpayer??

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/gift-keeps-taking-bank-america-facing-62-billion-collateral-call

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/bofa-said-to-split-regulators-over-moving-merrill-derivatives-to-bank-unit.html

Re: The Dying Comex

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 11:16am.
MODERATOR

This chart lays it out pretty well.

What is the bond market telling us?

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 11:51am.
MODERATOR

Based on bond prices alone, overt QE does not look imminent. However, why the rally today? And why is the 30-yr not participating at the same rate as the 10-yr? Note that the spread has compressed to just 120 basis points. And who, for the love of pete, is willing to give money to Uncle Sam for 30 years at an annual yield of just over 3%?

Regardless, block out all the noise about WOPRs and OI and CoTs and the like and you're left with an investment climate of negative, real interest rates. Negative, real rates have always been and always will be one of, if not the, driving factor behind precious metal accumulation. More here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Here's a great Rick Santelli video from this morning:

https://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088399&play=1

Lousy CoT

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 3:02pm.
MODERATOR
Yuck. From a CoT perspective, nothing to write home about this week.

GOLD

​The rise of OI from the bottom near 395,000 was due to some new spec longs and some new bank longs absorbed by a 15,000 increase in The Cartel short position (net short addition of nearly 11,000). Looks like The Cartel is not ready to see gold rise anytime soon.

SILVER

The drop of OI was due to everybody exiting at once. Spec longs, EE longs, EE shorts all down and the EE net short ratio expanded to 1.56:1. Again, yuck.

After the good CoTs of the past few weeks, this one is s real downer. Looks like The Cartels are not expecting, nor are they going to allow, a significant move higher anytime soon.

On that note, have a happy weekend!

And, finally:

I've always thought that

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 3:13pm.
MODERATOR

I've always thought that Louise Yamada was the best technician on the planet. Heed her words:

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/4_Yamada_-_Gold_%26_Silver_at_Critical_Points_in_This_Cycle.html

I HOPE THAT EVERYONE HAS A SAFE AND RELAXING WEEKEND! TF

p.s. I've got Bodemeister in The Derby tomorrow. Yes, I realize that no horse that was unraced as a 2-year old has won The Derby since, like, 1887 or something. Who cares. I'm on him!

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steveo
May 10, 2012 - 5:30pm

People have recency bias.  I

People have recency bias.

I believe this is hardwired.

It is hard to get around.

When the tape get whippy and rampy like this, people get stopped out of positions, 2 or 3 times, then they reduce their position size or tighten stops even tighter, or they sit out.

The market has "classic deception" moves and setups.

We are in one of them.

I predict the move is down big on US equities.

As per MarketSniper--The Market will act so as to cause you to act against your best interest.

Don't be deceived.

this also means Bucky up, and Gold down most likely. With the Munger comments on MSM and this setup, this is a buying opportunity, get your powder ready

Gold at 1500 or 1400 will be nice when we know 95% sure that it is just a game to flush out the weak hands and get people scared of gold so they can continue to pimp their ponzi fiat.

SilverLeaf
May 7, 2012 - 3:54pm

Four reasons silver seems tarnished for now

https://seekingalpha.com/article/554851-4-reasons-silver-seems-tarnished...

1) Persistent contango

2) Declining open interest

3) ETF fund outflows

4) lower premiums on physical

murphy
May 7, 2012 - 10:33am

CFA

Good stuff from Barry

Maximillion
May 7, 2012 - 10:16am

Re Hollande wants end of $

Hollande may want an end to the $, and tie up with the Brics basket of currencies, but he's gotta get out of the Euro first. Interestingly France withdrew from the Gold Pool price fixing cartel in the 1968 under De Gaulle (who as a socialist did not not want the $), leading to the mass conversion of $'s to metal, and the dropping of the Gold standard by Nixon in the 70's.

Combined with Greece and the Shanghai exchange opening, it sure looks like the Battle Royalle is starting right now. If the Cartel smacks down the price this week it's time to back up the truck and load up with physical.

Fred Hayek
May 7, 2012 - 10:13am

Xty's comments re charity

I agree with another poster that there's some value in an example being shown to people.

But I agree more strongly with Xty that there's a creepy element of self-aggrandizement to a lot of conspicuous philanthropy.

As an example of the latter, I remember P.J. O'Rourke writing about the Gore family over a decade ago. Mama and Papa Pretentious and all the little pretensions were traveling through D.C. and saw a couple of homeless men and apparently felt some pity for them.

So, what did they do? Did they get out of their limo and give them some money on the spot? No. Did they work themselves up into a lather about it till they went down to the nearest soup kitchen or Salvation Army and donate their time and resources. No.

They started some bullshit program to "heighten awareness" about the plight of the homeless. Basically, they declared themselves moral watchdogs and hectored other people to do something about it. Nice work if you can get it. You don't actually give any of your money. Heaven forbid! And you don't actually have to meet and, ick!, touch the dirty, smelly homeless. Those people don't even bathe, never mind use Kiehl's exfoliator and moisturizer! But you get to go around acting morally superior to everyone because you care so much.

That story is why I tend to agree with Xty on this issue. Somewhere along the line the conspicuousness of philanthropy became more important than the philanthropy itself for a lot of those involved.

Number 47
May 7, 2012 - 10:12am

New thread

New thread is up.

pbfurn
May 7, 2012 - 9:50am

Hollande wants end of $

So far, he is looking pretty smart....

Number 47
May 7, 2012 - 9:50am

Greek democracy in action.

Bailout resolutely rejected, austerity kicked to touch. the people have spoken.

Germany responds.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert spelt out Berlin's position that "the agreed programmes must be adhered to". He added that Germany would support Athens in returning to competitiveness and financial stability, "whatever its government is".

Hmm. Nothing to see here, move along.

The Germans must be worried by now, just the Irish referendum to finish the eurozone once and for all by the look of it.

Added a 1/2oz of gold and 12oz of silver today. Hoping prices will drop as they usually do when I buy, will be buying the same again tomorrow regardless. Weekly purchases from now on, no more dip buying for me. (Well, perhaps one more.)

Seriously considering converting the last of our cash savings in the credit union, it would yield another 1/2 kilo of gold. I'm expecting a crash in everything soon but this time I doubt there will be anything to buy. Things here in Europe could get real ugly, real soon.

Opinions please? Buy now or wait for the crash/central bank intervention. I must admit I'm at a loss for what to do regarding timing.

Oh. IRB. I paid the VAT on the silver this time.

And to be clear, my previous buys were marked correctly, no subterfuge, the government failed to collect, I declared as required. It would take a saint to volunteer, never mind a leftie. (and I'm far from sainthood)

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opticsguy
May 7, 2012 - 9:42am

how does buying gold destroy capital?

When I write a check for a Krug, does that $1700 go under a mattress somewhere? No, it is deposited in a bank, and that money remains in the system, and maybe it will turn into a few shares of AAPL or GOOG or Facebook.

In return, I have an asset that I can turn back into fiat easily. Unlike my house, which requires $1000/month for taxes, insurance and utilities, gold is not a sink for capital, and doesn't depreciate like a car.

Green Lantern
May 7, 2012 - 9:37am

bill gates

I took a quick look at the Bill gates foundation website. Hmmm, let's see. Lots of money goes to vaccines, 9 pharmaceutical companies to dispense drugs around the world, and look at that....they are converting Africa to GMO's so for the hungry people of Africa.

They fight world hunger but the paradox is that there is already enough resources in the world to feed everybody but certain powers make it so it's unavailable.

Love the illusion that he is able to perpetuate of being a generous human.

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