Compilation of Comments

Fri, May 4, 2012 - 4:38pm

For a weekend open thread and discussion, I though I'd give you a compilation of the comments I've added throughout the day to the previous thread. I do this for three reasons:

  1. There are some pretty good insights that would be missed otherwise by those who only read the main threads and not the comments that follow.
  2. I'm too lazy to type a new thread.
  3. I'm out of time and I need to go cut the grass. Not that the grass needs mowing per se. But I need the stress relief and the Friday afternoon beer always tastes that much better after working up a good sweat.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 10:43am.

Remember, BoA recently repositioned $53T in CDS from their ML subsidiary to their BoA NA sub. In preparation for a default which they can pass along onto the American taxpayer??

Re: The Dying Comex

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 11:16am.

This chart lays it out pretty well.

What is the bond market telling us?

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 11:51am.

Based on bond prices alone, overt QE does not look imminent. However, why the rally today? And why is the 30-yr not participating at the same rate as the 10-yr? Note that the spread has compressed to just 120 basis points. And who, for the love of pete, is willing to give money to Uncle Sam for 30 years at an annual yield of just over 3%?

Regardless, block out all the noise about WOPRs and OI and CoTs and the like and you're left with an investment climate of negative, real interest rates. Negative, real rates have always been and always will be one of, if not the, driving factor behind precious metal accumulation. More here:

Here's a great Rick Santelli video from this morning:

Lousy CoT

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 3:02pm.
Yuck. From a CoT perspective, nothing to write home about this week.


​The rise of OI from the bottom near 395,000 was due to some new spec longs and some new bank longs absorbed by a 15,000 increase in The Cartel short position (net short addition of nearly 11,000). Looks like The Cartel is not ready to see gold rise anytime soon.


The drop of OI was due to everybody exiting at once. Spec longs, EE longs, EE shorts all down and the EE net short ratio expanded to 1.56:1. Again, yuck.

After the good CoTs of the past few weeks, this one is s real downer. Looks like The Cartels are not expecting, nor are they going to allow, a significant move higher anytime soon.

On that note, have a happy weekend!

And, finally:

I've always thought that

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 3:13pm.

I've always thought that Louise Yamada was the best technician on the planet. Heed her words:


p.s. I've got Bodemeister in The Derby tomorrow. Yes, I realize that no horse that was unraced as a 2-year old has won The Derby since, like, 1887 or something. Who cares. I'm on him!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 4, 2012 - 4:46pm

First first?

Oh yeah. I am done now. Thanks.

Great comments by the way TF. Love it when you mingle in the threads. Real time thoughts from the man and the legend. Priceless.

Hard Rain
May 4, 2012 - 4:46pm

That's a whole lotsa comments.....

And I thought I had the weekend off!!!


May 4, 2012 - 4:48pm


It's been an interesting few days. Glad the weekend is finally upon us.

That Louise Yamada piece over at KWN was interesting - looks like Gold (and Silver) is either going to go up in price, or it may go down. I'm guessing one of those two directions will be correct.

May 4, 2012 - 4:50pm

The "after mowing" beer is

The "after mowing" beer is probably the only thing I miss about drinking since I quit...nothing tastier...except maybe that "after a steak" cigarette I no longer have since I quit smoking! Damn, I've turned into a boring old codger right in front of my own eyes!!

Gotta keep stacking; nothing else "tasty" left to do!

Silver Meddler
May 4, 2012 - 4:54pm
May 4, 2012 - 5:00pm

Phew! Not First!

Talk about being in the doldrums! If we were sailing, the sails would be pretty slack, while the sharks (the EE) keep incessantly circling us waiting for more PM's to "fall" overboard!

Sell in May and go away? Me thinks this Summer may turn out to be an outlier.

Too many things on the burner ~ political and financial, both with an effect upon each.

May we live in interesting times indeed!

Have a safe and happy weekend everyone.

May 4, 2012 - 5:00pm

TF Metals Comment Blog

TF Metals has the best comments this shit might as well be its OWN WEBSITE! Hat Tip!!!

May 4, 2012 - 5:02pm

CoT Index Turned!!!!

Hey Turd guys and girls, the CoT index that I've been following just turned, the bottom is in!!! Everyone should now resume stacking with confidence. CoT index is (Commercial Long - Commercial Short) / Open Interest. Focus on times when the index is rising while the price of silver is declining, and what happens when the index turns and starts declining. I started making some stats about times when this happens and what to expect, hopefully I'll get time this weekend to complete them and post them here. BUY BUY BUY!!!

Edit: Turd told me to post this here, the chart anyway, not my opinion.

May 4, 2012 - 5:08pm

Maybe they hold off on QE

Maybe they hold off on QE in hopes of oil going lower. Lower gas prices along with manipulated BLS statistics showing slowing falling unemployment, lower participation rate or not, Obama gets back in. The fireworks start sometime thereafter. In the meantime, we have have more time to accumulate physical for at least 6-8 months, maybe longer.

We all know that sooner or later the wheels come off the current system. Either way I would rather spend my hard earned fiat/digital credits from my direct deposit paycheck to tangibles, whether it be ag, au, fe, pb, brass, etc. Lately I have been including rolls of pennies (in search of pre 1982) and nickels, along with regular conversions to rolls of quarters and halves that I search for ag (no finds yet). Since I have years and years before retirement I am committed to conversion to all types of metals, along with my hedge of pension and 401k stock market investments. I have found that a full coffee can of common coins can yield well over $300 of dry powder, and is more immutable and less spendable than wads of deteriorating paper.

May 4, 2012 - 5:26pm

Turd, you mean you don't

Turd, you mean you don't drink the first one before you even pull the starter cord?

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