Compilation of Comments

Fri, May 4, 2012 - 4:38pm

For a weekend open thread and discussion, I though I'd give you a compilation of the comments I've added throughout the day to the previous thread. I do this for three reasons:

  1. There are some pretty good insights that would be missed otherwise by those who only read the main threads and not the comments that follow.
  2. I'm too lazy to type a new thread. 
  3. I'm out of time and I need to go cut the grass. Not that the grass needs mowing per se. But I need the stress relief and the Friday afternoon beer always tastes that much better after working up a good sweat.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 10:43am.

Remember, BoA recently repositioned $53T in CDS from their ML subsidiary to their BoA NA sub. In preparation for a default which they can pass along onto the American taxpayer??

Re: The Dying Comex

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 11:16am.

This chart lays it out pretty well.

What is the bond market telling us?

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 11:51am.

Based on bond prices alone, overt QE does not look imminent. However, why the rally today? And why is the 30-yr not participating at the same rate as the 10-yr? Note that the spread has compressed to just 120 basis points. And who, for the love of pete, is willing to give money to Uncle Sam for 30 years at an annual yield of just over 3%?

Regardless, block out all the noise about WOPRs and OI and CoTs and the like and you're left with an investment climate of negative, real interest rates. Negative, real rates have always been and always will be one of, if not the, driving factor behind precious metal accumulation. More here:

Here's a great Rick Santelli video from this morning:

Lousy CoT

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 3:02pm.
Yuck. From a CoT perspective, nothing to write home about this week.


​The rise of OI from the bottom near 395,000 was due to some new spec longs and some new bank longs absorbed by a 15,000 increase in The Cartel short position (net short addition of nearly 11,000). Looks like The Cartel is not ready to see gold rise anytime soon.


The drop of OI was due to everybody exiting at once. Spec longs, EE longs, EE shorts all down and the EE net short ratio expanded to 1.56:1. Again, yuck.

After the good CoTs of the past few weeks, this one is s real downer. Looks like The Cartels are not expecting, nor are they going to allow, a significant move higher anytime soon.

On that note, have a happy weekend! 

And, finally:

I've always thought that

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 4, 2012 - 3:13pm.

I've always thought that Louise Yamada was the best technician on the planet. Heed her words:


p.s. I've got Bodemeister in The Derby tomorrow. Yes, I realize that no horse that was unraced as a 2-year old has won The Derby since, like, 1887 or something. Who cares. I'm on him!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


OrangeAlert · May 4, 2012 - 4:46pm

First first?

Oh yeah. I am done now. Thanks.

Great comments by the way TF. Love it when you mingle in the threads. Real time thoughts from the man and the legend. Priceless.

Hard Rain · May 4, 2012 - 4:46pm

That's a whole lotsa comments.....

And I thought I had the weekend off!!!


ReachWest · May 4, 2012 - 4:48pm


It's been an interesting few days. Glad the weekend is finally upon us.

That Louise Yamada piece over at KWN was interesting - looks like Gold (and Silver) is either going to go up in price, or it may go down. I'm guessing one of those two directions will be correct.

philly · May 4, 2012 - 4:50pm

The "after mowing" beer is

The "after mowing" beer is probably the only thing I miss about drinking since I quit...nothing tastier...except maybe that "after a steak" cigarette I no longer have since I quit smoking! Damn, I've turned into a boring old codger right in front of my own eyes!!

Gotta keep stacking; nothing else "tasty" left to do!

Silver Meddler · May 4, 2012 - 4:54pm
dropout · May 4, 2012 - 5:00pm

Phew! Not First!

Talk about being in the doldrums! If we were sailing, the sails would be pretty slack, while the sharks (the EE) keep incessantly circling us waiting for more PM's to "fall" overboard! 

Sell in May and go away? Me thinks this Summer may turn out to be an outlier.

Too many things on the burner ~ political and financial, both with an effect upon each.

May we live in interesting times indeed!

Have a safe and happy weekend everyone. 

SV · May 4, 2012 - 5:00pm

TF Metals Comment Blog

TF Metals has the best comments this shit might as well be its OWN WEBSITE! Hat Tip!!!

rtabit · May 4, 2012 - 5:02pm

CoT Index Turned!!!!

Hey Turd guys and girls, the CoT index that I've been following just turned, the bottom is in!!! Everyone should now resume stacking with confidence. CoT index is (Commercial Long - Commercial Short) / Open Interest. Focus on times when the index is rising while the price of silver is declining, and what happens when the index turns and starts declining. I started making some stats about times when this happens and what to expect, hopefully I'll get time this weekend to complete them and post them here. BUY BUY BUY!!!

Edit: Turd told me to post this here, the chart anyway, not my opinion.

Ojibwemowin · May 4, 2012 - 5:08pm

Maybe they hold off on QE

Maybe they hold off on QE in hopes of oil going lower. Lower gas prices along with manipulated BLS statistics showing slowing falling unemployment, lower participation rate or not, Obama gets back in. The fireworks start sometime thereafter. In the meantime, we have have more time to accumulate physical for at least 6-8 months, maybe longer.

We all know that sooner or later the wheels come off the current system. Either way I would rather spend my hard earned fiat/digital credits from my direct deposit paycheck to tangibles, whether it be ag, au, fe, pb, brass, etc. Lately I have been including rolls of pennies (in search of pre 1982) and nickels, along with regular conversions to rolls of quarters and halves that I search for ag (no finds yet). Since I have years and years before retirement I am committed to conversion to all types of metals, along with my hedge of pension and 401k stock market investments. I have found that a full coffee can of common coins can yield well over $300 of dry powder, and is more immutable and less spendable than wads of deteriorating paper. 

steveo · May 4, 2012 - 5:26pm

Turd, you mean you don't

Turd, you mean you don't drink the first one before you even pull the starter cord?

Lumpy · May 4, 2012 - 5:31pm

The dollar index up today +.28 to 79.49

Gold and Silver also up today. This is not the norm, and I'll look at it as a positive for the PM's going into next week.

thesandbox · May 4, 2012 - 5:32pm
steveo Lumpy · May 4, 2012 - 5:34pm

Pretty much that means the

Pretty much that means the swan is warming up.

The Doc · May 4, 2012 - 5:34pm

"Civilized People Don't Buy Gold'

*Repost from last thread as I missed TF's new thread and this has me livid.

You wanna see the definition of a troll?
Berkshire's Vice Chairman Charlie Munger was on CNBS today...when asked about his thoughts on gold, the prick said, and I quote directly: "gold is a great thing to sew onto your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939 but civilized people don't buy gold"

I'm not even Jewish and I am fired up! Keep up the amazing work Turd, when the establishment has to compare those who own gold to pre-holocaust Jews and state that civilized people don't buy gold, clearly our efforts at educating the general public are gaining traction, and the elite are pissing their pants. 

Howard Buffett is rolling in his grave somewhere in Nebraska.

steveo · May 4, 2012 - 5:35pm

Well, the ol' Hawaii Trader

Well, the ol' Hawaii Trader been pretty much nailing it.

Got to be careful though....start getting cocky and "pressing your advantage" and increasing your position size is a great piggy way to really get B-slapped and have your profits stripped away.

Pretty much 95% of the time when I have gotten piggy in the past, I did get slapped hard --- really about 90% of the time. Those odds are amazing.

Ill do some analysis on the weekend, but the blue egg is IMHO opinion "too steep" but we should be at least aware of an oversold bounce possible. We should also be aware that equity drops as gold increases are the pre-squacking of a black swan.

And look where we are at in relation to the HT trademarked Bernoulli channel....what I consider to be the true channels which catch outliers and denote true trend changes (or at least strong wave 2 or B waves). We are right at the B177 channel line, if this breaks Kansas go bye-bye whether you took the red pill or the blue pill.....

The Doc · May 4, 2012 - 5:37pm

also, nice call Turd on

also, nice call Turd on today's pop in gold and silver post the NFP BS on what is typically a classic cartel PM raiding day. Glad to see silver close the week above $30. Lets hope that right shoulder stays intact next week.

Monedas · May 4, 2012 - 5:42pm

Rush's Agents Provocateurs May Monitor TF and ZH and ergo Me !

  • Cackle du Jour ! I was "flabberexpialidociousgasted" when I heard Rush say that these BLSBS reports are nothing more than phone surveys ??? It's not even hard tax with holding or unemployment claims !?!?!? What a "Cheese Crock o' Crap" ??? Might as well ask Dan Rather what he thinks !!! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Inverse Reverse Universe Dancing Wiener

DaddyO · May 4, 2012 - 5:46pm

Will this make PMs and crude pop?

I saw this over at Drudge, no one else is reporting the story.

Turd, have you seen anything at Debka on this story?


I Run Bartertown · May 4, 2012 - 5:55pm


That bottom chart is interesting. I was not aware of the scale of the difference. 

We're really dealing with half a gold bull and half a dying pig. Hmm..dead pig=bacon, bacon=gold, we've bred a Bacon Bull!

beinki · May 4, 2012 - 5:55pm
OrangeAlert · May 4, 2012 - 6:02pm

@The Doc's comment

"gold is a great thing to sew onto your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939 but civilized people don't buy gold"

When I saw that I was pretty pissed about it too.

He is talking about the same Jewish people that were exterminated while trying to flee with their wealth in hand right? So does that mean if you are "civilized" you would also be on the side that would do the exterminating? Or is he trying to say that gold is only good if you're trying to flee with your life and wealth? Or both?

This may be a leap of logic and not what he intended, but that's what when through my mind when I first read it. Very backward, but possibly very telling IMO.

Number 47 · May 4, 2012 - 6:22pm

Expect disaster in Europe soon.

Greek elections are looking very shaky, no government is a real possibility, riots are a given. the rise of the far-right and far-left is far from marginal and the situation is ripe for violence.

Hollande looks set to topple Sarkozy, the language in Europe is already changing with the realisation with Brussells coming out with an idea to relax policy all of a sudden. Austerity is the spawn of the devil here suddenly. Merkozy is dead, long live ....... Merkel is on her own suddenly.

One thing that is quietly forgotten, we voters in Ireland have the joy of a referendum this May 31st, a yes vote is required to cement the European bailout fund, more Draconian sanctions and various other insidious conditions. A no vote will kill the euro pretty quick, (unless they make us vote again like last time) and a no vote is looking possible. People are sick of austerity for the masses and none for the banks.

Plenty of black swans circling here in the distance.

50sQuiff · May 4, 2012 - 6:29pm


I'm sure a psychologist could go to town on why Munger may have used such a strange analogy. His comment speaks to a) the gravity of our current situation and b) the sole asset class capabale of withstanding such a crisis.

Anyway Turd, I'm not sweating the COT too much. They smashed us for $50 in the meantime.

Roark · May 4, 2012 - 6:34pm

Laughing at Munger

He is appropriately named, ya know? :)

As far as being grumped at him..... Dont be. Those sewing PMs into their overcoats HAD THE STUFF IN THE FIRST PLACE. Flash-forward to 2012: How many folks these days have that kind of common sense to hold a universal currency? 

Remind me to check my stock of needles and thread.... :)

¤ · May 4, 2012 - 6:34pm


One week or several doesn't define a 10 year trend. Shake this week off and move on.

Like TF stated several weeks ago...we look to be in a period like mid to late 2008 right now.

I completely agree.

gold Technical chart [Kitco Inc.]

I don't see this trend changing anytime too soon. The debt isn't going away.

This is probably the most important chart to keep in mind. This trend isn't reversing itself anytime soon. Sad but true.

Blue Sky · May 4, 2012 - 6:41pm


"We should also be aware that equity drops as gold increases are the pre-squacking of a black swan".

Couldn't have said it better although the Bard quote :

"Like flies to wanton boys are we to the gods, (EE) they kill us for their sport."

The action today was totally out of control. DOW was down and regained 100 points in the blink of an eye. The HUI was way down and the tell of manipulation was all over the market.

With a heavy knee in my back and my head pulled back I lost a little of my habitual optimism. I took some profits even though it may be premature.

Caution is all.

dropout OrangeAlert · May 4, 2012 - 6:43pm

Ole Charley Has lost the Plot!

"If you ask me, this boy's cheese has slipped off his cracker!" (from "The Green Mile") 

Ole Charley's comment may be construed as anti semite. Is he saying that people who try to preserve their wealth are not civilized? Or is he saying that those poor unfortunates caught up in Hitler's hell are not civilized? In which case ~ who is the barbarian? 

Time for Ole Charley to hang up his office visor, hand in his abacus and call it a day. If he once had a plot - he has since long lost it! Yes, I agree that Mr. Buffett (snr) is indeed rolling over in his grave! Me thinks if he were still alive, he would walk into Ole Charley's office and smack him upside the head for being so stupid!

Dr G · May 4, 2012 - 6:48pm

Yamada says not enough

Yamada says not enough momentum for a big silver move. $27 may be in the cards. Support is at $25. 

Fully agree. Turd said it best: "heed her words".

My words: you have been warned. Get your cash ready to buy physical. 

PMs will not have a sustained pop until formal QE. I don't want it to be that way, but that is the evidence from the past 9 months. 

Number 47 · May 4, 2012 - 6:52pm

@I run bartertown.

I replied to your post on the old thread. A couple of points I'd like to add to it though.

1. i think Americans have an extremely narrow view of Socialism. We are very different here in Europe, we are not all Marxists. There are many degrees of this view, I am quite center left but I also hold some right wing views, I am interested in a system that works, I do not blindly follow the left or right as it seems some do. Both sides have their merits.

2. I don't rant about the right, nor call them names or denigrate them in any way. I see them as the much needed balance to the left. Neither side should have ultimate say, the swings between the two are what makes the world possible for us all to live in, right up until it swings too far in one direction. I guess right now we are going through a period of volatility.

Cleburne61 · May 4, 2012 - 7:08pm

@ TF Lousy COT

Turd, you're a good reader of the COT, but considering it's via Tuesday's cut off, and that the entire week was one long raid(even this morning) sure are you that those numbers aren't already irrelevant?

Thanks as always for your hard work. We appreciate it.

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