Quick Update

445
Thu, May 3, 2012 - 10:28am

Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.

I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.

The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.

Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.

Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.

The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.

This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.

The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.

With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed.

A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.

A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?

Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.

Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.

Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:

"In silver, the price action has been so poor that every day the phrase “the beatings will continue until morale improves” plays in my mind. Taken with everything discussed above, I’m left with the impression that the commercials are deliberately making silver look so bad in order to extract every last drop of blood from the speculative selling stone. At least the beatings are keeping the price below the moving averages, so this week’s reports should indicate a further reduction in the total net commercial short position in silver. Given the motive behind the poor silver price action, my guess is that JPM has reduced its concentrated short position by a bunch.
I’m sensing that JPMorgan is now down to 14,000 contracts net short in COMEX silver futures. That’s down from the 16,000 contracts at the last COT cut-off and down a whopping 5,000 contracts from the 19,000 contracts JPM was short in the last Bank Participation Report, as of April 3. There has been a noticeable determination on JPMorgan’s part to get its silver short position down. Clearly, if there is intent behind the rotten price action, it is for JPMorgan to buy back as many of its silver shorts as possible. I’d rather the whole thing blow up in their crooked faces, but the next best thing is for them to cover as they have done."
God bless Uncle Ted.
I still can't post charts. Everybody else can but not me. Seriously. But The Tech Team is working on it so I hope to be able to post them again later today.
I know you're sick of hearing me say this but the key word is "PATIENCE". Silver isn't going to $20. It's not going to $25, either. The domination and manipulation of silver by The Evil Empire is ending, whether they want to admit it or not.
That said, only experienced traders with money to lose should be playing in the actual casino. The manipulation can surely outlast your trading account and, absent a clear trend higher, traders will be whipsawed to death. Join the central banks, large institutions and wealthy individuals worldwide. Buy physical metal and take delivery. Hold it in your own vault or safe. To paraphrase WOPR: "A strange game. The only winning move is to take delivery."
Keep the faith. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  445 Comments

Groaner
May 3, 2012 - 11:05am
Lumpy
May 3, 2012 - 11:05am
silverstax
May 3, 2012 - 11:06am

Yes, a new low

TITS broke 70 this morning. A new, alltime low of 69.46

BUDDHA PRINCESS
May 3, 2012 - 11:08am

(Courtesy Ed Steer/ Ted Butler)

Silver analyst Ted Butler posted his mid-week commentary for his paying subscribers...and here are three free paragraphs that are must reads.

"The price of silver began to climb in earnest in the late summer of 2010 from about the $18 level to roughly the $31 level by the end of the year as physical silver began to grow tighter. My basis for the physical tightness explanation is that there was no net speculative buying in futures contracts on the COMEX for that period. In fact, the net speculative long/commercial short position declined by almost 25% from the mid-September through year end 2010. Almost 99 times out of 100, it is COMEX positioning that drives the price of silver. So if it wasn’t speculative buying on the COMEX that was driving the price, by process of elimination, it had to be something else. That something else was demand for physical, as evidenced in the collective 100 million oz growth in various silver ETFs (like SLV, PSLV, SIVR, etc) over that time period."

"After correcting to $27 in late January 2011, the price of silver surged to $49 in three months to the end of April. Once again, after some gyrations in the COT structure, the total net commercial short position was lower by the end of April, proving that it wasn’t buying by speculators on the COMEX that drove prices to historic highs; it was continued physical buying in ETFs and elsewhere and commercial short covering into the highs. The changes in the COT structure prove that the COMEX commercials on the short side were in a bind and were clearly panicking into the end of April. It was not a speculative bubble in any true sense of the word. I do admit that a good chunk of the buying in the silver ETFs was obviously momentum buying on rising prices and that was the metal that was subsequently liquidated on the May 2011 price smash. But it would be a stretch to call that a bubble. In retrospect, it was a shortage of silver, more than anything el se that drove prices to the highs."

"Had the big COMEX commercials not collusively banded together [starting on the evening of May 1st...and continuing to this day] to manipulatively rig prices lower, we would be looking down at $50 silver, instead of looking up to that price now. There’s no real way of telling how high we may have gone had the physical silver shortage into April 2011 jumped the fire break and spread to the world’s industrial users. Such a development would have created a situation where the fire would need to burn itself out by prices moving irrationally higher. I don’t know if the commercials knew on May 1st that they would be able to trip off the metal liquidation in SLV and the subsequent liquidation in COMEX contracts, but I am inclined to think that their backs were up against the wall...and it could have gone the other way. Let’s face it – if the commercials were in such total control, they never would have let silver have g otten to such extremes with them so close to being overrun to the upside. The commercials miscalculated from $18 on up...and only got lucky on their desperate last-gasp sell-off a year ago."

PMDigest
May 3, 2012 - 11:09am

Courage is What it Takes

I agree with your premise today on Quick Update- May 3rd. The answer to making money in the precious metals market is to have the courage to buy when others are pulling back in fear. Nothing has changed long term. The US government is still in denial and they will continue to print money to paper it all over.

Exbroker
May 3, 2012 - 11:09am

My sources R telling me to stack ammo.

Ak type. Do not buy brass rounds for an AK. They are meant to run on steel cases. You fire those brass rounds and you are going to fuck up your weapon, or possibly yourself. Buy the Russian rounds. Much cheaper. AK's easily penetrate Kevlar and make very large and damaging holes. It's not like what the media shows you. Also, get as many mags as you can filled and ready for action. Not 6 or 7 ...30 mags. You are going to need it.

Groaner
May 3, 2012 - 11:11am

Maybe if someone would write their congressman about

this very suspicious trading in the comex they would do something immediately about it.

hahaha what a joke democracy is.

oh yeah, they are going for blood,, see ya,, $30 silver..


May 3, 2012 - 11:11am
Tube Platinum_Investor
May 3, 2012 - 11:13am

Tulving

Tulving has been doing this a long time. In fact his father did it too. Tulving is known for not liking small talk and being rude if you try his patience. He likes you to call knowing what you want, order it and go. I am not defending his actions, just saying how it is. However, asking for a better price when spot goes down a little bit isn't, hmmm, polite?. You wouldn't let him (or any dealer) ask for a higher price if spot went up would you? If you call him during regular business hours you don't have to deal with Tulving himself. His employees are more friendly. Don't take it personally, he does have the best prices and you should use that to your advantage.

Groaner TF
May 3, 2012 - 11:14am

So how will that impact the metals?

Higher margins for everyone?

silverstax TF
May 3, 2012 - 11:16am

I knew it...

The TITS indicator doesn't lie ;-) Thanks for bringing it to us Turd!!

On a serious note, am I the only one who is ecstatic about everything that's going on??

Let's look at the facts:

1) BM (Blythe Masters or Bowel Movement, your pick) appears on TV effectively telling people to "Move along, nothing to see here"

2) Since her appearance there has been one propaganda piece after another bashing metals

3) Non-stop raids and the now infamous 7.5b "fat finger" which are having less and less of an effect.

What does all this mean? It can only mean one thing - that the cracks are starting to appear fast and furiously! I was convinced that they would keep this charade going for possibly years to come, but after these latest developments and I'm really starting to think they won't be able to keep the wheels on past the summer.

So chin up everyone - this is all gonna blow up in their faces soon enough!

Keep stacking!!

Exbroker
May 3, 2012 - 11:16am

Impact: Pissing us off

It's a gesture for all of the peons who have been crying foul. Nobody does anything in Chicago without Timmy's permission, or any of the other butt buddies he has. It's a fucking joke. You know what this is eventually come too.

Groaner
May 3, 2012 - 11:16am

Not everyone

member firms with non-hedged positions.

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- CME Group Inc., the world's largest futures exchange, is raising futures margins for non-hedged accounts from May 7 to comply with new regulations.

Members will be treated as speculators for outright positions, paying a higher margin, said the exchange, which trades everything from energy, agriculture and metals to interest rates and equity indexes. Members are currently treated as hedgers rather than speculators even if they are entering into a speculative position.



Read more: https://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/03/bloomberg_articlesM3ES2T1A74E901-M3FZH.DTL#ixzz1touMOaIg

PMDigest
May 3, 2012 - 11:18am

Welcome to the site

And this is correct.

Just line last week, anyone buying at 1635 and $30 will be retarded​ rewarded.

Groaner TF
May 3, 2012 - 11:18am

So it will cost the crooks more money to short?

Meaning they will cover rather then pony up?

Could have a big squeeze May 7 and just before!

Groaner
May 3, 2012 - 11:24am

Yes, perhaps

Which is exactly why it is so difficult to measure whether this is net positive or negative.

Could also go a long way toward explaining today's and this week's action.

Big Buffalo
May 3, 2012 - 11:24am

What did the Gold say to the dollar?

Braveheart - You're Fucked
balz TF
May 3, 2012 - 11:25am

Where can I see TITS

I'd like to see TITS everyday.. Do you post the index somewhere ?


May 3, 2012 - 11:26am

Now back over 1635

I believe that that will do it for today. We'll see...

balz
May 3, 2012 - 11:26am

2 months

From May 1 beatdown to second bottom : 2 months

From mid-August beatdown to second bottom : 2 months

From the end of October beatdown to the bottom : 2 months

From February 29 beatdown to the bottom :

The bottom is now.

Big Buffalo balz
May 3, 2012 - 11:28am
Exbroker
May 3, 2012 - 11:29am

Just think how bad this will get as election day comes.

The Zombie walking dead will be pissed. Amazing! They let the dead vote? In Chicago they do.Timmy blows his life saving breath back into them via their assholes. You think God would have thought about that? What does he know anyway?

Groaner
May 3, 2012 - 11:30am

May 7 is monday..

I do believe what the Turd pointed out.. There will be a rally tomorrow for sure.. They will cover before Monday to get a good fill before the longs go nuts.

Bobbejaan Exbroker
May 3, 2012 - 11:32am

RE:- Why and how did Gold become money?

Quote:
Because God said it was money. That's all I need to know.

I am curious, which god would that be? ... The Aztec's god, the Inca's god, the Christian's god, the Greek gods, the Norse gods, et al ?

There are so many different & conflicting gods to choose from :-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deities

Exbroker TF
May 3, 2012 - 11:33am

Now back over 1635

Turd, I luv you man. Have you ever considered turning off the radio and not giving the enemy your position? What the fuck would they do?


May 3, 2012 - 11:34am

I don't see why

with silver hovering just over 30$ they would not try to gun all the stops there, plus suck in a new round of retail shorts the second we see a 29 handle... THEN rip the retail shorts a new one. I don't disagree with Turd's overall thesis at all, I just cannot believe they will let this chance pass and allow 30 to hold right now. It would be an inexpensive move with a good payoff for the cartel. We'll see!


May 3, 2012 - 11:34am

tits = boobs?

Video unavailable
BUDDHA PRINCESS
May 3, 2012 - 11:37am

Jobless Rate Reaches New High in Euro Zone

FRANKFURT

Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a new high in March, according to figures released on Wednesday. The data came a few days before crucial elections in France and Greece, and it is likely to prompt more intense calls for an easing of Europe’s austerity drive.

Unemployment in the 17 countries that belong to the euro zone rose to 10.9 percent in March from 10.8 percent in February, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency. In March 2011, the rate was 9.9 percent, a number that illustrates the deterioration of the region’s economy in the last year.

The monthly increase, the 11th in a row, translates into more than 17 million jobless people, and it is in line with other recent indicators showing that the euro zone economy remains distressed. Manufacturing in the region hit a 34-month low in April, according to a survey of purchasing managers released Wednesday by the research firm Markit.

Posted in The NYTimes and the link is here.

Monedas Platinum_Investor
May 3, 2012 - 11:39am

"Words Mean Things !"....Rush Limbaugh

Platinum-Investor....you said OK ! They have sellers on the line, too ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Gentleman's Apology Due To Tulving ! Devilish Devil Icon !

BUDDHA PRINCESS
May 3, 2012 - 11:40am

Marc Faber

Inept Central Bankers Will Keep Long-Term Gold Prices High

Swiss-born and educated Marc Faber's distinct voice is a common sound on CNBCand Bloomberg TV when it comes to big-picture forecasting in investments. The contrarian views of his "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" often garner headlines, but Faber does go along with the crowd when it comes to pointing out the dangers of rising government debt and unabated monetary intervention. HAI Managing Editor Dre Voros caught up with Faber at his Hong Kong residence and spoke to him about gold, the Treasury market, which countries should be out of the eurozone and what an ideal portfolio allocation looks like.

People say the price of gold is in a bubble stage and it is up substantially from the lows in 1999, which was, at the time, around $252 per ounce. But at the same time, we had an explosion of debt, not just government debt, but private sector debt, and an explosion of unfunded liabilities such as in the pension fund industry, and not just with Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid.

So now, 12 years after the gold’s low, we are essentially in a situation where maybe the price of gold should be much higher because the economic and financial conditions are worse than they were 12 years ago. I go to lots of conferences and I usually ask the audience, “How many of you own gold?” Normally, hardly anyone owns it. I’ve been to conferences with thousands of people attending, and nobody owned any physical gold.

Posted at hardassetsinvestor.com website

The link ishere.

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