Quick Update

445
Thu, May 3, 2012 - 10:28am

Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.

I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.

The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.

Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.

Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.

The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.

This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.

The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.

With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed.

A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.

A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?

Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.

Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.

Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:

"In silver, the price action has been so poor that every day the phrase “the beatings will continue until morale improves” plays in my mind. Taken with everything discussed above, I’m left with the impression that the commercials are deliberately making silver look so bad in order to extract every last drop of blood from the speculative selling stone. At least the beatings are keeping the price below the moving averages, so this week’s reports should indicate a further reduction in the total net commercial short position in silver. Given the motive behind the poor silver price action, my guess is that JPM has reduced its concentrated short position by a bunch.
I’m sensing that JPMorgan is now down to 14,000 contracts net short in COMEX silver futures. That’s down from the 16,000 contracts at the last COT cut-off and down a whopping 5,000 contracts from the 19,000 contracts JPM was short in the last Bank Participation Report, as of April 3. There has been a noticeable determination on JPMorgan’s part to get its silver short position down. Clearly, if there is intent behind the rotten price action, it is for JPMorgan to buy back as many of its silver shorts as possible. I’d rather the whole thing blow up in their crooked faces, but the next best thing is for them to cover as they have done."
God bless Uncle Ted.
I still can't post charts. Everybody else can but not me. Seriously. But The Tech Team is working on it so I hope to be able to post them again later today.
I know you're sick of hearing me say this but the key word is "PATIENCE". Silver isn't going to $20. It's not going to $25, either. The domination and manipulation of silver by The Evil Empire is ending, whether they want to admit it or not.
That said, only experienced traders with money to lose should be playing in the actual casino. The manipulation can surely outlast your trading account and, absent a clear trend higher, traders will be whipsawed to death. Join the central banks, large institutions and wealthy individuals worldwide. Buy physical metal and take delivery. Hold it in your own vault or safe. To paraphrase WOPR: "A strange game. The only winning move is to take delivery."
Keep the faith. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  445 Comments

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R man J
May 4, 2012 - 8:55pm

sweet post historiography

In honor of Santa, I will take delivery of a couple of 1/4 eagles. After all I worked hard this week. I want to have more than just fiat to show for it. While I am at it I just want to show some love: Santa, Jesse, Ron Paul,Jim Willie, Eric King and of course thelovely Turd... God bless you all.

Lanikai
May 4, 2012 - 10:54am

slow and steady wins the race

The trendline can take Au down 'til we cry. No worries. Sinclair stated years ago how the deal was made, with China included, to take the dollar down slowly as to avoid social chaos... This chart is from https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com post April 24, the second chart shows a fifth wave blastoff, but don't count on it, just stack, hope for the best and plan for the worst: a mantra from Jim Sinclair we first read in '05. For those who need periodic reminders, just look at the five year chart now and again.
Tube
May 4, 2012 - 10:42am

Real Last

Real last, again. Ha!

May 4, 2012 - 10:38am

new thread - LAST!

yeah, me again.

Be Prepared
May 4, 2012 - 10:32am

@Pining - Turd is in his X wing Fighter

.... ready to shoot the Death Star in the ass...

Pining... do your stuff... I think Turd needs a new vehicle...

Be Prepared
May 4, 2012 - 10:27am

Today is Star Wars Day! We have something to Celebrate!

Yes... kinda geeky... but May the Force be with You! Oh and FU Blythe for the Smackdown today!

May 4, 2012 - 10:25am

Pining

I like him even more.

May 4, 2012 - 10:22am

Big Buff- I think Turd is waiting for his keyboard to cool off

after burning it up with "All you lilly-livered, pea brained, stump toothed mouth breathing, yellow bellied, cowardly "sky is falling" haters can kiss my grits. How you like me now bitchez? Yeeeeahhhhh!!!"

He may have to make another trip to Sams club to get a new one, and you know what happends when he does that... oh noes!

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Be Prepared
May 4, 2012 - 10:21am
Be Prepared
May 4, 2012 - 10:19am

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5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
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Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

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