Quick Update

Thu, May 3, 2012 - 10:28am

Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.

I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.

The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.

Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.

Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.

The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.

This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.

The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.

With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed.

A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.

A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?

Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.

Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.

Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:

"In silver, the price action has been so poor that every day the phrase “the beatings will continue until morale improves” plays in my mind. Taken with everything discussed above, I’m left with the impression that the commercials are deliberately making silver look so bad in order to extract every last drop of blood from the speculative selling stone. At least the beatings are keeping the price below the moving averages, so this week’s reports should indicate a further reduction in the total net commercial short position in silver. Given the motive behind the poor silver price action, my guess is that JPM has reduced its concentrated short position by a bunch.
I’m sensing that JPMorgan is now down to 14,000 contracts net short in COMEX silver futures. That’s down from the 16,000 contracts at the last COT cut-off and down a whopping 5,000 contracts from the 19,000 contracts JPM was short in the last Bank Participation Report, as of April 3. There has been a noticeable determination on JPMorgan’s part to get its silver short position down. Clearly, if there is intent behind the rotten price action, it is for JPMorgan to buy back as many of its silver shorts as possible. I’d rather the whole thing blow up in their crooked faces, but the next best thing is for them to cover as they have done."
God bless Uncle Ted.
I still can't post charts. Everybody else can but not me. Seriously. But The Tech Team is working on it so I hope to be able to post them again later today.
I know you're sick of hearing me say this but the key word is "PATIENCE". Silver isn't going to $20. It's not going to $25, either. The domination and manipulation of silver by The Evil Empire is ending, whether they want to admit it or not.
That said, only experienced traders with money to lose should be playing in the actual casino. The manipulation can surely outlast your trading account and, absent a clear trend higher, traders will be whipsawed to death. Join the central banks, large institutions and wealthy individuals worldwide. Buy physical metal and take delivery. Hold it in your own vault or safe. To paraphrase WOPR: "A strange game. The only winning move is to take delivery."
Keep the faith. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 3, 2012 - 10:32am


Couldn't help myself.

Let the hating begin.


May 3, 2012 - 10:32am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

May 3, 2012 - 10:34am

sequond? drat, thurd

closest I ever bin

May 3, 2012 - 10:34am

No time for hate

But time enough to say...

Stack. Period. EOL.

May 3, 2012 - 10:38am

WOW Precious Metals dealers ANGRY! Tulving.com

I just called to place an order for $1000 bag of half dollars. The price was $30.32 ask I said ok. While I was talking to him the price dropped to $30.27 so I asked him can I get the new price. He got so angry that I asked that he refused to take my order at all and hung up on me.

He told me to call back at 8:30 am west coast time when their will be other people to take the order.

So he bought himself another 1 hour to see if the prices bounce back up.

This tells me either this guy is a serious arrogant prick. Or he will use any excuse not to sell silver at these low manipulated, depressed prices.

Platinum_Investor Platinum_Investor
May 3, 2012 - 10:39am

I even called him back and

I even called him back and said Sir, I still want the price quoted, I just asked a question as a customer.

He said "I DO NOT WANT TO TAKE THE ORDER" then said call back in one hour.

May 3, 2012 - 10:41am

Watch this

Another great presentation from turdite Brent at Santiago Capital. Just click the link and enter your first name. It's about 6 minutes in length.


May 3, 2012 - 10:41am

Silver near 30

Still holding out for 26 on Silver. On a long term chart, it can go to 25ish and still be attractive. Under 25 and ... well I don't think we want to go there.

May 3, 2012 - 10:42am



my mothers keeper
May 3, 2012 - 10:43am

tf...one of the things i

tf...one of the things i really appreciate about you is the insight you provide into the mind of a trader! you have no idea how many years i've sat at this computer and wondered what is going on in the markets and how do i read these charts. you provide a wonderful education! thank you so much...

May 3, 2012 - 10:46am

Why and how did Gold become money?

Because God said it was money. That's all I need to know. And, he made it money for a reason. Because there was a limited supply, and it was difficult to duplicate it. That is unless you are Chinese.

May 3, 2012 - 10:48am

Hugo Salinas Price

“Eric, the problems we are seeing in the West are not going to be resolved in any positive way. What we have had in the West, in recent decades, has been the welfare state. The welfare state is, in my view, what I would call, ‘socialism light.’ We’ve had ‘socialism light’ and now we’re going to transition to full-blown socialism.”

​This could not be paid for out of taxes: It had to be financed. This is what has caused the explosion of debt in the West. The people who are in power, the elite, do not want to relinquish their power. They plan to retain it under full-blown socialism for the populations of the West.

This includes all countries that have central banks: They are going to have to follow suit. This is a very disturbing fact that is facing humanity. It means the inevitable decline of industrial civilization, and the inevitable impoverishment of the world’s population.

This means that over time there will be a decline in the number of people on this earth. That is the rather grim outlook that I see. So, it’s socialism ahead. And with that will come more government control and a centrally run economy. This is inefficient and unproductive, and it will lead to impoverishment."


My respect for that has grown immensely!

May 3, 2012 - 10:48am

Here we go again

Here we go again with the proverbial carrot. Just make another step and carrot is yours... and now just another one ... and another ... watch Comex is going to default ... and another one ... memory span of a goldfish, I feel I never ran away from the MSM

May 3, 2012 - 10:49am

First they came for the "Firsts"

and I said nothing because I had never been "First!"

Then they came for Jim "Rhino Horn" Sinclair, Eric "talks his book" Sprott, "Crazy" Uncle Ted, and Andrew "Whistleblower" McGuire I said nothing because I don't read them much.

Then they came for those who cry "Manipulation" and I said nothing because I can't strictly prove manipulation

Then they came for the "physical shortage" crowd, and I said nothing because I already have my stack

Then they came for the "Silver is Money" folks, and I said nothing because I didn't want to offend anyone.

Then there was little point in coming at all.

May 3, 2012 - 10:50am

If you're stacking

Provident has some decent prices on Libertads and 5oz ATB's.

May 3, 2012 - 10:50am



Big Buffalo
May 3, 2012 - 10:51am


Man, if we can just get a little pop up in gold, I could sell my dgp and buy some UCO. UCO looks pretty good under $42-$41.50.

May 3, 2012 - 10:52am

May 3, 2012 - 10:52am
May 3, 2012 - 10:53am

It looks like they are going for the juggler today

ouch... It would be nice to see the shorts get burned for a change if this is a setup

Urban Roman Exbroker
May 3, 2012 - 10:55am

Unless you are Chinese ...

If you are Chinese, you just substitute melamine, wrap it in yellow foil, and sell that at WalMart.

Then take the money and buy Au on the market.

May 3, 2012 - 10:57am

All should note the apparent

All should note the apparent reluctance/inability to drop gold through 1635.

May 3, 2012 - 10:58am

Sounds good to me

Thanks TF.

I can't wait for the day we witness the silver market snap!

Groaner TF
May 3, 2012 - 10:59am

No!!!! You had to say it..

now they will gun for it..

Kidding, just hope it holds.

May 3, 2012 - 10:59am

US Dollar Recovery Threatens Trend-Defining Resistance Barrier

S&P 500 – Prices continue to consolidate between 1399.10 and 1409.00, the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci retracement levels. A break higher exposes the late March to early April swing top in the 1419.90-1424.90 area. Alternatively, a push through near-term support targets the 50% Fib at 1391.20.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL – Prices put in a Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from late February, hinting a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up in the 104.90-105.15 area, marked by a horizontal barrier and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below here exposes rising trend line support at 102.42. Resistance is now at 106.03 and bolstered by the 61.8% Fib at 106.27.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD – Prices followed a Spinning Top candle below trend line resistance capping gains since late March with a push lower. Sellers face initial support at 1637.95, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break lower exposing the 38.2% level at 1611.77. Trend line resistance is now at 1664.48.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices followed a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern identified yesterday above trend line support set from late July 2011 with a push higher. The bulls are now testing resistance in the 9879-9906 area, a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from the April 5 swing high, with a daily close above it neutralizing downward pressure and opening the door for a larger advance. Near-term support is now at 9820.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

May 3, 2012 - 11:01am

Euro,Stocks-Linked Currencies Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to ECB

All eyes are on the European Central Bank interest rate decision after yesterday’s dismal economic data set showed the manufacturing and services sectors contacted at the fastest pace since June 2009 while the region-wide unemployment rate rose a record-high 10.9 percent. While an outright interest rate cut is not likely this time around with inflation holding at 2.6 percent in April, markets will look to the press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi to offer guidance on steps the central bank is prepared to take to alleviate what appears to be a deepening recession.

Hints of forthcoming easing – whether by outright rate cuts or LTRO-style efforts – are likely to weigh on theEuro. If Draghi opts to invoke the central bank’s singular mandate to assure price stability as a reason for inaction however, worries about the impact of an accelerating downturn in the Eurozone on global output at large may weigh on risk appetite and undermine sentiment-linked currencies while boosting the safe-haven ones. This may drag down the single currency against the likes of the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

Elsewhere, UK Services PMI figures are expected to show that the non-manufacturing sector slowed in April, which may put downward pressure on front-end UK yields and weigh on the British Pound. A pair of bond auctions from France and Spain round out big-ticket event risk, with traders keeping a watchful eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings for signs of returning funding stress, although investors are unlikely to show directional conviction on the results until after the ECB announcement crosses the wires.

US Jobless Claims and the ISM Non-manufacturing Composite gauge enter the spotlight later in the session. The likelihood of a Fed QE3 program remains a driving theme for the greenback, meaning soft outcomesare likely to be taken as fodder for stimulus hopes and could weigh on prices. The balance between such headwinds and any boost from risk aversion or particularly dovish ECB rhetoric may yet work in the Dollar’s favor however, particularly considering traders’ reticence to commit to a firm QE3 view ahead of Friday’s closely-watched US Employment report.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed overnight, sliding as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts, following a disappointing set of first-quarter Employment figures. Although hiring rose by 0.5 percent – an outcome that narrowly topped economists’ forecasts – the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to 6.7 percent, marking the highest reading since the fourth quarter of 2010. Importantly, the participation rate also jumped to 68.8 percent, so selling pressure seems unlikely to prove lasting considering the jump in the jobless rate didn’t seem to reflect labor market stress. The Australian Dollar sold off after the China Non-manufacturing PMI index fell in April, pointing to slowdown in Australia’s top export market.

Asia Session: What Happened









Unemployment Rate (1Q)






Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)






Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)






Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)






Lloyds Business Barometer (APR)






AiG Performance of Service Index (APR)






China Non-manufacturing PMI (APR)




Euro Session: What to Expect









UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (1Q)






Nationwide House Prices sa (MoM) (APR)






Nationwide House Prices nsa (YoY) (APR)






PMI Services (APR)






Official Reserves ($) (Changes) (APR)






Spain to Sell 2015-2017 Bonds






Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) (MAR)






Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) (MAR)






France to Sell 2017-2025 Bonds






European Central Bank Rate Decision




Critical Levels










--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

May 3, 2012 - 11:02am

good post

good logic

May 3, 2012 - 11:04am


Alas, she appears to have completely inverted from last time I checked and is now sagging but the good news is that the TITS can only start to point up from here....

May 3, 2012 - 11:04am


Silver, liquid and illiquid, the 'modified open mint' and gold & silver as parallel monetary systems
by Hugo Salinas Price

I. Brief history of silver coinage in the US, 1792 to the present
II. Theoretical monetization of a $50 dollar silver coin
III. The “Open Mint” as it functioned before 1873
IV. A “Modified Open Mint” for silver, today
V. A visualization of the end of fiat money
VI. The Market will signal how much silver money is to be minted
VII. Considerations regarding gold



We can think of no other way to recover the use of silver as money. In our opinion silver has been, historically, the vitally important complement to gold, because for thousands of years it has been the main monetary instrument for the masses of humanity. Its recovery as money is vital to the continued existence of our civilization.


Considered as two different currencies circulating in parallel one with the other, it becomes clear that their monetary values could fluctuate around some fairly stable ratio. This fluctuation of the future ratio between gold and silver would be entirely healthy and could easily be accounted for in commerce – today the world has about 170 different fiat currencies, they are all fluctuating with one another at every second of the day, and yet international commerce goes on nonetheless.


May 3, 2012 - 11:05am

Here we go again

Abraxas, that's just what I thought when I read your post. But I won't have to read one again.


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