Funeral For A Friend

246
Tue, May 1, 2012 - 10:26am

It is with great sadness that I announce the passing of a legend. Today, after a long battle with splinters, my sidekick, the ruler, gave up the ghost. I've been through countless Sharpies and reams of paper but my trusty ruler has always been by my side. Ruler is survived by his longtime companions Compass and Protractor. He will be sorely missed.

Elton John - Funeral For A Friend (Love Lies Bleeding)

Before we start today, a quick recap of yesterday. There was a lot of noise and hubbub last night about this article in the WSJ: https://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/30/gold-shakes-off-1-24-billion-fat-finger/ Note that this was posted at 4:00 pm EDT. Astute Turdites had this same information about 6 hours earlier:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 30, 2012 - 9:00am.
MODERATOR

I just spoke to Andrew (Maguire). He informed me that it was 7500 contracts, dumped all at once, by "our usual suspect". The goal, he thought, was to knock back price to keep it below 1670 today and away from turning the month of April green on the chart. The amazing thing is that there are substantial orders for physical to be filled/tripped if price reaches 1645. The low in the June12 was 1645.10. Pretty sweet, huh? Move along now. Nothing to see here. At any rate, JPM is now trying to claim that it was a simple, "fat finger" error, which is complete BS. Let's get the PM fix behind us and then see if we can complete the FUBM.

Again, if you're coming by this site and only reading my posts, you're missing out. You've got to read the comments, too. You also need to be stopping by Pailin's Trading Corner, EricO's Miner Thread, BagOGolds Miner Emporium and all of the great forums, too many to mention all of them here.

Additionally, the information that I was able to pass along yesterday is exactly the type of stuff that Andy provides to all of his subscribers and the regulars of "Turd's Army" on a daily basis. Speaking of which, there's still time to join! Andy was able to generate a profit (well above fees) through the very challenging month of April and I know from speaking to him yesterday that he is very excited for the prospects here in May. If you are an experienced trader, you should seriously consider conscripting yourself into the fight. Here's the link which you can follow to submit your interest. Join today and I'm confident that you'll be adding to your physical stack in June....and July...and August...

https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

Yesterday's beatdown did nothing to dampen the spirits nor lessen the demand of gold buyers. As Andy said, there is great interest in acquiring physical metal at 1645 and below. Now those orders are being moved UP as the buyers scale into their positions. This will continue to provide a floor for the paper market. Additionally, the chart looks quite compelling here. Not only did the long-term trendline hold as support again, the shorter term charts now clearly show solid support and a base near 1625. With the long-term line in that area, too, I think it is highly unlikely and doubtful that gold is going any lower. A month ago, I gave you 1635 as "Turd's Bottom #2". I was off by $20 and about 2 weeks early. Sorry about that. In the big picture, however, I'm right as rain on this one. Gold may continue to bang around here for a while longer but 1625-15635 is your floor now and much higher prices are coming very soon.

Silver is attempting to turn the corner here, as well. It is quite evident on these charts that the area around $31.40-31.50 is extremely important relative to short-term sentiment. And why is short-term sentiment so important? Because, to me, it's quite clear that a short squeeze in silver is possible as the specs have overplayed their hands and are now too short for their own good. A move UP and through 31.50 will begin to pressure these losers into covering and the pressure will increase with each uptick. Once this begins, silver will accelerate toward $32 and, above there, $33.

Two more things to keep an eye on today. First, The Pig is desperately clinging to support near 78.70 cash. As in the past, don't be surprised by the sudden appearance of some headlines and/or rumors, strategically released to give the worthless script a much-needed shove higher.

And crude is right on the edge of breaking resistance and moving higher. As you can plainly see, the $105 level has contained price for 4 days now. Again, don't be surprised by MOPE and/or SPIN that provides the impetus to spike the POSX while driving gold and crude lower.

OK, that's all for now. I'm off to CVS to buy Ruler II. With the volatility I expect this week heading into the BLSBS, I might want to get an extra sturdy, heavy duty model. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  246 Comments

koan
May 2, 2012 - 8:30am

Some time soon...

...silver is sooooooooooo going to explode (to the upside of course!).


May 2, 2012 - 8:42am

Morning all - love cartoons - the more the merrier!

re FDIC insurance - this is important indeed. It is the insuring of deposits, I have heard very eloquently argued, that destroyed money. Because once the deposits are insured (which depositors stupidly thought was to their advantage and still do) the banks began to lose their downside and the bank's shareholders, initially liable, were off the hook. And so the disincentive to make bad loans began to fade. And now we all assume it is a good thing! (Well, not us all)

from boatman's link:

To add just a bit more fuel to the fire, there is yet another expiration event at year end 2012 that is receiving little to no attention that we believe will have some impact on either the bond market or what supposedly seem the recovering fundamentals of the big banks. That event is the expiration of FDIC insurance for all bank deposit amounts above $250,000. Here's our bottom line. If the Government allows the excess FDIC insurance coverage to expire, they will implicitly be helping out Ben Bernanke and his merry band of followers at the Fed. If they extend the insurance coverage, they will implicitly be supporting the bottom line of the big banks. Which will it be? Given the more than close relationship between the Administration and the US financial sector, it should be quite the interesting choice, no? Just remember, in the endgame the Government will always and everywhere vote for self-preservation.

boatman
May 2, 2012 - 8:47am

if there's anyone

who understands gold n what is going on..............and who is not given to baseless optimism it is dan norcini.....shoulder to him, of course, is our esteemed leader here.


May 2, 2012 - 8:56am

boatman - I am all for the big tent

but some people I keep on I.U. (And when I cheat and take a look, I remember why I did it in the first place - talk about repetitive noise.)

grinners koan
May 2, 2012 - 9:03am

99th monkey

How do you stop a gang taking control if there is no police force? Or enforce laws? Or guarentee contracts?

Tort?

Nuclear Rocketman
May 2, 2012 - 9:04am

Coiled Spring

On 4/5/12, the London Trader said that there were gold bids of hundreds of tons at $1610 or less. A little less than a month later, Andrew Maguire says there are substantial orders for physical to be filled/tripped if price reaches 1645, so the base price appears to be rising. If TPTB want to keep the gold price less than 1670 to prevent a breakout, the spring definitely appears to be getting coiled tight.

Fr. Bill
May 2, 2012 - 9:09am
bbacq
May 2, 2012 - 9:18am

@monkey, @ clinky

monkey - "just ignore the trolls". Like shredded hemp, I am afraid not. Love to, but I am addicted to ferreting out truth, they lies, and conflict is inevitable. Let them be hoisted on their own petards, but someone must hoist.

@clinKY/Barter - exposed flesh? Links! What did I miss?

cheers all. If the trolls have gone I will fade away again...


May 2, 2012 - 9:19am

Fr. Bill - what more proof could you need

Gold is the money of kings, central bankers, and drug lords. So everybody who deals in large sums of money chooses one certain type of currency, and yet I am barred by law from doing same. There must be some message in here, if I could just figure it out.

Hmnn, can't become a king (although happy to oblige if anyone is looking), can't become a central banker - leaves me only one option ... and I am looking for an income, if not an actual job.

boatman
May 2, 2012 - 9:30am

clinky XTY

i missed the flesh also

i only have 1 on IU......the guy that hopes i get melted by the bomb the iranians are building.........most despicable thing i ever heard here.

Groaner
May 2, 2012 - 9:48am

same old garbage

big pop on the jobs and then it retraces quickly down , down down.

HFT computers gunning the stops, they could not resist.. dont need real people trading any more to keep the metals in check

tyberious
May 2, 2012 - 9:49am

dependent liberals

Red States Feed at Federal Trough, Blue States Supply the Feed

Monday, September 27, 2004

The Tax Foundation has released a fascinating report showing which states benefit from federal tax and spending policies, and which states foot the bill.

The report shows that of the 32 states (and the District of Columbia) that are "winners" -- receiving more in federal spending than they pay in federal taxes -- 76% are Red States that voted for George Bush in 2000. Indeed, 17 of the 20 (85%) states receiving the most federal spending per dollar of federal taxes paid are Red States. Here are the Top 10 states that feed at the federal trough (with Red States highlighted in bold):


States Receiving Most in Federal Spending Per Dollar of Federal Taxes Paid:

1. D.C. ($6.17)
2. North Dakota ($2.03)
3. New Mexico ($1.89)
4. Mississippi ($1.84)
5. Alaska ($1.82)
6. West Virginia ($1.74)
7. Montana ($1.64)
8. Alabama ($1.61)
9. South Dakota ($1.59)
10. Arkansas ($1.53)

In contrast, of the 16 states that are "losers" -- receiving less in federal spending than they pay in federal taxes -- 69% are Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000. Indeed, 11 of the 14 (79%) of the states receiving the least federal spending per dollar of federal taxes paid are Blue States. Here are the Top 10 states that supply feed for the federal trough (with Blue States highlighted in bold):

States Receiving Least in Federal Spending Per Dollar of Federal Taxes Paid:

1. New Jersey ($0.62)
2. Connecticut ($0.64)
3. New Hampshire ($0.68)
4. Nevada ($0.73)
5. Illinois ($0.77)
6. Minnesota ($0.77)
7. Colorado ($0.79)
8. Massachusetts ($0.79)
9. California ($0.81)
10. New York ($0.81)
https://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2004/09/red_states_feed.html
Magpie
May 2, 2012 - 9:49am

@grinners

How do you stop a gang taking control if there is no police force? Or enforce laws? Or guarentee contracts?

And what if the gang is the government? What if the government is the one breaking the laws? Guarantee contracts???? Remember when the government gave GM to the unions?

All the things you fear are being done to all of us by the very ones most people expect to protect us.

koan
May 2, 2012 - 9:52am

grinners

In case you hadn't noticed, a gang has already taken control. We're all living at the mercy of their next 'law'.

If all refused to be controlled, did not fear death over sacrificing liberty then it would only be masochists who would attempt control of such a species. Granted, quite the leap from how we live now but at the same time as easy as that. In the meantime - competing private organisations to enforce law, who knows?

Why would you renege on a contract if it was entered into voluntary to the benefit of both? But simply don't enter into a contract with someone you don't trust i.e. caveat emptor e.g. people hand over their money to pension managers etc that they've never met?!? - in fact most the western world is FORCED to handover their money to pension providers they've never met!

What I recognise is that my feeble mind doesn't have all the answers and that's why I'm damned if I want some other similarly inadequately equipped mind forcing their attempts on me.

tyberious
May 2, 2012 - 9:54am

Welfare

About $59 billion is spent on traditional social welfare programs. $92 billion is spent on corporate subsidies. So, the government spent 50% more on corporate welfare than it did on food stamps and housing assistance in 2006.
The Big Picture

So now let’s look at the big picture. The final totals are $59 billion, 3 percent of the total federal budget, for regular welfare and $92 billion, 5 percent of the total federal budget, for corporations. So, the government spends roughly 50% more on corporate welfare than it does on these particular public assistance programs.

Should we spend less on corporate welfare and/or social welfare programs? Or should we spend even more? It’s up to you. A bunch of people died horrible deaths to make sure this country remained a democracy, so if you feel strongly about this issue you owe it to them to call or write your congressman and senators and give them a piece of your mind.

https://thinkbynumbers.org/blog/government-spending/corporate-welfare/co...

Figures don't lie, but liars sure can figure!

grinners Magpie
May 2, 2012 - 9:54am

.

.

Groaner Magpie
May 2, 2012 - 9:55am

then do what Ralph Nader says.

If you dont like those who are running the government then fire them. Ralph says Bush and Obama should be IMPEACHED because they broke the laws against the constitution, which they swore to protect and follow.

Why not? The sheep have no voice

grinners koan
May 2, 2012 - 9:55am

I'm all for minimum taxes

But I acknowledge that without police, there is no law.


May 2, 2012 - 9:58am

boatman - re I am all for the big tent

Yes, him too, from way before the 'incident'. Not many others, but some things are just predictably depressing, and I have plenty of other ways to get angry and upset.

Dennis Miller had a great line about prejudice, which I am paraphrasing, but basically he said why should he hate someone for something shallow like their ethnicity or nationality when he could just get to know them and hate them for a much better reason.

But you have to get to know them first and stupid nationalistic bs is a waste of all our times. We need to bring forward a world of rationality, where ideas can flourish - and the discussion of how one might order the affairs of a nation is a great one to be having. I personally believe that without first establishing a sound money system, there is no hope of any proper social order, larger than a small clan.

Groaner
May 2, 2012 - 9:59am
boatman
May 2, 2012 - 10:09am

xty

well you are more optimistic than me, but thats age and gender probly.

humans rr very flawed characters, but thats my take.

possible mothers have to be optimists.

Monedas
May 2, 2012 - 10:10am

Fascism Is Right Wing Socialism....!

The Fascists were the eminent threat....once defeated....we turned our attention back to the Left Wing Socialists ! Communism had a 25 year head start....but Hitler was "Socializing" Germany as fast as his little Bavarian legs would let him ! It's all the same shit ! The only thing new in Europe was the Anglo-American option ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Fascism Is Socialism With Lipstick !

ClinkinKY tyberious
May 2, 2012 - 10:12am

@ Tyberious--dependent liberals

It was a "play on words" man. See, when I describe myself as an "independent conservative" the obverse would be "dependent liberals". Lighten up.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've stated before, and I'll state it again. I am an "independent conservative". I don't trust either party. And if, by some chance, Mittens gets elected, my vitriol will be directed at him because he is neither independent nor conservative.

With that said, I'm now off to work the graveyard shift so that the "dependent liberals" can be fed, housed, etc, etc.

gatortrader
May 2, 2012 - 10:18am

CME shutting down paper raids?

Found this on yahoo. Any validity to this?

CME has begun shutting down fake paper raids. 22 minutes ago

I don't know if you guys caught this. But on that last 7500 contract paper raid, the CME itself shut the bankers down and halted trading. I knew when I saw that fat finger stuff in WSJ that there was more to the story. Someone got burned horribly trying to manipulate the market and was trying to getout of the trades.

The last few months at the CME have shown me that they are being investigated and forced to make changes. I suspect they were forced to borrow money from the Fed to pay out the MF global insurance because the 6 billion insurance fund they said they had didn't exist. Now there are people up their butt 24/7. The CEO got the boot. Margins on gold and silver are being lowered. Now they are actively stopping the banks from rigging the markets.

Other things of interest I am seeing is JPM appears to be being forced to lease out PMs from customers on every delivery date. And JPM is very chatty in the news defending and making excuses for their oversized shorts. I think they are getting the big @#$% probe as well. They talk too much now.

Stay long. No one is interested in lower gold prices, despite what you hear. Governments absolutely need gold to be high enough to back debt load. Only people who can't balance a checkbook don't understand gold's role in global finance.
Groaner gatortrader
May 2, 2012 - 10:23am

I wish I could believe all

I wish I could believe all that.. it would be nice to some honesty return to the markets.. just dont see it happening.

Groaner gatortrader
May 2, 2012 - 10:24am

give us the yahoo address on

give us the yahoo address on that

Eric Original
May 2, 2012 - 10:25am

Eric O's Favorite Lists

My miner lists are taking shape. Links to the latest updates will show up in my signature line. Since signature lines only show up in Forum posts, and not on Main St, here is a link at the SpeakEasy to show you the way. A trail of bread crumbs, as it were. Now, let's get out there and make some money!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/559120#comment-559120

Monedas
May 2, 2012 - 10:30am

Clinky !

Take 5 ! Have fun with the Libs....like I do ! My poise under fire, my confidence.....my smugness drives the Libs "Banana Republic" ! They have their "shit ins" and OWS demonstrations....we own the Cartoons ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Fatwa Word Cartoons


May 2, 2012 - 10:34am

Turkish gold lust

The Turkish gold lust only makes sense if we are close enough to a gold standard and revaluation to help solve Turkey's budget problems. They hear the music, hear it winding down and are trying to take a chair like Chavez/Venezuela already did before it stops--just like we stackers are doing for their personal finances.

I am torn between the scary stories here and at ZH for the future of the economy and the normalcy bias. Last year, my kids were on board with stacking. Today they say, "What crisis? Dad, you have gone overboard!" Now I have a job offer back near home and family and the kids want to stay here in the midwest to be near their HS friends, who are scattering to the 4 winds seeking jobs away from this depressed, drug-infested town.

I have not traded in about 6 months. Yesterday I opened my trading platform and played around paper-trading stock options on Google--no skin in the game. I did quite well actually. Normalcy bias is tempting me to get back into the shark pond. But paper-trading is easy...

School is out. Summer is here. So I don't have to feel guilty reading all the posts.

Gatortrader: your post is very interesting...and encouraging.

paulindoon
May 2, 2012 - 10:35am

Hey guys/gals: New Thread

Hey guys/gals: New Thread

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