Monday Night Discussion

Mon, Apr 23, 2012 - 6:33pm

Hot on the heals of the Sunday Night Discussion, here comes the Monday version. If you have a few minutes, I'd really appreciate your feedback on the following items.

First, a quick update on the open interest changes for Friday. Recall, first, that it was a relatively flat day with gold up $1.50 and silver down 13 cents. The gold OI was quite curious in that the front-month June dropped by a scant 24 contracts and the next delivery month of August dropped by only 1. One! Now, with total volume for Friday coming in at 137,937, do you find it more than a little strange that the two most active months only saw a drop of 25 contracts, combined? Just another sign that almost all of the Comex volume these days is HFT WOPRs that open and close positions intraday. (It could also be another sign that the CME-supplied data is simply bogus.) In silver, the total OI rose to a new 2012 high of 121,702 with most of the gains coming in the OI of the Sep12 contract. I will be very interested to see the OI numbers tomorrow (basis today) after today's EE beatdown. I would suspect that the total OI will show another rise to new 2012 highs as brand new shorts were added today.

Next, an interesting note for Mike Krieger's new site. Lots of folks seem to incorrectly misinterpret the abundance of "WE BUY GOLD" stores as a sign of a gold bubble when, in fact, it's the opposite signal. Additionally, the willingness of regular people to unload their gold in exchange for much-needed fiat speaks volumes to the true state of the economy. Now comes this story about pawn shops seeing a dramatic dropoff in the amount of gold exchanges. Is this "supply" of gold from weak hands nearly exhausted? Maybe.

In world news, I thought this next piece neatly summarized the deteriorating situation in Europe where things are going from bad to worse to awful to crisis very quickly.’-weekly-market-forecast-here-comes-spain-edition

Lastly, please take five minutes and read this excellent new piece from Jim Quinn. As preparation for the FOMC nonsense this week and the BLSBS next, this article will strengthen your fortitude against the SPIN, MOPE and outright propaganda that is sure to come.

OK, off you go then. See you tomorrow. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


cliff 567
Apr 23, 2012 - 6:37pm



Apr 23, 2012 - 6:40pm
Apr 23, 2012 - 6:42pm

Who says?

Just because a lot of businesses are willing to buy gold cheap, who says a lot of people are dumb enough to sell to them? Sure some jewelry gets sold for cheap, because people are either desperate or unaware of the true value, but I bet very little, if any bullion.

Silver Meddler
Apr 23, 2012 - 6:43pm

Cryogenically Freezing Myself

Wake me up when it goes under $1600/$30 so I can stack.

Apr 23, 2012 - 6:51pm

Turd, I always opined that

Turd, I always opined that our Cash For Gold stores were a sterilized & legalized method of modern day confiscation. Just when folks should hold tight, they trade their "golden ticket" for toilet paper.


Edit: I don't chime in often enough but thanks for all you do amigo

Apr 23, 2012 - 6:51pm


At the end of the day an open market functions on supply and demand. This is the premise I have based my investments on and it is also the premise that will one day prove to be the silver bullet that takes down some of the biggest banks. You can seemingly suppress this equation with "false" supply- but in the end the demand will not be satisfied with paper but with the end product. The economic outlook will be managed very precisely moving into the Nov elections. There will be need for a market sell off in order to make room for the buying run in the Fall when "all is well" and "recession ended" will be the headlines from coast to coast. The wild card events will take place over-seas where certain situations cannot simply be manipulated. There will be smoke coming from china as well as the middle east. This will not be propaganda but reality seeping in. Deals will be made in Asia and the US will be slowly dealt out of the game. This basing at 1600 for gold will be left behind for a new gold reality around 2000- that is the next level of manipulation. We should be very glad to take part in this game at these prices , bc folks if you are worried about a few hundred dollar drop in gold over the next 2 months, then you are not mentally prepared for trading or investing in these markets. PM's are for long horizons- the farther they push the beach ball under the water the higher it will bounce- take advantage of submerged beach ball prices in the PM's - cost average folks. I hear the buyers at 40 in pain and I understand- but I distinctly remember the buyers at 16 howling from the pain. 50% haircuts were the norm and a nice 70% was staring us in the face a few years ago. Guys it is all perception and point of view. Silver will catch up to gold , but it will be all at once . The problem with that will be the folks "waiting" for the big dumper to get in so that they can truly have a "good entry". Poor entries turn into fabulous values when you have the right time horizon. The pt made on the earlier thread on food prep- folks it is a good idea no matter what the world looks like next week-month-year. Tornadoes- blizzards- hurricanes- any disruption in normal life is made so much easier when one is prepared. Just my 2 cents- dollar cost average folks- it has worked for 10 years and will for awhile longer.


Apr 23, 2012 - 6:54pm

Two assholes (or, I looked up narcissist in dictionary...

....and found the second picture).

Sorry, I just couldn't wait for morning:)

Apr 23, 2012 - 6:56pm

Right now it feels like we are a fish on a line..

Right now it feels like we are a fish on a line. The line plays out to about $32 or so (or did until today). The cartel let us tire ourselves out fighting against the limit of the line, and then when we are tired enough they reel it in a little bit more and let the process repeat.

What we are waiting for is the hook to bend or the line to break. When the line breaks, it'll go without warning and the price will go zooming off into the great blue yonder without even a look back. This is why it's tough to sell now in the hopes of buying back in later. If that line breaks it'll be hard to get back in near the point you got out.

Apr 23, 2012 - 7:05pm

Danke Shane?

Danke Shane: what does it mean?

It means' Thank you' in German.

Apr 23, 2012 - 7:08pm

thoughts on a gold bubble

Last month I began visiting LCSs to get into buying in person to avoid shipping costs and to develop relationships with dealers. I have now narrowed my interest to a guy who owns a small shop near the university district. I made that decision because all the other shops in my metropolitan area appear to be these semi-chain shops that are only interested in transacting and not allowing people to just stand around and hang out and make connections. Booo to that.

Anyway, two observations come out of this:

1) I read many reviews of various coin shops in my area and the ONLY reviews I read were either people who were so happy to have gotten X fiat for their coins or jewelry or angry at being lowballed. There were NO reviews from buying customers.

2) After hanging out in several places in person I noticed significantly more sellers than buyers. That basically supported my impressions from my prior research online.

If this is a bubble, it sure doesn't feel like one. I think bubbles can be detected by psychology, as I recall back in the housing bubble I would attend dinner parties with my parents (I was in HS at the time ofc) where parents would invariably boast about how much their home was worth. On the other hand I ask various people how much they think gold is worth nowadays and half of them have no idea, with the other half being somewhat aware of it being over 1000/oz.

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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