Mon, Apr 23, 2012 - 10:32am

The term applies in several contexts today. First, we are finally seeing resolution of the manufactured decline and bottom that began a year ago in silver and nearly eight months ago in gold. More importantly, however, the title applies to our own resolve as we summon the courage to stand with conviction as we face this final onslaught.

Trading and stacking has never been, and never will be, easy. You see, my friend, you and I are financial outliers. We see the truth behind the lies. We are aware of what is coming and we are trying to prepare. Because this notion flies in the face of the conventional and because the involuntary reaction of those whose normalcy bias is threatened is ridicule, you and I are often maligned as "conspiracy theorists" and "bugs". This is fine and we all laugh along when times are good and PM prices are rolling higher. On days like today, however, the tin-foil hat starts to get a little itchy.

So, what are you going to do? Do you have conviction? Are you resolute in your beliefs or are you simply a bandwagon-jumper, ready to run back to the "safety" of AAPL, Vanguard and a CD?

The world, as we've known it, has ended. A global financial tectonic shift has been underway now for over three years. There is no going back just as there is no stopping it. Now, you have a choice to make. You can continue on this path toward personal, financial protection or you can melt back into the herd. I, for one, will stand my ground. I know that I am right and I will not genuflect at the altar of the status quo.

Gold near $1600 is an extraordinarily attractive offer. After the Cartel Panic of last August, the paper price has been raided, suppressed and capped while physical demand caught up. We now stand at a point where gold has traced out a massive, 7-month reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. Additionally, at this price, we're told of significant sovereign and central bank demand for physical delivery. Where these two points meet represents the extraordinary opportunity to trade or stack. That point is right here, right now. Between 1595 and 1610, lies the final bottom to this brutal "correction". Gold will have retraced all the way back to where it was before the "debt ceiling debate" and subsequent S&P downgrade last July and August. Do you think this is coincidence? It's not. $1595-1610 is your floor.

Silver is also very near an historic bottom. Somewhere near $30 would represent a nice, symmetrical reverse head-and-shoulder bottom and it certainly looks like that's where we're headed. Take a close look at this first chart. After "Theft #1" last May, price double-bottomed near $33 and then rallied into "Theft #2" last September. Note that, again, price double-bottomed, this time near $26.

If this was the only chart we had, we would all have to be nervous about a pending "Theft #3". However, a quick look at the weekly chart and you'll see other details emerge. Note that there's not just a double-bottom at $26, it's a triple-bottom with the lows back in late January 2011 (Turd's Bottom). Note, also, the convergence of the primary, long-term trendline with these bottoms and the pending conclusion of the long-term, "wedge" pattern. So, let's sum up silver this way:

  • Could $30 silver be the final bottom of this year-long correction? Yes.
  • Could silver trade below $30? Yes.
  • Could silver continue sideways within the wedge for another 60-90 days? Yes.
  • Could silver briefly trade all the way down to $28. Yes.
  • Will silver trade down through $26. No.
  • Is this the time to give up? No.
  • Is it time to sell your stack? No.
  • In the end, will The Forces of Darkness prevail? No.

I leave you today with a few lines from the American patriot, Thomas Paine. At the bleakest hour of the American Revolution, Paine wrote the first missive of a series which he titled "The Crisis". America had begun its war of revolution in the warm days of summer six months earlier when 56 men mutually pledged their lives, their fortunes and their honor. After a six-month "correction", all was on the verge of being lost. The Continental Army was subject to de-enlistment and deserters. Morale was low. To some, defeat seemed inevitable. On a much smaller scale, we in Turdville stand at a similar point today. You are being tested. You must be strong. You must be resolute. You must have the courage of your conviction.

Stand with me. We will prevail. TF

These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value.

I thank God, that I fear not. I see no real cause for fear. I know our situation well, and can see the way out of it. This is our situation, and who will may know it. By perseverance and fortitude we have the prospect of a glorious issue; by cowardice and submission, the sad choice of a variety of evils — a ravaged country — a depopulated city — habitations without safety, and slavery without hope — our homes turned into barracks and bawdy-houses for Hessians, and a future race to provide for, whose fathers we shall doubt of. Look on this picture and weep over it! and if there yet remains one thoughtless wretch who believes it not, let him suffer it unlamented.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Loud Noises
Apr 23, 2012 - 10:52am

Standing firm is easy

Think about it, as a stacker, standing firm in the face of this conflict is so easy. All you have to do is nothing at all. Sit on your stack. When you remove all the emotions and the news overload, just do nothing. If you still have courage and the means, of course one could BTFD. But it is enough at this point for those with a stack to do nothing. Its comforting to have it so simple with all the BS in the world.

Apr 23, 2012 - 10:56am


You mean we shouldn't blindly accept everything we're told? Thanks for pointing that out. But the whole point is we pay this guy for his opinions (and he works cheap)

Dr G
Apr 23, 2012 - 10:57am

Turd, thanks. I love this

Turd, thanks. I love this post. This post has it all for me--some TA and some words of wisdom. It falls in line with what I am personally thinking (I've been waiting for silver to drop a bit lower and form a more perfect reverse H&S). What a wonderful day to prepare for the future. Stand with hope and optimism yet be prepared for the worst.

Apr 23, 2012 - 10:57am

Read Turd's ZH Link

"I do not believe, any longer, that the catastrophe can be avoided and I would begin to immediately plan for an event that will eclipse the American financial crisis of 2007 - 2009 because this one will be far worse."

- Mark Grant

Apr 23, 2012 - 11:07am

Great Post

Sticking with you Mt T, been around here a while now and find the smackdowns more amusing every time. Stacking Rulz, though I'd love to catch a decent paper increase, so please keep us updated as to when you believe it's time to get in.

Apr 23, 2012 - 11:08am


Excellent Quote!

Dr G
Apr 23, 2012 - 11:12am

He is having some problems

He is having some problems today, isn't he. Geez, who in Europe isn't?

Apr 23, 2012 - 11:14am

Total conviction

Thanks for the update.

I'm not wavering at all and periods like this just re-enforce my belief that there is a mighty struggle going on in the CB's and to whatever extent they can jack-up or slam the USD and Euro to manage the markets however they need to.

I could be totally mistaken about this but at this point they appear to be sharing the market misery and rewards by alternatively allowing the USD to soar a bit and then letting the Euro do the same off the backs of each other so that neither market gets too high or too low.

A Goldilocks market situation where there is nothing 'just right" about it. Just managed to the point that the US and EU markets almost alternate the good and bad days so that neither is crashing or soaring but holding their own. Stroked and managed the whole time by the FX markets with lots of help and direction from the MSM sound bites.

They are merely bailing water (or buckets of fiat) out of one life raft into the other when one market is getting hammered a bit too much and for too long. They just switch gears and role out the media stooges and Fed/EU officials to stroke the whole thing the other way.

A slow and unsteady teeter-totter so that neither side slides off the market deep end into a crash.

Apr 23, 2012 - 11:15am

The York Rite or American Rite known as Freemasonry

Dr. Jerome said :-

@York Rite, I suspect you know much more about the markets and metals than I do. However, I would appreciate you sharing your knowledge here and providing details & evidence for why metals move the way they do, rather than your typical critical posts. (In fairness, I have seen some neutral posts from you, but not often). Why not show up on an up day?

I don't know York Rite at all, but I have found over the years that people tend to choose an online Username/Persona that reflects their own personality, so PERHAPS this Wikipedia Page might help explain where York Rite might be "coming from" or what he perhaps represents online :-

Dr G
Apr 23, 2012 - 11:17am

FOMC meeting Tuesday &

FOMC meeting Tuesday & Wednesday. The metals will NOT remain silent through this. Either they drop further on FOMC manipulation or they spike up following the meeting. Is it or is it not time for printing in the name of formal QE? Too far from the election perhaps, but maybe not.

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