Mon, Apr 23, 2012 - 10:32am

The term applies in several contexts today. First, we are finally seeing resolution of the manufactured decline and bottom that began a year ago in silver and nearly eight months ago in gold. More importantly, however, the title applies to our own resolve as we summon the courage to stand with conviction as we face this final onslaught.

Trading and stacking has never been, and never will be, easy. You see, my friend, you and I are financial outliers. We see the truth behind the lies. We are aware of what is coming and we are trying to prepare. Because this notion flies in the face of the conventional and because the involuntary reaction of those whose normalcy bias is threatened is ridicule, you and I are often maligned as "conspiracy theorists" and "bugs". This is fine and we all laugh along when times are good and PM prices are rolling higher. On days like today, however, the tin-foil hat starts to get a little itchy.

So, what are you going to do? Do you have conviction? Are you resolute in your beliefs or are you simply a bandwagon-jumper, ready to run back to the "safety" of AAPL, Vanguard and a CD?

The world, as we've known it, has ended. A global financial tectonic shift has been underway now for over three years. There is no going back just as there is no stopping it. Now, you have a choice to make. You can continue on this path toward personal, financial protection or you can melt back into the herd. I, for one, will stand my ground. I know that I am right and I will not genuflect at the altar of the status quo.

Gold near $1600 is an extraordinarily attractive offer. After the Cartel Panic of last August, the paper price has been raided, suppressed and capped while physical demand caught up. We now stand at a point where gold has traced out a massive, 7-month reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. Additionally, at this price, we're told of significant sovereign and central bank demand for physical delivery. Where these two points meet represents the extraordinary opportunity to trade or stack. That point is right here, right now. Between 1595 and 1610, lies the final bottom to this brutal "correction". Gold will have retraced all the way back to where it was before the "debt ceiling debate" and subsequent S&P downgrade last July and August. Do you think this is coincidence? It's not. $1595-1610 is your floor.


Silver is also very near an historic bottom. Somewhere near $30 would represent a nice, symmetrical reverse head-and-shoulder bottom and it certainly looks like that's where we're headed. Take a close look at this first chart. After "Theft #1" last May, price double-bottomed near $33 and then rallied into "Theft #2" last September. Note that, again, price double-bottomed, this time near $26.


If this was the only chart we had, we would all have to be nervous about a pending "Theft #3". However, a quick look at the weekly chart and you'll see other details emerge. Note that there's not just a double-bottom at $26, it's a triple-bottom with the lows back in late January 2011 (Turd's Bottom). Note, also, the convergence of the primary, long-term trendline with these bottoms and the pending conclusion of the long-term, "wedge" pattern. So, let's sum up silver this way:

  • Could $30 silver be the final bottom of this year-long correction? Yes.
  • Could silver trade below $30? Yes.
  • Could silver continue sideways within the wedge for another 60-90 days? Yes.
  • Could silver briefly trade all the way down to $28. Yes.
  • Will silver trade down through $26. No.
  • Is this the time to give up? No.
  • Is it time to sell your stack? No.
  • In the end, will The Forces of Darkness prevail? No.


I leave you today with a few lines from the American patriot, Thomas Paine. At the bleakest hour of the American Revolution, Paine wrote the first missive of a series which he titled "The Crisis". America had begun its war of revolution in the warm days of summer six months earlier when 56 men mutually pledged their lives, their fortunes and their honor. After a six-month "correction", all was on the verge of being lost. The Continental Army was subject to de-enlistment and deserters. Morale was low. To some, defeat seemed inevitable. On a much smaller scale, we in Turdville stand at a similar point today. You are being tested. You must be strong. You must be resolute. You must have the courage of your conviction.

Stand with me. We will prevail. TF

These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value.

I thank God, that I fear not. I see no real cause for fear. I know our situation well, and can see the way out of it. This is our situation, and who will may know it. By perseverance and fortitude we have the prospect of a glorious issue; by cowardice and submission, the sad choice of a variety of evils — a ravaged country — a depopulated city — habitations without safety, and slavery without hope — our homes turned into barracks and bawdy-houses for Hessians, and a future race to provide for, whose fathers we shall doubt of. Look on this picture and weep over it! and if there yet remains one thoughtless wretch who believes it not, let him suffer it unlamented.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Number 47 · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:36am

Am I first?

I even read the whole article, edit. that'll be why I'm second then.....

proformatrillionaire · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:37am

First again?

Just bought another sleeve of silver eagles. Nice day to stack.

Big Buffalo · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:40am

Monarch Precious Metals

Monarch is not posting their prices for 90% coins as of a few minutes ago. You'll have to call to get prices now. I guess they are hedging and cutting any losses for metals they purchased.

Shnozberries · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:40am

tin hat is itchy

love that line

tpbeta · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:45am


I'd like me some of that $28 silver. Come on Ben. Make it happen.

theBuckWheat · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:46am

The only thing that matters

For me, the only thing that matters is that the creation of air-backed money continues, whether it is directly via mouse clicks (Create one trillion now? Ok? Are you sure?), via sovereign guarantees that facilitate a de facto change in bank reserve requirements, or via "leverage laundering" via "sterilized" debt repurchases that allow a bank to expand credit by changing the classification of an asset. The supply of money and money equivalents is expanding far faster than the supply of metal, whether gold or silver.

· Apr 23, 2012 - 10:47am

Ron Paul gets airtime?

Ron Paul has some space on CNBC today--a video on the perils of paper money. Hopefully this is national and not just posted there due to my surfing habits and the cookie trail I leave.

They are not cutting him any breaks here--attacking beginning with question 1. they are tag teaming against him and now that he is gaining some ground in the argument against the fed, the moderator changes the subject.

redwings103149 · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:50am



I have visited your thread for approximately 2 years or so. I currently have worked at a hedge fund in that period so I am no slouch when it comes to forecasting (especially since I was hired with my experience in commodities). A few things here. 1. It is an election year so be weary of stringent bottoms as the market will bite you in the ass 2. Oil has a very good shot to hit 80-85 and copper technicals look weak which can be attributed to a euro-recession, chinese slow-down, gasoline demand down 4% ytd, and 5 straight months of declining inflation. 3. Dollar holding 200 day moving average. This all could change by tomorrow, but more respect for the market needs to be heeded. How can you ever say for certain that we could not test 1375-1400 again? The answer is you can't, but your progression of posting has increasingly turned more into preaching then investing and rationality. The people reading your posts rely on your information probably at times to heavily and you need to become more equal in your approach as thinking a guaranteed bottom is neared is the time where you will be whipsawed the most. BTW I think we bounce around that area to but gld is a sell until 150sma is broken period.


dmanson · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:52am

The "Resolution"

We have to stick it out. Once you take the red pill, there really is no going back. "United we stand. Divided we fall." applies here. We gold/silver bugs need to stay tight as a group and grow as large as we can. Imagine if we were 10 times larger and the impact we would have...

Loud Noises · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:52am

Standing firm is easy

Think about it, as a stacker, standing firm in the face of this conflict is so easy. All you have to do is nothing at all. Sit on your stack. When you remove all the emotions and the news overload, just do nothing. If you still have courage and the means, of course one could BTFD. But it is enough at this point for those with a stack to do nothing. Its comforting to have it so simple with all the BS in the world.

tpbeta · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:56am


You mean we shouldn't blindly accept everything we're told? Thanks for pointing that out. But the whole point is we pay this guy for his opinions (and he works cheap)

Dr G · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:57am

Turd, thanks. I love this

Turd, thanks. I love this post. This post has it all for me--some TA and some words of wisdom. It falls in line with what I am personally thinking (I've been waiting for silver to drop a bit lower and form a more perfect reverse H&S). What a wonderful day to prepare for the future. Stand with hope and optimism yet be prepared for the worst.

dropout · Apr 23, 2012 - 10:57am

Read Turd's ZH Link

"I do not believe, any longer, that the catastrophe can be avoided and I would begin to immediately plan for an event that will eclipse the American financial crisis of 2007 - 2009 because this one will be far worse."

- Mark Grant

Maximillion · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:07am

Great Post

Sticking with you Mt T, been around here a while now and find the smackdowns more amusing every time. Stacking Rulz, though I'd love to catch a decent paper increase, so please keep us updated as to when you believe it's time to get in. 

tyberious · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:08am


Excellent Quote!

Dr G · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:12am

He is having some problems

He is having some problems today, isn't he. Geez, who in Europe isn't?

¤ · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:14am

Total conviction

Thanks for the update.

I'm not wavering at all and periods like this just re-enforce my belief that there is a mighty struggle going on in the CB's and to whatever extent they can jack-up or slam the USD and Euro to manage the markets however they need to. 

I could be totally mistaken about this but at this point they appear to be sharing the market misery and rewards by alternatively allowing the USD to soar a bit and then letting the Euro do the same off the backs of each other so that neither market gets too high or too low.

A Goldilocks market situation where there is nothing 'just right" about it. Just managed to the point that the US and EU markets almost alternate the good and bad days so that neither is crashing or soaring but holding their own. Stroked and managed the whole time by the FX markets with lots of help and direction from the MSM sound bites. 

They are merely bailing water (or buckets of fiat) out of one life raft into the other when one market is getting hammered a bit too much and for too long. They just switch gears and role out the media stooges and Fed/EU officials to stroke the whole thing the other way.

A slow and unsteady teeter-totter so that neither side slides off the market deep end into a crash.

Bobbejaan · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:15am

The York Rite or American Rite known as Freemasonry

Dr. Jerome said :-

@York Rite, I suspect you know much more about the markets and metals than I do. However, I would appreciate you sharing your knowledge here and providing details & evidence for why metals move the way they do, rather than your typical critical posts. (In fairness, I have seen some neutral posts from you, but not often). Why not show up on an up day?

I don't know York Rite at all, but I have found over the years that people tend to choose an online Username/Persona that reflects their own personality, so PERHAPS this Wikipedia Page might help explain where York Rite might be "coming from" or what he perhaps represents online :-

Dr G · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:17am

FOMC meeting Tuesday &

FOMC meeting Tuesday & Wednesday. The metals will NOT remain silent through this. Either they drop further on FOMC manipulation or they spike up following the meeting. Is it or is it not time for printing in the name of formal QE? Too far from the election perhaps, but maybe not.

· Apr 23, 2012 - 11:19am

another key quote from the ZH article

 "If everything is so great at home; they would not need to come begging from other nations. I believe there is a clue here, a real indication of the problems and a real sign of the severity of the issues."

Yup - beggars begging from beggars. Buggers the mind.

Much4Him · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:25am

From the movie Courageous

Great movie by the way:


I do solemnly resolve before God to take full responsibility for myself, my wife, and my children.

  • I WILL love them, protect them, serve them, and teach them the Word of God as the spiritual leader of my home.
  • I WILL be faithful to my wife, to love and honor her, and be willing to lay down my life for her as Jesus Christ did for me.
  • I WILL bless my children and teach them to love God with all of their hearts, all of their minds, and all of their strength.
  • I WILL train them to honor authority and live responsibly.
  • I WILL confront evil, pursue justice, and love mercy.
  • I WILL pray for others and treat them with kindness, respect, and compassion.
  • I WILL work diligently to provide for the needs of my family.
  • I WILL forgive those who have wronged me and reconcile with those I have wronged.
  • I WILL learn from my mistakes, repent of my sins, and walk with integrity as a man answerable to God.
  • I WILL seek to honor God, be faithful to His church, obey His Word, and do His will.
  • I WILL courageously work with thestrength God provides to fulfill this resolution for

the rest of my life and for His glory. As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord. – Joshua 24:15

RaRaRasputin · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:25am

Posted last night but seems appropriate to repost

Well it is Sunday night here in the UK and the markets will once again be open in a few hours. It feels like the going has been really hard for the likes of our community in the last few weeks and months and I thought I would share this that I stumbled across should anyone be doubting why we do what we do ... (whilst reading just replace DTOM with TFMR :)

Many of my friends and acquaintances think I’m a little hard to talk to. I spend a lot of conversational time with them discussing such weird topics as precious metals as money, impending economic collapse, government tyranny, and preparedness. Many find these ideas disquieting at the least, and downright terrifying at worst. As a result, many consider talking to me to be somewhat depressing.

To me, talking about these difficult topics is both frustrating and fascinating, but not depressing. Since this is my first post at DTOM, I decided to make sure it is upbeat instead of a “downer”. The fact is, we all have numerous reasons to be optimistic about the future, so I thought I’d remind myself and the readers of some of these. Let’s have a list!

(1) We are prepared. Just reading DTOM puts you way ahead of the curve, even if you don’t have a single ounce of gold or silver, own a firearm, live on a sulf-sufficient farm, or have a basement full of food. The mental leap of just admitting that there are significant current and future challenges, and educating yourself about them, vastly increases your chances of surmounting them as they occur. Of course, if you are able to prepare physically as well as mentally, that will only help that much more.

(2) We are part of the solution. History has shown us that those who can anticipate a crisis ahead of the bulk of their peers stand not only a better chance of surviving the immediate disaster, but also are usually the ones to help their neighbors and communities to recover, since they have thought out the consequences and recovery actions well in advance of the problem. By reading and participating at DTOM and thinking through these issues, you are serving your neighbors and communities as well as yourself.

(3) Corruption does not last.  It’s very easy to become worn down by the constant drumbeat of graft and malfeasance in the world, both in goverment and in the financial world (silver price suppression, anyone?). The fact is, corruption is a cancer that eventually kills its host. Corrupt politicians get caught and jailed. Corrupt financial systems crumble under the weight of mathematics. Corrupt governments topple. Nothing built on lies and deception can stand the test of time. This too shall pass. Be ready to help build something better from the ashes.

(4) We are living history. The names of those living in a golden age of plenty and prosperity are rarely remembered. But those who live through trying times of strife, and rise to the occasion, become heroes to posterity. Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Franklin, and the rest were of course remarkable men, but it was the forge of revolution that tempered them into great icons of human history. It is most productive to view extraordinary events, even disasterous events, as opportunities to make history instead of as misfortune that befalls us.

Just some things to keep in mind as we all navigate the uncharted waters ahead. Of course there is and will continue to be unease and trepidation, but there are also reasons for positivity and hope. Don’t let the one completely overshadow the other…be optimistic!

I believe all of the above and am 100% resolute.


ACM · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:28am

Standing With Metal In My STRONG Hands

I'm not going anywhere Turd. One of my ancestors was one of those 56. They told us that a Dollar was silver or its' equivalent MARKET value of gold. Screw all the bleating little pee-pants FED and big government apologists. The only thing you need to ask is whether you trust these clowns who want to run our lives? Do you trust them to tell you what represents value and capital?

No I don't. The gaggle of Ivy League numb nuts who think they can plan our economy and decide what medical care we are allowed and what we can eat can go straight to Hell and take their train of abuses and usurpations with them before we collectively shove them right back up their collective ass!

Stacking. And not just PM's.

¤ · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:29am

10 yr UST

The one thing they are doing (and need to do) is keep that 10 yr note down from where it was headed a couple weeks ago. Mission accomplished so far. 

An artificially induced ZIRP world assures that the market remains schizo. How could the a $400-500 billion dollar IMF fund put together this weekend to keep the EU glued together not have any positive price effect on gold or silver to the extent it sold off at precisely 3:00 a.m. London open?

A junkie will always need more and more stimulus to raise an eyebrow and feel comfortable. When will this CB/FX market fixing OD on itself?

When the numerical weight/values of the newly created liquidity drowns out any semblance of a real and honest functionable market is the point when it becomes completely clear that a real market is no longer in place. We're getting there I think.

Mickey · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:30am

I am more concerned about society collapse-globally

I have my PM, guns , ammo and food.

Not sure I want to be a hermit.

Not sure I want to spend a good portion of the rest of my life sitting in a chair in courtyard.

No clue on how I can change what appears to be destiny. Not sure what choices I really have.

I am pretty bummed out.

Hopefully my kids will survive to get to other side of this whatever we have and be able to enjoy a good life in te next real recovery due to hard assets I have cause I do not think I will live long enough to see "the other side"

cowdiddly · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:37am

This isnt even about the money anymore

I read some where that there is lest than one tenth on an ounce of silver for every one on the planet. At this point I own a small towns populations share of that tenth. Lots of slackers

It is not even about the money anymore it about ending the crime collusion and corruption in the metals market. I will continue to buy every stinkin ounce I can afford to take it off the market and bury it until it is fairly valued. I just wish one billionare would help Sprott or a nation would grow some balls and say enough is enough and step up. Hugo I know you are trying. Mexico? nationalize NOW the crooks are stealing your countries last valuable resource just like they did with PEMEX and oil.

survivalwstyle · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:39am

love payne

patriots stand taLL. piTTer paTTer RaRa. you rock girl. we nEEd to lead by example. when the fishing line drops, that is why we play this game, weLL that and that we know how it ends, just not when. this london olympic QE diamond jubilEE us election sEEms to me to kEEp the raps on PM's. i stiLL think any chance under 1600 and 30 is niBBle niBBle. hOOk line and sinker are aLL in place. i wiLL say it. i am in no huRRy. you can hate the game but don't hate the player. know you are with the gOOd. F the gmen/bankster pack of liars. glad to be on your team mrF. thanks for the continued enlightenment. puTTing it out there is what it is aLL about. someone had to do. thank you. peace

JimmyTheHand · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:40am

Weathering the storm

I have to echo back the sentiment some have brought up here recently. It's getting easier and easier for me to weather price drops. When I first started stacking I used to watch the price every day and clap or boo on a .05 move. Now we have dollar fluctuations and it doesn't even phase me. 

It's like you said Turd, I know I'm right. Stacking has been the best investment I have made and will continue to be in the coming years. 

I for one am looking forward to the FOMC meeting, but I bet I can tell you all what is going to be said. A whole lot of nothing, pressure will continue on Gold and Silver until the market craps out. Then QE to the rescue....

Mickey · Apr 23, 2012 - 11:40am


I think Turd is generally correct in his views--timing may be a tad off but hey--just who had a great batting average now a days? He is among the leaders who has the guts to take a position/stance on this.

With the market selling off--and I do not believe the housing market is really improving, and I do not think employment is really leading us out of this funk disaster, whats the likelihood of the Fed moving from covert printing and buying treasuries to overt?

After all, many here understand that with 200 bil of deficit spending each of the last 2 months and with other countries and potential buyers in deep doo doo, just who is left to buy our debt? The fed had primary dealers buying the crap. But if rates go up how do the PD's explain that mark to market loss (oops--that will fall under "we hold till maturity and get full value albeit devalued)

We are soo FUBAR --PM is nice to have but so meaningless in what's going to happen on a much grander scale than anyone realizes.

Austerity is coming to the US whether we want it, like it, or not. All the pension "guarantees"--good bye

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