Friday Afternoon Link Dump

221
Fri, Apr 20, 2012 - 5:49pm

The Turd humbly submits a short reading list for the weekend.

First of all, we should discuss the latest CoT. I was all excited to see the numbers and, instead, it's mostly a non-event with no clear signals either way. Gold, as discussed here repeatedly, has seen its total OI fall under 400,000 which is down about 20% from the OI highs of late February. This past reporting week alone, total OI fell over 1% but the internals are kind of strange. Spec longs and Cartel longs both cut about 2,300 contracts while The Cartel short position increased by about 2,700. Interestingly, long and short small specs both fell by nearly 2,000. What the heck is going on here? Beat's the living daylights out of me! Here's the weirdest part: Large spec shorts declined by 7,648 or roughly 22%. It's only one indicator but, on balance, this report does not indicate that gold is ready to explode higher. Maybe sometime soon but likely not yet.

In silver, the picture is equally confusing. In stark contrast to gold, the large specs did virtually nothing. The small specs though, who were busily dumping long and short positions in gold, were busily adding long and short positions in silver. Huh? Very strange. On top of this, the EE added long and short positions, too, though the longs addition was about twice the short addition in percentage terms, bringing the net short ratio down to 1.59:1. Again, in contrast to gold, total OI surged over 6% to 121,448, all while price for the period was essentially flat. Very, very strange.

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1334950407.php

I mean, it's just weird. Total OI is the highest it has been all year but price is down $6 from its high. And, a month ago, silver OI was just 107,000 while price was roughly $32, right where it is today. So, why the tug-of-war? A 13% rise in OI while price is flat. Gonna have to think about this one for a while but something odd is going on. Just can't put my finger on it yet.

Perhaps it has something to do with this? The changing tides of registered and eligible silver are getting a lot of attention these days. Andrew Maguire told me earlier this week that he didn't think it was that big of a deal as he was once in a vault where registered vs eligible is simply delineated by a big, blue line on the floor and silver is routinely moved by forklift each way and back. Maybe that's the case but it seems that Jesse doesn't think so.

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/04/comex-silver-inventory-watch-heading.html

More on the silver story comes from Goldcore. (Maybe they should rename it Gold&Silvercore?)

https://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/silver-seen-over-40oz-2012-%E2%80%93-store-value-remains-undervalued-0

And if you haven't watched this yet, you probably should:

Video unavailable

ZeroHedge posted this interesting compilation a few hours ago. They address the negative press that gold has gotten this week. I enjoyed reading it because I had no idea that these articles cited were even out there. The one that addresses gold OI I found to be particularly negligent as it paints a picture of declining Comex demand as an indicator of declining investment demand. What a joke! As a source, it uses a London-based analyst with Credit Suisse. The source, Cilline Bain, four years removed from university, is either hopelessly inexperienced, deliberately misleading or just plain stupid. (https://uk.linkedin.com/in/cillinebain)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/other-side-gold-and-silver-coin

Here's another fun piece on gold manipulation, this time from Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin.

https://www.coinweek.com/commentary/opinion/major-gold-and-silver-price-suppression-now-a-weekly-occurrence-so-what/

And, finally, when looking for the CoT numbers at goldseek, I found this piece of TA. It's reasonably well-written and likely worth a few minutes of your time.

https://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1334944357.php

Alright, that's it. It's late Friday afternoon and I need a beer (or 6). It's officially springtime so I think I'll crack open either a Shiner Blonde or a Sam Adams Summer Ale. Tough choice, huh? Hang in there and keep the faith. Try to get some R&R this weekend as next week promises to be pretty volatile with the French elections, the continuing deterioration in Spain and the FOMC meeting.

See you Monday unless the beer helps to clarify the weird CoT and OI changes in silver, in which case I'll add an update to this post.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  221 Comments

Monedas
Apr 22, 2012 - 8:36am

Barter Buns, wherein farts thou ?

Zilverreiger is getting sexually aroused about Chinese/Russian naval exercises ! Well, the US and Viet Nam are doing the same ! Where's Jane Fonda....I don't want to shit on her flat chest right now....I want to strap her to the prow of a Vietnamese destroyer as a figure head ! Myanmar is distancing itself from China, too ! China's client states Syria and Iran are writhing in their own poo ! North Korea's missle had a mysterious demise ! Me happy ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad I Went To A War And A Hockey Game Broke Out !

Monedas
Apr 22, 2012 - 8:52am

Holy Clinking Coins....Batman !

Einhorn uses shoehorn to stuff his bitch in a box ! If he had only back filled the spaces with lime....he might have gotten away with it ! Everything is coming up roses ! What a beautiful way to start my day ! I love Sundays anyway....because the metals start trading....but this is wunderbar ! Praise the Lord ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Karma-O-Rama !

ClinkinKY
Apr 22, 2012 - 9:24am

@ Monedas

zil reminds me of my late mother. "Never happy unless she was miserable". Sad really.

zilverreiger
Apr 22, 2012 - 9:41am

lol glory my ass, replace the

lol glory my ass, replace the variables and you sound like a towel head

Monedas
Apr 22, 2012 - 9:44am

Fort America Surrounded By Savages !

Plenty of savages inside the palisades, too ! Inspite of unrelenting hostility, treason, sabotage directed by a spoil sport sick Socialist world....we are still here....Old Glory is still flying....we can still turn this thing around....we have to be ourselves and rediscover what made us a beacon of hope for humanity....full speed ahead....under God ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad It Ain't Always Easy Being Free....Being A Slave Sucks 24/7 !

I Run Bartertown
Apr 22, 2012 - 9:51am

Dead Society's Poet? Monedas.

Can a Nation commit treason against itself?

Yes, Monedas, and it has. "we have to be ourselves" - this IS who "we" are now.

"Old Glory is still flying....we can still turn this thing around..."

Nope. Onward and Upward. This 'Nation' made a choice...displaced its own loyal, hard-working dog - in favor of the fleas.

What shall we create in its place?...New Sparta? I'm in.

Monedas
Apr 22, 2012 - 9:56am

Zilver Reicher Van Der Sloot ?

You need a little Carribean get away....ever been to Aruba ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Dutch Butch Bitch !


Apr 22, 2012 - 10:01am

I am actually proud that my kid was there -

how many people do you think are there? The crowd estimates always crack me up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptuPU5V7hY&feature=relmfu
ClinkinKY George Clooney
Apr 22, 2012 - 10:06am

@ Xty

Wish I'd had the "snack concessions" there. I could retire right now

ClinkinKY
Apr 22, 2012 - 10:43am

Sigh: MSNBC Contributes To Race Relations...

...of course it has nothing to do with governing. (The same people who elected him are now "racists"...ok)

MSNBC: White Voters Hold Obama To Higher Standard Because He’s Black…

MSNBC hosts agreed this weekend that white voters hold President Obama to a higher standard than his white predecessors because he is black.

“[Obama] now has a specific record of governing,” MSNBC’s Melissa Harris-Perry said today on her show. “A record that, I contend, because of his race will be held to a much higher standard than it would have been for a white incumbent. Those white voters who found what they were looking for in 2008 will not necessarily be so enthusiastic in 2012.”

Alex Wagner, host of MSNBC’s NOW, agreed. “I think race absolutely has to do with the conversation about reelection,” she said.

Keep reading…

waxybilldupp Monedas
Apr 22, 2012 - 10:45am

@Monedas - Fort America

"....we have to be ourselves and rediscover what made us a beacon of hope for humanity..."

Perhaps, we need to become a bacon of hope for humanity?

treefrog
Apr 22, 2012 - 10:45am

if i had a......

if i had an account with bank of amerika, it would look like the one McMillan Group International just closed.

Monedas ClinkinKY
Apr 22, 2012 - 10:56am

Clinky, You Made My Sunday....Again !

I could clean my Weber barbecue grill with the corrosive gas that hisses out of those MSNBC forked tongued rat holes ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Pleased Pie Hole PS: I go now before the Mod Squad wakes up ! Waxybuildupp....one of my Top 10 favourite handles....Carbon Skid Marks, Clowns On Acid, Ass Fire etc. !

Arjen
Apr 22, 2012 - 10:59am

@xty

Looks like an average large festival crowd to me. I'd guestimate 15-20k

And i'd be a shitload of work to provide them all snacks. I just did it with 5 friends for a 400 people event this weekend and that seemed to be more than enough :)

I Run Bartertown
Apr 22, 2012 - 11:00am

ClinkinKY

Welcome to your future...and for all posterity...

Will any future descendant of yours be free of this? Clinton was the first to gloat publicly about it, but the demographics dictate that the conversation will NEVER again be about policy - but about pandering. It's corrosive by design.

Don't believe me? Then how does cutting Fed spending morph from a math problem to a hate issue? Well, look at who would disproportionately lose jobs and get angry, without a thought, ever, of WHY that would be a disproportionate effect. If you were never being hired preferentially, then how would Federal cuts impact you disproportionately?

Monedas
Apr 22, 2012 - 11:08am

I'm disgusted, too, Barter Bilge !

Where is there a little Libertarian island with friendly natives...sigh ! It's looking pretty dark....but the Internet is really stirring things up ! The world is in denial....but Americanism is a powerful force in so many ways on so many levels ! We have to show a scared world that we can turn ourselves around....they WILL follow ! Dump America's first gay, de facto President....David Axelrod ! Monedas 1929 Forget the Black Swan Obama....he's the puppet....Pink Swain Axelrod is the focus of evil ! Axelrod will betray America like Hitler betrayed Germany....if he gets four more years ? Notice how Starved Ego Axelrod is getting his Puss in front of the camera, lately ?

71185208
Apr 22, 2012 - 11:55am

Thanks for the links, but I hope Victor sticks around

Thanks for the links Tabberto, will look at them in due course (got exams soon so extra reading will have to take a back seat for a while).

By the way, I really like Victor's comments. It's always good to read stuff that forces you to reevaluate and even sometimes question your own assumptions. I hope he keeps posting here.

Victor, what do you do for a living, if you are out there? Are you a banker of some sort? An economist? Just curious how you came to have the views you do, it seems like it must be a part of your career.

I think part of the problem that we face is that for ordinary plebs who are not connected to a bullion bank or big trading house so much of what goes on in the futures market and the OTC market is opaque, murky, and data is too generalized, and summarized and delayed (e.g. COT reports) to be of great use. I wouldn't be surprised if there are people who know exactly where all the stops are, even if those stop orders are from people who aren't clients...I suspect some of the players in the metals market don't even have to guess intelligently what the current real time structure of open interest is and what someone else's clients are doing in the futures market at any one time. I suspect they know. Just a hunch, but it's in keeping with the spirit of finance these days.

The best we can do is invest and/or speculate with to the best of our information and knowledge. We might not all have the means or the time to trade futures but we can find opportunities for speculation that fit our particular risk preferences.

How is the TITS indicator looking these days? I'd be curious to know if it confirms what Charles Nenner said, that silver has bottomed...

Gold Buffalo
Apr 22, 2012 - 11:59am

Mkt Anthropology

Can anyone figure out what this guy is saying? He likes to speak in metaphors. https://www.safehaven.com/article/25146/the-aqueduct

Magpie
Apr 22, 2012 - 12:00pm

McCain betrayed America

The last paragraph will tell you everything you need to know about the coward.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/04/stratfor-emails-show-democrats-...

According to stolen Stratfor emails published on Wikileaks, John McCain’s campaign in 2008 had evidence that the Obama Campaign was stuffing ballot boxes in Ohio and Pennsylvania and also had proof that the Obama team had “sleazy” Russian money in their coffers.

I Run Bartertown
Apr 22, 2012 - 12:12pm

Magpie

The Sequel has already begun. Do you think that Romney will attack in the general the way he did in the primary? Do you think someone in the the RNC will do something about ballot stuffing in '12? Nah, they would get called mean names...and there's NOTHING (not even wholesale loss of a way of life) they fear more than getting called mean names.

¤
Apr 22, 2012 - 12:24pm

Victor

No problem here with Victor overall, despite the axe grinder pic to the contrary. It fit at the time.

I think it's more of the message and not the messenger type of thing with Vic. And I also think it's the message that is consistent in it's somewhat anti-silver/anti-KWN/Maguire conspiratorial theme that rubs many of us the wrong way. Everyone has their opinions but those 3 predominant one's seem to be what rubs or irks most, I think. I can only speak for myself but that's what I see.

Having said that, I also like the bulk of the well-thought out contributions and 'food for thought' type of posts Victor puts out. And I encourage Victor to keep participating to whatever extent he wants to or feels strongly about. At this point we all understand each other quite well and what will illicit a reaction by accident or design from either side on these issue's.

I prefer to think it's just a strong contrarian opinion that runs across the grain of the this site, generally speaking. I look forward to seeing how the conversation progresses, either way.

Tecumseh
Apr 22, 2012 - 1:02pm
71185208
Apr 22, 2012 - 1:06pm

Unbelievable

I am starting to suspect that Paul Krugman is on the the payroll of Ben Bernanke. Can you belive that he said the following AND BELIEVED WHAT HE HIMSELF SAID? "Quantitative easing isn’t being imposed on an unwitting populace by financiers and rentiers; it’s being undertaken, to the extent that it is, over howls of protest from the financial industry. " "The naive (or deliberately misleading) version of Fed policy is the claim that Ben Bernanke is “giving money” to the banks. What it actually does, of course, is buy stuff, usually short-term government debt but nowadays sometimes other stuff. It’s not a gift. To claim that it’s effectively a gift you have to claim that the prices the Fed is paying are artificially high, or equivalently that interest rates are being pushed artificially low. And you do in fact see assertions to that effect all the time. But if you think about it for even a minute, that claim is truly bizarre." To be a Keynesian is one thing, but to state that the financial industry HOWLED in protest at QE and that the Fed is not artificially inflating bond prices (and lowering interest rates)... Well, my goodness, I used to assume that these guys really believed in Keynesiansim. This is a smart guy. His IQ is probably many points higher than mine. For him to make such inane and fundamentally stupid comments I have to believe someone is bribing him to do it. He has to know he sounds like an imbecile. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/krugman-rebutts-sic-spitznagel-princeton-...

ClinkinKY 71185208
Apr 22, 2012 - 1:10pm

@ 71185208--re Paul Krugman

How dare you. Paul Krugman is a Nobel winner. As is Barack Obama, Yasser Arafat, etc, etc /s

Groaner George Clooney
Apr 22, 2012 - 1:28pm

Stinking hot here near the

Stinking hot here near the equator. 5 more days. China allows its banks to dump dollars should give the USd a spanking. However the USd has been going down last week an gold still did nothing

thesandbox
Apr 22, 2012 - 1:36pm

Re: Gold to Go ....Gold ATM's

When I arrived in Leipzig Germany this morning they had a new one coming out the arrivals area. It must only be a few weeks old as I am in and out of there at least a couple times each month and it was the first time I had seen it. I didn't have a lot of time to stop and look as the rest of my crew was heading to our transport van but the silver eagles were $45 and gold you could get in various sizes. I have seen them in the UAE before but looks like they are starting to pop up all over with a few in the US as well. Anyone here around Leipzig that wants cheaper prices PM me and let me know as I can probably do better then that almost 30% premium. ;) https://www.gold-to-go.com/en/the-gold-vending-machine/the-gold-vending-...

¤
Apr 22, 2012 - 1:56pm

Significant

BREAKING NEWS: EGYPT-ISRAEL TIES Egypt says it will cancel 2005 natural gas deal with Israel

Just came out. No story yet.

Something fundamentally has changed within the past year in Egypt and whatever that Arab Spring was truly about. Imho, it was something much deeper then a public outpouring for change and democracy that it appeared to be.

Posting a new story shortly at the news thread that belies the gravity of where this is headed. A war in the Sinai seems just as likely as one in Iran, maybe both at once on two fronts.

Oil will hit $200 if that happens.

murphy 71185208
Apr 22, 2012 - 2:07pm

@7118

If you liked that story on ZH you will love it on TBP from Quinn

This elitist douchebag Ivy League asshole actually declares that there is no inflation and that Bernanke’s zero interest rate policy does not benefit the Wall Street banks while destroying the finances of senior citizens across the land. This is proof that ultra-liberals like Krugman and neo-con scum like Romney believe exactly the same thing. There are no differences among the ruling elite. They are circling the wagons as a small faction of critical thinking Americans reveal their cabal.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=33403#comment-128922

He ends his article

We may get a scene straight out of Scanners. And we don’t want that – we just want more Krugman humor and more LSAP, aka Large Scale Asshat Publications. In fact, it is time for the Fed to stop printing money and just print Krugman Op-Eds. Following the laughter-induced genocide, unemployment will indeed finally drop for once naturally, instead of as a result of millions of people dropping out of the labor force on a monthly basis.

Excalibur
Apr 22, 2012 - 2:30pm

Keen on Krugman

If you really need to make up your mind about Krugman and his ilk (which I doubt), and have an accelerated learning experience about banking:

Just Banking Presentation Edinburgh 2012

Keen hits some killer blows on the Nobel Laureate. NL what a joke.

I Run Bartertown
Apr 22, 2012 - 2:34pm

   Note the weak chin,

Note the weak chin, asymmetrical facial structure, lazy eye, crooked lean, slouched posture, and generally rumpled demeanor.

It's Nature's way of warning you. Don't let the kitty fool you, this 'man' is no Aristo-cat. This is the sort of creepy-crawly thing that can only rise to great stature in a system such as ours.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

randomness