Friday Afternoon Link Dump

Fri, Apr 20, 2012 - 5:49pm

The Turd humbly submits a short reading list for the weekend.

First of all, we should discuss the latest CoT. I was all excited to see the numbers and, instead, it's mostly a non-event with no clear signals either way. Gold, as discussed here repeatedly, has seen its total OI fall under 400,000 which is down about 20% from the OI highs of late February. This past reporting week alone, total OI fell over 1% but the internals are kind of strange. Spec longs and Cartel longs both cut about 2,300 contracts while The Cartel short position increased by about 2,700. Interestingly, long and short small specs both fell by nearly 2,000. What the heck is going on here? Beat's the living daylights out of me! Here's the weirdest part: Large spec shorts declined by 7,648 or roughly 22%. It's only one indicator but, on balance, this report does not indicate that gold is ready to explode higher. Maybe sometime soon but likely not yet.

In silver, the picture is equally confusing. In stark contrast to gold, the large specs did virtually nothing. The small specs though, who were busily dumping long and short positions in gold, were busily adding long and short positions in silver. Huh? Very strange. On top of this, the EE added long and short positions, too, though the longs addition was about twice the short addition in percentage terms, bringing the net short ratio down to 1.59:1. Again, in contrast to gold, total OI surged over 6% to 121,448, all while price for the period was essentially flat. Very, very strange.

I mean, it's just weird. Total OI is the highest it has been all year but price is down $6 from its high. And, a month ago, silver OI was just 107,000 while price was roughly $32, right where it is today. So, why the tug-of-war? A 13% rise in OI while price is flat. Gonna have to think about this one for a while but something odd is going on. Just can't put my finger on it yet.

Perhaps it has something to do with this? The changing tides of registered and eligible silver are getting a lot of attention these days. Andrew Maguire told me earlier this week that he didn't think it was that big of a deal as he was once in a vault where registered vs eligible is simply delineated by a big, blue line on the floor and silver is routinely moved by forklift each way and back. Maybe that's the case but it seems that Jesse doesn't think so.

More on the silver story comes from Goldcore. (Maybe they should rename it Gold&Silvercore?)

And if you haven't watched this yet, you probably should:

Video unavailable

ZeroHedge posted this interesting compilation a few hours ago. They address the negative press that gold has gotten this week. I enjoyed reading it because I had no idea that these articles cited were even out there. The one that addresses gold OI I found to be particularly negligent as it paints a picture of declining Comex demand as an indicator of declining investment demand. What a joke! As a source, it uses a London-based analyst with Credit Suisse. The source, Cilline Bain, four years removed from university, is either hopelessly inexperienced, deliberately misleading or just plain stupid. (

Here's another fun piece on gold manipulation, this time from Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin.

And, finally, when looking for the CoT numbers at goldseek, I found this piece of TA. It's reasonably well-written and likely worth a few minutes of your time.

Alright, that's it. It's late Friday afternoon and I need a beer (or 6). It's officially springtime so I think I'll crack open either a Shiner Blonde or a Sam Adams Summer Ale. Tough choice, huh? Hang in there and keep the faith. Try to get some R&R this weekend as next week promises to be pretty volatile with the French elections, the continuing deterioration in Spain and the FOMC meeting.

See you Monday unless the beer helps to clarify the weird CoT and OI changes in silver, in which case I'll add an update to this post.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 21, 2012 - 1:17am

COMEX inventory, "swap", and regulators

If anyone still has any faith in the regulators or the COMEX reports, how do you think the "swap" definition is going? Seems like "swap" was going to be defined, then traders would have 90 days to get their positions down within the defined limits. Been done yet? Nope. Of course we know from Blythe's interview that JP Morgan has no net position, so it would not effect them. Regulators are playing Secret Service Agent with "investors" at a GSA party.

Bloomberg reports that COMEX inventories are at all time highs! Look out silver buyers, you are about to get whacked! BS!! COMEX claims to have a total of 141 million ounces. Great! What are they going to do if 1/2 of the investors in SLV demand physical? Lets see, SLV claims that they have 309 million ounces, so divide by 2, that would mean that they would need to deliver 154.5 million ounces. I did not major in math, but I do seem to remember that 154>141. Also 309>141. I do understand that SLV holdings are supposedly separate from COMEX inventory, but I grantee you that SLV does not have 309 million ounces of physical. Paper price is a fantasy.

Apr 21, 2012 - 1:21am

Charts off the charts!

Hey there Turd! I have been watching all sorts of charts from global warming, consumer confidence, frog depletion, to certain financial fundamentals and they all seem to be going parabolic. What are the odds, should I make a chart? Are all the statisticians making all their charts go parabolic to make a big splash in whatever field they are in or are we in a world of imminent pain? I am getting chart fatigue! I liked it better when I was digging a hole in the ground to prepare for the asteroid impact, (an inverse parabolic chart!) Terrence McKenna suggested that in 2012 the IChing, Mayan Calender, and the law of complexity would all converge and create a parabolic chart. How long will this go on? (I see a parabolic chart coming!!!) Get back to me after the weekend and I will let you know how the mushrooms were!

Apr 21, 2012 - 1:24am

silver delivery week

Ist notice day in about a week on the May contract. Wonder how many will stand?

Apr 21, 2012 - 1:36am

my thoughts

I'm nervous. But generally a mistake to be nervous at / near the bottom (or after a correction). Easy to feel euphoric when gold hit 1900, reality is that feeling nervous then was a good idea ....

The amount of misinformation / disinformation is incredible. Gold now trades as a 'referendum' on QE3. Prior to 29 Feb it was just trading higher on expansion of central bank balance sheet.

I'm not sure if my logic is correct, but I'm vaguely encouraged by the sideways action after the smackdowns of 13 Mar and 3 Apr. TPTB and all their agents have been gunning for gold, and would love the opportunity to blow stops and get algos short. There are obviously pretty decent buyers in the background (not just China, possibly India, Russia and others).

Santa I find encouraging overall to stay in there. But he also is prone to euphoria. A few months ago it was the 'religious experience' that was going to be made by those short miners. This call was completely wrong. Those who have been short miners have cleaned up.

Anyway, I'm off now for a run over the Sydney Harbour Bridge and round the Opera House. Would appreicate any comments on the above! Thanks.

Apr 21, 2012 - 1:39am

An oil shale story

I finished my job interview yesterday. Thanks for the well-wishing! Now I wait to learn if we relocates back near the family homestead. I spent today with my 75 year old father, running errands, visiting the museum and just talking. Tonight, I was reading through one of his journals that we are trying to scan and preserve. Since the news in metals is slow, I though I would share one of dad's oil shale stories. Names have been changed to protect the innocent. the story is told in dad's voice: About 1950 when Oral Roberts was curing people through the Bible belt, my grandmother, a widow since 1940, who had inherited a ranch and manor house in Grand Valley Colorado, had begun to develop a mobile home park in her 20 acre apple orchard and take in boarders in her 4-bedroom, 2-story house. A 30-something couple named the Horners (If I recall) took residence in her home. He gave occasional sermons as Rev. Horner from Oklahoma with his floozy wife, at the Grand Valley Methodist Church. Attendance most sundays was about 45. It was the main church of the village. My parents, who traveled once a month or so to visit grandmother--my father's mother and he her favorite son out of 5 sons--were introduced to the Horners, her kind wonderful renters.

As the months unfolded, Rev. Horner began acquiring real-estate with a particular eye to the oil-shale development promised by post WWII research of the Dept. of Navy Experimental Plant at Anvil Point--a prominent local cliff in the Bookcliff formation It was a site where the technology was developed where oil shale could be mined and heat treated to deliver drops of oil from cooked rock. As a result of Mr. Horner's optimism, he became a local promoter of the golden future of oil shale and primarily a signer of promissory notes to my grandmother to acquire portions of the family's oil shale land. He bought the old horse barn acreage across the road from the house, a cow pasture adjacent to her house, and sheep grazing rangeland adjoining the town, all with an appropriate down payment. As my parents continued their holiday visits to 60-something grandmother, I would hear their conversations driving back home expressing worries that Grandmother might well be in the clutches of a charming con-man playing upon her sentiments for Oklahoma hard-times. She, having departed Oklahoma in 1908 with her young family to travel by wagon to western Colorado, had only a strong empathy for the strugglers of the dust-bowl 1930s. Grandfather, had in the same years, acquired land, and through depression era privations, had built a large sheep ranch through careful management and available cash at tax sales. Here was naive grandmother cheerfully selling off this parcel and that to what seemed obviously to everyone else to be a charlatan preacher and his overly done wife. When my father or any of her other children, worried about the loss of both their mothers assets and not doubt their own heritage, questioned their mother about the wisdom of her decisions, her answer was that "This man and his lovely wife represented the future of their community and Rev. Horner should be encouraged in his promotional efforts. He was such a charming and energetic man." In 1952, the Horners quit my grandmother's home and moved to California, we were told. They defaulted on most of the land payments and I never heard again of the charming couple. My father died in 1959. More recently, I was inquiring of my uncle, who had retired to southern Arizona, about whatever happened to the Horners. He told me the rest of the story. My father and his four brothers finally acknowledged their mutual concern for the estate and had a meeting. It was probably during October big game hunting season because my youngest uncle who operated the family ranch also hired out as a hunting guide and all the brothers would return home for their annual hunting season reunion. That particular year, their business was not about their own families, the sheep business which was always profitable but never good, but it was about their mother. She was captivated by a charming con-man who would have nothing to do with their sibling cynicism and concerns, They decided in council that the Horners had no place in their family life. My father was elected spolesman, age 42, to speak to Mr. Horner who was about his own age. According to my uncle, the message was" "If you're still here 2 weeks from now, one of us will shoot you. This is a small pioneer town. You will disappear and no one, no one will know where you went. You have no friends in this town and won't be missed if you left town tomorrow." The Horners moved away and I never heard my parents nor aunts and uncles mention that name again until I asked from curiosity who those people were when I was but 12 years old. I painted a picture of the cliffs above my uncles sheep ranch and called it "The Promised Land." About every 30 years, some energy company decides that oil shale is a promising new source of petroleum. Last time in 1983, several major oil companies, after renaming the town of Grand valley into "Parachute," Colorado, closed their experimental plants and departed as did the Horners for greener pastures. Grand valley is still an arid shale borne landscape. My grandmother died ten years later, a week after my father. I believe she always knew why the Horners moved away. She left a home and 3000 acres of rangeland. A story of the not-so-old west from the family archives.
Apr 21, 2012 - 1:48am

Turd News?

Since it's the weekend... Speaking of "Dumps", found this linked on Drudge Report...

Maryland Man Facing Illegal Dumping Charge

Suspect, 48, gave cops bizarre explanation for defecation spree

It's either funny or disgusting, your call to check it out...

Apr 21, 2012 - 3:11am

Even Seeking Alpha believes in Manipulation now

A few people have covered this already, but here's the article from Seeking Alpha:

Apparently CME group is claiming that silver stocks are at all time highs? What a blatant manipulation or facts. I'm disgusted.

Apr 21, 2012 - 3:16am

Nigle Farage

Rant from Nigel Farage.

Nigel Farage: Euro Break-Up Just a Question of How

Love The Farage

Mariposa de Oro
Apr 21, 2012 - 3:34am

for Excalibur from last post

Hat Tip! 0

I'm in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. My presence on this particular island is contingent on me having a job. The place is an Army base. Though I have a house in Florida near the Kennedy Space Center, my plan is to head to Phonpei in the Federated States of Micronesia if I should find myself having to leave. The Pacific island nations have what's called the Compact of Free Association with the USA. Immigration for Americans is a bit easier to these countries. Immigration tends to be from the islands to the US. If your interested in more information, we can PM or Turd can give you my email. I prefer the email option.

Here are a couple of links. This is my employer:

Here's the link to our local scuba club:

Apr 21, 2012 - 4:12am

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