Friday Afternoon Link Dump

Fri, Apr 20, 2012 - 5:49pm

The Turd humbly submits a short reading list for the weekend.

First of all, we should discuss the latest CoT. I was all excited to see the numbers and, instead, it's mostly a non-event with no clear signals either way. Gold, as discussed here repeatedly, has seen its total OI fall under 400,000 which is down about 20% from the OI highs of late February. This past reporting week alone, total OI fell over 1% but the internals are kind of strange. Spec longs and Cartel longs both cut about 2,300 contracts while The Cartel short position increased by about 2,700. Interestingly, long and short small specs both fell by nearly 2,000. What the heck is going on here? Beat's the living daylights out of me! Here's the weirdest part: Large spec shorts declined by 7,648 or roughly 22%. It's only one indicator but, on balance, this report does not indicate that gold is ready to explode higher. Maybe sometime soon but likely not yet.

In silver, the picture is equally confusing. In stark contrast to gold, the large specs did virtually nothing. The small specs though, who were busily dumping long and short positions in gold, were busily adding long and short positions in silver. Huh? Very strange. On top of this, the EE added long and short positions, too, though the longs addition was about twice the short addition in percentage terms, bringing the net short ratio down to 1.59:1. Again, in contrast to gold, total OI surged over 6% to 121,448, all while price for the period was essentially flat. Very, very strange.

I mean, it's just weird. Total OI is the highest it has been all year but price is down $6 from its high. And, a month ago, silver OI was just 107,000 while price was roughly $32, right where it is today. So, why the tug-of-war? A 13% rise in OI while price is flat. Gonna have to think about this one for a while but something odd is going on. Just can't put my finger on it yet.

Perhaps it has something to do with this? The changing tides of registered and eligible silver are getting a lot of attention these days. Andrew Maguire told me earlier this week that he didn't think it was that big of a deal as he was once in a vault where registered vs eligible is simply delineated by a big, blue line on the floor and silver is routinely moved by forklift each way and back. Maybe that's the case but it seems that Jesse doesn't think so.

More on the silver story comes from Goldcore. (Maybe they should rename it Gold&Silvercore?)

And if you haven't watched this yet, you probably should:

Video unavailable

ZeroHedge posted this interesting compilation a few hours ago. They address the negative press that gold has gotten this week. I enjoyed reading it because I had no idea that these articles cited were even out there. The one that addresses gold OI I found to be particularly negligent as it paints a picture of declining Comex demand as an indicator of declining investment demand. What a joke! As a source, it uses a London-based analyst with Credit Suisse. The source, Cilline Bain, four years removed from university, is either hopelessly inexperienced, deliberately misleading or just plain stupid. (

Here's another fun piece on gold manipulation, this time from Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin.

And, finally, when looking for the CoT numbers at goldseek, I found this piece of TA. It's reasonably well-written and likely worth a few minutes of your time.

Alright, that's it. It's late Friday afternoon and I need a beer (or 6). It's officially springtime so I think I'll crack open either a Shiner Blonde or a Sam Adams Summer Ale. Tough choice, huh? Hang in there and keep the faith. Try to get some R&R this weekend as next week promises to be pretty volatile with the French elections, the continuing deterioration in Spain and the FOMC meeting.

See you Monday unless the beer helps to clarify the weird CoT and OI changes in silver, in which case I'll add an update to this post.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 21, 2012 - 4:17pm


is someone to be taken seriously.


Apr 21, 2012 - 4:34pm

Hobie Alter came through town

showing off his new cats. A month later a big box was delivered to the house and my dad was grinn'n. Great Dad! Course it took a lot of lawn mow'n to get what he called "surf privileges". We used to say that Lincoln didn't get all of the slaves freed.

boatman - You got mail.

Apr 21, 2012 - 4:59pm


aaaah ............olde florida.............a dream paradise for sure......

nice 3 stringer!!!!!!

a phil edwards model prerunner no doubt......

Apr 21, 2012 - 6:21pm
ClinkinKY ¤
Apr 21, 2012 - 7:17pm

@ IS7-Lost in Space

You really know how to make a guy feel old.

Plus, they've been "missing" since 1997, and yet, there hasn't been a word about this on the MSM. Another "government cover-up"

Apr 21, 2012 - 7:41pm

Thar's gold in them thar hills...

Gold rush: California's weekend warriors discover prospecting

FRESNO, Calif. – High gold prices have made prospecting the hottest new hobby for California’s weekend warriors.

With the precious metal still selling for more than $1,600 an ounce even after a mild correction, amateurs and even a few pros are hiking mountain trails and panning streams in the Golden State, enjoying nature and, with any luck, turning a profit in the process.

“People are looking for fun that doesn’t cost a whole lot of money,” said Nancy Roberts, president of Central Valley Prospectors. “But maybe you can make some money.”

Read more:
33 and a turd
Apr 21, 2012 - 7:42pm

Timmy G calls for ECB printing

Unless they have other tools they have kept hidden until now

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the IMF panel that Europe needs to be more creative and aggressive in fighting its debt crisis, using all the resources at its disposal, including the European Central Bank, the lender for the 17 nations using the common euro currency.

"The success of the next phase of the crisis response will hinge on Europe’s willingness and ability ... to apply its tools and processes creatively, flexibly and aggressively to support countries as they implement reforms and stay ahead of the markets," Geithner said Saturday.

Apr 21, 2012 - 8:12pm


Dr. Zachary Smith was a pretty cool character in the show. A good actor away from the show also.

I posted another episode over at The Speak earlier today. Help yourself to the pizza/wings/beer etc.

Apr 21, 2012 - 8:19pm

Charles Nenner

Can't believe I missed him somehow all this time. his webpage is pretty solid, and he's made some good/great calls along the way.

He has mid April as bottoms for both silver and gold. So I guess next week could be the start of something, or maybe not.

I guess time will tell.

bý the way, does anyone here use charles nenners newsletter?

Apr 21, 2012 - 8:22pm

One More Layout Pic

Thanks for all the positive feedback. Here's one more pic (added 2 more girls to tar beach). Really wanted to show a pic of the cheesecake photo shoot, but the mods wouldn't like it.

Apr 21, 2012 - 8:29pm


Pretty cool stuff! I bet your train set up is pretty spectacular.

I'm sure Gomez would agree.

The Addams Family (1964) S01E01 - Train Crash Scene
Apr 21, 2012 - 10:21pm

Interesting piece on Chris Martenson

Audio interview at top

Guy reckons the available phyz is nearly all dried up. That would maybe explain the strangeness the turd is feeling. Either that or too many brewsky's.

Would also explain dodgey comments from Bloomberg etc. Maybe getting close to TSHTF.

Apr 21, 2012 - 10:26pm

Slow night...

A parting vid for the night crew.

LIVE | 1968 | The Doors: Alabama Song; Back Door Man; Five to One; Moonlight Drive; Horse Latitudes

Apr 21, 2012 - 11:42pm

Piels Beer!

Haven't seen one of them since college. The good ole days!

Apr 21, 2012 - 11:58pm


Probably just means that all Turdites have all been forcfully invited to a FEMA camp. Oh well - if I hang around long enough I might get another first (assuming Turd is not already being cavity searched that is).

Hang on..... someone knocking at the this late hour........BRB...........DOH!


Actually - thinking about it. If phyz is getting low then QE3 might break the Comex.

Apr 22, 2012 - 12:00am

Dalwhinnie 15 year old single malt

Haven't seen that since...Ok, last night. Scary thing is someday these will be "The good ole days".

Apr 22, 2012 - 2:32am

Thanks IndigoStar7

I'll read the PDF more fully later, thanks for the link.

In skimming in now, I noticed this: "Unlike a futures exchange, where trading is based around standard contract units, settlement dates and delivery specifications, the OTC market allows flexibility. It also provides confidentiality, as transactions are conducted solely between the two principals involved."

This is what I was talking about. I am not trying to be difficult here, but when people talk about the LBMA being the main price setting mechanism, and not COMEX, I just don't understand how given the bolded phrase above. Nobody sees what anybody else is doing. Certainly not the clients, right?

I understand that London is THE main centre through which most of the world's gold, silver, platinum and palladium moves. But how does London pricing affect COMEX pricing and vice versa?

Regarding the spot, we have: "There are five members of the Gold Fixing – all of whom are Market Making Members of the LBMA. The Fixing is conducted by telephone twice each London business day at 10.30 a.m. and 3.00 p.m.Clients place orders with the dealing rooms of Fixing members, who net all orders before communicating the net interest to their representative at the Fixing. The gold price is then adjusted up and down until sell and buy orders are matched, at which point the price is declared “fixed” and all orders are executed on the basis of that price. Transparency at the Fixing is served by the fact that customers may be kept advised of price changes, together with the level of interest, while the Fixing is in progress and may cancel, increase or decrease their interest dependent upon this information."

What? How is that transparent at all? A visible exchange is transparent. Having prices cleared in real time is transparent.

I do understand that using the LBMA would be better for large buyers of physical gold and silver if they want to buy discretely, and the fact that there is no standard contract delivery size or date is also an advantage. Maybe most central bank gold that is leased or used "for market operations" moves through London due to the ability to be more discreet in the LBMA. But I still don't understand how it would be the main pricing setting mechanism if it is not an exchange, and rather a trade association. If there is no sight of the dealer or client next to you, how do you know you are getting a good price? How do members decide on a quote to give their clients?

As I see it, the futures market, priced in real time, would have to have price-setting ability because otherwise opportunity for arbitrage exists. If one can buy gold for delivery on the LBMA according to a certain fix, and get it cheaper or more expensively on COMEX, then one could short the one and go long the other and make money for zero risk.

I am getting annoyed because some people are saying the COMEX is just a playground and London is what matters for price setting. The same people are adamant that London is a trade association but don't explain how a trade association sets price before a live exchange does. Sorry, maybe I'm annoyed because I'm an idiot but I just don't get it. I am not trying to argue one way or the other, I want someone who makes this claim to explain it to me in plain language. Richard Feynman once said that if someone can't explain a theory to the average man using plain language, then the theory is bullshit (I'm paraphrasing, I don't remember the quote verbatim). So I want someone who believes COMEX doesn't matter so much for price setting, and the LBMA is really what counts to explain their reasons thusly, so that the average man can understand it.

Apr 22, 2012 - 3:31am

Good Questions, far from comprehensive answers here, but...

7118...great questions

Its a complex issue, that centres on size and the Fixes, plus is a simple function of history. Just to clarify though, the LBMA is an association of all the big ugly banks loathed in Turdland, that trade and clear 'Spot' Gold and Silver, and the COMEX is a futures market. The fact that its called 'London' is a bit irrelevant and can prove to be a distraction when trying to understanding the meaning/role of the LBMA.

some more reading material for you below. A key takeaway is that the LBMA cleared $20bn per day in 2009 alone (for sure more than that now) which is because of the massive number of forwards, swaps and general paper crapola that pass for Precious Metals trades and absolutely affect the price discovery mechanism - this is also why the likes of Jeff Christian think its fine to be 100 or 300:1 paper to silver within the price discovery mechanism - I append his own damning 'Bullion Banking Explained' piece. It is also an issue of market depth, big players always want the deepest pond (or Dark Pool!!) to swim about in. The COMEX futures market is really a speculative market dominated by different forces than the LBMA 'spot' market and generally is a bit more 'whippy' in the way it behaves due to the different kind of investor. 'Spot' is where you go for delivery of large amounts (albeit 300:1 leverage inbuilt there), you buy at spot and then have a 'wholesaler' within that system make delivery for you, which is why COMEX contracts are so rarely delivered: they just need to be ABLE to be delivered in order for that market to retain a sheen of credibility. Be clear neither the LBMA nor COMEX have credibility, hence why the upcoming Deliverable and FULLY allocated 'spot' silver receipt exchange in China could be so interesting. Given the choice between the unregulated joke that is COMEX and the 0.3% backing offered by the LBMA any trader or big physical buyer of Silver would be likely to want to get involved in a new and more transparent entity versus either of the 2 other options. This could lead to bifurcation in the price discovery mechanism as the new exchange starts to 'make the price' as it could grow exponentially in size by attracting real longs while also forcing the existing shorts elsewhere (ie London and COMEX) to unwind their paper positions.

What I have written here is far from comprehensive and may contain the odd small point of inaccuracy as fwiw I don't actually use the LBMA or COMEX but have some understanding of the differences. Strongly suggest you and other Turdites read the links below though as they make for worthy background to the subject.

from wiki:

Market size

The bulk of global trading in gold and silver is conducted on the over-the-counter (OTC) market. London is by far the largest global centre for OTC transactions followed by New York, Zurich, and Tokyo. Exchange-based trading has grown in recent years with Comex in New York and Tocom in Tokyo generating most of the activity. Gold is also traded in forms of securities, such as exchange-traded funds(ETFs), on the London, New York, Johannesburg, and Australian stock exchanges.

Although the physical market for gold and silver is distributed globally, most wholesale OTC trades are cleared through London. The average daily volume of gold and silver cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (worth $13.9 billion) and 107.6 million ounces (worth $1.1 billion) respectively. This means that an amount equal to the annual gold mine production was cleared at the LBMA every 4.4 days, and to the annual silver production every 6.2 days.[1]. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee claims that clearing data substantially understates the true amount of gold traded, due to the netting of trades in the calculation of Clearing Statistics.[2] They claim the LBMA market is $5.4 trillion a year.[3]

[edit]Account Types

[edit]Allocated Accounts

Allocated Accounts are accounts held by dealers in clients’ names on which are maintained balances of uniquely identifiable bars, plates or ingots of metal ‘allocated’ to a specific customer and segregated from other metal held in the vault. The client has full title to this metal with the dealer holding it on the client’s behalf as custodian. To avoid any doubt, metal in an allocated account does not form part of a precious metal dealer’s assets.[4]

[edit]Unallocated Accounts

Unallocated Accounts represent the most popular way of trading, settling and holding gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Transactions may be settled by credits or debits to the account while the balance represents the indebtedness between the two parties. Credit balances on the account do not entitle the creditor to specific bars of gold or silver or plates or ingots of platinum or palladium but are backed by the general stock of the precious metal dealer with whom the account is held. The client in this scenario is an unsecured creditor.[4]

[edit]Unallocated Risks

The total quantity of unallocated gold is estimated to be 15,000 tonnes at the end of 2008[5] which supports the 2,134 tonnes on average of spot gold trade through London every day representing 14.2% of the pool. This compares to average daily turnover in UK equities of between 0.34% and 0.63% for the 12 months ending September 2009.[5] While members of the LBMA provide no information on the backing for unallocated gold the improbably high turnover is suggestive they are operating a fractional reserve system where unallocated accounts are only partially backed by physical gold. Similarly to a bank run this makes LBMA unallocated gold accounts susceptible to loss if a sufficient number of market participants request delivery of physical bullion.[citation needed]


S Roche
Apr 22, 2012 - 5:05am

LBMA/Comex & Victor

Thanks Tabberto, great comments and links. Plenty of enquiring minds want to know, not only 71185208 (btw, are you an algorithm gone off reservation asking good questions like this?). There are a number of people working on a better understanding of these markets as we speak.

I have previously defended Andrew Maguire (not the he needs my help) against Victor and now I want to defend Victor (again, not that he needs my help) against all comers. Victor has a deep understanding of the precious metals market that he freely offers on his website ( ) and he regularly comments on FOFOA and The Screw Tape Files sharing his knowledge in an attempt to help others understand. Sometimes, and I have been on the receiving end, he can be a bit sharp. Part of this is the black and white nature of communication in print, and Turd has lamented that a written blog limits the nuances of communication and leaves one constantly open to attack for one line which can be taken out of the context built over many statements. This is such an instance, as Turd has explained a simple error has been made, and corrected.

I believe Victor is one of the good guys and constantly on the lookout to correct misinformation. OK, he gets exasperated at times but cut him some slack, ok? He has to deal with people like me all the time.

Apr 22, 2012 - 5:22am
Apr 22, 2012 - 5:41am

Happy Earth Day Everyone

Earth Day co-founder killed, composted girlfriend

Ira Einhorn preached against Vietnam War and violence, but had dark side

Ira Einhorn was on stage hosting the first Earth Day event at the Fairmount Park in Philadelphia on April 22, 1970. Seven years later, police raided his closet and found the "composted" body of his ex-girlfriend inside a trunk.

A self-proclaimed environmental activist, Einhorn made a name for himself among ecological groups during the 1960s and '70s by taking on the role of a tie-dye-wearing ecological guru and Philadelphia’s head hippie. With his long beard and gap-toothed smile, Einhorn — who nicknamed himself "Unicorn" because his German-Jewish last name translates to "one horn" —advocated flower power, peace and free love to his fellow students at the University of Pennsylvania. He also claimed to have helped found Earth Day.

Michael J. Maicher / Temple University Libraries Ira Einhorn was the master of ceremonies at the first Earth Day rally on April 22, 1970.

Read more:

Apr 22, 2012 - 5:51am

Sunday Morning Tune

"Dog Eater" by David Cole and Boris Zelkin
Tabberto S Roche
Apr 22, 2012 - 5:53am

Accepted S Roche

I agree with you and have enjoyed reading much of what Victor has to say on TFMR....but someone had to stand up and tell him to stop acting like a big baby and the arbiter on high of all that is true and worthy. I don't know why he feels the need to behave like a Parking Enforcement Officer with a bad hangover. Maybe someone put itching powder in his boxer shorts, but it's just unnecessary and also may worry the less informed as he sounds so dogmatic.

That is the last I will say on the subject - unless he chooses to have yet another crack at Andy that is. I can also agree with you that I too would recommend people check out Victor's blog, it is interesting technical stuff for the Turdite keen to dig into the real detail of our market. I also probably owe Victor an apology for sounding rather pompous, as is often the case, it takes one to to know one...

Apr 22, 2012 - 5:56am

quiet here because of hockey, hockey, nap

But Go Sens Go again - the dream lives on.

I often also think that if someone can't explain something clearly they don't understand it - but not when the system is deliberately designed to be murky. Try simply explaining how the US gov't creates money - i.e who prints the bills, how do they get auctioned, who are primary buyers, etc. I have read most of the LBMA website, I have delved in to delivery or non-delivery rules on the Comex, and it is obvious that many lawyers have been involved - and sorry to any nice lawyers out there - but lawyers feed off complex language. It is an old trick of any guild. And bankers are an ancient guild and don't like the common people knowing what they are doing.

I like understanding what I read, but when it isn't meant to be understood, it gets a little weird. Just to pick on climate because it is earth day, have you ever tried to actually read the controversial 'hockey stick' paper by Mann, or followed the controversy over statistical methods? Good god - nothing like a technical academic argument to get the juices flowing.

S Roche - but did you actually read victor's post? That wasn't a bit sharp - that was trying to destroy a reputation. And as I pointed out above, even the LBMA refers to the vaults as 'LBMA vaults' so it wasn't even an error. Except for being in the singular.

Apr 22, 2012 - 6:05am

ClinkinKY - re Earth Day

I am celebrating Earth Day by having an MRI. It seems so down to earth, and natural.

At least the co-founder of this wonderful day composted his girl-friend - I would hate to think he just threw her out. Walked the walk so to speak.

ClinkinKY George Clooney
Apr 22, 2012 - 6:11am

@ Xty

I have the book "The Unicorn Killer" if you'd like to read it, before I compost it. (Seriously, I have the book)

Apr 22, 2012 - 6:52am

Apparently, Bailouts Are "Safer" Than Guns

BREAKING: Bank of America Reportedly Drops Gun Company for Political Reasons

The reported reason: they simply do not want to be associated with gun companies.

Bailout recipient Bank of America has severed relations with an American company because of a reported bias against their industry. McMillan Group International released an extraordinary statement on Facebook regarding the incident:

McMillan Fiberglass Stocks, McMillan Firearms Manufacturing, McMillan Group International have been collectively banking with Bank of America for 12 years. Today Mr. Ray Fox, Senior Vice President, Market Manager, Business Banking, Global Commercial Banking came to my office. He scheduled the meeting as an “account analysis” meeting in order to evaluate the two lines of credit we have with them. He spent five minutes talking about how McMillan has changed in the last five years and have become more of a firearms manufacturer than a supplier of accessories.

At this point I interrupted him and asked “Can I possible save you some time so that you don’t waste your breath? What you are going to tell me is that because we are in the firearms manufacturing business you no longer what my business.”

“That is correct” he says.

I replied “That is okay, we will move our accounts as soon as possible. We can find a Second Amendment friendly bank that will be glad to have our business. You won’t mind if I tell the NRA, SCI and everyone one I know that BofA is not firearms industry friendly?”

Read more:

Apr 22, 2012 - 7:19am

Gold and silver weak because?

Leeb said that many are expecting a 2008 like crash caused from Europe. He thinks that gold could take a big hit but be ready to buy with both hands because it will rocket back .its probably at that time we will see Qe3,4,5? Or? They could start dumping a lot more funny money on it very soon to prevent a crash.. Got a coin to flip?

Apr 22, 2012 - 7:50am

Groaner - how was the holiday? and the presses are printing!

IMF says secures $320 billion in drive for new funds

(Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday it had raised $320 billion so far in a bid to boost its firepower to deal with the euro zone debt crisis, with Poland and Switzerland joining the effort.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said she had received commitments of $34 billion on Wednesday, including $8 billion from Poland and "a substantial amount" from Switzerland.

"Ensuring that the Fund has sufficient resources to tackle crises and to promote global economic stability is in the interests of all our members," she said in a statement.

Lagarde is hoping to secure at least $400 billion in commitments from finance officials from around the globe, who meet this week in Washington under the auspices of the Group of 20 nations and the IMF and World Bank.

The issue has taken on new urgency given increased borrowing costs in Spain and Italy that have reignited fears the euro zone crisis could flare again, and that the fallout could imperil the global economic recovery.

The United States has declined to provide fresh funds, saying it had done its part by ensuring dollar liquidity for banks in Europe, but it threw its weight behind the fundraising effort on Wednesday.

"We're actually very supportive of that process and we'll be very supportive of it this week," U.S. Treasury Timothy Geithner said, avoiding past rhetoric about Europe needing to do more first to erect its own financial firewall....

This can only mean more inflation - and I think what Geitner might be actually saying is that he needs to print money at home, in equal amounts to what Europe prints, so our currencies can deflate together. And also, I believe the Fed will just give them money under the table. I believe there are many more dollars out there than we know about.

Apr 22, 2012 - 7:53am

ClinkinKY - re Earth Day and composting books

We once actually had a book burning at my parent's cottage - we couldn't give them away, and we weren't going to carry them out. But my brothers and I, raised in academia, felt very badly about what we were doing. So we gave each book a chance - if the first page made us laugh, we kept it - if it mentioned breasts, we threw it out. Of course, if it made us laugh and mentioned breasts, it was given a place of honour.

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