Friday Afternoon Link Dump

Fri, Apr 20, 2012 - 5:49pm

The Turd humbly submits a short reading list for the weekend.

First of all, we should discuss the latest CoT. I was all excited to see the numbers and, instead, it's mostly a non-event with no clear signals either way. Gold, as discussed here repeatedly, has seen its total OI fall under 400,000 which is down about 20% from the OI highs of late February. This past reporting week alone, total OI fell over 1% but the internals are kind of strange. Spec longs and Cartel longs both cut about 2,300 contracts while The Cartel short position increased by about 2,700. Interestingly, long and short small specs both fell by nearly 2,000. What the heck is going on here? Beat's the living daylights out of me! Here's the weirdest part: Large spec shorts declined by 7,648 or roughly 22%. It's only one indicator but, on balance, this report does not indicate that gold is ready to explode higher. Maybe sometime soon but likely not yet.

In silver, the picture is equally confusing. In stark contrast to gold, the large specs did virtually nothing. The small specs though, who were busily dumping long and short positions in gold, were busily adding long and short positions in silver. Huh? Very strange. On top of this, the EE added long and short positions, too, though the longs addition was about twice the short addition in percentage terms, bringing the net short ratio down to 1.59:1. Again, in contrast to gold, total OI surged over 6% to 121,448, all while price for the period was essentially flat. Very, very strange.

I mean, it's just weird. Total OI is the highest it has been all year but price is down $6 from its high. And, a month ago, silver OI was just 107,000 while price was roughly $32, right where it is today. So, why the tug-of-war? A 13% rise in OI while price is flat. Gonna have to think about this one for a while but something odd is going on. Just can't put my finger on it yet.

Perhaps it has something to do with this? The changing tides of registered and eligible silver are getting a lot of attention these days. Andrew Maguire told me earlier this week that he didn't think it was that big of a deal as he was once in a vault where registered vs eligible is simply delineated by a big, blue line on the floor and silver is routinely moved by forklift each way and back. Maybe that's the case but it seems that Jesse doesn't think so.

More on the silver story comes from Goldcore. (Maybe they should rename it Gold&Silvercore?)

And if you haven't watched this yet, you probably should:

Video unavailable

ZeroHedge posted this interesting compilation a few hours ago. They address the negative press that gold has gotten this week. I enjoyed reading it because I had no idea that these articles cited were even out there. The one that addresses gold OI I found to be particularly negligent as it paints a picture of declining Comex demand as an indicator of declining investment demand. What a joke! As a source, it uses a London-based analyst with Credit Suisse. The source, Cilline Bain, four years removed from university, is either hopelessly inexperienced, deliberately misleading or just plain stupid. (

Here's another fun piece on gold manipulation, this time from Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin.

And, finally, when looking for the CoT numbers at goldseek, I found this piece of TA. It's reasonably well-written and likely worth a few minutes of your time.

Alright, that's it. It's late Friday afternoon and I need a beer (or 6). It's officially springtime so I think I'll crack open either a Shiner Blonde or a Sam Adams Summer Ale. Tough choice, huh? Hang in there and keep the faith. Try to get some R&R this weekend as next week promises to be pretty volatile with the French elections, the continuing deterioration in Spain and the FOMC meeting.

See you Monday unless the beer helps to clarify the weird CoT and OI changes in silver, in which case I'll add an update to this post.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 20, 2012 - 10:29pm

Poor Turd,

Shiner or Sam Adams? No good micro breweries in your area?

Apr 20, 2012 - 10:32pm

An Interesting Series on

the American Empire history and today. This is from part 10. He has an interesting perspective. The comments, as here, are worth reading too.

.....and a domestic political system in which a fantastically bloated executive branch headed by an imperial presidency keeps the forms of constitutional government in place, while arrogating to itself most of the functions originally exercised by Congress, and most of the rights originally left to the states and the people. That’s where we are today—in the aging, increasingly brittle, effectively bankrupt, but still immensely powerful global empire of the United States of America.

That’s the empire that is sinking into its twilight as I write these words, and that faces dismemberment and dissolution in the decades ahead.

Apr 20, 2012 - 10:46pm
Apr 20, 2012 - 11:09pm

Shiner bock story for ya!

About fifteen years ago I was in a helo aquatic rescue coarse outside of Austin. Some of the dudes were from Boston or some such place with funny accents from along way from here. Anyway, after the week of training, they were drinking the piss out of Shiner Bock. I inquired as to the love for it. They stated two years prior they were down doing the same course and had it. They loved it. They went home and could not get it. At that time it wasn't being sold outside of Texas. This time they came down with some other dudes so they could split gas and load up the bed of a pick up to drive a few cases back up north. True to their word, the bed was loaded up with cases of Shiner Boch. I mean the bed ,single stack deep, loaded with luggage on top hiding it. I mentioned that might be against some state laws concerning transporting. They laughed and said yep, that's why this guys the cop! ( the rest were firemen) Good times! I have wondered what they think of all the new varieties of Shiner. I like the Hefe. Man, what a different world today from then. Cheers Turdland! This Buds for you. Gulp Stay safe, Hondo

Apr 20, 2012 - 11:15pm


I'm no hockey fan but this makes me laugh. Mods feel free to remove if too inappropriate.

Apr 20, 2012 - 11:23pm

I got a question (about Miners)...

With all this talk about nothing, I've actually got a question about something. Something pretty important to me and probably some other 'newcomers' around here.

Ok, so it has to do with PM Mining stocks. I have never gotten into stocks (in terms of buy/sell) but have been interested over the last few years about getting into them. I never knew what to get into as an investment period, So I recently started with PHYSICAL PM's [good move I think and, besides, Who doesn't love looking at shiny things? : ) ]. This is all good and well for the long term and I will continue to add to the stack (given I find that stack in the lake it fell into), but I am interested in possibly buying into some miner shares as to me it seems right now they are pretty 'cheap' compared to where they have been before and where they might go? Am I right in this conclusion? I know I see everyone on here bitching about how their miners are in the trash, and not performing but it seems like for me, it maybe a good time to get in? Im not talking like 10's of $1000's but a few thousand to break in and play around with I guess. This will also allow me to learn about stocks and how that market operates a lot more by getting my feet wet (just like in the physical realm).

Anyway so onto the next part of my question... How and what tool(s) should I use to trade these Miner stocks. I finally figured out about the XAU index (btw, is this ALL the miner's with stock options??) and now can see what my options are for buying but I don't really know where to start. And by start im talking about even what platform to trade on. Also, what Miner stocks should I possibly look into buying and why?

Thanks guys! Looking forward to hearing your answers!


Apr 20, 2012 - 11:39pm

Inventory buildup in silver

The various stories and echo chamber repeats of the inventory buildup in silver all seem to be sourced to the Thompson Reuters GFMS World Silver Survey 2012, which can be yours for a mere GBP130 (I'd rather take the 5-6 silver Eagles for the money ;-)).

"Interestingly CIBC and BMO both put out sector notes on silver yesterday calling the silver price and related equities lower based on the ‘interestingly collated’ supply demand assumptions of GFMS who, as ever, say silver is in oversupply going forwards. "

It looks the the same old same old. Fabrication - (mine supply + scrap recycling) leaves a surplus. This inferred surplus is supposed to represent investment and according to some sources is necessary to maintain prices.

SRSRocco is planning a more thorough article than the above note.

Apr 21, 2012 - 12:33am

Bloomberg is full of it

I can't believe that a "respected" publisher like Bloomberg does not know the difference between registered silver and eligible silver. That which is available for immediate delivery is DOWN- DOWN DOWN DOWN!!!! Which can be seen here:

June 2008 inventory: 90 million ounces

Today: 29 million ounces.

But Louie, you are looking at long term trends, they are looking a the short-term. Again BS- shorten the chart down to just the last 12 months, or even 2012. DOWN DOWN DOWN.

So, in my opinion, Bloomberg is intentionally trying to manipulate silver down.

I call BS.

Apr 21, 2012 - 12:50am

What tools are avalible to Bernanke

Does anyone remember a couple of weeks ago when we were talking about how the Bernak talks one way, then 2 days later another Fed member comes out and says something opposite?

What tools does the Bernak have left in his toolbox to help get Obama re-elected? If he announces QE3 it might be politically unpopular at election time. If he does nothing, it might be so hard to lie about the economy that people start to notice and stop trusting their government (and the USD). What is a central banker to do? The only thing the EE has left is words. MOPE is in full swing.

Gold and silver are being talked down by BS. All the usual suspects, and a couple new ones, are being trotted out to discourage people from pouring money into PMs & cash. The volume of exchanges in the equity markets is decreasing as people pull money out of the markets and put it into their closets.

Friends, now is he time to buy.

Apr 21, 2012 - 12:58am

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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